Ranking the 30 most expensive transfers of the summer window

What makes a transfer successful? Is it the number of trophies a team win while a player is there? The number of goals they score? The number of clean sheets? Some ineffable kind of eye-test-driven satisfaction? Or, simply, just how often they play?

Among those options, I’d side with the last one. Club-record transfers play, on average, about only 50% of the available minutes for their new teams. A successful transfer, then, might just be a player who starts more than half of the team’s matches. A low bar, sure, but if you spend a lot of money on a player and they play that often, you’re actually gaining ground on your rivals.

Of course, that doesn’t account for the fee the team paid. And it also ignores the player’s age and potential for them to be moved to another team for another fee, which could then be reinvested into the squad.

Earlier this summer — with the help of NFL analyst Kevin Cole — I came up with another way of judging transfer success: look at a player’s estimated market value a year after they are signed and compare it to the fee the club had to pay. We used this to judge the 100 biggest transfers in the men’s game from the previous four seasons, and now we can use it to project the biggest from the window that just closed.

How are the 30 priciest moves of the summer likely to age? Let’s rank them, from best to worst.

But first, an explanation of our transfer value rankings

With the piece I wrote in July, we looked at the 25 most expensive transfers in each of the past four seasons. Kevin then ran a basic linear regression to determine which factors seemed to predict a market value higher than the initial transfer fee a year later and how much predictive power each factor had.

Although central midfielders, on average, saw a nearly 10% increase in value after a year, overall we didn’t find position to be a statistically significant factor. To varying degrees, a lower age, a lower transfer fee, and a higher market value at the time of the transfer made it more likely there was an increase in value after a year. Then, we can take those factors and create a formula to predict an increase or decrease in value for any big transfer.

In other words: a year from now, is a player’s market value likely to be higher or lower than their transfer fee, and by how much?

This is a basic analysis, and it doesn’t account for the extra costs of player wages, which can vary significantly. Plus, we’re using estimated numbers from Transfermarkt to come up with the market values and the fees, which often contain add-ons.

However, studies have found that Transfermarkt values tend to be pretty close to true player value on average, and it also lets us harness the power of the wisdom of the crowds: The market values on the site are a pretty good representation of what the world thinks of a player. At least based on our analysis, when teams have paid significantly more than the Transfermarkt value for a player, those moves have tended to not work out.

This is a simple model and it will miss out on important, specific context for many individual deals. But on the whole, it should give us a pretty good sense of the smart and the silly moves from the summer. Now, to the rankings of the 30 most expensive moves across Europe’s “Big Five” top leagues …

1. Endrick, FW, Palmeiras to Real Madrid

Age (at the time of the deal): 18
Market value (at the time of the deal): €60m
Transfer fee: €47.5m
Projected value change: 54.8% increase

I’m still somewhat skeptical of current-day Endrick. He played a full 90-minute game for a Brazil team that dominated possession and were a man up for a significant portion of the quarterfinal match against Uruguay in the Copa America. And during those 90 minutes, he completed two passes — one of which was the kickoff.

And yet, he still was still trusted enough to start a knockout game for Brazil as a teenager. The same goes for Real Madrid’s decision to acquire him for an initial €47.5m (rising to €72m). This isn’t a Lamine Yamal situation, one where the teenager is already one of the best players in the world, but there’s still so much room for Endrick to improve and his fee was still well below the estimated market value.

2. João Neves, CM, Benfica to PSG

Age: 19
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €59.92m
Projected value change: 29.8% increase

3. Leny Yoro, CB, Lille to Manchester United

Age: 18
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €62m
Projected value change: 27.8% increase

You could look at the fee paid for both Yoro and Neves and think, “Oh boy, isn’t that a lot of money for a couple of guys who’ve barely played any professional soccer?” And you would be right to think that — but at least in recent memory, young players acquired for at-or-slightly-above their market value have still mostly trended upward in value.

Age is, by far, the most powerful predictor here because a) these players have a ton of room to improve, and b) when a young player outperforms expectations and becomes a star in their early 20s, that means you have a player who’s likely to provide world-class performance for more than a decade. If you nab a 26-year-old late-bloomer who suddenly makes the leap, you’d still expect only a few more seasons of high-level play.

4. Julián Álvarez, FW, Manchester City to Atletico Madrid

Age: 24
Market value: €90m
Transfer fee: €75m
Projected value change: 22.7% increase

A rarity: The most expensive deal of the window also looks like one of the best. Alvarez is entering his prime and has been a key contributor to arguably the best club and national teams in the world.

We haven’t seen him carry the load as a team’s No. 1 attacking option — either for Manchester City or Argentina — but there’s a decent chance Atletico just nabbed one of the best forwards in the world for way less than one of these players would typically cost. It certainly seems as if Atletico benefitted from Pep Guardiola’s eagerness to move on from any player who wasn’t fully committed to the club.

5. Matthijs de Ligt, CB, Bayern Munich to Manchester United

Age: 25
Market value: €65m
Transfer fee: €45m
Projected value change: 22.4% increase

6. Joshua Zirkzee, FW, Bologna to Manchester United

Age: 23
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €42.5m
Projected value change: 20.3% increase

Although Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag claims he needs to be a teenage wizard-orphan to get his team functioning at a high level, this summer’s approach — mid-tier fees for young players — really should give him plenty to work with. More than half of the players who started in the 3-0 loss to Liverpool were signed before Ten Hag arrived. How many more excuses can he come up with?

7. Michael Olise, AM/FW, Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich

Age: 22
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €53m
Projected value change: 20% increase

8. Riccardo Calafiori, LB/CB, Bologna to Arsenal

Age: 22
Market value: €45m
Transfer fee: €45m
Projected value change: 17.8% increase

The going rate for a 22-year-old still projects to be a pretty good deal.

9. Archie Gray, RB/CM, Leeds United to Tottenham

Age: 18
Market value: €18m
Transfer fee: €41.3m
Projected value change: 15.4% increase

10. Conor Gallagher, CM, Chelsea to Atletico Madrid

Age: 24
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €42m
Projected value change: 15%

11. Douglas Luiz, CM, Aston Villa to Juventus

Age: 26
Market value: €70m
Transfer fee: €51.5m
Projected value change: 15%

Last week, I wrote about how specialist defensive midfielders had been overvalued in recent windows while central midfielders — the guys who do a little bit of everything — had become undervalued. The latter continued to be true this summer.

12. Yankuba Minteh, AM/FW, Newcastle to Brighton

Age: 19
Market value: €16m
Transfer fee: €35m
Projected value change: 14.3% increase

13. Désiré Doué, AM/FW, Rennes to PSG

Age: 19
Market value: €30m
Transfer fee: €50m
Projected value change: 13.2% increase

Minteh, who put up 10 goals and six assists in 27 games for Feyenoord in the Eredivisie last season as a teenager, was probably my favorite signing of the summer. It’s funny to see arguably the savviest club in the world and the one owned by Qatar make similar moves, though.

One goes for the under-the-radar player from a club, Newcastle, that had to raise funds to comply with the Premier League’s financial regulations. The other pays big to sign the hottest new French prospect in Doué. And yet, both moves project similarly well.

14. Ian Maatsen, LB, Chelsea to Aston Villa

Age: 22
Market value: €40m
Transfer fee: €44.5m
Projected value change: 12.9% increase

Thus ends our list of players who project for at least a 10% increase by this time next season. What you might have noticed: that includes two players whom Chelsea let go and none they brought in.

15. Amadou Onana, CM, Everton to Aston Villa

Age: 22
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €59.4m
Projected value change: 7.5% increase

16. Manuel Ugarte, DM, PSG to Manchester United

Age: 23
Market value: €45m
Transfer fee: €50m
Projected value change: 6.5% increase

It was tragically fitting, I guess, that Ugarte was unveiled at Old Trafford on the day the guy he’s replacing, Casemiro, had maybe the worst game of his career. Though Ugarte can’t be any worse, I’m not sure how much he’ll solve the in-possession problems Casemiro contributed to against Liverpool. Ugarte is an active ball-winner but part of the reason he’s not at PSG anymore is that he still hasn’t shown the ability to pass at a high level.

17. Evanilson, FW, Porto to Bournemouth

Age: 24
Market value: €35m
Transfer fee: €37m
Projected value change: 4% increase

18. Willian Pacho, CB, Eintracht Frankfurt to PSG

Age: 22
Market value: €35m
Transfer fee: €50m
Projected value change: 1.3% increase

19. Pedro Neto, FW, Wolverhampton to Chelsea

Age: 24
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €60m
Projected value change: 0.7% increase

Herein lies the problem I, and many others, have with this move. Chelsea paid a net-neutral rate for a player with Neto’s profile. That would be fine if you were missing one more depth piece or needed someone who you know would play. But, well, Chelsea have approximately 300 other wingers on their roster, and Neto has started 37 games … over the previous three Premier League seasons combined.

20. Alessandro Buongiorno, CB, Torino to Napoli

Age: 25
Market value: €35m
Transfer fee: €35m
Projected value change: 0.4% increase

We have found what the model estimates to be almost an exact average transfer: a 25-year-old whose fee is the same as his market value.

21. Dani Olmo, AM, RB Leipzig to Barcelona

Age: 26
Market value: €60m
Transfer fee: €55m
Projected value change: 0.1% increase

Take the Neto section, replace “wingers” with “attacking midfielders,” keep the part about the injury history, and you have my analysis of this move.

22. Robin Le Normand, CB, Real Sociedad to Atletico Madrid

Age: 27
Market value: €40m
Transfer fee: €34.5m
Projected value change: 5.2% decrease

Our first negative projection shows the importance of age. Even with a transfer fee a decent amount below current market value, Le Normand projects to decline because he’s already into his late prime years.

23. Elliot Anderson, CM, Newcastle to Nottingham Forest

Age: 21
Market value: €15m
Transfer fee: €41.2m
Projected value change: 5.2% decrease

24. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, CM, Leicester City to Chelsea

Age: 25
Market value: €30m
Transfer fee: €35.4m
Projected value change: 5.5% decrease

Reasonable overpays — transfer fee higher than current market value — can still project well pretty much right up until you reach age 25. There’s just not much upside to a move like this.

25. Teun Koopmeiners, CM, Atalanta to Juventus

Age: 26
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €54.7m
Projected value change: 10.6% decrease

Just so we’re clear: Though the model heavily favors signing younger players, that’s not always the case. That, too, should be the general approach for most clubs, given that we know most professionals have their peak years between the ages of 24 and 28. But you can still find value from certain older players, too.

Take 27-year-old Federico Chiesa, whom Juventus sent to Liverpool late in the window. Since he was on the last year of his contract and Juve were desperate to raise funds with only a few days left of the transfer market, Liverpool acquired a player with a €35m market value for €12m. That projects for a 14.1% increase, which would rank right between two 19-year-old wingers on these rankings.

26. Georginio Rutter, AM/FW, Leeds to Brighton

Age: 22
Market value: €18m
Transfer fee: €46.7m
Projected value change: 13.7% decrease

If you think this model is being too optimistic about young players, consider Rutter. Leeds paid €40.5m to acquire him from Hoffenheim in the middle of the 2022-23 season. He was supposed to help them avoid relegation and become their next star. Instead, he started one game and Leeds finished in the bottom three. Rutter, then, had a good-not-great season in the Championship last season — and Leeds were still able to make a €5m profit by sending him to Brighton.

27. João Félix, AM/FW, Atletico Madrid to Chelsea

Age: 24
Market value: €30m
Transfer fee: €52m
Projected value change: 18% decrease

The model views a move for the talented-but-disliked-by-all-of-his-previous-coaches Felix as a good bet — but only at his market value. Chelsea, as always, went above and beyond that number.

28. João Palhinha, DM, Fulham to Bayern Munich

Age: 29
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €51m
Projected value change: 18.4% decrease

The market for defensive midfielders is going to cause a global recession.

29. Max Kilman, CB, Wolves to West Ham

Age: 27
Market value: €32m
Transfer fee: €47.5m
Projected value change: 28.5% decrease

What happens when you let your new manager sign one of his former players? You almost come in last place on this list.

30. Dominic Solanke, ST, Bournemouth to Tottenham

Age: 26
Market value: €40m
Transfer fee: €64.3m
Projected value change: 32.3% decrease