January transfers all 20 Premier League teams should make

The January transfer window is mostly a bad idea.

Over the summer, there are no standings, and everyone has time to find new players. In January, very real stakes have been established. Some teams are fighting relegation, while others have slipped into a chase for a Champions League spot, and a select few get to take part in a title race.

So not only is the downside to losing one of your best players clear — get relegated, miss the Champions League, lose the title — but since the window is so short and almost everyone else feels some version of this pressure, too, it’s even harder to find a replacement. On top of that, any team that really wants to sign a new player in January is, by definition, desperate. They want to avoid relegation, finish in the Champions League spots, or win the league.

Nobody wants to sell (supply!), and the teams that want to buy really want to buy (demand!), so January transfers tend to cost about 20% more than the same moves would over the summer. In a strange way, the teams best-positioned in January are the ones who aren’t at risk of relegation but also can’t realistically win anything, either. In other words, the teams that can afford to sell.

But, well, no one wants to read about which teams should sell this January — almost everyone wants to read about what new player could join their favorite team. So, ahead of the window opening, let’s run through all 20 Premier League teams, see what their biggest needs are, then try to connect them with a team that’s in a position to let one of their best players leave and pick the player they should sign.

Tier 1: The title contenders

Liverpool: Another holding midfielder

The biggest need here might actually be “left back.” While Andy Robertson’s attacking output still remains fantastic, he has become a defensive liability. I’ve written about how athletic players age worse than skilled players, and Robertson certainly seems like an example of the former. It was one thing for him to get cooked by Bukayo Saka for the opening goal in the 1-1 draw with Arsenal; it’s another thing to get roasted by Real Madrid’s 33-year-old makeshift right back, Lucas Vázquez.

It would seem like the team might want one of these “elbow back” type of players — the kind of hybrid center back/fullback that pinches in and aids in ball progression instead of bombing down the wing. But (1) left-footed versions of these players are extremely rare, and (2) this would also seem to hinge on whether Trent Alexander-Arnold signs a new contract. So, maybe not the move for January.

Instead, the biggest area in need of improvement in the immediate and long term seems like “holding midfield” depth. Ryan Gravenberch has been a revelation this season, but he has played nearly all of the league minutes thus far, and he has never come close to playing that many minutes yet in his career. Liverpool manager Arne Slot doesn’t trust Wataru Endo to play valuable minutes, and the effort to add Real Sociedad’s Martín Zubimendi over the summer suggests the clubs see this as an area of need.

To try to identify an option for most teams in the league, we’re going to use Michael Imburgio’s DAVIES model, which values players based on their age, their role, and the overall value of everything they do with the ball. By looking at each player’s statistical profile, the model is also able to separate players into one of 19 different roles. However, there aren’t many other players who fit into Gravenberch’s role and provide most of their value through dribbling and passing, so perhaps we look for someone in Zubimendi’s role instead?

Among players classified as “playmaking deep midfielders” by DAVIES, only a handful of other guys rate better than Stuttgart’s 23-year-old Angelo Stiller (valued at €30 million on Transfermarkt). Although they’re in the Champions League, Stuttgart are stuck in midtable of the Bundesliga.

Chelsea: You already have enough players

Coming into this season, Chelsea’s goal was to finish top four, and barring a sudden collapse, that is going to happen.

They have an outside shot at the title — and winning a title is the whole point of this thing — but given the squad size and potential financial limitations facing them in the future, I’m not sure this team needs to chase after a win-now signing, especially given the meager success rate of January signings. They also don’t need to chase depth like Liverpool might because, again, they have a massive squad.

On top of all of that, they’re the youngest team in the league on average by nearly two years. This team should get better — without adding anyone new.

Arsenal: A replacement and support for Saka

In terms of immediately improving the starting 11, a replacement for the all-but-washed-up Thomas Partey in midfield is the obvious move. He has shockingly been one of the club’s most-used players after falling out of favor last season while the team ascended to new heights.

However, the recent injury to Bukayo Saka speaks to a more immediate need: both in replacing Arsenal’s best player, Saka, and lessening the minutes load on his legs. He has played at least 75% of the league minutes in each of the past five seasons. Also, he’s 23. It’s not just that Arsenal need someone to play when Saka is hurt — they need someone to play so Saka doesn’t get hurt.

The problem with teams at Arsenal’s level, of course, is that it’s really hard to find someone who would be good enough to improve the squad. To my mind, Arsenal and Liverpool are currently the two best teams in the world. At the same time, Arsenal’s chance creation from open play has been midtable quality so far, so maybe there’s a wider group of attackers out there who could help this team.

I would give Brentford a call and check in on the availability of 25-year-old Bryan Mbeumo (€50 million on Transfermarkt). He’s, by far, Brentford’s best player, so the Bees might worry about his departure tanking their results, but relegation is still so far away. Perhaps they’d let Mbeumo leave for a premium, and then worry about replacing him over the summer. For Arsenal, he could slide in for Saka and also play with him once he’s back.

Tier 2: The race for fourth — and fifth!

Nottingham Forest: A goalkeeper

The easiest path to immediate improvement for the surprise team of the season: get someone who can stop shots. Per the site FBref’s numbers, Matz Sels has allowed nearly 20 goals more than you’d expect from the average goalkeeper over the past six-plus seasons. He was nearly eight goals below average for Forest last year and hasn’t been much better this season.

Yehvann Diouf (25 years old, €9 million on Transfermarkt) has been one of the better shot stoppers in Europe this season for Reims, who are currently stuck in that no man’s land in Ligue 1 where they’re neither likely to make the Champions League nor be relegated.

Aston Villa: A third attacker

I was going to suggest finding a backup for Youri Tielemans, who has played almost every minute in the Premier League this season and has completed nearly double as many progressive passes as any of his teammates. But the market for playmaking deep midfielders is pretty thin — most teams that have one are already competing for something.

Instead, Villa just need a third guy to provide some attacking oomph. Ollie Watkins and Jhon Durán are the only players providing above-average production around the goal, and it remains to be seen if they can consistently play together. Leon Bailey had a career year last season but hasn’t been able to replicate it this year. And while Morgan Rogers is a useful player, he doesn’t yet have the production around goal you’d want from someone who is frequently your second attacker.

The financial situation at Villa is tight because of all the money they’ve recently invested into the club. But in LaLiga, Abde Ezzalzouli (23 years old, €12 million) is having a bit of a breakout season that’s gone unnoticed because the shots haven’t turned into goals just yet. Real Betis aren’t realistically in contention for the Champions League or relegation, either.

Manchester City: A midfield revamp

In the final of the Euros, when Rodri went off injured for Spain, Martín Zubimendi came on the eventual Ballon d’Or winner. So, why not repeat the trick again?

Rodri is essentially irreplaceable. It’s not all down to him, but I can’t remember the last time a player got injured and my estimation of him almost immediately skyrocketed. The Spaniard clearly covered up so many of Man City’s weaknesses all on his own, and there isn’t another player in the world who can do that. Frankly, their decline has been so sudden that I’m wondering if there has ever been another player, since the sport broke off from rugby and American football in the 19th century, who would’ve been able to replace him.

One of the clearest issues without Rodri is in transition. Whenever City turn the ball over, it’s essentially a free run at goal for the other team. And I think, in turn, City are playing much more tentatively when they have the ball because they know what kind of disaster lurks behind any change in possession. Most of this can be pinned on the midfield, where the likes of Mateo Kovacic, Ilkay Gündogan, and Rico Lewis are just getting trampled, game after game.

The midfield needs a total revamp, and Zubimendi (25 years old, €60 million) feels like a good place to start. He’s maybe a little older than you’d want, but his possession style fits the Guardiola mold and he has the kind of off-ball positional sense that is completely lacking from the current City midfield. As an added bonus, you’d be signing a player that Liverpool tried really hard to sign last summer. He opted to stay with his boyhood club — living in San Sebastian instead of Liverpool … can you blame him? — but Real Sociedad are likely going to be stuck in the midtable for the rest of the season.

AFC Bournemouth: A little more creativity

Bournemouth are one of the best attacking teams in the Premier League, and Bournemouth are one of the best defending teams in the Premier League. They’ve gone toe-to-toe with pretty much every big club, and they have a genuine shot at finishing in the top four or top five.

While we’re here, most projections have the Premier League with over a 90% chance of landing a fifth Champions League spot for next season, so that has expanded our purview of teams that might want to try to immediately improve.

Not too many changes here.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England and 🇮🇹 Italy still favoured for Top 2.

🔹 Meanwhile 🇵🇹 Portugal with a bad week, loses some ground
🔹 Which is filled by 🇪🇸 Spain, who had a good week and gained some ground on England and Italy. pic.twitter.com/JKlqzZO5x7

— Nils Mackay (@NilsMackay) December 13, 2024

Anyway, Bournemouth have performed so well by encouraging high-event matches with tons of possessions. They’ve thrived amidst the chaos, and very few other teams have been able to handle it.

However, I wonder whether the league will adjust and start to put the onus on the Cherries to hold possession and break down stiffer defenses. These changes don’t often happen as quickly as they should — see: Newcastle’s 2022-23 season — but sometimes upstart teams aren’t recognized for their true level of quality and opponents don’t show them enough respect.

If the adjustment happens, I could see them struggling to create chances. They’ve essentially taken a creator-by-committee approach to goals, with a bunch of players chipping in with between two and four assists. But when the spaces get tighter, you have to start to rely on individual creativity and passing vision a bit more.

It’s a bit of a risk, but I wonder whether they could check in with PSV on the availability of American Malik Tillman (22 years old, €30 million). His passing numbers have stayed somewhat stable from the Eredivisie to the Champions League this season. And PSV are so good and so far ahead in their own league already that maybe they could be convinced to let Tillman go.

Newcastle United: Anyone?

Newcastle are in the strangely enviable position of being (A) the richest team in the history of professional sports, and (B) able to improve just about every position on their roster.

By most metrics, Eddie Howe’s team grades out as dead average. The performances aren’t exactly like that; there’s a lot more volatility from week to week — just ask Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City. But it all comes out in the wash.

And really, outside of center forward with Alexander Isak and central midfield with Bruno Guimarães, there isn’t anywhere else on the roster that couldn’t be upgraded. Newcastle are a team with Champions League-level resources, but only a handful of Champions League-level players.

Here we’ll land them one of the higher-rated DAVIES players under the age of 24 and on a team that would be open to selling. Real quick: Eintracht Frankfurt’s Omar Marmoush is having an out-of-this world season, he’s only 25, and well, he plays for Eintracht Frankfurt. But I’d be shocked if they let him go — they’re currently in third in the Bundesliga, and the offers will still be there this summer.

Marmoush doesn’t fit the mold here, and there are a bunch of other players who wouldn’t be in Champions League contention in previous seasons but now are because of the expanded competition. That might suppress the activity we see this January. So, how about a move for Girona’s fullback/center back Arnau Martínez (21 years old, €10 million)?

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Tier 3: ‘Don’t do anything stupid’ (or ‘Don’t do anything, stupid’)

After Newcastle, there’s a big tier of teams that are either too good or too bad to really push to make a move in January.

Fulham and Brighton are close enough in points to convince themselves that they’re in contention for top five, but the underlying numbers and most projection systems give them an outside shot at best. Research from Twenty First Group has found “that net transfer spend in January has just a 5% positive correlation with change in points per game, and that €20m in net spending has delivered on average just a 0.03 increase in points per game in the big 5 leagues since 2015.”

That is, of course, an average. Spend better and you get a bigger return, but not so much bigger. So, if you’re in a race where a point or three could make a difference, then a January move makes sense.

Most projection systems have Fulham and Brighton sitting beyond that range for now — and I think the same applies to Tottenham and Manchester United. Both clubs are in various states of disrepair, and investing money into the inefficient market of January isn’t the way to turn things around on the timescale that the clubs are staring down.

Then there’s Crystal Palace, Brentford, and West Ham United — not good, not terrible, not incentivized to chase an immediate improvement this month.

Tier 4: The relegation race

Everton: A wide attacker

Over at The Transfer Flow, Kim McCauley looked ahead to January for Everton, who might finally have some money to invest now that the Friedkin Group has completed its takeover. As McCauley wrote, “If it was my money and I was allowing the club to make one impact signing this January ahead of formulating an actual transfer strategy for the summer, I’d make that signing a wide player with some dribbling ability.”

I agree, so who might that be? One of the roles defined by DAVIES is the “wide dribbler,” which Imurgio defines as: “Dribblers that often look to put crosses into teammates after beating opponents on the dribble.”

Swansea City’s Ronald is tiny, but it’s not like the Championship lacks in physicality, and among all the players classified as wide dribblers by DAVIES, Ronald (23 years old, €1.8 million) rates fifth for value provided with his final ball, behind players such as Raphinha, Son Heung-min and Bukayo Saka.

Leicester City: Literally anyone?

Leicester City are the Newcastle United of the relegation battle — not in the sense that they have untold wealth, but in the sense that they have no real clear strengths. The difference is that pretty much everything is a weakness.

I wonder if they could get Alfie Doughty (25 years old, €9 million) from Luton Town? I thought he proved himself to be a viable Premier League player last season, when he was one of the better wide creators in the league. Wing back is probably his best position, but I think there’s still a way to cover up some of his weaknesses.

Unfortunately for Luton, they’re unlikely to be promoted back to the Premier League this year. Fortunately for Luton, they’re also unlikely to go down to League One.

Wolverhampton: Someone to stop giving up goals

Shot-stopping statistics can be quite volatile. Just take José Sá, who was lights out three years ago, terrible two years ago, incredible a year ago and sieve-like again this season. Wolverhampton’s other starting goalkeeper, England international Sam Johnstone, has also been awful.

The biggest reason that Wolves are where they are in the table is… OK, it’s because they’re a bad soccer team. But the second-biggest reason is that they’ve given up way more goals than the quality of the shots they’ve conceded suggests they should.

The options here are to hope that this is all just noise and Sá starts to play like he did last season or risk continuing to see your performances not match up with your results because the other team’s shots keep going in. Perhaps you throw a bid at Las Palmas for Álvaro Valles (27 years old, €9 million), who was fantastic last season but hasn’t played at all this year because of a contract dispute with the club?

Ipswich Town: Someone to get shots

Kieran McKenna’s team creates chances like this: (1) get the ball to Leif Davis, (2) let Leif Davis cook. And it’s not even really how you’d expect a relegation-quality team to create chances. He’s not just hugging the touchline and bombing crosses into the box. No, Davis’s highlight reel is a collection of beautiful reverse balls and clever passes in behind the opposition backline. Although Ipswich are likely to go down, I’d expect someone else to make sure that Davis doesn’t go with them.