Premier League title race: Liverpool, Man City or Arsenal?

It’s almost March and we’re heading into the business end of the 2023-24 European club season, with all major trophies (bar England’s Carabao Cup) still in the balance. When it comes to the Premier League, we actually have a three-team title race, with Liverpool (last winners in 2019-20), Manchester City (winners in five of the past six seasons) and Arsenal (last winners in 2003-04) separated by just two points with 12 games to play.

All three teams are still active in Europe, too — Man City and Arsenal in the Champions League, Liverpool in the Europa League — and with injuries and fatigue kicking in as they compete on multiple fronts, this is as dramatic a race as we’ve had in years. So, with some huge games on the horizon in March and April, plus pros/cons for all three teams, we’re breaking down where the race goes from here.

Liverpool | First place | 60 points (26 games)

What’s working

Liverpool’s greatest strength right now, the sense of purpose and unity that has been forged by the announcement of Jurgen Klopp’s summer exit as manager, could have been their biggest weakness. And it could yet turn out to be that.

Klopp has been a transformative figure at Anfield since arriving as manager in October of 2015. Nobody — player or manager — comes close to matching Klopp at Liverpool in the Premier League era, and the shock news of his plans to quit at the end of the season could have damaged morale at the club and led to a decline in results. But since Klopp’s decision became public at the end of January, Liverpool have won seven of their eight games (all competitions) and have won the first of a possible four trophies by lifting the Carabao Cup.

Liverpool are now on a “Klopp countdown” until his last day, and it has energised the players and fans to give that extra 1 percent — it could be the difference between a glorious departure and a disappointing one.

It is rare for a manager to be as popular on and off the pitch as Klopp is at Liverpool, and the performance of the three teenagers — Bobby Clark, Jayden Danns and James McConnell — during the Carabao Cup final win against Chelsea highlighted the trust between players and manager and the bond within the squad.

The pressure to give Klopp a winning send-off might yet become too intense, but it looks to have strengthened Liverpool at this point and helped them through a biting injury crisis that sees them without 11 first-team players. The Reds have a deep squad full of quality, but it has been tested to the limit in recent weeks and Klopp has had to rely on the likes of Clark, Danns and McConnell, as well as Conor Bradley and Jarell Quansah, to get them over the line in games.

With most of the big names due to return within the next two to three weeks, Liverpool will hope they have weathered the storm in order to be able to now surge to the title. What happens in the crunch clash against Manchester City at Anfield on March 10 will have a huge impact on the title race, but with the likes of Mohamed Salah, Dominik Szoboszlai and Darwin Núñez likely to be fit for that game, Liverpool appear to be getting stronger at just the right time.

Concerns on the horizon

Liverpool are on course to play 63 games in all competitions if they reach the finals of the FA Cup and Europa League having already won the Carabao Cup, just as they did when winning both domestic cups and reaching the Champions League final in 2021-22. During that season, Liverpool were relatively unscathed by injuries and almost achieved a quadruple, but Klopp’s squad has been much harder hit this time around.

The big question is whether they can cope with the potential fixture backlog.

To put it in context, Liverpool’s FA Cup fifth-round tie at home to Southampton on Wednesday was their 41st game this season. It has taken six months to reach that figure, but they will have to cram the remaining 22 games into the final three months, playing at least two fixtures a week until the FA Cup final on May 25. Virtually all of Klopp’s players also have international commitments between now and the end of the season, so it will be a test of endurance for them to retain fitness all the way until the end of the campaign.

At some point, Klopp might decide to prioritise competitions and make wholesale changes to keep players fresh for the Premier League. But the Liverpool manager is already deep into his reserves due to the injury crisis, so don’t expect him to field anything like a senior team in the Europa League round-of-16 first leg away to Sparta Prague next week.

If Klopp wants to bow out with the Premier League title, he might have to sacrifice the European competition and end hopes of a quadruple, but he is a manager who also places great value on momentum. It is a balancing act that he has to get right.

Saving his players from fatigue will be a big challenge in the weeks ahead.

Toughest games remaining

The home game against Manchester City on March 10 is the toughest fixture on Liverpool’s schedule between now and the end of the season, and its outcome will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the title race. City don’t have a good record at Anfield, so if Liverpool can maintain their home form against Pep Guardiola’s side, they will come out of that clash as title favourites.

But while that game is the obvious fork in the road, they face two particularly tough trips to Manchester United and Aston Villa that could derail their title hopes.

United have been rolled over in recent seasons at Anfield, but Liverpool have a mixed record at Old Trafford and their traditional rivals will need to beat Klopp’s side in April to keep alive their hopes of Champions League qualification. A trip to Aston Villa on May 11 in the penultimate game of the season will also have Champions League implications with Unai Emery’s side so far maintaining their push for a top-four finish.

Intangibles

The Klopp effect is Liverpool’s X factor. If the team is still in the hunt for the title during the run-in, the emotion of Anfield will be so intense that it could push the team either way. Everyone at the club is desperate for Klopp to leave as a winner, but will that desire be a positive or a negative? — Mark Ogden

Manchester City | Second place | 59 points (26 games)

What’s working

Put simply, Manchester City are winning games, and players who weren’t available during the first half of the campaign are back to full fitness. Pep Guardiola’s team hasn’t lost since the 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa on Dec. 6, winning 15 of their past 17 games in all competitions, and in the Premier League, it’s eight wins from nine games and 25 points from an available 27 since Christmas.

Guardiola has had to deal with injuries to Kevin De Bruyne (out for five months), Erling Haaland (out for two months) and John Stones (out for close to three months), but all three are fit again heading into the run-in, and traditionally, this is where City excel. Guardiola’s message to his players during the opening months of a season is always to stay in touch with the leaders, and they’ve done it again.

Over the past six seasons, they’ve shown they are more than capable of putting together long winning runs at the business end of the campaign, all of which makes it very hard for other challengers to stay in the race. Since the 2017-18 season and excluding the delayed 2019-20 COVID season, City have lost just six league games in the months of March, April and May. They dropped five points over the final three months of last season — a 1-1 draw with Brighton and a 1-0 defeat at Brentford — with both results coming after they had already been confirmed as champions.

The worry for Liverpool and Arsenal is that, as they’ve done so often before, City will just plough through their remaining games without dropping many more points. After long spells on the sidelines, De Bruyne, Haaland and Stones should be fresh, and there’s a strong argument that City will become the first English team to win the top-flight championship four times in a row.

Concerns on the horizon

There have been concerns that City have looked vulnerable defensively at times, but the stats suggest they’re performing at a similar level to last season. After 26 games, they’ve conceded 26 goals and kept eight clean sheets, compared to 25 goals in 26 games at the same stage last season. Liverpool and Arsenal have better defensive records, but City have shown their ability to grind out results, with narrow 1-0 wins over Brentford and Bournemouth in their past two games.

Their main area of weakness is when an opposing team is able to take advantage of City’s high defensive line. Newcastle did it with two almost identical goals at St James’ Park in January, and Chelsea had a number of similar chances in the 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium in February. It’s a high-risk but also high-reward approach, and Guardiola certainly isn’t going to change the way he plays after winning the title in five of the past six years.

Really, Guardiola’s biggest worry between now and the end of the season is having to do without Rodri. The Spanish midfielder has missed three league games this season, and City have lost all three (to Wolves, Arsenal and Aston Villa), which tells you exactly how important he has become.

There’s competition for places all over the squad except for Rodri’s position at the base of the midfield, where any absence is compounded by the fact that there isn’t anyone else who can do the same job. Kalvin Phillips joined West Ham on loan in the summer — though Guardiola didn’t trust him anyway — while summer signings Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes are different kinds of midfielders, who are more comfortable playing higher up the pitch.

Deploying Stones (who also missed the defeats to Wolves and Arsenal) as a holding midfielder is one option, but there’s an argument that he’s too valuable in the hybrid centre-back/central midfielder role. Manuel Akanji tried it in the draw with Chelsea but was nowhere near as effective. Losing Rodri for any length of time would be a huge blow.

Toughest games remaining

You can make a case that March will make or break City’s title challenge. It begins with Manchester United’s visit to the Etihad on Sunday before away games at Liverpool (March 10) and Brighton (March 17) and then a home game against Arsenal (March 31). United are having a poor season, but anything can happen in a derby and Erik ten Hag’s team have already caused one surprise this season, earning a credible 0-0 draw at Anfield in December.

City don’t have a great record at Anfield, Brighton can beat anyone under Roberto De Zerbi and Arsenal beat City in October, so it’s going to be a tough month. Beyond that, there isn’t much to worry Guardiola — aside from a trip to Tottenham in April — in the final six weeks of the season.

If City come through March unscathed, there will be very few willing to bet against them. Guardiola doesn’t want to talk about an unprecedented double-treble, but by that point, his players will already be able to smell it.

Intangibles

It has seemed as though Haaland is experiencing a dip after last season, and his scoring rate is down — 17 goals in 1,741 Premier League minutes at 0.88 goals/90 this season, compared to 36 goals in 2,769 minutes, for 1.17 goals/90, in 2022-23. That said, he’s invaluable in tight games with few chances and his thirst for goals also means that City can afford to leak the odd goal because he’s capable of scoring three himself.

Haaland is so hard to stop because he can do everything — run in behind or use his size and strength to play as a hold-up man. He can pin defenders and has an almost unnatural ability to find the right space in the penalty area, as shown by his remarkable five-goal game against Luton Town in the FA Cup. Having such a prolific player can relieve a lot of the pressure in a tight title race. — Rob Dawson

Arsenal | Third place | 58 points (26 games)

What’s working

Arsenal could not have started 2024 any better when it comes to the title race.

The Gunners have won six consecutive Premier League matches at the beginning of a calendar year for the first time in their history by a combined aggregate score of 25-3. They put six goals past West Ham, five past Burnley and bounced back from a disappointing Champions League round-of-16 first leg defeat to Porto by hitting Newcastle for four. They have the best defensive record in the division and the best goal difference, after a run fuelled in part by using past disappointments to motivate them so effectively.

Sources have told ESPN that Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has been the driving force behind a series of prematch hype videos designed to create a more intimidating atmosphere at Emirates Stadium. Arteta and members of his backroom staff shared the montages on social media, the latest of which previewed the visit of Newcastle, with whom they have developed a surprisingly intense rivalry in the past couple of seasons.

Last year’s 0-0 draw came amid accusations of excessive time-wasting as Arsenal lost 1-0 on Tyneside in November to a controversial Anthony Gordon goal that prompted Arsenal to complain to referees’ body PGMOL, triggering heated words between the two clubs. Arteta believes that repeatedly finding the intensity to fight these individual battles will add up to a first Premier League title since 2004.

The form of key players is also encouraging. Both Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard had quiet spells earlier in the campaign but are now influencing matches on a regular basis again. At the back, Gabriel and William Saliba have formed arguably the best centre-back pairing in the Premier League this season. Declan Rice was acquired at great expense from West Ham last summer — in a deal that could be worth £105 million — but he is proving value for money by bringing composure and class to Arsenal’s engine room.

Concerns on the horizon

The biggest question Arsenal have to answer is whether they can hold their nerve this time around. The Gunners held an eight-point lead at the beginning of April, only to win three of their final nine matches as Manchester City overtook them. Perhaps the role of hunters rather than hunted — they are third — will suit better, but title run-ins are about executing game plans consistently under maximum pressure and they fell short a year ago.

Saliba’s injury destabilized them defensively while Saka, Odegaard and Martinelli collectively lost form at a critical time, seemingly fatigued after putting so much into the first three-quarters of the campaign. Arteta has repeatedly spoken about the need to have a fully fit squad to help share the load and things are looking positive in that regard, with Thomas Partey and Fabio Vieira nearing returns from long-term injuries; there’s also optimism that summer signing Jurriën Timber, injured during preseason, could return this season.

Questions over their mentality grew after a Champions League defeat in Porto — the Gunners failed to have a shot on target for the first time in more than two years — and there remains a suspicion that despite scoring heavily of late, they might eventually pay the price for lacking a clinical goal scorer in the mould of Haaland or Salah. Only two players have reached double figures in goals for Arsenal this season — Saka on 16, Leandro Trossard on 10 — compared to three for City (Haaland, Phil Foden, Julián Álvarez) and five for Liverpool (Salah, Diogo Jota, Darwin Núñez, Cody Gakpo, Luis Díaz).

Gabriel Jesus’ return from a lingering knee problem would be a significant boost, although some doubts persist whether, despite his obvious class, he can be the efficient finisher Arsenal need to the extent they don’t end up pursuing an expensive new signing in the summer.

Toughest games remaining

The game that obviously stands out is Manchester City away on March 31. Arsenal were overwhelmed by City in that fixture last season when the title was in their hands, as De Bruyne and Haaland put on a masterclass to beat the Gunners 4-1. Beyond that, the title could be won or lost on the road given they have fewer away games than City — six compared to City’s seven — but there are some tricky trips ahead.

After Sheffield United on Monday, they go to City, Brighton and Wolves before rounding off April with the north London derby. That was also a fixture that cost them dearly two years ago, when an insipid 3-0 defeat effectively cost them qualification for the Champions League. Spurs look like being in a scrap for a top-four finish this season themselves, and so the magnitude of that game for both sides is impossible to overstate.

Oh, and Arsenal’s final trip of the season? Manchester United. Erik ten Hag’s side is wildly unpredictable these days, but the Gunners have won only once in the Premier League at Old Trafford since 2006.

Intangibles

Arsenal will need to keep their key players fit and firing to win the title. Saliba’s injury cost them dearly last season, and their squad looks least able to cope with key absentees, especially when considering Liverpool are top despite losing Salah to the Africa Cup of Nations and Haaland has missed around two months of the season already, yet both are currently ahead of the Gunners.

There is an argument that the “over-celebrating” Arsenal have been accused of in recent weeks has been misinterpreted: Arteta and his players are trying to revel in key moments to engender the self-belief and team spirit that can take them to the title. We’re about to find out if they have enough. — James Olley

Projections

When thinking retrospectively, it’s easy to see City as an inevitable behemoth that eliminates all doubt and uncertainty with perfect spring stretch runs. But they needed to score three goals in the final 15 minutes of the season, after suffering five blemishes in their last 16 matches, to outlast Liverpool in 2021-22. As late as April 5 last year, FiveThirtyEight’s since-discontinued Soccer Power Index gave Arsenal the slightest of edges (51% to 49%) over City in the title race, and after a particularly rickety winter, it took one of those perfect runs (they dropped two points in 15 matches) to get the job done.

After recording 100 points in 2017-18 and 98 in 2018-19, they’ve since averaged a great-but-imperfect 87.3 points, and they’re currently on pace for 86.2 in 2023-24.

So, are City the favorites again heading into March? Absolutely, but it’s basically a coin toss.