NBA draft 2025: Projections, prospects, protections to watch

The NBA season is only two months old, but it is not too early to look ahead to the draft lottery in May.

The teams jockeying for position to draft top prospects Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are either in the middle stages of rebuilding, have been impacted by injuries or underachieved through the first quarter of the season.

The Indiana Pacers, coming off a trip to the Eastern Conference finals, are an early potential lottery team. So are the Philadelphia 76ers, who won the offseason by signing free agent wing Paul George but find themselves in the conference’s basement at 5-15. Philly is currently looking up at rebuilding teams such as the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets, all of which are projected to land high picks in June’s draft.

The Western Conference is as deep as ever, but three teams — the rebuilding Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers and the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans — currently have the inside track at landing a top pick.

Guided by projections from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI)

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The bottom 8: Projections, outlooks
Traded draft picks we’re watching
Flagg fits, plus more No. 1 contenders

(2-17)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 14.0%
Chance at top-5 pick: 93.9%

Why the Wizards are here
The Wizards have fully embraced their rebuild. Starting with the 2023 trade that sent Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns, Wizards president of basketball operations Michael Winger has made 11 trades, netting two first-round picks, 12 second-round picks and four years of pick swaps with Phoenix. One of those trades saw Washington deal Deni Avdija to Portland for the 14th pick (the draft rights to guard Bub Carrington), veteran Malcolm Brogdon and the second most favorable 2029 first-rounder among Portland, Boston and Milwaukee. The Wizards’ roster could look much different after the Feb. 6 trade deadline, as Washington has the expiring contracts of Brogdon, Marvin Bagley III and veteran Jonas Valanciunas available to use in trades. — Marks

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
An 0-14 November has the Wizards in pole position to finish with the league’s worst record. They’ll continue to give plenty of minutes to youngsters Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr and Carrington along the way, too, as they hope to claim another impact player in the 2025 draft. — Bontemps

2. Utah Jazz (4-17)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.8%
Chance at top-5 pick: 80.8%

Why the Jazz are here
Utah’s plunge in the West dates back to the 2022 offseason, when the franchise pivoted from playoff contention and elected to trade starters Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale. The Mitchell and Gobert trades, in particular, brought back seven first-round picks (including six unprotected). However, only one of those picks have been conveyed: guard Keyonte George in 2023. — Marks

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
Player development is the priority for the Jazz, and that isn’t just a euphemism for targeting a top spot in a loaded lottery. Utah has the youngest roster in the league with eight players under 24 and is using this season to evaluate those players. The Jazz are also expected to be active in the trade market with veterans such as John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton available for the right deal. — MacMahon

3. Charlotte Hornets (6-15)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 11.8%
Chance at top-5 pick: 54.5%

Why the Hornets are here
Before general manager Jeff Peterson was hired in May, the Hornets’ new ownership led by Rick Schnall took a proactive approach to the February 2024 trade deadline. Instead of holding on to veterans Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington, Charlotte traded all three players for two future first-round picks and two second-round picks. They would acquire six more second-rounders after Peterson took over. — Marks

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
More than anything, the team’s injuries. The Hornets have been competitive, logging a league-high 13 clutch games (defined as the score within five points during the final five minutes of play or overtime.) That’s impressive considering how much of the rotation has been hit with injuries. Star guard LaMelo Ball, who’s missed the vast majority of the past two seasons, will miss at least the next two weeks with a calf strain. Tre Mann, in the midst of a career year, has been experiencing disc issues in his back and will be reevaluated in two weeks. Forward Grant Williams will miss the rest of the season after rupturing his ACL and meniscus. Promising center Mark Williams, 22, made his season debut Tuesday night against Philadelphia. — Chris Herring

4. New Orleans Pelicans (4-18)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 11.1%
Chance at top-5 pick: 50.2%

Why the Pelicans are here ​
General manager David Griffin has built a talented roster, but a glut of injuries — most notably to Zion Williamson — has resulted in a slow start, including the current nine-game losing streak, that New Orleans likely won’t be able to recover from in the ultra-competitive West. The good news is New Orleans controls its own first-round picks for the next seven years. — Wright

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
The Pelicans, who have never paid the luxury tax, are currently $1.4 million above it, meaning there is most likely a minor trade on the horizon to dip below. The unknown is the future of Brandon Ingram, a pending free agent in the offseason. Eligible to sign a four-year, $208 million extension since July, Ingram and the Pelicans remain at an impasse. He switched agents earlier this week, signing with the Rich Paul-led Klutch Sports Group. — Marks

5. Detroit Pistons (9-15)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 9.4%
Chance at top-5 pick: 41.0%

Why the Pistons are here
Bad luck in the lottery. The Pistons won a combined 54 games over the past three seasons but walked away with the fifth pick after each year. And while Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II could develop into starters, neither has flashed All-NBA potential. (Could you have imagined Victor Wembanyama and Paolo Banchero joining former No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham?) — Marks

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
Can the Pistons keep up their early-season success and avoid the lottery? Detroit has already picked up its ninth win of the season, which took until February to reach last season. Detroit hopes its mix of young talent, led by a strong start from Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, can complement veterans such as Tobias Harris to help the team stack up victories and challenge for the postseason. — Jamal Collier

6. Toronto Raptors (7-15)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 8.8%
Chance at top-5 pick: 38.2%

Why the Raptors are here
They got tired of the middle. It started when Toronto traded OG Anunoby to New York and Pascal Siakam to Indiana in a three-week span midway through the 2023-24 season. The Raptors then flipped veteran Dennis Schroder for the expiring contract of Spencer Dinwiddie. The franchise has made a commitment to its young core, signing Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes to a combined $390 million this offseason. Quickley sustained a partial UCL tear in his elbow in early November and has played just three games this year. — Marks

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
Toronto has a chance to play itself out of this range if it can get its main pieces on the court. (Sunday marked the 10th game Barnes has played this season.) Still, this team is clearly hoping to land another high pick and will keep playing its young players, such as guards Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter, as the season progresses. — Bontemps

7. Portland Trail Blazers (8-14)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 7.1%
Chance at top-5 pick: 30.3%

Why the Blazers are here
Portland realized that working on three timelines (veterans, players in the primes and developmental projects) is difficult to pull off. Since trading CJ McCollum at the February 2023 trade deadline and Damian Lillard eight months later, the Blazers have won just 37% of their games. — Marks

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
Portland is restocked with draft assets after trading its stars. But with rookie big man Donovan Clingan waiting for a larger role, will Portland trade Deandre Ayton or Robert Williams III? The Blazers also need to figure out whether Scoot Henderson is truly their point guard of the future and whether Shaedon Sharpe can stay healthy. — Wright

8. Indiana Pacers (9-14)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 6.5%
Chance at top-5 pick: 27.7%

Why the Pacers are here
The Pacers have been hit hard by injuries, losing James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson for the season and Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith for stretches of games. The root of the Pacers’ failures, however, stems from their 25th-ranked defense. During last season’s surprise run to the conference finals, Indiana’s second-ranked offense was enough to overcome a porous defense. The Pacers find themselves with BPI’s eighth-best lottery odds despite sitting in the East’s final play-in spot. — Marks

What we’re watching for the rest of 2024-25
With All-NBA guard Tyrese Haliburton marred by his worst statistical season of his career, Indiana is going to need its offense to get into gear to avoid a lottery letdown. That begins with Haliburton, who needs to start looking more like the best young point guard in the NBA than the player who has struggled this year. — Collier

, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey this summer. But two months into the season, the 76ers now find themselves in a place of no return. There is the thought that Philadelphia should be bad enough to keep their own first (it goes to Oklahoma City if 7-30) and hope their logo shows up with the first pick in May. Then there is the reality that the lack of quality teams in the East will keep Philadelphia in the playoff race all season even if Embiid’s availability is game-to-game. — Marks

Note: Despite Philadelphia’s place in the standings, BPI still projects the 76ers to be a play-in team in the weaker East. They face one of the NBA’s easiest remaining schedules, but the team’s whirlwind first few months create a near impossible projection for Philly.

Minnesota Timberwolves
What’s at play: 2025 unprotected first-round pick goes to Utah

Trading Karl-Anthony Towns was supposed to help the Wolves better balance their roster. But what no one saw coming was their defense falling to seventh in the league after easily capturing the top spot last season. Some of that has to do with the newness to this roster, but the Timberwolves have also allowed the eighth-most points off turnovers this season after finishing 15th last season. Considering Utah owns this pick after the Rudy Gobert trade, there is no incentive for Minnesota to fall any deeper in the standings. (The Wolves also owe the Jazz their first-round picks in 2027 (unprotected) and 2029 (top-five protected). On the court, how much does coach Chris Finch rely on rookie guard Rob Dillingham? In two games this week without starting guard Mike Conley, Dillingham totaled 26 points and eight assists. — Marks

Note: BPI currently projects the Timberwolves to finish No. 10 in the West, with the fifth-toughest remaining schedule.

San Antonio Spurs
What’s at play: Control own 2025 first-round pick and Atlanta’s unprotected first-round pick

The Dejounte Murray trade in the 2022 offseason netted San Antonio the Hawks’ unprotected first-round pick in 2025, 2027 and the right to swap first-rounders in 2026. As a result, San Antonio could make the postseason — the Spurs are currently holding onto 10th in the West — and also add a high lottery pick to join Victor Wembanyama should the Hawks drop in the East standings. (San Antonio and Utah are the only teams with two cracks at the top spot.) San Antonio has built a talented young roster that needs time to develop. How Atlanta finishes is of interest since the Spurs own a Hawks unprotected first-round pick in 2025. They’ll also keep close watch on how Charlotte and Chicago fare since they own protected picks from those teams, too. — Marks and Wright

Note: BPI projects the Spurs to finish 11th in the West, while it projects the Hawks to finish No. 7 in the East. San Antonio has the third-toughest remaining schedule in the league.

Sacramento Kings
What’s at play: 2025 first-round pick goes to Atlanta if it falls outside the top 12

Sacramento can put up points. but their defense continues to hold them back. Through the first quarter of the season, Sacramento is an NBA-worst 2-4 when they score at least 125 points. The health of DeMar DeRozan and inconsistency of Keegan Murray will help define where the Kings end up this season. DeRozan, 35, had been one of the more durable players, appearing in 92% of regular-season games since 2009. However, since signing with the Kings this summer, he has missed four games because of lower back inflammation. Third-year forward Murray, meanwhile, was supposed to be a reliable scoring option next to De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and DeRozan. However, he is averaging 12.4 points and shooting a career-worst 41.4% from the field and 27.8% on 3-pointers. — Marks

Note: BPI projects the Kings to finish 12th in the West, with the second-toughest remaining schedule.

Brooklyn Nets
What’s at play: Their first lottery pick since 2010

This summer, the Nets regained control of their 2025 first-round pick (they also eliminated swap rights in 2026) in a trade with the Rockets. In 2009-10, the then-New Jersey Nets finished with a 12-70 record but dropped from first to third the night of the lottery. The Nets also have three additional first-rounders from Milwaukee (if 5-30), New York and Oklahoma City. Even after dealing away Mikal Bridges to the Knicks during the offseason — and now having lost leading scorer Cam Thomas to injury for the next few weeks — Brooklyn finds itself in play-in position; something no one figured would be the case heading into the season. The front office might need to unload more talent for future assets if getting a top draft pick this year is the priority. — Marks and Herring

Note: BPI projects the Nets to finish No. 10 in the East, with the third-easiest remaining schedule.

, G, BYU

Harper turned in a pair of eye-popping performances last week against Notre Dame and Alabama, showcasing his instincts and skill as a finisher and his willingness to take over games. He has been the best freshman performer in college basketball as Rutgers enters conference play this week.

Bailey, the best shotmaker in this draft, showed improvement in each game he played last week, and continues to showcase a clinical midrange game. He remains a work in progress in a lot of areas, but his star upside will become a major talking point if he can stay consistent in the coming weeks.

Demin has wowed NBA scouts with his combination of size, vision and playmaking, running an NBA-style offense to perfection and making the transition from Europe to college look seamless. With BYU’s schedule stiffening significantly, teams will closely monitor his ability to generate efficient offense, defend his position and make shots consistently to determine just how much of a top-pick contender he is.

— Givony and Jeremy Woo

Which team would Flagg fit best in 2025-26?

Givony: Charlotte. Operating alongside a playmaking wizard like LaMelo Ball along with a do-it-all wing in Brandon Miller would be exciting to watch. He’d have plenty of room to grow offensively alongside two unselfish stars and would provide a huge jolt of energy and versatility defensively to help propel the Hornets back into playoff contention.

Woo: Washington. I’d be curious to see Flagg on a front line including him, Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr would be quite formidable from a defensive standpoint. Their offense might be a different story in the short term, but the amount of versatility and length would give Washington an excellent foundation.

Latest buzz on the 2025 draft