Looking beyond the NBA standings can help us understand which teams are likely to move up or tumble down the standings in the following season.
In the NFL, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell has made a tradition of using statistical factors to predict the five best candidates to improve or decline on an annual basis. Underscoring my argument that these predictions aren’t as easy in the NBA, three of the seven teams in last year’s inaugural column — four to improve, three to decline — missed the mark.
Part of the challenge is personnel matters so much more in the NBA. Although several statistical factors pointed toward the Toronto Raptors improving last season, none proved more important than losing Fred VanVleet in free agency. Toronto was off to a 12-19 start before trading first OG Anunoby and then Pascal Siakam midseason, and the Raptors ultimately saw their win total drop by 16 games.
Incentives matter, too. On paper, the Washington Wizards figure to step forward after underperforming their expected win total based on point differential by 4.5 games last season. With three first-round picks on their roster, however, the Wizards are likely more interested in developing young talent and accumulating lottery odds than beating last season’s 15 wins.
With those caveats in mind, I’ve added a fourth predictive factor — team age — to the three (point differential, health and opponent 3-point percentage) I used in last year’s results. Based on those indicators, here are teams heading in different directions in 2024-25.
Most likely to improve
Detroit Pistons
2023-24 record: 14-68
ESPN BET win total: 25.5
The only repeat team from last year’s list, the Pistons somehow managed to come up short of their 17 wins in 2022-23 while getting 62 games from Cade Cunningham a season after injuries limited him to 12 games.
Despite tying the NBA record with a 28-game losing streak, Detroit finished with a better point differential (minus-9.1 points per game) than two other Eastern Conference rivals (Charlotte and Washington). That’s two years in a row the Pistons have massively underperformed their expected record based on underlying points scored and allowed — around four wins in 2022-23 and nearly six wins last season.
Again, that should translate into improvement. Since the 1999-2000 season, about 67% of teams that finished at least five wins below their expected total improved the following season. And the Pistons underperforming in back-to-back years will not preclude that. Of the eight teams in that span who have been four wins below their expected record twice in a row, six outperformed it the following season.
Memphis Grizzlies
2023-24 record: 27-55
ESPN BET win total: 47.5
This pick feels like a layup. The Grizzlies won a combined 107 games over the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, and have an over/under total more than 20 wins higher than last season’s finish. On one level, Memphis was lucky to get 27 wins despite a minus-7.0 point differential that would normally translate into fewer than 24 wins.
That concern, however, is dwarfed by the Grizzlies’ likely improvement in terms of health. Memphis players missed 561 games due to injury or non-COVID illness last season, the highest number in my database by a staggering 154 games. Although part of the explanation is that injury totals have been on the rise, peaking in 2022-23 before a slight drop last season, nonetheless only one team dating back to 2009-10 has exceeded the league average by more than the Grizzlies (162% higher). That team, the 2009-10 Golden State Warriors, improved by 10 wins the following season.
With GG Jackson II already sidelined by surgery to repair a broken bone in his right foot, Memphis isn’t off to a great start in terms of health. Still, it’s hard to imagine a situation as severe as last season, when injuries and Ja Morant’s suspension limited the Grizzlies’ three perimeter starters (Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart) to just 71 games combined.
San Antonio Spurs
2023-24 record: 22-60
ESPN BET win total: 36.5
Without a player older than age 24 among their top six in minutes played, the Spurs were the NBA’s youngest team by the end of the regular season with a 23.7 weighted age. You might think that should translate to improvement, and you’d be right: Of the 10 teams with a weighted age less than 24 since 1999-2000, only the 2020-21 Oklahoma City Thunder saw their record go backward.
Having added veterans Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul, San Antonio won’t be nearly as young this season. Add in the development of the Spurs’ young talent, most notably No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama heading into his second season, and it’s no wonder they’re a trendy pick to battle for a play-in spot.
Beyond San Antonio’s age, the team also underperformed its point differential (-6.5 PPG) by three games, ending with only one win more than Portland (minus-9.0) and Charlotte (minus-10.2). So the Spurs’ over/under total translates into more like 11.5 wins of actual improvement instead of 14.5.
Most likely to decline
LA Clippers
2023-24 record: 51-31
ESPN BET win total: 40.5
For the most part, I’m trying to avoid teams whose fortunes are likely to change due to roster turnover, but I think it’s worth making the case that the Clippers let Paul George leave in part because they recognized the likelihood for regression.
At an average age of 31.2, the Clippers were at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Spurs. Of the 19 teams that old since 1999-2000, 15 have declined the following season. The Clippers were also atypically healthy in 2023-24, losing just 151 games to injury or non-COVID illness after an average of 247.5 the previous two seasons.
Given those factors, the Clippers were unlikely to win 50 games again had they brought everyone back, perhaps making it more difficult to justify paying the repeater tax by re-signing George.
Shaquille O’Neal says JJ Redick might struggle to win over veteran players in his first season as Lakers coach.
Los Angeles Lakers
2023-24 record: 47-35
ESPN BET win total: 43.5
Having brought back nearly their entire roster — rookies Dalton Knecht and Bronny James are the lone newcomers on full NBA contracts — the Lakers could be the purest test of these predictive factors. The Lakers had the biggest positive gap of any team last season between their expected and actual record at 4.5 games, going a league-best 11-4 in games decided by three points or fewer. No other team had more than nine wins by three or fewer.
As Lakers fans would surely point out, they actually lost 28% more games due to injury or non-COVID illness than the NBA average, but those absences were disproportionately concentrated among role players — guard Gabe Vincent was notably limited to 11 games. Stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James combined to play 147 games after averaging just 103.5 the previous two seasons.
Of teams that outperformed their expected record by between four and five games, 61% declined the next season. Add in the likelihood that Davis and James miss more time, and a win total 3.5 games below last season’s finish makes sense.
Minnesota Timberwolves
2023-24 record: 56-26
ESPN BET win total: 52.5
Health is a key reason the Timberwolves could take a slight step backward after finishing just one game out of first in the Western Conference last season.
Although Minnesota lost an unremarkable 155 games to injury, more than half of those were from rookie second-round pick Jaylen Clark, who was drafted after suffering an Achilles rupture at UCLA. When weighing games missed by average minutes, the Timberwolves were the second-healthiest team in the NBA behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. (The Thunder’s strong health is offset here by being the second-youngest team after San Antonio.)
Beyond that, Minnesota might not be as fortunate in terms of opponent 3-point shooting. Teams made just 35% of their 3s against the Timberwolves, seventh lowest in the NBA, after hitting 37% (seventh highest) in four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert’s first season in the Twin Cities (2022-23).
Only Oklahoma City has a better win total in the West than Minnesota, so the Timberwolves should still end up near the top of the conference. But don’t be surprised if that comes with a weaker record than they had last season.
