NBA predictions 2024-25: Biggest turnarounds, turbulent teams and the biggest questions

The 2024-25 NBA season is right around the corner — only 65 days away! — and with the release of the regular-season schedule, excitement looms for another season of matchups.

There’s a plethora of familiar faces in new places, most notably sharpshooter Klay Thompson, who, after 13 years with the Golden State Warriors, joined forces with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to attempt to make another run to the Finals.

LeBron James, the league’s leading career scorer, enters a record-tying 22nd season in the NBA, teaming up with his son Bronny James and looking to turn the Los Angeles Lakers’ luck around after two disappointing seasons.

After a relatively drama-free offseason, questions still loom across the league. Can the Boston Celtics continue their dominant streak through the East? Will Paul George be the catalyst to help lift Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers to success?

Enter ESPN’s Summer Forecast panel, a group of experts answering the NBA’s biggest questions heading into the 2024-25 season. (Here’s the math: A first-place vote received five points, a second-place vote three points and a third-place vote one.)

Here are the results:

Note: Our 2024-25 NBA Summer Forecast continues Tuesday with predictions for all the major awards.

Team Turnaround: Which teams will make a major leap?

Our Team Turnaround vote focuses on the teams that are best positioned to make a huge jump in the standings. After an injury-stricken season, the Memphis Grizzlies are primed to make a return to the contender’s table in a competitive Western Conference thanks to the return of Ja Morant and the addition of rookie big man Zach Edey.

Not far behind are the San Antonio Spurs, led by reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama. After a successful run in the 2024 Paris Olympics leading France to the gold medal matchup against Team USA, Wembanyama is entering Year 2 already looking like a veteran. And now, with the addition of a tenured Chris Paul and rookie Stephon Castle, the Spurs have a chance to make a huge leap this season.

1. Memphis Grizzlies: 63 points (42% of first-place votes)

2. San Antonio Spurs: 48 points

3. Golden State Warriors: 18 points

4. Phoenix Suns: 14 points

T5. Milwaukee Bucks: 9 points

T5. Philadelphia 76ers: 9 points

T7. Houston Rockets: 6 points

T7. Orlando Magic: 6 points

T7. Sacramento Kings: 6 points

10. Brooklyn Nets: 5 points

T11. Charlotte Hornets: 1 point

T11. Miami Heat: 1 point

T11. New Orleans Pelicans: 1 point

T11. Portland Trail Blazers: 1 point

Team Turmoil: Which team will take a tumble this season?

When it comes to the Team Turmoil vote, the focus is on uncertainty on the floor, coaching staff and front office.

This season’s “winner” is the Los Angeles Lakers, who have a first-time coach in JJ Redick, a superstar turning 40 in LeBron James and plenty of questions on the court after a first-round exit in last season’s playoffs.

Following the Lakers are their crosstown rivals, the LA Clippers, who are opening the sparkling new Intuit Dome down one All-Star after Paul George left for Philadelphia. The Hawks take third after trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason and handing the offensive reins to Trae Young, whose future in Atlanta remains in question.

1. Los Angeles Lakers: 53 points (43% of first-place votes)

2. LA Clippers: 25 points

T3. Atlanta Hawks: 19 points

T3. Chicago Bulls: 19 points

T5. Denver Nuggets: 12 points

T5. Milwaukee Bucks: 12 points

7. Miami Heat: 10 points

T8. Golden State Warriors: 7 points

T8. Phoenix Suns: 7 points

10. Dallas Mavericks: 6 points

11. Brooklyn Nets: 5 points

12. Philadelphia 76ers: 4 points

T13. Houston Rockets: 3 points

T13. New York Knicks: 3 points

T13. Washington Wizards: 3 points

Which player will get his first All-Star nod?

In our most lopsided vote, Victor Wembanyama ran away with the first-time All-Star category. The 20-year-old big man is fresh off leading France to a silver medal at the 2024 Olympics in his home country and is more than ready for his sophomore campaign in the NBA.

Wembanyama averaged 21.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game last season and will now have the veteran presence of Chris Paul to help guide him into the next phase of his career.

Chet Holmgren, Wembanyama’s biggest rival to date, comes in second in the vote after a runner-up Rookie of the Year performance last season. Despite trailing Wembanyama in most statistical categories, Holmgren was able to guide the Oklahoma City Thunder to a No. 1 seed last season, and the future is bright for his young squad.

In third is newly acquired New York Knick Mikal Bridges.

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 101 points (90% of first-place votes)

2. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 30 points

3. Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks: 20 points

4. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets: 13 points

5. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons: 9 points

6. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 7 points

7. Buddy Hield. Golden State Warriors: 3 points

T8. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat: 1 point

T8. Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets: 1 point

Which star will make the biggest impact on his new team?

The offseason was full of free agents finding homes in new places, including nine-time All-Star Paul George joining forces with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in Philadelphia. After negotiations for a max contract fell through, George’s five-season stint with the Clippers came to a close. George remains one of the NBA’s elite two-wing players, taking the top spot for the player with the biggest impact on his new team.

Mikal Bridges took the second spot in our vote, crossing the Brooklyn Bridge to join forces with the Nova Knicks in Madison Square Garden. After coming off a run to the Eastern Conference semifinals and a 50-win campaign, Bridges will benefit from the roster of talent around him, including Jalen Brunson, Julian Randle and a recently re-signed OG Anunoby.

Defensive specialist Alex Caruso grabbed the third spot in our vote, adding veteran talent to an already top-tier defensive team in Oklahoma.

Six players made the rankings overall, indicating the NBA landscape could see a shake-up this season.

1. Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers: 68 points (48% of first-place votes)

2. Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks: 40 points

3. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 31 points

4. DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings: 24 points

5. Chris Paul, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points

6. Klay Thompson, Dallas Mavericks: 9 points

The next superstar to request a trade will be …?

Since being drafted No. 2 in 2016 and joining the Pelicans in 2019, 26-year-old Brandon Ingram hasn’t found the immediate success he was hoping for. He averaged 20.8 points, 5.7 assists and 5.1 rebounds last season — a slight downturn from his numbers in 2022-23. Ingram has one year remaining on his four-year, $158 million contract. If he doesn’t get an extension, the one-time All-Star could start shopping around.