This week, we explain why defense has always been Boston’s trump card, how the Minnesota Timberwolves will struggle winning multiple playoff rounds without a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns and Victor Wembanyama has arrived in San Antonio.

Jump to Lowe’s Things:
Boston’s true strength | Wemby has arrived
Nuggets getting into gear | Sigh, KAT
Lopez the ballhandler | What is Simons?
Two Monk quibbles | Bey’s physicality

‘ catch-me-if-you-can defense

Most analysis of the Celtics tends to focus on their offense — its potency, and the cracks that emerge in once-a-month crunch-time meltdowns. The Celtics are on pace to be the greatest offense in NBA history. They are No. 1 in 3-point attempts, and for all the old-school hand-wringing about their shot distribution — I’m guilty, too — that has served them well.

The Celtics know a good 3 from a forced 3. When they freeze up late, it is not because they settle for 3s. It’s because they stop running the actions that produce the best ones.

Over the past month, they have found better balance — getting into the restricted area more. In some games, that has been a response to extreme anti-3 tactics from defenses. In others, Boston has hunted the rim — Jayson Tatum putting his head down, Kristaps Porzingis chiseling inside against mismatches.

When the Celtics maintain focus, it is very hard to stop them from getting good shots. On some nights, they bury you. When the jumpers go cold, they are vulnerable. They hit just 11-of-38 on 3s — fewer attempts than usual — in a potential Finals preview against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night. Tatum scored 15 points and gagged five turnovers in a game that might have ended his MVP candidacy and vaulted Nikola Jokic further ahead of the field.

The Celtics’ defense held Denver to around league-average efficiency — all you can ask against Jokic’s precision and brilliance.

Defense has always been Boston’s trump card — the constant that hums amid shooting slumps. It is No. 2 in points allowed per possession — behind only the Minnesota Timberwolves. Top to bottom, Boston has the best and most versatile defensive personnel in the league.

The stingy results and the dizzying mix of schemes are the culmination of years of work from core players, three different coaching staffs and a front office that has been a step ahead in remodeling the roster.

Boston coach Joe Mazzulla is a tinkerer who helped that defense evolve under Brad Stevens and Ime Udoka. Jaylen Brown and Tatum have lived every experiment. Al Horford is a career schematic chameleon. Along the way, the front office acquired outside veterans with the size and IQ to play any style.

Early in the season, the first question facing every Boston opponent sounded like the title of a game show: Where in the world is Jrue Holiday? Oh, he’s on Joel Embiid! Now he’s on Julius Randle! Tonight, it’s Damian Lillard! Other matchups rippled out from there.

As Boston coalesced, the more interesting night-to-night question became: Where in the world is Porzingis? A lot of the challenges the Celtics present boil to this: They can put their center wherever they want on defense, but there is no safe place for yours — no viable assignment other than chasing Porzingis around pick-and-pop 3s and hoping for the best.

Imagine being, say, the Dallas Mavericks preparing for last Friday’s game. Would Porzingis defend Dereck Lively II? Eh. Too pedestrian. Boston could stick Porzingis somewhere else where he could roam, assign a wing to Lively and switch Luka Doncic-Lively pick-and-rolls. It landed on this template two seasons ago with Robert Williams III and immediately transformed into an elite defense.

But where would Porzingis be? Maybe on Josh Green, a low-usage corner shooter? The answer was P.J. Washington, shooting 32% from deep. When the Mavs countered by having Washington screen for Doncic, they discovered Boston was fine with Washington jacking somewhat contested pick-and-pop 3s. (Boston allows the most above-the-break 3s and seventh-fewest corner 3s.) If Washington sliced to the rim, he rolled into Lively’s space — cluttering the paint.

have allowed 120 points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the bench — and 112 when he plays. The lower figure is equivalent to the No. 6-ranked team defense.

Since Dec. 27, the Spurs are plus-17 total with Wembanyama on the floor. For the season, the Spurs are plus-154 in 625 minutes with Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, and Wembanyama together. The five-man group of those three plus Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan is plus-50 in 107 minutes. Gulp.

There is almost no precedent for a player on a team this bad winning Defensive Player of the Year, but Wembanyama has earned strong consideration for the All-Defensive teams.

Oh, and since Dec. 27, Wembanyama is averaging 23 points, 10 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 3.8 blocks on 50% shooting — including 38% on 5.2 3s per game. He is going to shatter the record for career five-by-five games.

Again, this is not normal:

He’s starting to draw regular double-teams in the post. He is approaching one point per possession directly out of isolation plays — the break-even point where they become an acceptable part of an offense — since Dec. 27. Before that, he averaged 0.64 points — one of the worst marks in the league, per Second Spectrum.

When most rookies slump, Wembanyama is surging — and at center, where the Spurs were once hesitant to play him. Some centers bully Wembanyama; Alperen Sengun hung 45 points on the Spurs on Tuesday night. (Wembanyama sprained his ankle in that game and will likely sit out the rest of San Antonio’s road trip, coach Gregg Popovich announced Thursday.) But Wembanyama will get his.

There has been a lot of talk over the past two weeks about Wembanyama’s restlessness at the bottom of the standings. That sounds threatening to the Spurs, but it shouldn’t. It’s an opportunity. The Spurs know how good Wembanyama is. They will pick toward the top of the lottery this season, and maybe never again in the Wembanyama era. That is how it goes for generational superstars: They are so good, so fast, you ascend on their timetable.

The Spurs have the cap flexibility and draft assets — a bounty of extra first-round picks and swaps, including the possibility of a second top-10 pick this season from the Toronto Raptors — to do just about anything around Wembanyama. They can be aggressive and calculated at once — upgrading step by step without torching the future.

is largely facile and might be talking around the obvious: It’s Wembanyama. He is here, and he is ready to win.

3. When the Denver Nuggets get their defense in gear

The Nuggets are quietly up to ninth in points allowed per possession after smothering Boston’s league-best offense Thursday — one tell that they are getting into postseason gear (and that they might care about home-court advantage in the West). They allow the second-fewest 3-point attempts, a huge win considering their aggressive base defense, which has Nikola Jokic corralling ball handlers high on the floor, leaving the other Nuggets playing 3-on-4 behind him.

Those help defenders make long rotations. One false step exposes a dunk or an open 3. It is exhausting, but the Nuggets have proved they can nail it when they are engaged. It helps that several key defenders — Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., the shot-blocking menace Peyton Watson — are huge, fast and smart.

That is the Stephen Curry-Draymond Green pick-and-roll, perhaps the defining play of the past 15 years. The Nuggets snuff it, and almost make it look routine.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope dodges Green’s screen. Jokic meets Curry at the arc, smothering the most dangerous shot. Green appears open rolling to the rim, but Gordon is ready to pounce.

Gordon’s man is Jonathan Kuminga, by himself on the weak side. That is maybe the toughest defensive rotation — all alone, responsible for half the floor. Kuminga is shooting 30% from deep. The Nuggets are not worried about him there. If that were Klay Thompson, Denver would adjust on the fly with Gordon staying home and someone else helping from the strong side, where there are two Warriors and divvying up space is easier.

Look at that photo. The ball is still on Curry’s fingertips, but Gordon has already planted on his right leg to pivot back toward Kuminga. On the other side, Porter has one foot at the edge of the paint, ready to trade places with Gordon once Curry kicks to Kuminga.

A split second later:

Gordon contains Kuminga, Porter threatens any pass to Green, and Jokic sprints back into the paint so Denver can reset assignments.

Here’s another taste:

Stretchy centers present the biggest challenge to this scheme. A hail of Porzingis pick-and-pop 3s bent it on Thursday, forcing the Nuggets to try several adjustments — ending with Jokic hiding on Holiday. You can bet the Thunder and Chet Holmgren were watching.

in part because of Towns’ limitations, but Towns’ strengths and adaptability are a big reason that trade and this jumbo roster bore real fruit.

What cruelty it would be if Towns, a Wolves lifer, can’t see this season through with the best Timberwolves team since Kevin Garnett’s prime. This postseason was set to be the defining test of Towns’ career — his first exposure to real pressure, a chance to erase memories of earlier playoff games dotted with silly fouls and wayward passes.

Towns will be reevaluated in four weeks once he undergoes surgery to repair a torn meniscus. The Wolves are hopeful he can return “early” in the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. What “early” means is unclear. It’s impossible to know where the Wolves will be when Towns can play again, or how fast Towns might approach peak form. Here’s hoping he and these Wolves get an honest run at this. Given the financial crunch coming, there is no guarantee this core will get a second chance.

The Gobert trade was Minnesota concluding it could not defend well enough to win big with Towns as a full-time center. It could not acquire a second big man who does what Towns can’t — protect the rim — while also shooting 3s so Towns could work both inside and outside. Enter Gobert.

Towns had to sacrifice more than any incumbent player to accommodate Gobert. The paint was no longer open for business. Towns has always loved shooting 3s, but the Wolves’ offense is at its best when he mixes in some interior nastiness — post-ups, hard rolls to the rim, face-up drives.

The Gobert trade and the rise of Anthony Edwards relegated Towns to more spot-up duty. How lucky for the Wolves that Towns is among the greatest shooting big men ever.

At times, though, it is awkward. Edwards is still learning the timing of pick-and-roll reads; he’s 22. His two-man game with Towns is hit or miss; defenses often switch it — easier with Towns at power forward — and force Towns to attack one-on-one. With Gobert near the rim, Towns drives into crowds.

The Wolves are 18th in points per possession and 24th in crunch time. Nothing has been easy. The Wolves often compound their inherent stiltedness by short-circuiting sets and standing around while Edwards dribbles. That won’t be good enough.

But there are moments when it sings, and a lot of those involve Towns on the move — catapulted into open space by more creative actions:

When Minnesota commits to executing sets to their end point, at full blast, it has a Finals-level ceiling.

It cannot get there without Towns — cannot win multiple playoff rounds. Oh sure, the Wolves have a ready-made backup template: spread pick-and-roll around Gobert, their No. 1 defense mostly intact. The Wolves have mauled opponents by 14.4 points per 100 possessions when Gobert and Edwards play without Towns, per Cleaning The Glass.

But how does the offense function now when Edwards rests? Everyone is stretched further. One more injury, even to a role player, is a devastating blow. The variance Towns brings — the possibility of a supernova offensive game, a guaranteed win — is gone.

, ball handler

The Milwaukee Bucks are running the Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo two-man game more under coach Doc Rivers, but not much more: about 20 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions under Rivers compared to 17 before, per Second Spectrum.

The play we envisioned as Milwaukee’s tentpole hasn’t been that — yet. It takes time for two players accustomed to dominating the ball to learn their respective dance steps. Antetokounmpo historically has not bought all the way into high-volume screen-setting until postseason stress arrives. Both stars realized early that defenses would blitz Lillard and swarm Antetokounmpo at the foul line, forcing the ball to spot-up shooters.

Swapping Khris Middleton for Jae Crowder juices that shooting quotient way up, and gives Milwaukee another ball handler experienced in running pick-and-roll with Antetokounmpo, with Lillard lurking as a spot-up threat. There is more to mine in the Lillard-Antetokounmpo pairing, and the Bucks will find it.

But Lillard’s chemistry with Lopez has been there from day one. Only three duos have partnered in more pick-and-rolls, per Second Spectrum. Trapping Lillard frees Lopez for pick-and-pop 3s. Lopez is dangerous enough to draw frantic close-outs — from his original man, or third defenders rotating over. One joy of Lopez’s late-career reinvention is watching him exploit those rotations with the NBA’s slowest, most meandering pump-and-go drives:

These deserve their own soundtrack. You can practically hear the thud-thud-thud of each footstep. And yet Lopez is graceful — all padded Eurosteps and faster-than-you-expect spins. Milwaukee has averaged 1.2 points on shots directly out of Lopez’s drives, which ranks 15th among almost 300 players who have recorded at least 50 drives, per Second Spectrum.

(Milwaukee is running that Antetokounmpo-Lopez staggered screen for Lillard more, one of several pet sets Rivers is sprinkling in.)

The Lillard-Lopez two-man game shifts Antetokounmpo into an off-ball role, which is not ideal given his lack of shooting. But the Bucks can make that work. Lopez is a canny passer, and Antetokounmpo does not need much space to cut for dunks.

The Bucks had won six straight before the Warriors blew them out Wednesday in the first of a brutal string of games against good teams. If the Bucks are really fixed, we’ll know in the next two weeks. Even so, they are almost assured at the No. 2 or 3 seed, opposite in the East bracket from Boston.

has helped. The offense will be there — probably at a top-five level if Middleton returns and stays healthy. Toss in an average-ish defense, and the Bucks become perhaps the only East team that can challenge Boston. (Refreshed health for the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers could change that equation.)

6. What is Anfernee Simons?

Once a season becomes hopeless, the No. 1 thing any rebuilding team wants is more information about its young players. Have the Portland Trail Blazers even gotten that?

Scoot Henderson has shown glimpses of advanced playmaking, but he’s shooting just 37.5% and has missed 18 games. Shaedon Sharpe hasn’t played in two months after opening in a flourish, flying off pindowns and working as a secondary ball handler. Those two plus Simons have played only 66 minutes together; the Blazers are a gruesome minus-56 in those minutes. Can that trio survive on defense?

The young guys have had little reliable veteran support. Jerami Grant has been a constant, but Deandre Ayton and Malcolm Brogdon have shuffled in and out. Robert Williams III has missed nearly the whole season.

There have been fringe wins. Toumani Camara’s 3-pointer is trending up. Duop Reath can be a rotational stretch center. Jabari Walker is a ball of energy.

Simons is on a mini-tear, averaging 31 points and nine assists over Portland’s past three games — one win and two close losses against Minnesota and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Before those three games, it was beginning to seem almost like a wasted season for Simons. He has missed a third of it. When available, he hasn’t seized the offense in ways that might indicate he could ascend into a No. 1 ballhandling role someday. He’s averaging 22.8 points and 5.5 assists — career highs, but barely.

Simons has improved on defense. He’s an ingenious scorer with an endless bag of floaters and ultra-deep range.

He has all the basic pick-and-roll passes, but there haven’t been many next-level manipulative reads that suggest a coming mega-leap.

Maybe this stretch is hinting at that. Maybe it was unfair to expect it with so little shooting and pop around Simons. Defenses double him 30 feet from the rim and force him to give up the ball.

But in an ideal world, Simons would scale up in a way that translates to more wins on a better team. He isn’t the kind of player who easily can scale down; he’s not a good enough defender.

-related quibbles

Monk is one of the favorites (again) for Sixth Man of the Year and in line for a fat new contract this offseason. Quibble No. 1 is for the Kings to eliminate any non-garbage-time minutes in which both Monk and De’Aaron Fox sit — even if Domantas Sabonis remains in to prop up the offense. Opponents have outscored those groups by 13 points per 100 possessions in about 275 total minutes, per Cleaning The Glass.

You don’t see these groups much when Fox and Monk are healthy. In some games, you don’t see them at all. That should be the standard. The margin for error in hanging on to a top-six or even top-eight seed in the West is almost nothing, though the Kings’ road win against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday was massive. (The two teams play again next week; the Lakers really needed a sweep.)

Monk will always be an offense-first player, undersized guarding wings. The Kings have been a hair worse on defense when Monk plays and allowed 119 points per 100 possessions with the Monk/Fox/Sabonis trio on the floor — about equivalent to the Detroit Pistons’ No. 29-ranked defense.

Quibble No. 2: Monk can improve his attention to detail away from the action. He sometimes fixates on the ball, turning his back to shooters:

Monk recovers, but he has to move so fast to make up for his initial error that he flies by Buddy Hield.

Opportunistic rebounders dart behind Monk when they notice him gawking at the ball:

It’s possible the only positive to come of this colossally disappointing Hawks season is Jalen Johnson exploding into a very good two-way starter — and maybe a future All-Star. (Kobe Bufkin has shown flashes in Trae Young’s absence.)

Beyond that, the most notable events have happened to the Hawks: opposing teams and players scoring ungodly amounts against them, peaking with Luka Doncic’s 73-point evisceration. Only the awfulness of the East has kept Atlanta nestled in the final play-in spot. Caw-caw.

The Hawks are 4-2 since Young’s hand injury, with two losses to the Brooklyn Nets and wins over the Orlando Magic without Paolo Banchero, the New York Knicks without four starters and the Cleveland Cavaliers on the second end of a back-to-back without Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, but the Hawks need to learn something in this stretch without Young before a pivotal offseason.

Bey has been meh heading into restricted free agency. He’s shooting 32% on 3s. He has improved on defense and on the glass, but he’s average there. What is a 3-and-D guy if both the “3” and “D” are blurry?

But there are fun quirks to his game, including a mean streak with the ball. Bey hunts contact. He wants to inflict pain:

Bey has drawn shooting fouls on 16.5% of his drives — ninth among 291 players who have recorded at least 50 drives, per Second Spectrum.

He is also good at one of my favorite little pick-and-roll tactics for screeners: faking a hard roll to the basket and then moonwalking into an open 3:

(Did you forget how jarring the in-season tournament courts were? I did too.)

Every screener who can shoot should master this gambit. Bey has it down, so the Hawks have that going for them, which is nice.