Lowe: NBA’s forgotten red-hot team and the flourishing Luka-Kyrie pairing

This week, we highlight the red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers and the state of a wild Eastern Conference, Zion Williamson’s peculiar pick-and-rolls, the unguardable Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving duo in Dallas and a blaring bright spot in Atlanta.

Jump to Lowe’s Things:
Red-hot Cavs | The uncertain Pels rotations
The Kings cut | Bag this shot, Jalen Green
Collins may need to bag this shot | Johnson shining in Atlanta
Luka-Kyrie flourishing | Bol Bol!

more than at any time in the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown era. If we get to April and the conference looks anything like it does today, Boston falling short of the Finals will be a catastrophe.

That could change. Injuries could strike at the wrong time. The Celtics are a different team with Kristaps Porzingis, and Porzingis has been fragile before. The New York Knicks — perhaps the team best positioned to push Boston — could get healthier sooner than expected. Joel Embiid’s recovery timetable could flip everything. The Miami Heat are never to be taken lightly, even if they have to machete through the play-in tournament again.

The Milwaukee Bucks are the single most important story in the league over the next two months. They have a top-three player in his absolute prime and have not put together even a two-week stretch in which they looked complete on both ends at the same time. The clock ticks.

The forgotten team has been the best one in 2024: the Cleveland Cavaliers, 18-3 in their past 21 games even after a loss to the Orlando Magic on Thursday without Donovan Mitchell, with the No. 1 defense and No. 4 offense in that stretch. The schedule was soft — eight wins against the Washington Wizards, San Antonio Spurs, Brooklyn Nets and Detroit Pistons — but the Cavs upended the Bucks and LA Clippers. They are three games up in the loss column on Milwaukee for the No. 2 seed, which would postpone any date with Boston until the conference finals and give Cleveland home-court advantage until then.

The first half of that run came with Evan Mobley and Darius Garland injured. The media vultures were circling: Was the Cavs’ season toast? What would that mean for Donovan Mitchell?

The Cavs buried all that noise under a hail of 3s, Jarrett Allen dunks and Mitchell’s supernova brilliance. With an army of quick shooters replacing Mobley and Garland, it was easier for the Cavs to tap into the pace-and-space identity to which they aspired.

The ball flew, and everyone around Mitchell made the right decisions in an instant:

None of that is fancy. It’s just smart players zooming into every action and making snap reads.

Allen attacked the uncluttered paint with newfound decisiveness — zipping through one-dribble moves and finishing with both hands. Removing one non-shooter — Mobley — opened more minutes for Isaac Okoro, who cemented himself as a ferocious stopper and made enough 3s to earn his keep.

They found magic amid adversity but knew it was temporary.

So far, the Cavs have carried the most important elements of that honeymoon phase into this next chapter with their full roster. The spacing with Mobley and Allen together will be bad. That is intractable. The idea is that the defense will improve more than the offense suffers — that the Cavs can work around subpar spacing by being unpredictable and playing with speed.

Every defense has seen that set a hundred times. With Mobley and Allen on the floor, there is not much space for the defense to cover. It results in a dunk anyway because the Cavs execute it with urgent force. Mitchell slams KJ Martin with that first screen — forcing the Sixers to switch Tyrese Maxey onto Mobley. Martin stops to peek at that crisis. When he turns back around, Mitchell is gone — bolting around an Allen pindown.

Mitchell flies off that pick with so much space, Allen’s man has to lunge at him. That frees Allen for a rim run; Allen sprints into it, and Mitchell finds him for a dunk.

It is hard to sustain such pace for 80 or 90 half-court possessions — especially against elite postseason defenses who have all that cute stuff scouted and the personnel to switch it. But when you mix intricate, fast actions with superstar talent, the degree of difficulty for defenses ratchets up. The Cavs have scored 119 points per 100 possessions in 131 minutes with Mobley and Allen on the floor since Mobley’s return — equivalent to a top-five offense. Keep that up, and the Cavs, overwhelmed by playoff pressure a year ago, are a threat to reach the conference finals.

There will be quarters when the double-big offense bogs down. That’s why coach J.B. Bickerstaff is staggering minutes between Mobley and Allen — and Mitchell and Garland — more dramatically. Mobley and Allen play the first six-ish minutes of each half together and in some halves do not share the floor again. It is almost as if the Cavs have three teams: their starting group; the Mitchell-Allen duo with shooting around them; and then the Garland-Mobley duo with supporting personnel.

since 1993.

2. Zion Williamson and the lowest pick-and-rolls in the league

The New Orleans Pelicans are the league’s most confounding good team. They are 34-22 after winning eight of nine, in sole possession of the No. 5 seed and boasting the West’s fourth-best point differential. Their schedule is manageable. Projection systems give them between a 60% and 80% chance of nabbing a top-six seed in what promises to be a tense race to avoid the play-in.

They start four players generally considered below-average defenders, yet somehow rank in the top 10 in points allowed per possession for the second straight season. (Some of that is luck; New Orleans allows the second-most 3s, but its opponents have hit a league-low 34.6% from deep.)

In stretches, they look unstoppable — the boulder rolling downhill. But there are quarters, halves, entire games when something just seems a little off. They are minus-15 with CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Williamson on the floor. Those are three ball-dominant players who like to operate from the midrange and in. Only McCollum is a dangerous high-volume 3-point shooter, and he deserves credit for migrating outward to accommodate Williamson and Ingram. (Ingram has launched more 3s recently, and is at 36%.)

Add a center, and both the spacing and the ballhandling hierarchy get clunky — leaving one of Williamson and Ingram to manufacture something in tight confines while the other stands along the sideline. This has manifested in shaky crunch-time offense and blown leads; the Pels are 27th in points per possession in the last five minutes of close games.

Lineups with Trey Murphy III in Williamson’s place have thrived. Coach Willie Green has used Williamson at center more over the past two weeks, but that remains a change-up; there will be full games where you won’t see it. New Orleans’ best Zion-at-center group — McCollum, Murphy, Ingram, Herbert Jones, Williamson — has logged only 22 minutes. I’d like to see more despite concerns about the defensive viability of Zion-at-center lineups.

It’s nice to have options, but it’s also nice to have certainty about who should play with whom — and when. The Pelicans don’t have that yet.

But their stars are so dynamic, they often make it work. The Pels have leaned more into Point Zion, and they are getting dynamite results with ultra-low-angle pick-and-rolls on the right wing between Williamson and their centers:

Jonas Valanciunas sets that pick below the dotted line. Any lower, and you are nearly out of bounds. That is so low that going under the screen becomes dicey for defenses; get chipped — as LeBron James does above — and Williamson, going to his strong hand, is on top of the basket. Those plays also put the Pelicans’ two weakest shooters in the action, maximizing spacing around the ball.

Even if you dodge the pick, Williamson is already close enough to the basket to plow to a layup. Help coverages:

cut

Most analysis of the Kings’ shortcomings — and this mildly disappointing season — tends to focus on their defense. The Kings have allowed 116 points per 100 possessions — identical to last season, when they ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency. They rank 18th today; offense jumped leaguewide, meaning the Kings moved up while allowing the same output.

Less attention has been paid to the Kings slipping from No. 1 in offense last season all the way to No. 14 now. Their shooting accuracy is largely unchanged. Their shots at the rim are down, their free throws are way down, and their transition game — so fearsome last season — has waned. The Kings are running less often, and less productive on their fast-break chances, per Cleaning The Glass.

They lack a certain oomph that smacked the league a year ago. Last season’s Kings added up to something greater than the sum of their parts. They were a blur of full-blast cuts and screens around De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. They run much of the same stuff, and sometimes with the same verve. But in down games, they can’t seem to summon the requisite juice. The system doesn’t work as well at three-quarters speed. Perhaps a come-down was inevitable with opponents ready and the team more focused on defense.

That said, the Kings at their best still bust out some of the league’s prettiest motion offense. They are the masters of an unusual baseline-to-baseline cut in which one player cuts from the weak side and toward the ball — sometimes almost bumping into Sacramento’s bigs rolling to the rim:

Clogging up the action like that is normally a no-no; the Kings can’t overdo this. But the defense never expects it, and Sacramento generates a few open looks every night by sprinkling it in. It is a little game of hide-and-seek within the game. Trey Lyles veers into the action on that empty side pick-and-roll, and the Atlanta Hawks never find him.

This is scripted. The Kings almost always set it up the same way — with a pick-and-roll on one side and three other Kings on the other:

Keegan Murray is the cutter there. He doesn’t get the ball, but he’s wide open.

. Green’s scoring is down. He’s shooting poorly from every range. He still flings himself at the rim without a plan, tossing up semi-blind twisting layups over help defenders. His pings between extremes of score-first tunnel-vision and skittish indecision.

He sometimes looks as if he’s overthinking, trapped between his instincts to score and what he knows the Houston Rockets coaches want. He is making the exact kinds of mistakes you’d expect from a 22-year-old. Those mistakes suddenly look out of place on a team with fading hopes of making the play-in tournament. Amen Thompson is coming for Green’s minutes.

The Rockets were smart — or lucky, or both — to hang on to Green at the trade deadline. He’s too young, too fast, too explosive to punt on now. Even before this prolonged slump calcified the Rockets’ place in the standings — they are 5-12 in their past 17 games, six of which came with Fred VanVleet among a pile of injured players — Houston was not good enough to justify a risky win-now younger-for-older trade. Live with the growing pains, bench Green in crunch time on bad nights and hope he learns to fit within a win-now group.

Green has made real strides on defense and smaller ones as a passer. He still probably has the best chance among Houston’s young core at developing into a lead perimeter orchestrator, though Thompson is coming for that too. (Given Alperen Sengun’s ascension, the Rockets probably won’t need that orchestrator as much as other teams might.)

The leap doesn’t require total reinvention. The first phase can be as simple as bagging two or three tough jumpers every game in favor of simple passes that keep the machine moving. Step one is mothballing this specific shot:

might need to bag

I have had a soft spot for Collins since the 2018-19 season, when he had somewhat of a breakout playoff performance for the Portland Trail Blazers. Collins was 21 then, in his second season, and it was reasonable to hope he might turn into the rare center who could both protect the rim and shoot 3s.

Injuries decimated him; Collins played only 39 games over the next three seasons. He was a worthy reclamation project for the San Antonio Spurs, and earned the two-year, $34.8 million extension he signed before this season.

But Collins’ fit around Victor Wembanyama was murky. The Spurs started both bigs to open the season, and nudged Collins into a role as floor-spacing center; he is jacking 4.7 3s per 36 minutes, by far a career high. He is shooting 26.7%.

And these are wide-open shots. The nearest defender is about 9 feet from Collins on average when he takes 3s — the 14th-highest figure among 295 players who have attempted at least 100 3s, per Second Spectrum.

For a while, Collins’ persistence was admirable. It takes fortitude to chuck through slumps and groaning crowds. About 10 or 15 games ago, his determination crossed that threshold from plucky to demoralizing. It’s time to turn more of those 3s into dribble handoffs and other actions.

That might happen organically. Collins is now a full-time center coming off the bench, meaning he can revert to diving to the rim and posting up mismatches. He is taking 3.6 3s per 36 minutes as a backup, down from 5.2 as a starter.

Collins has a mean, physical post game, and can flick hooks with either hand. He remains a reliable (if foul-prone) defender. There have been a lot of bigs who tried to stretch their range, discovered it didn’t work and revived their careers by returning to the bruising basics.

in the short roll

Johnson is perhaps the lone bright spot in a discouraging running-in-place season for the Atlanta Hawks — though it was nice seeing Onyeka Okongwu level up as a starter with Clint Capela out. (Of course, Okongwu is now injured.)

But Johnson is a huge, blaring bright spot. It was clear before the season Johnson was a valuable energy player who could rebound, cut for dunks and defend multiple positions. The biggest long-term question was whether he hit enough 3s to play alongside traditional centers. He’s up to 35% on almost four attempts per game, and actually shooting better — 38% to 30% — on non-corner 3s. His form looks good, and he’s letting it fly fast — against decent contests.

But the best part of Johnson’s breakout is the feel he has shown in between starting plays and finishing them. He’s dishing 3.5 dimes, a fantastic number for a power forward playing alongside two high-usage guards in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.

Johnson is comfortable making plays in space when defenders blitz Young. He has the floor mapped before he even catches the ball. Johnson has good touch on his passes and the confidence to squeeze lobs through tight spaces:

One glance at Murray on the left wing gets Devin Booker to hesitate helping on Capela — opening space for that feathery lob.

When good defenses close off passing lanes and block Johnson’s path to the rim, he can default to floaters and short jumpers:

That is veteran calm — the way Johnson catches in traffic, pump fakes Kevin Durant into the air, holds his balance and plops in that little jumper with Durant on the way down.

Johnson might be the Hawks’ second-best player and best screen-setter already. Atlanta has scored 1.305 points per possession on trips featuring a Johnson ball screen — eighth among 228 players who have set at least 100 picks, per Second Spectrum. Johnson has recorded assists on about 23% of those pick-and-rolls — 11th in that same sample.

Johnson is blossoming into a really good all-around player. He can play in any lineup type and guard almost any position.

This is a pivotal summer for the Hawks. Depending on how the next two months go, it could mark the end of the Murray-Young partnership. In building around Young, the Hawks tried to stack their roster with switchable defenders who could cover for Young without getting in his way on offense. Capela has mostly done his job at center, though he has declined a bit. De’Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey look the part, but they haven’t lived up to expectations on defense.

and Kyrie Irving, finding new ways to amplify each other

The Dallas Mavericks have won seven straight and are undefeated since remaking their team in the P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford deals at the deadline.

The two deals introduced massive long-term risks, but this season’s Mavs are undeniably better than they were two-plus weeks ago. Game-planning for Doncic in a playoff series gives opposing coaches night sweats. The Mavs have to defend at least at a league-average level to do real damage in the playoffs, but this offense is scary.

It’s getting scarier, because Doncic and Irving are working in tandem more since Irving’s return from injury on Feb. 5. They are running more pick-and-rolls together per game in that stretch, per Second Spectrum. Defenses try to preempt that by guarding Doncic and Irving with like-sized players so they can switch the Irving-Doncic two-man game without conceding mismatches.

Even then, the Mavs don’t have to devolve into your-turn, my-turn basketball — with Irving chilling while Doncic runs the show. They will default to that style a lot and still score like gangbusters; Irving is a dangerous spot-up shooter, and when the Mavs are humming, they toggle into instant Irving wing pick-and-rolls when Doncic swings the ball to him.

But the Mavs are borderline unguardable when they find creative ways to put Doncic and Irving together at center stage:

The Thunder have Jalen Williams on Irving and Luguentz Dort on Doncic — their most switchable wing combination. But it becomes much harder to execute that switch when you introduce a third player — as the Mavs do by having Gafford screen for Irving and then receive a back pick from Doncic in this Spain-style action. Dort lingers in the paint to help, and that gives Doncic time to flare outside for that triple.

The Mavs have scored 121 points per 100 possessions with Doncic and Irving on the floor, about equivalent to Boston’s top-ranked offense. I’d bet on that number going up as Irving and Doncic deepen their chemistry.

8. When big men remember what guards are for