2024 NBA mock draft: Ignite’s long-term future and Matas Buzelis’ rise

AJ Johnson | Illawarra Hawks | SG | Age: 19.2

Note: The Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns forfeited a 2024 second-round draft pick.

What’s the future of G League Ignite?

NBA commissioner Adam Silver’s annual All-Star Weekend media availability raised some major questions surrounding the future of the Ignite program, with Silver weighing in at length on the state of the team, which is 2-19 entering the final leg of its season.

Silver underscored a broader vision for how the NBA can impact youth player development in the U.S., but also expressed his stance that recent changes to college basketball with the inception of NIL collectives and increased transfer portal activity have perhaps decreased the need for the Ignite pathway.

“I think we are in the process of reassessing Team Ignite,” Silver said Saturday, “because now some of those same players who didn’t want to be one-and-done because they felt it was unfair, and wanted the ability not just to earn a living playing basketball but to do commercial deals that weren’t available to them at college, to hire professional agents … all of those same opportunities have become available to them.

“I’m not sure what the future of Team Ignite will be, because before there was a hole in the marketplace that we thought we were filling before doing that, and now my focus is turning to earlier development of those players.”

Ignite’s operating costs have required a significant financial commitment from the NBA, but the team has faced an uphill challenge building a fan base out of Henderson, Nevada. And while profits aren’t the primary object of the endeavor, there are certainly financial elements for the league to assess moving forward. The team’s struggles this season, coupled with Silver’s apparent shift in reasoning on the team’s function, would seem to place a potential endpoint on Ignite. It would be reasonable to expect changes, potentially in the coaching staff, in basketball operations and in the program’s overall strategy. There have been several success stories from the program over the past few years, but with Ignite currently owning the worst record in G League history and with the range of options available to players, the optics of continuing to fund the program appear to be increasingly difficult for the league.

Ignite entered the season with Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis projected as the top two prospects on our 2024 draft board and Izan Almansa in the top 10. All three players have seen their stock drop throughout a difficult season, even with Buzelis trending back up in recent weeks. Tyler Smith playing his way into a first-round projection has been a success story this season. The program has done a lot to help players such as MarJon Beauchamp and Dyson Daniels improve their reputations as prospects and ultimately their draft stock. But Ignite’s biggest-name products — Scoot Henderson, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga — have all faced challenging adjustments to the NBA.

The sheer number of prospects on the team has made it difficult to find optional roles and minutes for everyone. The lack of quality guard play has made it difficult to highlight the right players consistently. It’s generally easier to overlook the win-loss factor when player development is the overhead reason for the Ignite’s existence, but the challenging season the team has faced would seem to have called a lot of things into question.

It would be a surprise to see Ignite shut down without at least one more season. Prospects Dink Pate and Thierry Darlan remain under contract into next year, and the program is actively recruiting several high-profile prospects, including Khaman Maluach and ESPN 2025 No. 1 recruit A.J. Dybantsa. If Ignite can land a strong recruiting class, perhaps there’s an opportunity to turn things around and reassert the program’s place in the current prep-to-pro development landscape. Still, it would seem that Ignite will look different in some capacity moving forward, and the eventual fate of the team is certainly less clear than ever. — Jeremy Woo

Matas Buzelis is peaking at the right time

After missing the first three months of the G League season with ankle injuries, Buzelis was slow out of the gates but has been playing his best basketball of late. He’s shooting 39% from 3 over his past 10 games, has transformed himself from being a poor defender to being extremely impactful on and off the ball, and is soaking up increased usage successfully with ball-dominant Ron Holland now sidelined for the season with a thumb injury.

Buzelis was on a major platform this past weekend at the Rising Stars game, where he was able to match up with Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren, Charlotte’s Brandon Miller and many other of the NBA’s most talented young players. He showed his passing creativity, shot-making prowess, defensive playmaking instincts and all-around aggressiveness attacking opponents consistently — even hitting a game-winning turnaround jumper to advance to the championship game.

Matas Buzelis of the @nbagleague Ignite wins it ‼️

Team Detlef advances to the #PaniniRisingStars Championship and will face Team Jalen 🍿🍿 pic.twitter.com/eqErAqx8lw

— NBA (@NBA) February 17, 2024

Being able to showcase his tremendous size, improving frame and intriguing versatility on both ends of the floor was a major opportunity for Buzelis, something that will likely stick with the many NBA executives in attendance ahead of the pre-draft process.

Having weighed 185 pounds exactly a year ago, Buzelis is now at 205, which has unlocked some added explosiveness and an ability to initiate and play through contact more effectively on both ends of the floor. Buzelis is always looming as a weakside rim-protector and is doing a much better job of getting in a low stance, turning his hips and sliding his feet on the perimeter, staying down on fakes and showing impressive instincts staying attached to opponents.

His shot-creation prowess is something teams want to see him continue to make strides with, as he’s been somewhat of a mixed bag operating out of pick-and-roll and in isolation, not always able to beat defenders cleanly off the bounce and finish what he creates, due to his lack of strength. Buzelis’ jumper has been streaky — he’s 22-for-84 from 3 in 26 games — but has been on an upward trajectory, showing clean mechanics, a high release and confidence with his shot-making prowess, something teams will be studying closely in the pre-draft process.

Buzelis was the original No. 1 prospect in our very first mock draft released one year ago, and he’s putting himself back in that conversation with the way he’s playing of late. He’s got several more weeks to continue building momentum before his season comes to a close. He should continue to benefit from being a top offensive option for Ignite with Holland out. — Jonathan Givony

Why the pre-draft process will be important for Ron Holland

Holland — a projected top-10 pick — will have surgery on his right thumb, a source tells ESPN, ending his season with G League Ignite. The 6-7 wing hasn’t played since Jan. 31. The Ignite squad has 13 games remaining and is all but assured to miss the postseason with a 2-19 record and minus-12.5 point differential that ranks worst in G League history, dating back to 2001. Holland is expected to make a full recovery in time for the pre-draft process, explaining why he decided to have the surgery now despite looking healthy in warmups of the Rising Stars challenge this past weekend.

Holland came into the year as the projected No. 1 pick but has seen his stock slide considerably in an uneven campaign in which he struggled with scoring efficiency (24% on 3-pointers), averaged more turnovers than assists, and left a lot to be desired with his defense and his ability, or desire, to impact winning.

Holland’s reputation before Ignite was far different. He was universally lauded for his competitiveness, unselfishness and willingness to do the little things. He proved that numerous times in high school, representing the United States on the national team at the FIBA level (where he won two gold medals), and on the prep all-star circuit, where he regularly raised the level of intensity of the Nike Hoop Summit and McDonald’s All American games. Holland was viewed as the clear star of the 2023 recruiting class, which helped him emerge as the No. 2-ranked recruit, per ESPN.

NBA teams will be asking how much of Holland’s inefficient, and at times selfish, play this season was due to the lack of structure and accountability at Ignite, where he was thrust into an outsized role — currently ranked third in the G League in usage (28.5%) — despite not being a great ball handler or outside shooter.

They will also try to determine what to make of some of the more encouraging parts of his statistical profile, as he was still able to average 19.5 points, consistently draw fouls, shoot 75% from the free throw line, rebound, block shots, and get in passing lanes prolifically — all as an 18-year-old who won’t turn 19 until July. Unfortunately, the track record of the dozen G League Ignite alumni who preceded Holland has been decidedly mixed, raising questions about the stats many of them accumulated compared with how prepared they turned out to be entering the NBA.

The pre-draft process will be important for Holland, as teams will hope to see better perimeter shooting ability in workouts than what they saw this season and will have plenty of questions to ask of him in interviews. Holland is still a strong candidate to be picked in the lottery, but he has work ahead of him to remind teams of what they liked about him before the season. — Givony

Tyler Smith helping outlook with consistent, improved play

Smith has been the biggest success story of G League Ignite’s season, helping elevate his standing from second-round projection entering the year to now potentially knocking on the door of the NBA draft lottery.

Smith gives Ignite much-needed spacing from the stretch-5 position, being a significant playmaker picking and popping, coming off pindowns, rising up for jab-step 3-pointers and even pulling up off the dribble out of isolation with impressive shot-making prowess. He’s hitting 39% of his 3s this season, while also showing flashes of ability as a pick-and-roll finisher, cutter and offensive rebounder and scoring with his back to the basket and facing up from the midpost. He’s a skilled, versatile and instinctual scorer entering the NBA, where teams are looking for 6-10, long-armed forwards exactly in his mold.

Although his scoring exploits didn’t translate to the Rising Stars game on All-Star Weekend, he did show off his improved motor crashing the glass, leaking out in transition and generating turnovers to help his team advance to the championship game over Victor Wembanyama and Team Pau.

Smith has looked a step slow with his processing speed all season on both ends of the floor, struggling when asked to execute advanced actions and showing an average feel for the game as a passer, decision-maker and off-ball defender. He has been playing much harder, though, using his length to get in passing lanes or protect the rim when parked under the basket and to improve as a rebounder. He’s still fairly foul prone and hasn’t been able to get Ignite’s coaching staff to fully trust him enough to increase his playing time, which has hovered around 20-23 minutes for most of the season.

Scouts have been wondering whether Ignite will eventually move Smith to his more natural position of power forward and have him operate alongside Izan Almansa in the starting unit, but that hasn’t happened yet, as the team has preferred to keep him in a fairly confined role.

Smith seems to be making strides regardless, with scorching play over the past nine games in particular, averaging 16.8 points in 23 minutes while shooting 60% for 2 and 43% for 3. He made big shots down the stretch of both of Ignite’s wins in recent weeks, being entrusted with playcalls out of timeouts when his team needed a bucket.

With Holland out, and Buzelis potentially finishing his season early as well, Smith could see more opportunity to show what he can do in an outsized role, which will be interesting for scouts to monitor. — Givony

Much to prove still for Izan Almansa

Almansa made a small but important cameo helping his G League colleagues advance to the championship game of the Rising Stars challenge, containing and then blocking Washington Wizards rookie Bilal Coulibaly ferociously in transition and running the floor for an athletic dunk.

Almansa has been more aggressive on both ends of the floor as the season has moved on and should benefit from an additional usage rate now that Holland is done for the season. He still ranks last among the eight Ignite prospects in usage rate (15.1%), even though he ranks first in scoring efficiency (62% true shooting).

NBA teams would like to see Almansa start to experiment with taking perimeter jumpers with more regularity, as he has attempted only 20 3-pointers this season, hitting just three in 35 games, while converting 55% of his free throw attempts. Standing 6-10, and weighing around 225 pounds, Almansa is somewhat stuck between the power forward and center positions from an NBA standpoint on both ends of the floor, and doesn’t have exceptional explosiveness to compensate. Some teams struggle to envision how to fit in a role-playing big man who doesn’t protect the rim or stretch the floor at a high level. There’s little question that the G League setting has not put Almansa in the best light, especially on a team with limited pick-and-roll playmaking that’s been unable to take advantage of his biggest offensive strength.

Similarly to Holland, Almansa’s pre-Ignite reputation was built heavily around his competitiveness and the contributions he makes to winning with the instincts and feel for the game he brings on both ends. On an Ignite squad that currently ranks as the worst team in G League history in terms of net efficiency, it’s hard to make that case for Almansa when his team is getting blown out as often as it is. Unlike Holland, Almansa did not have the green light from the coaching staff to take any shot he wanted to rack up counting stats, putting him in a much more precarious position heading into June.