Why the NBA buyout landscape looks different this season

While the NBA offseason is still a couple months away, free agency actually started immediately after the Feb. 8 NBA trade deadline.

Spencer Dinwiddie was seen sitting behind the Dallas Mavericks’ bench in New York, hours after being waived by the Toronto Raptors. The next night in Los Angeles, Dinwiddie was being courted by Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka. Dinwiddie would eventually sign a one-year, $1.5 million contract with the Lakers.

Dinwiddie, who had been traded from the Brooklyn Nets, joined Kyle Lowry, Thaddeus Young, Danilo Gallinari and Delon Wright as players who were waived after the deadline and signed with a playoff contender: Lowry with his hometown Philadelphia 76ers, Young with the Phoenix Suns, Gallinari to the Milwaukee Bucks and Wright with the Miami Heat.

Those five players will be eligible to play in the playoffs with their new teams, since they were waived by 11:59 p.m. ET on March 1. Players do not have to sign with a team before March 1, but do have to be waived before then (except for players on a 10-day contract, who are playoff eligible, even if the contract expires after March 1).

Who else could join those five players? ESPN insiders Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton break down the second free agency period (better known as the post-trade deadline waiver period), starting with how a change in the collective bargaining agreement has impacted high spending teams.

How the CBA impacts the NBA buyout landscape

Bobby: Remember back in March 2021 when the Nets and Lakers signed former All-Stars Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Drummond after those three players were bought out of their contract?

Or last February when former MVP Russell Westbrook was bought out of his contract in Utah, clearing the way to sign with the LA Clippers?

The signings sent the NBA world into a frenzy, because in each case the team signing the bought-out players already ranked in the top five in salary, contributing to a leaguewide perception of “the rich getting richer.”

So changes were made, and under the new CBA, none of these four signings would have been allowed.

(In reality, none of those players had any impact on the title race. Aldridge played five games before briefly retiring. Griffin finished the season averaging a career-low 10 points per game. Drummond went from starter to coming off the bench, and the Lakers lost in the first round. Westbrook did average 38.5 minutes per game in the playoffs, but an injury-depleted Clippers team also lost in the first round.)

Under the new rules, teams over the first and second luxury tax aprons face restrictions on how they can add to their roster in trades and signing free agents. One of the rules in place eliminates apron teams from signing a player who is waived during the regular season and had a pre-existing salary of at least $12.4 million (the non-tax midlevel exception).

The list of apron teams includes the Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Heat, Bucks and Suns — none of whom could have signed Dinwiddie or Lowry after they were waived, because of their high salaries going into the season. So far this post-deadline period, only two players, Lowry and Wright, have agreed to a true contract buyout (Dinwiddie, Young, Gallinari and others were simply placed on waivers without agreeing to any kind of salary reduction).

Kevin, I know we are only seven months into the CBA and this is the first post-trade deadline waiver period. But did the NBA get this rule right or was it an overreaction? And does the rule change impact players exploring the buyout option?

Kevin: I’ve been vocal in the past that the buyouts produced more hot air than real impact on the court worth legislating. Still, I think the NBA’s solution was limited enough that it’s probably OK. One impact we did see is teams not necessarily waiting until after the trade deadline to fill open roster spots, which is almost certainly a positive.

Most notably, the Clippers were able to add Daniel Theis — whose original $9.1 million salary wasn’t large enough to subject him to the new restrictions — back in November without worrying about what better option might come along. Meanwhile, Theis got to a desired situation months before the deadline and his former team (the Indiana Pacers) saved more money on a buyout, making that move a win for everybody involved.

With the Lakers and Sixers staying safely below the first luxury tax apron, there were enough desirable teams to join this year that I don’t think Dinwiddie and Lowry were constrained in their decisions. That could change in future seasons.

The one tweak I’d consider is giving players more of a say in situations like Dinwiddie’s where the player did not initiate a buyout and was waived outright by his new team. (In this case, the Raptors didn’t want to potentially be on the hook for Dinwiddie’s $1.5 million incentive for reaching 50 games played.) Same with Young in Brooklyn, though his salary was low enough he was still able to join the Suns. Should we apply the restrictions only to players who actually give money up in a buyout?

Bobby: That is a good question. Under your proposed scenario, Dinwiddie would have been free to sign with all 28 teams and not just the ones below the apron. Initially I think the league got it right because the language in the CBA covers players waived and not just the ones amending their contract to reduce the compensation owed by their prior team.

Even with the new restrictions, three of the five teams who signed players who were waived or bought out after the deadline were apron teams (Miami, Milwaukee and Phoenix). If the NBA really wanted to restrict high spending teams from signing players who were waived during the regular season, they would have set the salary threshold at the veteran minimum exception instead of the midlevel exception.

Assessing NBA buyout players

Bobby: Let’s dive into the players that have signed (or have been reported that will) since the trade deadline. What signing is the most impactful and what team has benefited?

Kevin: I think it’s Dinwiddie, who has played 69 minutes in his first two games with the Lakers — both wins. Dinwiddie’s shooting slipped this season to the point where he didn’t have much trade value at a cap hit of $20-plus million. At $1.5 million for the rest of the season with the Lakers, however, Dinwiddie is an incredible value and offers the Lakers another reliable perimeter option in a rotation that has been short of them with Gabe Vincent sidelined.

I’m curious to see how much Lowry plays in Philadelphia when he debuts after the All-Star break. When the 76ers are at full strength, I’m not sure Lowry should have a much larger role than Patrick Beverley had before he was traded to the Bucks. It’s possible the biggest benefit Philly gets from the backcourt shuffle is ultimately the second-round pick Milwaukee sent in return for Beverley.

I really like Miami backfilling Lowry’s spot on the roster with Wright, who’s arguably been the better player this season. Wright offers more playmaking on a Heat roster that gets it primarily from players who aren’t naturally point guards, and he’s got the size at 6-foot-5 to fit in a variety of different lineups for Erik Spoelstra.

Is there anyone else who hasn’t been bought out yet you’re keeping an eye on before the deadline for players to be waived and remain eligible for the playoffs?

Bobby: There are two for me but for different reasons: Marcus Morris Sr. and Gary Trent Jr.

Morris was traded to the San Antonio Spurs as part of a three-team deal with Philadelphia and the Indiana Pacers. I thought he was a logical fit to return back to the 76ers. However, because the move was executed as a true three-team trade and not two separate deals, Morris would not be eligible to re-sign with the 76ers if and when he gets waived. At the moment he is still on the Spurs roster and has $5.2 million left owed to him on his $17 million salary.

Minnesota makes the most sense as a landing spot for Morris if he is waived. The Timberwolves have Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid in the frontcourt. Morris is not going to win a playoff game, but he does provide an insurance policy with his size. He has played in 67 playoff games, starting 45, and averaging 12.5 points and 5.1 rebounds.

Trent is on an $18.5 million expiring contract in Toronto and there are no indications that we will see his name on the waiver wire before March 1, for multiple reasons.

First, the 25-year-old Trent would lose Bird rights by being waived, which would mean the Raptors would have to use cap space or an exception to re-sign him. It would also limit his options for exploring sign-and-trade deals with a new team.

Additionally, becoming a “buyout player” has been proven to limit earning potential on a subsequent contract. There have been 22 players bought out of their contract since the 2020-21 regular season started. No player out of that group has signed for more than $9 million in the first year of their next contract.

Also, because Trent’s current salary is $18.5 million, he’d be ineligible to sign with the seven apron teams after a buyout.

Still, in the unlikely scenario that Trent does go the buyout route, there will be suitors for him. Trent is shooting a career-high 41.8% on 3-pointers this season, which ranks in the 83rd percentile at his position per Cleaning the Glass

The next tier of players after Morris and Trent, consists of Shake Milton, Troy Brown Jr., Furkan Korkmaz, Patty Mills, Cedi Osman and Danuel House Jr.

But there is no incentive for the Pistons to waive Milton or Brown because both have a non-guaranteed contract next season. The same applies to teammate Evan Fournier, who has a team option, and both Seth Curry and Davis Bertans in Charlotte. Curry has a non-guaranteed contract and Bertans’ $16 million salary is only guaranteed for $5.2 million.

What are your thoughts on the above players and is there anyone that I am missing? And how should teams view former lottery picks Killian Hayes and James Bouknight?

Kevin: I think a buyout would only make sense for Trent if limited playing time might affect his market this summer. Instead, Trent is starting and averaging 27.2 minutes per game since the trade deadline, so I don’t see him going anywhere else.

Morris’ bounceback to 40% 3-point shooting this season after hitting 36% in 2022-23 makes him a more viable candidate for playing time on a contender. Still, I think he’d ideally be insurance, like many buyout players. Otto Porter Jr. could also fit into that category if the Utah Jazz buy him out.

I do think Hayes deserves a fresh start somewhere that isn’t Detroit after he blocked the development of the Pistons’ younger guards this season. One challenge for him is this is the last year Hayes will have eligibility for a two-way contract. Given Bouknight’s history of driving infractions, including a 2022 DWI arrest, I don’t think he merits a roster spot at this point.

Bobby: One more thing before we wrap this up.

Besides the free agents available and the possible buyouts, keep an eye on players currently on two-way contracts. Since Feb. 8, Lindy Waters III, GG Jackson, Keon Ellis, Craig Porter Jr. and Duop Reath have all had their two-way contracts converted to standard deals (which means they’re no longer subject to a 50-game limit, and they’re eligible to play in the playoffs). Brooklyn, for example, could use its open roster spot to convert the two-way deal of Jalen Wilson.

The team can convert a two-way contract up until April 14 but cannot sign a player to a two-way after March 3, which means there could be more movement in this area in the next two weeks.

Projected postseason teams and roster spots

Atlanta (0): Exception: Minimum, partial non-tax midlevel and biannual

Boston* (1): Exception: Minimum

Chicago (1): Exception: Minimum, partial non-tax midlevel and biannual

Note: $1.7 million below the luxury tax

Cleveland (1): Exception: Minimum, partial non-tax midlevel and biannual

Note: $1.8 million below the luxury tax

Dallas (1): Exception: Minimum, partial non-tax midlevel and biannual

Note: $2.7 million below the luxury tax

Denver (0): Exception: Minimum

Golden State* (2): Exception: Minimum

Indiana (1): Exception: Minimum and partial room midlevel

LA Clippers* (0): Exception: Minimum

LA Lakers (0): Exception: Minimum

Miami* (0): Exception: Minimum

Milwaukee* (0): Exception: Minimum

Minnesota (2): Exception: Minimum, partial non-tax midlevel and biannual

Note: $1.6 million below the tax

New Orleans (1): Exception: Minimum, partial non-tax midlevel and biannual

Note: $2.1 million below the tax

New York (3): Exception: Minimum, partial non-tax midlevel and biannual

Note: $2.5 million below the tax

Oklahoma City (0): Exception: Minimum

Orlando (0): Exception: Minimum

Philadelphia (2): Exception: Minimum and partial non-tax midlevel

Note: $2.1 million below the tax

Phoenix* (1): Exception: Minimum

Sacramento (0): Exception: Minimum

*- Team is above the apron and cannot sign a player waived who had a pre-waiver salary of $12.4 million or more.

Projected lottery teams and roster spots

Brooklyn (1)

Charlotte (1)

Detroit (0)

Houston (0)

Memphis (0)

Portland (0)

San Antonio (0)

Toronto (2)

Utah (1)

Washington (2)

Possible buyout (waiver) and free agent candidates

Patty Mills | Atlanta Hawks

Shake Milton | Detroit Pistons

Mike Muscala | Detroit Pistons