Lowe: The moment that transformed the New York Knicks into contenders

The New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks didn’t deal directly with one another on what emerged as a wild 2024 trade deadline, but their actions still seemed somehow connected — and have since January 2019, when Dallas traded two first-round picks (among other things) to New York to pair Kristaps Porzingis with their budding superstar rookie Luka Doncic.

The Mavericks had bottomed out the year before and moved up in the draft for Doncic. It was immediately clear Doncic would become an All-NBA-level star — the hardest thing to find, the dream centerpiece for a rebuild.

With Porzingis gone the next season, New York plummeted to 17-65. They landed at No. 3 in the lottery, dashing their dreams of finding their own tentpole young star — Zion Williamson or Ja Morant. New York selected the workmanlike RJ Barrett at No. 3. When they re-signed Barrett to an extension in August 2022, the Knicks and their fans rejoiced with some knowing wryness: It was the first time New York had extended and kept one of its own first-round picks since Charlie Ward — drafted in 1994. The Knicks hailed the Barrett extension as a sign of new stability even while winking at their chaotic, chase-every-shiny-object past. (Barrett was preceded by two major whiffs in the top-10 — Kevin Knox II and Frank Ntilkina. The Knicks did not start this project from a position of strength or major lottery luck.)

New York grew proud of its young core of first-round picks — Barrett and the group that followed: Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes. All four are gone now, and it is a tribute to how skillfully the Knicks have proceeded along this build-up that it doesn’t feel at all wasteful — as if the Knicks have mortgaged their future in flipping away all their home-grown first-round picks.

And the single biggest reason for that is Jalen Brunson — the (now) All-Star point guard New York swiped from Dallas in free agency in the summer of 2022.

The NBA even penalized the Knicks for starting free agency discussions with Brunson before they were technically allowed to do so. By then, New York had already hired Brunson’s father, Rick, as an assistant coach under Tom Thibodeau — a job Rick Brunson had held under Thibodeau with both the Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves. Three months before signing Jalen Brunson, some members of New York’s brass brazenly showed up in Dallas to watch him in a Mavericks first-round playoff game. Those Mavericks made the conference finals — proof of where a player like Doncic could take a franchise even in his early 20s.

The Mavs were ahead of the game — and certainly ahead of the Knicks. But they had been too slow to offer Brunson a contract extension, sending him into unrestricted free agency after that 2022 playoff run. The Knicks pounced.

Brunson is now 27. He changed the trajectory of the entire Knicks franchise. He became so good, the Knicks had no choice but to try to win big on his timeline.

Brunson’s emergence rendered Quickley expendable. Quickley was (and still is) due a pricey new contract, and the Knicks knew he would never produce up to that dollar amount as Brunson’s understudy. The Knicks turned Quickley and Barrett into the 26-year-old OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors — an archetypal 3-and-D player whose effectiveness without the ball meshes more easily with Brunson and Julius Randle.

Randle blocked Toppin, and so the Knicks traded Toppin too — to the Indiana Pacers — before Toppin’s cheap rookie deal gave way to the bigger contract coming next. They got only two second-round picks for Toppin, but what they really got was the flexibility to sign two important support players: Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo. Hart is 28. DiVincenzo is 27 — Brunson’s age. (They did, after all, attend college together at Villanova.)

Only Grimes was sacrificed for players outside the Brunson timeline: Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, two 30-something perimeter veterans acquired Thursday as part of a larger deal with the Detroit Pistons. The Knicks did not trade any future first-round picks in that deal — or in any deal since acquiring Hart from the Portland Trail Blazers last season.

Burks is on an expiring contract, and brings a combination of shooting and playmaking off the bench the Knicks have missed since trading Quickley. Only $2 million of Bogdanovic’s $19 million salary for next season is guaranteed — meaning his contract functions almost the precise way Evan Fournier’s would have had the Knicks kept Fournier. It could end up a handy trade asset in a mega-deal. (Fournier’s deal has a $19 million team option for next season; the Knicks shipped him to Detroit as part of their trade with the Pistons.) Bogdanovic is an ace shooter who unlocks a lot of interesting lineup combinations. For now, he provides a safety net while Anunoby recovers from elbow surgery.

Burks and Bogdanovic bolster the present-day Knicks without compromising New York’s ability to acquire another All-Star-level player in the future. The Knicks own all their first-round picks; four extra first-rounders of varying quality from Dallas, Detroit, the Washington Wizards and the Milwaukee Bucks; and a bundle of second-round picks.

The Boston Celtics are the favorites in the East, but New York has a puncher’s chance at making the Finals now. That’s how good this team is. They could also lose in the first round if they draw the wrong opponent — say, the Sixers with Joel Embiid healthy again — or in the second round, especially if they get stuck on Boston’s side of the bracket. That’s how thin the margins can be when you are in the top-third of the NBA but not at the very top. But the Knicks’ ceiling before this trade was probably a spirited conference finals run. It’s higher now.

If they get Mitchell Robinson back healthy at some point, their starting five will be Brunson, DiVincenzo, Anunoby, Randle and Robinson. The foursome of Burks, Hart, Bogdanovic and Isaiah Hartenstein would make up the bulk of backup units — with Thibodeau perhaps staggering Brunson and Randle so that one is always on the floor in big games. (Thibodeau can use Miles McBride if he wants to go 10 deep. Precious Achiuwa, acquired in the Anunoby deal, would become high-quality insurance in this scenario.)

That is a deep, nasty team. New York can put a lot of shooting on the floor around Randle and Brunson — and four shooters around one rim-runner when Randle rests. (Bogdanovic, Anunoby and Hart can play together — with Brunson and a center — in bigger lineups when Randle is on the bench.) They have more ammunition to play Randle at center as a change-up, though Thibodeau has never shown much interest in doing that (and with good reason given how well Robinson and Hartenstein have played).

It is startling how far the Knicks have come in part because of how gradually it all developed — the steady drip, drip, drip of smart moves coalescing into something larger. You almost didn’t notice it unfolding right in front of you, and yet here it is today — boom. None of it happens without the one transformational moment of signing Brunson away from Dallas.

The Mavs’ transformational moment was swapping picks in the 2018 draft with the Atlanta Hawks for Doncic — with Atlanta selecting Trae Young.

(The Hawks failed to find a workable trade for Dejounte Murray on Thursday despite talks with the Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets and New Orleans Pelicans among other suitors, sources said. Not all of those talks got very far. The Lakers stood pat despite pressure from LeBron James, who holds a player option for next season. They would not include Austin Reaves in any Murray talks, sources said, correctly concluding that any swap of Reaves for Murray was more or less a lateral move.

The Lakers’ offer for Murray thus maxed out around some combination of D’Angelo Russell, filler salary, their 2029 first-round pick — the only first-rounder they can trade — and perhaps either Max Christie or Jalen Hood-Schifino. Murray is better than Russell — and a better fit for the Lakers, who need knifing speed on the perimeter — but not so much better than the currently solid version of Russell, as to merit the inclusion of all that extra stuff. It’s unclear if the Hawks would have done that trade anyway; I’m dubious. It’s also unclear what, if anything, the Lakers made available in any firm offer.

The Lakers will now have three first-round picks to trade in the offseason, and these teams might yet dance again. Depending on how the next two-plus months unfold for the Hawks, perhaps the Lakers at that point might probe the availability of Young instead of Murray. If the Hawks ever make Young available, the Lakers would have competition for him. The broader league is watching Young and the Hawks now. Young’s ability as an offensive engine — a passing genius with the range to break any defense — is undeniable. But there is curiosity about what kind of ecosystem he and his team need around him to succeed at the highest levels.

Dallas had perhaps the most interesting and riskiest deadline Thursday, reinventing itself yet again around Doncic in two separate trades for and P.J. Washington. To nab Gafford — presumably as Dereck Lively II’s backup — they traded Richaun Holmes and a 2024 first-round pick via the Thunder. To get that Thunder pick, the Mavs had to give Oklahoma City the right to swap first-rounders with them in 2028; Doncic can enter unrestricted free agency in 2026, though the Mavs will also likely have the ability to offer him a supermax extension before then. The Thunder, meanwhile, project to be awesome in 2028. That swap could be dangerous.

A first-round pick of any sort is a high-ish price for a backup, but Gafford figures to play a lot as Lively learns his way; Lively is averaging only 26 minutes per game. Gafford is a decent defender, and the Mavs can now play a rim-running center — nirvana for Doncic — all 48 minutes, though it’s unclear what that might mean for mainstays Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell. (Kleber at least can play power forward because of his shooting.)

In a bigger deal, the Mavs traded Grant Williams, Seth Curry and a top-two protected 2027 first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets for Washington. You might recall the Mavs surrendered swap rights on their 2030 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs in the three-way deal that netted them Williams all of seven months ago. The Spurs with Victor Wembanyama are a solid bet to be good in that season — and therefore pick toward the end of the first round. The 2030 Mavs are harder to project.

So in a roundabout way, the Mavs traded a top-two 2027 pick and that 2030 swap for Washington — paying to undo the Williams signing (or upgrade it, depending on how you look at life). They owe the Brooklyn Nets an unprotected first-round pick in 2029 stemming from their trade for Kyrie Irving — a deal made largely to undo the damage of losing Brunson in free agency. (That trade also cost them Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, the latter of whom probably could have netted a late first-round pick in some deal constructions Thursday, sources said. The Nets chose to keep him. They flipped Royce O’Neale to the Phoenix Suns for three second-round picks, a tidy piece of business for both teams. O’Neale will round out the Suns’ depth on the wing, and give them a live body who moves the ball fast and likes to set random screens — a needed dose of fast-paced unpredictability for Phoenix. O’Neale also gives the Suns access to more lineups with Kevin Durant at center.)

The Mavs discussed deals with the Wizards involving that 2027 first-round pick going to Washington for Kyle Kuzma, sources said, but pivoted to the Hornets once those talks fizzled. The Wizards told opposing teams all along they would be happy to hold onto Kuzma, sources said. Several playoff teams will be able to trade more future first-round picks in the offseason — more assets to potentially throw at sellers like Washington.

That was true of Dallas — until they expended what assets they had on Thursday. Dallas still owes the Knicks one first-round pick for Porzingis.

Those outgoing draft assets in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 leave the Mavs very exposed. Doncic is not under contract yet for any of those seasons. Irving is almost 32. Those trades also limit the Mavs’ flexibility in making upgrades to the roster going forward. (They still have some swaps to move, and some pick flexibility will open up once they trade that one last pick to the Knicks.) They aren’t all-in, but they’re close. What precisely do they have?

This is a good team. It is better than the one Dallas had on Thursday morning. Gafford fortifies reserve units. Washington is a more well-rounded offensive player than Williams, and the Mavs needed someone else — a frontcourt player specifically — who can shoot and make plays on the move. Washington can do that, and punish smaller guys on mismatches. Josh Green seems to be turning the corner as a supporting player on offense, though he has peeked around this same corner several times before slinking backward.

The Mavs have a chance anytime Doncic plays. Their offense will be very good as long as Irving and Doncic are healthy.

But the top of the West is fierce. The Mavs remain average on defense, and Washington is a downgrade on Williams there. Gafford offsets that to some degree, but it’s unclear how much. The Mavs need to become a championship-caliber team in the next two or three seasons, or something close, to justify the level of future risk they have taken on. Doncic has already proven he is good enough to lead an unremarkable roster to the conference finals. That season — 2021-22 — is also the only time in the Doncic era the Mavs have advanced past the first round. Irving has missed 22 of 52 games this season.