NBA trade grades 2023-24: Grizzlies send Steven Adams to Rockets for Victor Oladipo, picks

The NBA trade deadline is less than a week away, and things will begin to heat up around the league ahead of Feb. 8.

On Feb. 1, the Memphis Grizzlies sent center Steven Adams to the Houston Rockets in exchange for guard Victor Oladipo and three second-round draft picks.

The Miami Heat acquired veteran guard Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets on Jan. 23 for six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry and a 2027 first-round pick as the race for the Eastern Conference playoffs heats up.

The Toronto Raptors have stayed busy, first by sending two-time All-Star Pascal Siakam to the Indiana Pacers in a three-team trade also involving the New Orleans Pelicans. The Raptors received forward Bruce Brown, guard Kira Lewis Jr., Jordan Nwora, two 2024 first-round picks and a 2026 first-round pick, while New Orleans got cash considerations from the Pacers. Indiana also received a future second-round pick in the deal.

That was the second notable trade involving Toronto. In December, they traded for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley while sending OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks. Could the addition of an All-Defensive second-team wing in Anunoby impact the Knicks’ hopes of a deep playoff run this season? What might the Toronto homecoming of Barrett and the hot shooting of Quickley mean for the future of the Raptors?

We grade that trade — and all the trades! — below:

LATEST DEALS

Feb. 1

Grizzlies send Steven Adams to Rockets for Victor Oladipo, picks

Memphis Grizzlies get:

G Victor Oladipo

Two 2024 second-round picks

One 2025 second-round pick

Houston Rockets get:

C Steven Adams

Memphis Grizzlies grade: B-

The timing of this trade — featuring two players who have not played all season due to injury and coming days after a slightly lower projected figure for the 2024-25 salary cap — might not be a coincidence. With Steven Adams and a team option for guard Luke Kennard on the books, the Grizzlies projected to be some $20-plus million over the new $171 million tax line after factoring in a likely lottery pick. Now, they’ll wipe out Adams’ $12.6 million by dealing for Victor Oladipo in the final year of his contract.

The last time Memphis paid the luxury tax was 2005-06, back when the system was far less punitive than it is now. At some point, the small-market Grizzlies may find it worthwhile to pay the tax to build a contending team around Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. However, pushing beyond the second apron would have been difficult to justify what turned into a season filled with disappointment and injuries to Bane, Morant and Marcus Smart.

Adams’ injury was a factor in Memphis’ fall from the No. 2 seed a year ago to 13th in the Western Conference thus far. The Grizzlies announced in October that Adams’ right knee, which sidelined him the second half of the 2022-23 campaign, required season-ending surgery. Without both Adams and backup Brandon Clarke, who hasn’t played since an Achilles rupture last March, Memphis has been searching for consistent play at center all season.

The Grizzlies gave 27 starts to Bismack Biyombo in between signing him in November and waiving him last month to make room for two-way standout Vince Williams Jr. on the full roster. Although Clarke should be back for the start of the 2024-25 season, they will have to utilize some of their newfound financial flexibility — or their lottery pick — to replace Adams’ physical presence alongside Jackson in the frontcourt.

How Memphis operates this offseason will depend on Kennard’s $14.8 million team option. Declining the option would give the Grizzlies just enough wiggle room to utilize the taxpayer portion of their mid-level exception while staying under the current tax projection. If Memphis decides to keep Kennard, the most accurate outside shooter on a team that ranks 28th in 3-point percentage, the Grizzlies would operate over the tax line and other money-saving moves might be in store.

One other option for Memphis: utilizing a trade exception for Adams’ $12.6 million salary generated by this trade. Because Oladipo is in the last year of his contract, the Grizzlies can fit him into the Morant disabled player exception, meaning they’re essentially treated as sending Adams out for nothing. That may come to nothing because of luxury-tax concerns, but it’s an interesting wrinkle to the deal.

It would certainly help Memphis if the cap comes in higher than projected, often the case in past seasons. The current projection, however, might have helped convince the Grizzlies that rising league revenues wouldn’t bail them out of a challenging financial future.

Houston Rockets grade: B+

A trade like this one was why the Rockets were reluctant to waive guard Kevin Porter Jr. after his arrest last September on assault charges against his former girlfriend Kysre Gondrezick, which resulted in a deal where Porter subsequently plead guilty last month to misdemeanor assault and a harassment violation.

Instead, Houston traded Porter’s contract to the Oklahoma City Thunder in October — who immediately waived him — in exchange for Oladipo, who underwent surgery last April to repair his patellar tendon and has yet to return to the court. That allowed the Rockets to use Oladipo’s $9.45 million expiring contract as matching salary.

Although Adams won’t help Houston on the court this season, he could have an important role in 2024-25 as a backup to rising star Alperen Sengun. Before his injury, Adams was the kind of defensive-minded veteran Houston sought to add in the middle by attempting to sign Brook Lopez of the Milwaukee Bucks in free agency last summer. We’ll see whether Adams can return to that level next fall, 21 months after his last NBA game.

Alternatively, the Rockets could turn around and include Adams in yet another trade in pursuit of a star player. By adding Adams’ $12.6 million expiring salary to 2024-25 team options for Jeff Green ($9.6 million) and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.1 million) — along with Jock Landale’s $8 million non-guaranteed salary — Houston will have some $37 million in contracts to offer with no guaranteed money beyond next season.

Jan. 23

Miami Heat acquire Rozier in exchange for Lowry

Charlotte Hornets get:

G Kyle Lowry

2027 first-round pick

Miami Heat get:

G Terry Rozier

Charlotte Hornets grade: A

Rozier has been one of the few success stories for the Hornets in recent years. Acquired as part of a sign-and-trade when Kemba Walker left for the Boston Celtics, he outplayed his initial three-year, $58 million contract and retained positive trade value even after signing the largest possible extension to that deal. It’s an encouraging change of direction for Charlotte to part with Rozier via trade at what is likely the peak of his value.

The Hornets have resisted rebuilding in order to chase as many wins as possible, which has limited their ceiling. With Ball on the roster, a full teardown is unrealistic for the team, but ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski’s report on the front office’s plan to use the cap flexibility created by this deal to add more picks in future trades is positive news.

There are a couple of ways the Hornets can do that. In Lowry and Gordon Hayward ($31.5 million), Charlotte now holds two of the largest expiring contracts in the NBA. Trading either player to a team looking to shed future obligations could return the Hornets a first-round pick while getting their new team a veteran who could provide value the rest of this season.

Since Lowry was acquired so close to the Feb. 8 trade deadline, the Hornets can’t combine his salary with other players in a trade, but they could still bring back players making up to $37 million-plus in return under expanded salary matching rules in the new collective bargaining agreement.

If the Hornets don’t find a deal between now and the deadline, they’ll head into free agency with around a projected $50 million in cap space, allowing them to take on a big contract from a team looking to shed salary.

This is a normal operation for teams positioned in the lottery like Charlotte, whose 10-31 record is fourth-worst in the NBA.The Hornets have rarely added significant draft capital, however. The first-round pick Charlotte picked up in this deal is the only one besides the team’s own on the ledger going forward, while the Hornets still remain obligated to send out their own 2025 first-round pick in the scenario where they make the playoffs next season. (If Charlotte is in the lottery each of the next two years, that pick converts into second-rounders in 2026 and 2027.)

Admittedly, dealing Rozier also makes it more likely the Hornets’ own 2024 pick is again near the top of the lottery. Lowry should rent in Charlotte, with a buyout as a reasonable expectation if no deal materializes before the deadline. The Hornets will miss Rozier’s shot creation as a backstop for Ball, as lineups with neither player on the court ranked in the fourth percentile league-wide in offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass analysis.

With this season already lost, Charlotte shouldn’t be worried about salvaging competitiveness the rest of the way. The Hornets instead need to find ways to build around a core of Ball and 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller. Both the first-round pick Charlotte picked up and whatever results from increased cap flexibility will help the Hornets do so.

Miami Heat grade: B

Rozier, who will turn 30 in March, is quietly on track for the best season of his nine-year NBA career. Taking on an increased shot creation role when LaMelo Ball was sidelined, Rozier has bumped both his usage (27%) and assist rate (9.1 per 100 possessions) to career highs without hampering his efficiency. Rozier’s .574 true shooting percentage (TS%) is a fraction off his career high of .575 set in 2020-21.

Looking only at those key offensive indicators, Rozier arguably belongs in the All-Star conversation. His advanced offensive stats are remarkably similar to those of Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, a likely reserve pick who has posted a .579 TS% on 27% usage with 8.6 assists per 100 possessions.

The natural question is how much we should discount Rozier’s impressive box score stats for the dreadful team environment in which he’s operated. Much of Rozier’s high-usage success has come as a point guard in the absence of Ball. Rozier averaged 25.0 PPG and 7.4 APG during that month and a half stretch, but the Hornets went 3-15 without Ball.

Digging into the numbers, that drop-off was actually about the defensive end of the court, where opponents have been red-hot from 3 against the Hornets. Charlotte averaged 109.4 points per 100 possessions with Rozier at point guard, per analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats, not a massive decline from the Hornets’ 112.1 offensive rating with Ball at the point.

That’s an encouraging sign for Miami, which presumably will slide Rozier into Lowry’s role as the nominal point guard. Given Jimmy Butler’s ability to play point forward and the option of running the offense through center Bam Adebayo, the Heat will be far less reliant on Rozier to set up his teammates than Charlotte was without Ball.

The fit issue will be how Rozier complements guard Tyler Herro in the Heat backcourt. There is a high degree of similarity between the two players, both of whom can handle the ball but are also off-ball threats because of their 3-point shooting (37% for Rozier and 40% for Herro, a bit better than his 38.5% career mark).

Shifting a bit of Herro’s career-high 29% usage to Rozier, who will surely take more shots than Lowry (13% usage), should be a positive. Herro has never posted a TS% as strong as Rozier’s current mark and he’s slumped a bit to .549 this season because of career-low 46% accuracy inside the arc.

Defensively, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra could face more of an adjustment fitting in Rozier. Although Rozier (6-foot-1) is an inch taller than Lowry, his slighter frame gives him less defensive versatility. About 47% of Rozier’s defensive matchups this season have been against point guards, per analysis of Second Spectrum tracking data, nearly as many as Herro (23%) and Lowry (26%) combined.

The good news is Rozier has experience in switch-heavy defenses like Miami often employs. Although Rozier has switched on just 11% of the picks he’s defended this season, according to Second Spectrum, he did so more than twice as often (23% of picks) in 2021-22 under Hornets coach James Borrego — more frequently than Lowry (17%) and Herro (16%) have this season.

Rozier and Herro could still find themselves somewhat challenged against backcourts with too much size to hide either of them on less threatening options — like the East-leading Boston Celtics. This could mean one of them ends up on the bench down the stretch in favor of bigger lineups, with Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Cody Martin flanking Adebayo and Butler.

It’s a risk the Heat are willing to take to improve their offense, which ranks 20th in per-possession scoring this season and 28th so far in January. Miami went from 25th in offensive rating in the regular season to seventh in the playoffs en route to the 2023 NBA Finals, but a similar leap isn’t likely because the Heat aren’t underperforming from 3-point range like they did when ranking 27th in accuracy during the 2022-23 regular season. (Miami is currently seventh in 3-point percentage.)

Rozier will help, but this deal alone doesn’t seem like enough to lift the Heat out of the crowded second tier in the Eastern Conference that includes the Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. Miami will again have to pull a couple of playoff upsets over better teams on paper to return to the Finals for the third time in the Butler-Adebayo era.

Down the road, the Heat may still be able to work a bigger deal. Matching salary might actually be easier with Rozier on the books for $24.9 million in 2024-25 and $26.6 million in 2025-26, salaries that look reasonable based on his current level of play. Miami would have lost Lowry as matching salary when his contract expired this summer.

After dealing a lottery-protected 2027 first-rounder and unprotected in 2028 in this trade, the Heat are now a bit more limited in the picks they can offer via trade. After making this year’s pick, on draft night Miami could offer that player’s rights, an unprotected pick in either 2029 or 2030 and potentially a third first-rounder in 2031 conditional on the pick sent to Charlotte not rolling over to 2028. Given how distant most of that pick value is, the Heat will probably be relying more on the young talent currently on their roster — most notably Jaquez — to get in the bidding if Cleveland’s New York Knicks: A-

This is an interesting trade for many reasons, not least the Knicks playing against their history by prioritizing a role player who’s effective at both ends of the court over bigger names potentially available for trade.

Too often throughout New York’s history of underperforming its market, the Knicks have gone after All-Stars just as they’re about to hit the decline phase of their career, from Bob McAdoo to Amar’e Stoudemire. Having peaked at 17.1 PPG, Anunoby is both not that kind of star and, at age 26, just reaching his NBA peak.

Anunoby gives the Knicks the ace perimeter defender they’ve lacked in the Tom Thibodeau era. An All-Defensive second-team pick a year ago, Anunoby was still probably underrated at that end of the court after leading the league in steals per game. I had him on my first team.

Offensively, New York is giving up a lot of shot creation in this deal. Barrett (27%) and Quickley (24%) were third and fourth on the team in usage, respectively, behind leading scorers Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. Only once in his career has Anunoby’s usage rate been higher than league average (20%), and it’s down a bit to 18% this season as Toronto has shifted more of its offense to ascending star Scottie Barnes.

In terms of the starting lineup, that’s surely not a bad thing. Barrett has never scored with anything approaching league-average efficiency. This season’s .536 true shooting percentage, a career high, still ranks 52nd of the 57 NBA regulars who have a usage rate of 25% or higher this season. A 34% career 3-point shooter (33% this season), Barrett did little to space the court for Brunson and Randle. Opponents will have to give more respect to Anunoby, who’s at 37.4% this season and 37.5% for his career.

The real question is how this trade affects the Knicks’ strong bench lineups. For the third consecutive year, Quickley has the best on-court net rating among New York full-season regulars, per NBA Advanced Stats. (And, last year, when Quickley was bested by trade deadline pickup Josh Hart, Hart too was part of the Knicks’ second unit.)

To some degree, that says less about Quickley vis-à-vis New York’s starters — particularly Brunson — and more about how the Knicks were able to beat up on weaker opposing benches. To maintain that same success, Thibodeau will probably have to change his approach on staggering the minutes of Brunson and Randle to mix them in with the reserves.

Brunson and Randle have played 986 minutes together, Buddy Hield of the Indiana Pacers, who could help this season with the possibility of re-signing using Bird rights as a backup plan next summer.

To that end, Philadelphia won on the margins not only by shedding Tucker but also by landing Martin, whose minimum salary will give him a minuscule cap hold as an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Sixers could retain the rights to Martin, Maxey and Milwaukee Bucks get:

G Damian Lillard

San Antonio Spurs in the summer of 2015. Now Lillard joins Giannis and Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. They’ve also locked in Lillard’s trade value without having to risk the possibility of an injury or age-related decline making it more difficult to deal him than it is coming off an All-NBA season.