Every NBA team needs a big wing.
There are very few certainties heading into the dawning NBA trade season, in part due to a bloated middle class — 19 teams are two games over .500 or above — and the 20-team postseason keeping everyone in some level of contention. It makes it hard to determine which teams will be making deals.
There is one unique circumstance to keep in mind. The NBA is in the middle of phasing in new rules for high-spending teams. Those deep into the luxury tax, particularly more than $17.5 million over the salary cap line known as the “second apron,” are facing a series of limitations on transactions that make it harder to construct big trades.
Not all of the rules are in place yet but it will go into effect at the end of the regular season. This might encourage some of these teams to try to make a big move now before they can’t. For example, the coming rules helped convince the Phoenix Suns to pursue a Bradley Beal trade last summer knowing they might not be able to make such a deal in the near future.
After all that, the only thing that is clear in the above statement is every team needs size on the perimeter. This is why there is going to be so much attention on the Toronto Raptors’ potential free-agent-to-be trade targets, O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, and the Chicago Bulls’ three valuable wings: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso.
The teams with the worst records will also be watched, including the Detroit Pistons (Bojan Bogdanovic), Washington Wizards (Kyle Kuzma) and the San Antonio Spurs (Keldon Johnson).
So with the understanding that those names could probably be linked to half the league should they become available in a deal, here’s a look at what contenders might be looking for as they enter the trade season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Celtics
Roster hole: Quality rotation player
Why: The Celtics have six premium starters and it makes them one of the NBA’s best teams. But after that, coach Joe Mazzulla has less experienced/proven players on his bench. Getting one more quality rotation player, at any position, would give Boston options.
What they have to trade: The Celtics have a $6.2 million trade exception and can deal two of their own first-rounders. But they have a $220 million payroll, including taxes, which might limit further spending.
Chances of a significant trade: Unlikely. The Celtics are a possible player in the buyout market but can’t sign a player who had an original salary of more than $12.4 million as a second apron team.
Milwaukee Bucks
Roster hole: Perimeter defense
Why: The Bucks lack size and quickness on the outside, which constantly applies pressure to their second line of defense in the paint.
What they have to trade: They have traded almost all of their draft picks but do have the Portland Trail Blazers’ second-round selection this season, which has some value. As a second apron team, however, they are limited in constructing a deal.
Chances of a significant trade: Unlikely. They will be active in the buyout market, but only if a bought-out player has a salary of less than $12.4 million this season because of second apron rules.
Philadelphia 76ers
Roster hole: Ball handler
Why: After trading James Harden, the Sixers are thin at point guard behind Tyrese Maxey.
What they have to trade: The 76ers have up to four first-round picks they can trade and several extra second-round selections plus a roster full of expiring contracts useful in deadline deals.
Chances of a significant trade: Good, though it depends on how strongly the Sixers want to protect cap space for next summer.
Orlando Magic
Roster hole: Shooting
Why: Armed with one of the league’s best defenses, the contending Magic rank below the middle in offense and near the bottom in 3-point percentage.
What they have to trade: The Magic own all their draft picks plus an extra first-rounder from the Denver Nuggets. They have some players with tradeable contracts, including Gary Harris, Joe Ingles and Chuma Okeke.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. The Magic will have to see where they are in the standings closer to the Feb. 8 deadline.
Indiana Pacers
Roster hole: Second star
Why: The Pacers need perimeter defense but with the emergence of Tyrese Haliburton, they really want another franchise cornerstone to pair with him. The hope is their style of play and bright future would make a star they traded for be willing to stay.
What they have to trade: They have all their own first-round picks plus up to three firsts in the 2024 draft. With the lowest payroll in the league and Buddy Hield’s $19 million expiring contract, they have options.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. It will come down to opportunity.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Roster hole: Backup point guard
Why: Ricky Rubio is taking time away due to mental health and Ty Jerome’s ankle injury have left the Cavs a guard short.
What they have to trade: The Cavs aren’t permitted to trade any first-round picks. They have limited trade assets on the roster with the expiring contract of Isaac Okoro ($9 million) being the most significant.
Chances of a significant trade: Unlikely. Below the tax aprons, they could be a buyout destination.
New York Knicks
Roster hole: A star, any star
Why: The Knicks have a solid, deep defense-first team. But they lack a difference-making talent and have been trying to acquire one for as long as anyone can remember.
What they have to trade: They have seven tradeable first-round picks and 12 tradeable second-round picks.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. The Knicks could make a massive offer if a star comes to the market but they have shown patience waiting for the perfect move.
Miami Heat
Roster hole: Scoring guard
Why: The Heat wanted Damian Lillard for a reason, to pair with stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They’re still in that market.
What they have to trade: They can move two future first-rounders plus the massive $30 million contract of Kyle Lowry. They have some interesting young players on the roster, including rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr., and two trade exceptions ($7.2 million, $4.7 million) that can’t be combined. With a payroll exceeding $200 million, including tax, the Heat might be careful if a deal adds money.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. The Heat are always in the mix when a star becomes available.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Minnesota Timberwolves
Roster hole: Perimeter scoring
Why: The Timberwolves have the best defense in the NBA and tremendous size, but rank in the bottom half in offense. Minnesota could use another scoring threat to help Anthony Edwards on the perimeter.
What they have to trade: The Timberwolves can’t trade a first, they have a couple of second-rounders left, but are in salary cap jail after this season. Kyle Anderson has a $9 million expiring salary but it’s hard to see Minnesota taking on money after this season.
Chances of a significant trade: Unlikely. The team is below the apron but could be a buyout destination.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Roster hole: Rebounding
Why: The Thunder have great depth, but they don’t have an overabundance of size, and often play smaller lineups that can turn into a weak spot.
What they have to trade: Oklahoma City has the NBA’s most loaded portfolio of future draft picks with 15 first-round picks and 22 second-round picks over the next seven years. In addition, the Thunder have an array of young talent on their roster.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. General manager Sam Presti cautioned about going too fast and not fully evaluating the roster at the start of the season, saying the organization had to “finish our breakfast.”
Denver Nuggets
Roster hole: Bench depth
Why: The defending champs lost a few veteran role players and have tried to replace them with young players. Denver might want a bit more experience for the playoffs.
What they have to trade: The Nuggets can’t trade any first-round picks and have just a couple of second-rounders to use. Their only expiring contracts are minimum salary players.
Chances of a significant trade: Highly unlikely. They’re a buyout destination, but are right on the edge of the second apron.
Los Angeles Lakers
Roster hole: Wing scoring, shooting
Why: The Lakers have great size and good wing defenders, but they start two players — Taurean Prince and Cam Reddish — who aren’t strong shooters. They are also one of the weakest 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.
What they have to trade: The Lakers can trade their 2029 or 2030 first-round pick but are right on the edge of the second apron, which would bring trade restrictions on 2030 if they move into it. They have a few second-rounders as well.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. The Lakers like their depth and are cautious of depleting it in a major move like they did two years ago in trading for Russell Westbrook.
Dallas Mavericks
Roster hole: 3-and-D wing
Why: The Mavericks traded Dorian Finney-Smith for Kyrie Irving last season and have been missing that starter-level role since.
What they have to trade: They owe two future first-round picks elsewhere, meaning they can only trade one at the moment. They have some quality young players but not much in the way of expiring contracts. Valuable shooter Tim Hardaway Jr. has had his name in rumors in the past.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. The Mavericks were in the trade market this past summer, but they are close to the luxury tax line, roughly $3 million under, and that could be a factor.
Sacramento Kings
Roster hole: 3-and-D wing
Why: The Kings are loaded offensively but could use a wing defender with size to use in playoff situations.
What they have to trade: The Kings owe one first-rounder to the Atlanta Hawks but are limited to trading two because of the pick’s protections. They have cap flexibility but just one significant expiring contract, Malik Monk’s $9.9 million.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. The front office believes in the current core and the bidding for players they’d want may be too rich at this point.
Phoenix Suns
Roster hole: Defenders
Why: The Suns are loaded offensively but rely on mostly minimum salary players to deliver in defensive roles. What they need more than anything is good health for their stars.
What they have to trade: Not much. They’ve traded every first-rounder and pick swap they can and, as a second apron team, have little flexibility. Phoenix does have a $6.5 million trade exception, but with a nearly $240 million payroll, including taxes, it may be hard to use it.
Chances of a significant trade: Unlikely.
LA Clippers
Roster hole: 3-and-D wing
Why: Trading for James Harden affected the Clippers’ depth on the wing.
What they have to trade: The Clippers can’t trade any first-round picks. They have a few young prospects but as a second apron team with a $314 million payroll, including luxury taxes, they are quite limited. They’ve already signed one buyout player, Daniel Theis, and could look for more.
Chances of a significant trade: Unlikely.
New Orleans Pelicans
Roster hole: Shooting
Why: The Pelicans have a few young shooters in Jordan Hawkins and Matt Ryan who have helped fill the gaps, but they often play lineups with multiple non-shooters that can limit them.
What they have to trade: They have six tradeable first-round picks that make them a threat for a large deal. But New Orleans is currently projected to be in the luxury tax for the first time in team history and are 10th in the West, making it possible they could end up offloading players rather than acquiring.
Chances of a significant trade: Maybe. But it’s hard to see ownership supporting more spending based on history.
Golden State Warriors
Roster hole: Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins not playing like 3-and-D stars
Why: The Warriors’ payroll, including luxury taxes, is $400 million. They need the players they’re paying to deliver. The idea of making a significant trade to add talent is hard to see at this point.
What they have to trade: Chris Paul’s $30.8 million salary could, in theory, be used as an expiring contract in a deal. They can trade their 2028 first-rounder and have young prospects such as Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga, but it’s hard to see the Warriors going this route.
Chances of a significant trade: Unlikely. They could search the buyout market but as a second apron team, they’d be limited.
