NBA predictions 2023-24: Our expert picks for MVP and every major award this season

Which NBA icons will win the league’s biggest awards in 2023-24?

Will Philadelphia 76ers star center Joel Embiid go back to back, or will two-time MVP Nikola Jokic earn his third trophy in four seasons? How about 2023 fourth-place finisher Jayson Tatum? Where do two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic come in?

As for the rookies, everyone has their eyes on the San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in the draft. But other top picks, including the Portland Trail Blazers’ Scoot Henderson and the Charlotte Hornets’ Brandon Miller, might have something to say about that. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s 2022 first-round pick, Chet Holmgren, is also back in the running after missing all of last season.

Will Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra lead his players back to the Finals after falling short in June? Will Chris Paul prove useful off the bench for the Golden State Warriors?

We asked the members of our Summer Forecast panel to rank their top three choices for the NBA’s six major awards with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.

Here are the results:

Note: Our 2023-24 NBA Summer Forecast continues Wednesday with win-loss predictions for the Eastern Conference. On Monday, we revealed our picks for the teams that will have the biggest turnaround this season and the teams that’ll be filled with dysfunction, and answered the season’s most burning questions, including which superstar will request a trade next.

Who will win NBA MVP?

Both Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo won back-to-back MVPs — and our panel believes the 2024 MVP will land back in Denver.

Will last year’s winner, Joel Embiid, emerge from the Sixers’ drama and repeat for the league’s most coveted award? Our panel has him in the top five, but both Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum have pushed ahead of him as serious first-time contenders.

1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 77 points (42.3% of first-place votes)

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 58 points (23.1%)

3. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 31 points (11.5%)

4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: 13 points (7.7%)

5. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: 12 points

6. Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns: 11 points (3.8%)

T-7. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns: 7 points (3.8%)

T-7. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors: 7 points

8. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat: 6 points

T-9. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 5 points (3.8%)

T-9. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers: 5 points (3.8%)

T-10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 1 point

T-10. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 1 point

Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?

In our closest race so far, Chet Holmgren edged out Victor Wembanyama for 2023-24 Rookie of the Year. Holmgren, the No. 2 pick who missed the 2022-23 season because of a foot injury, triumphed over Wemby by just three points.

Portland’s Scoot Henderson and Houston’s Amen Thompson are also serious contenders, according to our panel, despite exiting early from their summer league debuts because of injuries.

1. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 80 points (34.6% of first-place votes)

2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 77 points (42.3%)

3. Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers: 53 points (15.4%)

4. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 15 points (7.7%)

5. Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets: 5 points (7.7%)

6. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons: 4 points (3.8%)

Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?

Our panel believes the Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. will claim his second consecutive DPOY award. The 2023 All-Star headlined the league’s All-Defensive first team and led the NBA in blocks per game (3.0).

Our panel is also predicting Miami’s Bam Adebayo and Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who won in 2019-20, to make a run for the award.

1. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies: 54 points (30.8% of first-place votes)

2. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat: 26 points (15.4%)

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 21 points (3.8%)

T-4. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 18 points (7.7%)

T-4. Marcus Smart, Memphis Grizzlies: 18 points (7.7%)

T-5. Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn Nets: 17 points (7.7%)

T-5. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 17 points (11.5%)

6. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 15 points (7.7%)

7. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors: 13 points

8. Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks: 9 points (3.8%)

9. Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves: 7 points

10. Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics: 5 points (3.8%)

Others receiving votes: Alex Caruso, Chicago Bulls; Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks; Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs; Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers; Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers

Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?

Our experts say the Golden State Warriors struck gold with point guard Chris Paul, who joins one of the deepest teams in the league. The 12-time All-Star is entering his 19th season, and although Paul has never come off the bench, his contributions as a reserve could strengthen the Warriors’ title chances.

But not far behind in our poll is Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Austin Reaves, who had a breakout campaign in his second season in the league, shooting 52.9% from the field, 39.8% from 3 and 86.4% from the line. As an unrestricted free agent, Reaves recently agreed to a four-year, $52 million deal

Our panel rounded out the top three with LA Clippers point guard Russell Westbrook, who is entering his second year with the team after signing a two-year, $7.8 million deal.

1. Chris Paul, Golden State Warriors: 42 points (26.9% of first-place votes)

2. Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers: 30 points (15.4%)

3. Russell Westbrook, LA Clippers: 26 points (11.5%)

4. Tyler Herro, Miami Heat: 21 points (11.5%)

T-5. Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks: 18 points (3.8%)

T-5. Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings: 18 points (3.8%)

6. Malcolm Brogdon, Boston Celtics: 17 points (7.7%)

T-7. Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks: 16 points (3.8%)

T-7. Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz: 16 points (7.7%)

T-8. Norman Powell, LA Clippers: 5 points (3.8%)

T-8. Obi Toppin, Indiana Pacers: 5 points (3.8%)

9. Alex Caruso, Chicago Bulls: 4 points

T-10. Brandon Clarke, Memphis Grizzlies: 3 points

T-10. Bruce Brown, Indiana Pacers: 3 points

T-10. Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans: 3 points

T-10. Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers: 3 points

T-10. Kevin Love, Miami Heat: 3 points

Others receiving votes: Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic

Who will win Most Improved Player?

Detroit Pistons point guard Cade Cunningham soared high above the rest for Most Improved Player, according to our panel.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft still has a lot to prove entering his third year and coming off season-ending surgery. In just 12 games last season, he averaged 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6 assists per game.

Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley and Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr., the No. 3 picks in the 2021 and 2022 NBA drafts, respectively, round out our panel’s top three.

1. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons: 81 points (53.8% of first-place votes)

2. Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets: 25 points (11.5%)

3. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 22 points (3.8%)

T-4. Jalen Green, Houston Rockets: 16 points (3.8%)

T-4. Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder: 16 points (3.8%)

5. Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers: 15 points (3.8%)

6. Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder: 14 points (3.8%)

7. Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans: 13 points (3.8%)

8. Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz: 7 points (3.8%)

T-9. Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers: 5 points (3.8%)

T-9. Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn Nets: 5 points (3.8%)

T-10. Jalen Green, Houston Rockets: 3 points

T-10. Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets: 3 points

T-10. Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets: 3 points

T-10. Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks: 3 points

Others receiving votes: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets

Who will win Coach of the Year?

In a season in which the Thunder were widely expected to struggle, coach Mark Daigneault led the team to a surprising 40-42 record and a play-in tournament loss. He finished second in the Coach of the Year voting last season after leading the team to a 16-win improvement, despite losing Holmgren for the year. The organization just signed Daigneault to a multiyear contract extension.