NBA intel: Early trade predictions, Knecht’s 3s, East vs. West fixes

After a bounce-back week, the NBA’s Eastern Conference, now up to

Heading into Thursday’s games, the Western Conference owned a 41-20 record against the East, the most lopsided mark since conferences were created in 1950-51. And it has been one of the biggest talking points among players, coaches and executives in the early going.

We break down what league sources are saying around a growing East-West divide, as well as why struggling contenders won’t be rushing to make trades, intel on two surprising Rookie of the Year standouts and why a young star’s contract raised eyebrows in Orlando.

Jump to a section:
Execs on fixing the East-West divide
Early season trades? Our latest intel
A Laker, a Sixer crash the ROY party
The Magic deal that had GMs buzzing
Jokic is setting a new MVP standard

, perhaps 2-3 years from now, with Seattle and Las Vegas as the top candidates. If that happens, there will potentially be a battle among the Mississippi River teams (the Minnesota Timberwolves, Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans) to be the “fortunate” one to move East to balance the conferences at 16 clubs apiece.

Instead of dealing with that thorny competition, West executives told ESPN they believe both issues can be corrected by dropping conferences altogether and seeding teams 1 through 16 regardless of geography. The concept has been raised before. But expansion, the thinking goes, would create a reason to take a fresh look.

“It would be the right thing to do for the health of the league,” one West general manager said. “It’s not just about fairness, it’s about giving the fans the best playoff product.”

Bontemps: As someone living in New York and watching a lot of Eastern Conference ball, a 1 through 16 playoff bracket sounds awfully appealing. But any change like this would require 23 teams — more than 75% of the league — to vote in favor of it. And it is exceedingly difficult to see how the NBA could convince eight of the 15 East owners to vote against their self-interest and make reaching the playoffs that much tougher for their teams.

If the Vegas-Seattle expansion were to come to fruition, as we reported in September, Minnesota is arguably the most logical option from a geographical standpoint. There are six East cities as close, or closer by air — Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland and Toronto — than Denver, Minnesota’s closest West foe.

to another hyperextended left knee in the process. The injury-ravaged Pelicans are 4-12 after losing by a combined 69 points on back-to-back nights to the Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers. At the other end of the standings, the Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors are sitting atop their respective conferences, showing the potential for this season to be much more wide-open than expected.

And yet, the widespread belief among scouts and executives is that there won’t be significant moves in the near term. Why? There simply aren’t a lot of early-season moves to begin with, and now franchises must face restrictions in the new collective bargaining agreement — specifically the trigger for being hard-capped at the first luxury tax apron if a team takes in a dollar more than it sends out in a trade.

Avoiding that mechanism is why the New York Knicks made the Karl-Anthony Towns trade before the season, when rosters could expand to 20 players and New York had more salary cap flexibility to make the math work. Other teams will be reluctant to put themselves under any apron restrictions until they absolutely have to.

Windhorst: As one GM told ESPN: “We were looking at a trade concept the other day and there were three reasons the other team wouldn’t be allowed to do it — one of the rules I didn’t even know about.”

In the past, the trade season started Dec. 15, the date when players signed to free agent contracts the season before could be moved. Also, players who were traded in early December could be traded again by the trade deadline in February. Because of the new rules on taking in salary in deals, making a trade in December might prevent teams from making another one in February.

Bontemps: There are already 13 teams — Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, LA Clippers, Memphis, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Toronto and Washington — hard-capped at the first apron. Another four — Boston, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Phoenix — are facing additional second apron restrictions, including not being able to combine players in trades.

in Houston and Donovan Clingan in Portland — are being blocked by veterans for playing time.

But just about no one had Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain and Los Angeles Lakers guard Dalton Knecht — the 16th and 17th picks — atop the award race one month into the season. But that’s exactly where they sit.

McCain, in particular, has had a stunning start as virtually the only bright spot in a truly miserable opening month in Philadelphia. He has scored at least 20 points in six straight games and almost single-handedly helped the 76ers to one of their two wins this season. “He’s one of the most confident, self-assured kids you’ll ever meet,” one scout said.

“He’s smart, he’s got guile and he’s got an NBA skill,” an executive who saw McCain play during this recent run told ESPN. “I thought watching him in the draft process he’d be a 10-year pro, and he’s showing that so far … he’s not playing with any pressure and he’s getting an unexpected opportunity and running with it.”

Windhorst: Scouts are skeptical about three-year college players, turned off by almost all four-year college players and usually slam the notebook on the mere idea of drafting a five-year college player such as Knecht. Teams draft on upside and 23-year-olds and upside don’t go together, which is why scouts lowered Knecht on their draft boards.

But the Lakers saw impressive measurables at the draft combine: a 6-foot-9 wingspan, a 39-inch vertical and the fastest shuttle run in the field. As one longtime talent evaluator pointed out: Knecht led the SEC in scoring last season, and the list of players who have done that — Pete Maravich, Bernard King, Shaquille O’Neal and Dominique Wilkins, among them — should’ve earned him more respect on draft night.

Bontemps: For nearly two decades, one of the best positions to be in as an NBA player was a jump shooter alongside LeBron James. Knecht has settled right into that role for the Lakers. And for a team that has been starving for scoring outside of James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell over the past two seasons, Knecht has a chance to make a real impact as a rookie.

“He’s proof of why it can work — if they have a sure NBA skill,” one scout told ESPN of Knecht’s path to the NBA. “He has one in his shot, and shooting is at a premium.”

to a five-year, $224 million full max contract

Some GMs who were negotiating rookie contract extensions with their own players at the time complained to ESPN that the Magic had inflated the market even as the new salary rules applied pressure to stop handing out as many max deals. One top agent told ESPN he’d even prepared his young extension-eligible players for a “recession” over the summer because of teams’ fear of the new rules. Wagner’s contract flew in the face of all of that.

As for the Magic themselves, sources said, they didn’t hesitate with the offer because they love Wagner’s work ethic and character, plus his physical tools. And they pointed to his free throw shooting, 85% for his career, as an indication his jump shot would round into form.

There was one other factor. The salary cap is projected to jump 30% over the next three seasons as new television money phases in, and the Magic believe Wagner’s salary number will have a different look once that happens.

Wagner has looked terrific and helped carry the Magic through All-Star Paolo Banchero’s absence over the past three weeks. During the Magic’s six-game win streak that was snapped Wednesday, Wagner averaged 29.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists and shot 37% from 3-point range. After scoring just 14 points and missing all four 3-pointers against the Clippers, he poured in 37 points — including the game-winning 3 — one night later against the Lakers. Wagner’s offense, plus the Magic’s second-ranked defense, has silenced any contract critics for now.

Bontemps: It remains to be seen just how high Orlando’s ceiling is, but it doesn’t take long to see resemblances to the road Boston has taken. This Magic squad is nowhere near the offensive juggernaut the Celtics have become, but, like the Celtics star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Orlando is building its roster around a pair of do-it-all wings in Banchero and Wagner, the latter of whom has impressed several scouts interviewed by ESPN.

“The shot is inconsistent, but if that comes around, he’s a heck of a player,” one scout said of Wagner’s game. “He does a little bit of everything.”

The comparisons to Boston don’t stop there. The combination of Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black has a chance, in the long term, to be as good defensively as Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. Black, in particular, has taken a significant step forward in his second season.

“I think he can be their long-term point guard,” another scout said. “That allows Suggs to play off the ball, where he looks more comfortable.”

is finding new heights to reach.

“There have been a lot of times over the years that I’ve gotten a stat after a game and I see that Nikola has done something that only Wilt Chamberlain has ever done before,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone told ESPN. “But this year, we’re starting to get stats that not even Wilt has done.”

Jokic has missed three games over the past week tending to a family matter, but there is hope he will return for Friday’s home game against Dallas. The Nuggets went 1-2 in those games, and Jokic’s case for winning a fourth MVP in the past five years only improved.

Jokic is averaging 29.7 points and a league-leading 13.7 rebounds, 11.7 assists and 56% shooting on 3-pointers. When Jokic is on the court this season, the Nuggets score an astonishing 31 more points per 100 possessions than when he sits.

When LeBron James won MVPs in four of five seasons from 2009 to 2013, the biggest such differential for him was 15.5 points in the 2009-10 season. Malone was an assistant coach on that James team.

“What he’s doing,” Malone said of Jokic’s start to 2024-25, “I never seen before.”

What’s the latest in the Celtics’ ownership situation?

Bontemps: Thursday, Wyc Grousbeck doubled down on his intention to continue as the governor of the Celtics through 2028, despite currently having his controlling stake in the franchise up for sale.