NBA panic meter: 11 teams already worried about playoffs?

The 2024-25 NBA regular season is still less than a month old, but it’s never too early for teams to worry about slow starts.

Sure, coaches and players might not admit they’re panicking. But when a team starts losing, it’s hard not to feel a sense of the season slipping away. Take this quote from New Orleans Pelicans star Zion Williamson a few weeks ago:

“It’s a high level of urgency but not in a panic kind of way. It’s more of a focused, coming-together-as-a-team kind of way. …I don’t think it’s a cause for panic. We just need to lock in.”

Williamson was careful to make it clear he and his teammates were not overly concerned — but it certainly sounded like the pressure was creeping in. (Not that it seemed to have much effect, as New Orleans has won just two of nine games since Williamson gave that quote.)

So which NBA teams should be experiencing that sense of (let’s just be honest here) … panic?

Let’s go through all 11 of the teams that had at least a 35% chance to make the playoffs before the season — based on the average of their preseason BPI forecast and their implied probabilities from ESPN BET — and whose playoff odds have dipped since then, classifying them by just how worried they should be now.

Jump to a panic level:
High! | On Edge | Starting to Worry | Remaining Calm

, Trey Murphy III — have missed at least half of the team’s games so far, and offseason addition (and former All-Star) Dejounte Murray has suited up for one game. A full-strength Pelicans roster would be faring better, without question, but the few well-known players who’ve been in the lineup are also producing below last season’s levels, with Brandon Ingram (minus-0.4 points/100 possessions), Jose Alvarado (minus-0.3) and Javonte Green (minus-0.9) seeing big dips in their Estimated RAPTOR ratings.

What’s next? You need two hands to count the number of Pelicans currently out multiple weeks — a group Alvarado recently joined with a strained hamstring — so it’s going to be a while before we see a healthy version of this team. If or when that happens, they’ll likely be digging out of a huge hole; New Orleans would have to play at a 54-win pace per 82 games to even match last season’s 49-33 record, a task that will only get tougher from here.

Milwaukee Bucks (5-9)

Preseason playoff odds: 92.4%
Current playoff odds: 63.8%
Difference: -28.6%

As if Milwaukee’s Doc Rivers Era needed more second-guessing, the Bucks have gotten off to one of the worst 13-game starts in franchise history (4-9) and their playoff odds have dropped nearly 30 percentage points since opening night. In part because they added defensively challenged Damian Lillard as their second star, the Bucks were already used to dealing with an uncharacteristically weak defensive showing last season (ranking 19th despite the presence of former Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo), and that hasn’t changed much in 2024-25 (they currently rank 15th).

But while last year’s Bucks at least ranked sixth on offense, this year’s version is down to 18th and now rates below league average at both ends of the floor.

What’s next? Add in their many injury problems — both Lillard and Antetokounmpo are struggling to stay healthy, as is Khris Middleton — and Milwaukee would seem to be in major panic mode.

already starting to swirl around Giannis, Milwaukee can’t afford to mess around much longer before turning things around.

On Edge

Philadelphia 76ers (2-11)

Preseason playoff odds: 95.8%
Current playoff odds: 77.0%
Difference: -18.8%

With Paul George joining Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers were supposed to be a superteam. But Philadelphia has shown few signs of being that team so far. George has played six games and Embiid only recently made his season debut, between injuries and a suspension for shoving a reporter. Mostly leaning on Maxey — who has since hit the injured list himself — plus a struggling Kelly Oubre Jr., a surprisingly good rookie in Jared McCain and a bunch of role players, the Sixers rank outside the NBA’s top 20 on both offense and defense, checking in at a shockingly low No. 27 in net rating so far in 2024-25.

What’s next? Somehow, the Sixers’ playoff odds are still over 75%, but they also fall into the camp of teams who can’t keep piling up losses for much longer. Incredibly, the Embiid/Maxey/George Big Three still has yet to play a single minute together in any capacity (including the preseason). If they can sync up and stay healthy for the playoffs, that is still a fearsome trio of stars to contend with. But will it happen? The Sixers should be worried about how bad the Maxey-only version of this team has looked, especially given how much Philadelphia plans on load managing its stars this season.

Dallas Mavericks (7-7)

Preseason playoff odds: 87.3%
Current playoff odds: 71.5%
Difference: -15.8%

Similar to Minnesota — the team Dallas beat in the Western Conference finals (more on them below) — the belief was that the Mavericks would build on last season’s NBA Finals run and remain a top championship contender in 2024-25. But the Mavs seem to have returned to the maddening inconsistency that has plagued them off and on throughout the Luka-Kyrie partnership: Sometimes they’ll look like that Finals squad, and sometimes they lose to the dreadful Utah Jazz. We’re also still waiting for Luka Doncic to pop off for some truly monster advanced metrics — they’ll come eventually, but he’s scoring at his lowest level per 100 possessions since 2018-19, with a below-average 54.1% true shooting percentage.

What’s next? It’s uncanny how much the Mavs resemble the Wolves, to the point that Dallas also ranks a lot higher in net rating (ninth, at plus-3.9) than we’d expect from its pedestrian record. You never want to fall too far behind in the conference and risk flirting with the play-in, and a 16-percentage-point loss in playoff odds is concerning, but as long as Doncic and Irving are healthy — yes, Doncic’s knee and Irving’s shoulder are worth monitoring — Dallas can fix things quickly if some of their close losses even out into wins.

Minnesota Timberwolves (8-6)

Preseason playoff odds: 84.1%
Current playoff odds: 72.9%
Difference: -11.2%

Our most likely next first-time NBA title winner entering the season, the Wolves were supposed to build on last season’s ahead-of-schedule trip to the Western Conference finals. Instead, they’ve started with a record only slightly above .500 and are currently below 75% to make the first round of the playoffs proper. (The BPI thinks there’s a 50% chance they’ll have to go through the play-in tournament.) The big culprit for Minnesota’s slow start has been a defense that dropped from No. 1 to No. 10, dragging the Wolves’ net rating from plus-6.6 to plus-2.8, as Rudy Gobert has been less of a rim-protecting force — his block rate is down from 5.5% to 4.2% — and the integration of new power forward Julius Randle at that end has been rocky. (The Wolves’ defense has been a whopping 7.4 points per 100 worse with Randle on the court.)

What’s next? Even though they sit seventh in the West, the Wolves ought to turn things around soon enough.

(8-7)

Preseason playoff odds: 57.2%
Current playoff odds: 49.8%
Difference: -7.5%

The Kings are in a weird version of NBA purgatory, with a winning record but playoff odds that have now dropped below a coin flip. While newcomer DeMar DeRozan continues to age like a fine wine, continuing an impressive string of 10 consecutive seasons with an estimated RAPTOR of plus-2.5 or better, and most of the Kings’ other stars — including Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox (who scored 60 on Friday against Minnesota and 49 against Utah on Saturday) — are playing well, it might not be enough for them to escape the play-in. Nothing is all that wrong with coach Mike Brown’s team, but they might still be victims of a numbers game (again) in the West.

What’s next? The Kings will have to weather the next patch of games with Malik Monk, Sabonis and DeRozan all sidelined with injuries, which could take a toll on their playoff odds. But one reason for hope is this team’s all-around statistical résumé. Sacramento ranks among the top 10 in net rating, a group from which every single team last season at least made the first round of the playoffs.

Atlanta Hawks (7-8)

Preseason playoff odds: 36.1%
Current playoff odds: 30.1%
Difference: -5.9%

The Hawks just snuck in above our 35% preseason playoff-odds threshold, and they’ve lost fewer games since opening night than some other teams on this list. But for Atlanta, the panic might be more of the existential variety: In their second full season under coach Quin Snyder, nothing has really changed for this team. The Hawks ranked 12th on offense and 27th on defense last season with Trae Young being a major plus on offense — and a major minus on defense — when healthy. This season? They rank 17th on offense and 22nd on defense, with Young having exactly the same strengths and weaknesses. There’s little to suggest Atlanta has a higher ceiling than another play-in exit this time around.

What’s next? The Hawks do have one of the league’s youngest rosters (with an average age of 24.6), so there is potentially room to get better as the season goes on. Jalen Johnson, a 23-year-old who had an impressive plus-1.6 estimated RAPTOR a year ago, is plus-1.0 this season, but he has been better of late and could improve his season stats further. Likewise, 2024 No. 1 draft pick Zaccharie Risacher has, unsurprisingly, struggled to a horrid minus-4.3 RAPTOR rating but has shown some scoring aptitude despite a subpar 46.2 true shooting percentage.

LA Clippers (8-7)

Preseason playoff odds: 37.5%
Current playoff odds: 32.3%
Difference: -5.2%

If the Clippers had hopes of christening their new arena, the Intuit Dome, with a playoff appearance, those chances remain in the 30% range, slightly down from before the season. There are certainly interesting things happening with the Clippers, including Norman Powell’s impressive plus-2.6 estimated RAPTOR in the early going and James Harden returning to his high-usage rate roots. This team also ranks ninth in defensive rating after a couple of seasons outside of the top 15. The Clippers aren’t bad, but they are just sort of average. In the West, that still might land a team in the play-in (at best).

What’s next? Obviously, the Clippers’ long-term prospects rest on the health of Kawhi Leonard, who has yet to make his 2024-25 debut and remains out indefinitely with a knee injury.

(8-6)

Preseason playoff odds: 67.8%
Current playoff odds: 60.0%
Difference: -7.8%

Unlike Atlanta, Memphis remains more likely to make the playoffs than not, despite a similar loss in postseason probability since preseason. But for a Grizzlies team that had high expectations with Ja Morant returning from injury, an early record mildly above .500 isn’t going to gain Memphis much ground in a crowded West. Still, we’re listing the Grizzlies among the low-panic group because they are so much better than their record indicates. Memphis has the sixth-best net rating of any team so far this season — right in line with its No. 4 ranking in both 2021-22 and 2022-23 — including the No. 8 offense and No. 4 defense in the league.

What’s next? Despite their decent-but-far-from-certain playoff chances in the BPI and betting odds, it’s hard not to still be bullish on the Grizzlies. In addition to their elite underlying numbers, the team is 5-3 when Morant plays, and this is without Morant even performing at the level he did before suspension and injury cost him the better part of a season and a half.

Denver Nuggets (7-5)

Preseason playoff odds: 83.5%
Current playoff odds: 76.9%
Difference: -6.5%

Some things about Denver’s season are pretty standard, such as Nikola Jokic being one of the league’s top statistical performers. But in other ways, the Nuggets look a bit less sharp than usual — even if it’s not quite grounds for panic yet. Take, for instance, Denver’s defense, which rose to eighth in the league last season; now that ranking is down to 18th, which would be the Nuggets’ worst showing since Jokic’s third NBA season (2017-18). And their 13th-ranked net rating would also be the franchise’s lowest since 2017-18. After two straight seasons of qualifying comfortably with a top-2 seed, the Nuggets (at No. 6 in the West) would barely avoid the play-in tournament if the season ended today.

What’s next? Aaron Gordon’s calf injury is worth keeping an eye on, as he is perennially one of Jokic’s best supporting teammates. But a bigger factor in the trajectory of Denver’s playoff odds might be the team’s lack of depth. As has been the case with many of his teams since leaving Oklahoma City, the Nuggets are a lot worse (minus-26.4 points per 100) with Russell Westbrook on the court versus off, but that’s just part of the larger issue of Denver’s league-worst bench by net rating. The more the Nuggets have to rely on players aside from their core stars, and the worse those players perform, the more the panic level will rise.

Indiana Pacers (6-8)

Preseason playoff odds: 76.4%
Current playoff odds: 73.0%
Difference: -3.4%