Champions League midway point: Title odds, best XI, top games

Sporting CP, Monaco and Brest are all in the top four. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are 17th and 18th, respectively, behind Celtic and Dinamo Zagreb. PSG and RB Leipzig are on the outside looking in. This isn’t what we were expecting from the Champions League, but things are getting awfully fun and interesting.

It’s okay to admit it: It has been a little difficult following the stakes and consequences in the Champions League’s new league phase.

With more teams playing more games, no single result has been damning or definitive. Real Madrid have lost to Lille and AC Milan, Bayern lost to Aston Villa and got throttled by Barcelona, and PSG lost to Arsenal and drew at home with PSV Eindhoven, but none of these teams are actually in particular danger when it comes to advancing to the knockout rounds — they’re just less likely to earn a top-eight seed and a bye to the round of 16.

We have officially reached the midway point of the group phase, however, and at this point we largely understand who’s in trouble — RB Leipzig, primarily — and what’s at stake moving forward. We’ve got some delightful underdog stories to follow, and we’ve seen some star turns as well.

With matchday four in the books, let’s step back and take a big-picture look at where things stand in this competition as we head down the stretch.

WHAT EVERYONE IS PLAYING FOR

A 36-team league is terribly unwieldy, so creating a simple 1-to-36 power ranking isn’t going to accomplish much. So let’s lay out where everyone stands by looking at teams from country to country.

First things first: Which country is most likely to produce the Champions League winner? (You already know the answer.)

Title odds (per ESPN BET’s implied odds) by country:

‐ England: 40.3%
‐ Spain: 27.9%
‐ Germany: 13.7%
‐ Italy: 9.7%
‐ France: 3.9%
‐ Portugal: 2.6%
‐ Netherlands: 0.8%
‐ Other: 1.1%

As you would probably expect, the country that has three of the world’s four to six best teams (England) has the best chance of taking home the prize. Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are among the six title favorites right now, and despite some slip-ups here and there, they’re joined by a faltering Real Madrid, a surging Barcelona and a somewhere-in-between Bayern Munich at the top of a favorites list that hasn’t really changed, even as the occasional surprising result has rolled in.

Still, while the new Champions League format doesn’t give us many changes in terms of title odds, a given team’s odds of advancing or finishing in the top eight can still rise or fall significantly from matchday to matchday — and in this regard, the stakes are rising quickly. For each major European country, let’s look at who is harboring genuine title hopes, who is likely to finish in the top eight — and therefore earn a key bye into the round of 16 — and who is just looking to finish in the top 24 and advance to the knockout rounds by any means necessary.

The categories below:

‐ Title hopefuls: teams with at least a 3% chance of winning the whole thing, per ESPN BET
‐ Fighting for the top eight: teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top eight, per Opta
‐ Just hoping to advance: teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top 24 but a less than 20% chance of finishing in the top eight, per Opta
‐ Playing out the string: teams with an under 20% chance of finishing in the top 24

ENGLAND

‐ Title hopefuls: Manchester City (18.1% title chance, down 5.4% since September), Liverpool (11.6%, up 5.7%), Arsenal (8.1%, up 0.5%)

For the first time, City’s title odds have actually taken a hit. They remain the overall favorites, but Tuesday’s shocking 4-1 loss to Sporting CP hurt quite a bit, both because it made them less likely to finish in the top eight — it could be a pretty big deal having to play an extra tie — and because it was a further sign that injuries have made them an actually worse team. They’ve now lost three matches in a row for the first time since 2018 and if both City and Real Madrid are struggling, this competition is incredibly wide open.

‐ Fighting for the top eight: Liverpool (95.2% chance of a top-eight finish), Manchester City (52.5%), Arsenal (37.4%), Aston Villa (32.9%)

Well, it could be the competition, and it could just be that Liverpool and City have traded places. Liverpool have a perfect 12 points from four matches, and it might take only one more win for them to lock down a top-eight finish. Their top-eight odds increased by 16.7%, while all other English teams fell by at least 18% after losses. It’s looking more and more like we might have some fun upstarts in the top eight and some serious heavyweights looming in the round of 24.

‐ Just hoping to advance: none

‐ Playing out the string: none

Despite this week’s losses, all four English teams have at least a 96% chance of advancing, per Opta. So despite the recent iffy form, they’ve at least got that going for them.

SPAIN

‐ Title hopefuls: Real Madrid (13.6% title chance, down 5.6% since September), Barcelona (12.5%, up 6.6%)

In LaLiga, Real Madrid are playing the City-esque role of faltering preseason favorite, while Barca — like Liverpool — are in brilliant form with rising odds.

‐ Fighting for the top eight: Barcelona (69.8% chance of a top-eight finish)

Barca lost to Monaco in matchday one but have since won three matches by a combined 14-3, including Wednesday’s 5-2 thumping of Crvena Zvezda in Serbia. They’re sixth in the Champions League table, and they have the fourth-best odds of finishing top-eight. What’s interesting, however, is that they’re the only Spanish team with particularly good odds of pulling that bye.

‐ Just hoping to advance: Real Madrid (94.8% chance of advancing), Atletico Madrid (91.5%)

In their past two matches, Real Madrid have lost at home by scores of 4-0 to Barcelona and 3-1 to AC Milan. And in the match before that, they fell behind Borussia Dortmund 2-0 before charging back to win. They’re making their lives awfully difficult at the moment; not only do they trail Barca by nine points in league play, but their losses to both Milan and Lille have now done serious damage in the Champions League table. They’re currently 18th, and their next two matches are away against first-place Liverpool and ninth-place Atalanta.

Per Opta, Real’s most likely range of finish is somewhere between 14th and 20th right now. They’ll advance, but they could be stuck with an awfully tough round-of-24 draw.

Meanwhile, Atletico did itself serious favors with Wednesday’s dramatic last-kick-of-the-match win at PSG.

ATLÉTICO GRAB ALL THREE POINTS AT THE DEATH ⚡ pic.twitter.com/4vMJSppkbp

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 6, 2024

Noted basketball fan Antoine Griezmann came up with one of the best fast-break passes you’ll ever see.

While back-to-back losses to Benfica and Lille all but ended Atletico’s chances of a top-eight finish, stealing three points back in Paris shored up their odds of advancing, at least.

‐ Playing out the string: Girona (14.6% chance of advancing)

With a 2-0 win over Slovan Bratislava in matchday three, Girona kept themselves alive in the competition, but Tuesday’s thumping 4-0 loss at PSV Eindhoven cut their odds of advancing by more than half.

GERMANY

‐ Title hopefuls: Bayern Munich (8.1% title chance, up 1.2% since September)

Bayern’s 1-0 win over Benfica on Wednesday was frustrating: the German giants attempted 24 shots to Benfica’s one, but didn’t manage many shots of actual quality and couldn’t break through until Jamal Musiala’s header in the 67th minute. Still, it got them back on track after losses to Aston Villa and Barcelona.

As you’ll see, Bayern have still only got about a one-in-three chance of finishing in the top eight after the setbacks, but if they can beat PSG at home in a few weeks, their stretch run is awfully easy, and they could rack up quite a few points.

‐ Fighting for the top eight: Borussia Dortmund (59.9% chance of a top-eight finish), Bayer Leverkusen (34.4%), Bayern Munich (31.9%)

Despite iffy Bundesliga form, Borussia Dortmund remain in strong Champions League form; like Bayern, they manhandled their matchday four opponent (Sturm Graz) and were eventually rewarded with a Donyell Malen goal in the 85th minute and a 1-0 win. They’re seventh in the Champions League table, and their top-eight odds remain good.

The same can’t be said for Bayer Leverkusen. It wasn’t that they lost at Liverpool, it’s that they lost badly, 4-0, and fell to 10th in Opta’s power rankings. The road looks trickier now, with their odds of a top-eight finish falling by 24.4 percentage points.

‐ Just hoping to advance: Stuttgart (83.3% chance of advancing)

Stuttgart remain fine in this competition: their matchday three win over Juventus was huge in that regard, and they should still advance. But any hopes of a top-eight finish likely went out the door with their stolid 2-0 home loss to Atalanta on Wednesday. Atalanta is awesome, up to ninth in Opta’s power ratings, but it’s hard to drop three points at home and remain in good shape for a bye.

But hey, at least Stuttgart isn’t RB Leipzig.

‐ Playing out the string: RB Leipzig (8.4% chance of advancing)

RB Leipzig are second in the Bundesliga, behind only Bayern and ahead of both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund at the moment. But they’ve deployed all of their good performances in league play and have laid an absolute egg in the Champions League. Suffering competitive, one-goal losses to Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Liverpool is one thing; losing 3-1 at Celtic is another. They’re just about toast in this competition.

ITALY

‐ Title hopefuls: Inter Milan (4.3% title chance, up 1.3% since September)

Inter Milan made the Champions League final in 2022-23, rolled to the Serie A title in 2023-24, tied Manchester City away, beat Arsenal at home and currently rank third in the world in Opta’s ratings. They’ve lost once in 15 matches in all competitions this season. It feels like we should be talking more about them as legitimate Champions League contenders.

Wednesday’s win over Arsenal was an old-school, “take the lead, then bunker in” affair. Arsenal ended up attempting more shots (20-7) worth more xG (1.8-1.2), but at the time of Hakan Çalhanoglu’s penalty goal in first-half stoppage time, shot totals were even, and Inter had generated most of their xG (1.1-0.6). They ended up getting a body in front of half of Arsenal’s shots and didn’t leave them many genuinely strong chances to score. It was a good performance. Most Inter performances are.

‐ Fighting for the top eight: Inter Milan (78.9% chance of a top-eight finish), Atalanta (41.3%), AC Milan (29.5%)

It was a good week for potential Italian contenders. Both Milan teams beat Champions League favorites (Inter over Arsenal, Milan over Real Madrid), and Atalanta dominated Stuttgart away from home. Only a surprising 0-0 draw with Celtic is holding Atalanta back at the moment (they’re ninth in the table, having also drawn with Arsenal), while Milan has recovered from losses to Bayer Leverkusen and Liverpool with strong performances against Club Brugge and Real Madrid.

After a rigorous schedule to date, Milan have one of the easiest from here: Their last four matches are against Slovan Bratislava, Crvena Zvezda, Girona and Dinamo Zagreb. If Christian Pulisic and Co. handle their business and don’t drop unnecessary points, they could end up with a top-eight point total.

‐ Just hoping to advance: Juventus (91.2% chance of advancing)

A great start (wins over PSV and RB Leipzig) has turned into a slog (one combined point against Stuttgart and Lille) for Juve. They seem destined for the round of 24.

‐ Playing out the string: Bologna (5.3% chance of advancing)

After a slow start in Serie A play, Bologna have rebounded to ninth place at the moment. They’re still waiting for their first Champions League victory, however. They weren’t bad against Monaco, but they fell 1-0 at home, all but ending any hopes of earning the nine points or so it will take to advance.

FRANCE

‐ Title hopefuls: none

This was supposed to be the category where PSG’s name appeared, but Luis Enrique’s squad is leading the league in Poor Fortune at the moment.

On Wednesday, they attempted 22 shots to Atletico’s four, generated 2.1 to Atleti’s 0.7, and lost 2-1. For the competition as a whole, they’ve attempted shots worth 7.2 xG and allowed shots worth 1.9, but have been outscored 5-3. The absolutely cursed finishing form that got them eliminated from the Champions League against Borussia Dortmund last season has continued, and they have only four points from four matches. And in their last four matches they still have to play Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

PSG will probably still advance, but it’s not a guarantee.

‐ Fighting for the top eight: Monaco (37.1% chance of a top-eight finish), Brest (26.9%)

PSG aside, the rest of France is enjoying this competition immensely! Monaco (third place) and Brest (fourth) remain in excellent shape after away wins over Bologna and Sparta Prague, respectively. Since they rank 19th and 47th in Opta’s ratings — Brest have pulled a reverse RB Leipzig, ranking 11th in Ligue 1 but saving all their good performances for the Champions League — it’s easy to assume that maybe both their form and spots in the table falter, but they haven’t yet. What a story.

‐ Just hoping to advance: Lille (93.9% chance of advancing), PSG (68.1%)

Lille have been overshadowed by other successful Ligue 1 mates, but since losing to second-place Sporting in matchday one, they’ve beaten Real Madrid and drawn with Atletico Madrid and Juventus. That’s solid work. They couldn’t hold onto a 1-0 lead against Juve and dropped a couple of points because of it, but they’re still a solid 14th overall.

‐ Playing out the string: none

EVERYONE ELSE

‐ Title hopefuls: none

‐ Fighting for the top eight: Sporting CP (74.9% chance of a top-eight finish)

This has been a fun tournament for underdogs thus far. While the title favorites remain predictable, Sporting CP and two non-PSG French clubs have better odds of a top-eight finish than Bayern, Real Madrid or PSG, and based on Opta odds, clubs from outside of Europe’s Big Five leagues should grab an average of about 5.6 spots in the round of 24. Considering there are 14 such teams in the field, maybe that doesn’t seem incredibly impressive. But it’s better than one might have expected at the start of the competition. And Sporting’s 4-1 romp over City on Tuesday was both fun and potentially consequential.

‐ Just hoping to advance: Celtic (93.0% chance of advancing), PSV Eindhoven (87.2%), Benfica (76.3%), Dinamo Zagreb (68.%), Feyenoord (61.1%), Club Brugge (38.7%), Sparta Prague (21.8%)

It was a bad week for Sparta (home loss to Brest), and Feyenoord (home loss to Salzburg), and Benfica sure didn’t put up much of a fight against Bayern. But a lot of teams in this group burnished their advancement hopes: Celtic continued their awesome run with an easy win over RB Leipzig; not only are they nearly guaranteed to advance, but they’ve still got a 16% chance of a top-eight finish.

Meanwhile, Dinamo Zagreb’s incredible run continued with an easy win at Slovan Bratislava, PSV romped 4-0 over Girona — American Malik Tillman got in on the scoring — and Club Brugge scored its first win over an English team since 1995, taking down Aston Villa 1-0 at home. A competition is always more fun with spicy underdogs, and the Champions League has a lot of them at the moment.

‐ Playing out the string: Shakhtar Donetsk (10.8% chance of advancing), RB Salzburg (2.6%), Crvena Zvezda (1.2%), Sturm Graz (0.7%), Young Boys (0.4%), Slovan Bratislava (0.1%)

Shakhtar kept hopes alive by handling their business at “home” (in Germany) in a win over Young Boys, but for the most part, it seems this competition is about over for the other five teams.

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BEST XI AT THE MIDWAY POINT

Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan, AC Milan

There’s admittedly some recency bias to this pick. We’ve seen some incredible goalkeeping in this competition, and anyone from Shakhtar Donetsk’s Dmytro Riznyk to Aston Villa’s Emi Martinez, Girona’s Paulo Gazzaniga, Lille’s Lucas Chevalier, Juventus’ Mattia Perin or even Liverpool’s Caoimhín Kelleher could have earned this spot. But only one of them made nine saves in a win in the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu.

Trailing in the second half against AC Milan, Real Madrid made their typical Real Madrid charge, the same one that turned a 2-0 deficit to Borussia Dortmund into a 5-2 win just weeks earlier in this competition. Kylian Mbappé attempted eight shots, Vinicius Jr. attempted four and Brahim Díaz attempted three in 45 minutes — including a strike from just 7 meters in the 91st minute — off the bench. But only a 23rd-minute penalty from Vini actually found the net. AC Milan took the lead late in the first half, expanded it to 3-1 in the 73rd minute and actually saw out the win because Maignan was standing on his damn head.

The France international has now saved 84% of shots on goal in this competition and despite starting the competition with a pair of losses, AC Milan is now safely midtable, still harboring dreams of a top-eight finish.

Backup: Dmytro Riznyk, Shakhtar Donetsk

Right-back: Achraf Hakimi, PSG

Basically an Alphonso Davies for the right side. Hakimi leads right-backs in ball recoveries (28), progressive carries (61), pass completions (255) and shot attempts (17), and he’s second in chances created (10) and fouls suffered (eight). Hakimi was the best young right-back in the world for years, and this competition suggests he’s now just the best right-back, period.

Backup: Vanderson, Monaco

Center backs: Nico Schlotterbeck, Borussia Dortmund; Raúl Torrente, Dinamo Zagreb

Borussia Dortmund are currently averaging 2.3 points per game in the Champions League and 1.8 in the Bundesliga; they’re seventh out of 36 in the former competition and fifth out of 18 in the latter. Does this make sense? Absolutely not. But while they imploded and gave up five goals to Real Madrid in matchday three, they’ve allowed just one goal in their other three Champions League matches.

It’s sometimes difficult to use stats to properly measure how a center-back is performing since his No. 1 job is to create the absence of something (goals, in this case). But it’s safe to say that if you’re winning duels at a high rate and triggering attacks with strong ball progression, you’re probably doing a good job. Among Champions League central defenders, Nico Schlotterbeck is currently eighth in duel win rate (83.3%) and first in combined progressive carries and passes (125). He’s in the top 20 in ball recoveries and shots, too.

He’s playing his best ball in the competition in which BVB seem to play their best ball.

Meanwhile, I realize plus-minus isn’t much of an accepted soccer stat, but let’s just note that when Torrente doesn’t play, Dinamo Zagreb allows 9.0 goals per game in the Champions League. When he does, they allow 1.0. That’s like an 800% improvement! Analytics!

Seriously though, Torrente has been dynamite for a team that started the competition as poorly as possible (with a 9-2 loss at Bayern) and has since pulled seven points from three matches. He ranks fifth in total defensive interventions (58) despite having played in only three matches. Dinamo needs pure fire-fighters, ball progression be damned, and Torrente has probably been the best one in the competition.

Backups: Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool; Sead Kolasinac, Atalanta

Left back: Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich

Among Champions League left-backs, the 24-year-old is first in ball recoveries (24), first in progressive carries (57), first in chances created (eight), first in fouls won (eight) and second in pass completions (251). He hasn’t really left any stats for anyone else. Excellent stuff.

Backup: Alvaro Carreras, Benfica

Midfielders: Phil Foden, Manchester City; Ryan Gravenberch, Liverpool; Youri Tielemans, Aston Villa

This is evidently the Premier League’s purview at the moment. Among Champions League midfielders, Foden, one of the attackingest midfielders in the game, is first in goals (three), shot attempts (17) and shots on goal (seven); he’s also first in chances created (11) and seventh in progressive passes (32). The 24-year-old hasn’t really gotten going in Premier League play, but he has scored in three of four matches, and he provided nearly the only positive moment for Manchester City in Tuesday’s otherwise demoralizing loss to Sporting CP.

Phil Foden gets Man City off to the perfect start! 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/UmzwVNh6Kq

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 5, 2024

Tielemans has thrived closer to his defense than his goal; the 27-year-old had to wait six years between Champions League appearances, but he has made the most of it. He had a goal and an assist against Young Boys back in September, and among midfielders he’s 13th in both defensive interventions (40) and combined progressive carries and passes (54). Villa began the competition with their first three Champions League/European Cup wins since November 1982 and hold a top-eight ranking at the midway point of the league phase. Tielemans has been responsible for a solid chunk of that success.

I guess with this midfield we’ve got Foden playing an attacking midfielder role, Tielemans in the pivot and Gravenberch doing a little bit of everything. Liverpool are the only perfect team left in the competition, and while the team’s primary stars have been awesome — Mohamed Salah has four assists, Luis Díaz had a hat trick against Bayer Leverkusen, Virgil van Dijk has been impregnable and nearly made this list (as did Alexis Mac Allister) — two unsung players, Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo, have been utterly brilliant.

Gravenberch is first among Champions League midfielders in defensive interventions (57), but he’s also eighth in combined progressive carries and passes (62), and he has created five chances as well, third on the team. This was the vision when the Reds acquired the 22-year-old last season, and he’s fulfilling it under Arne Slot.

Backup: Matheus Nunes, Manchester City; Pedri, Barcelona; Antoni Milambo, Feyenoord

Left winger: Raphinha, Barcelona

The player of the tournament thus far. (I’m sure that’s what we were all thinking as Barcelona was shopping him over the summer.) He torched Bayern in one of the tournament’s most memorable results, and he leads the competition with seven combined goals (five) and assists (two).

Raphinha would make this list as the most prolific attacker in the league, but he has made an impact almost literally everywhere in the attacking half.

Since their opening loss to Monaco, Barca have been the best team in the Champions League, and the 27-year-old from Brazil is the single biggest reason why.

Backup: Malik Tillman, PSV Eindhoven

Right winger: Maghnes Akliouche, Monaco

Monaco is one of the most reliable producers of exciting, young talent in Europe and while Akliouche isn’t the youngest prospect ever — he’s, gasp, already 22! — he scored eight goals in 31 matches in all competitions last season, and in the Champions League he has been utterly brilliant for a Monaco team that is in spectacular shape after four matches.

I just assumed I would be putting Mohamed Salah in this spot, but while Salah does have four assists to Akliouche’s one, Akliouche has more goals (two to one), and among all right wingers in the competition, he’s first in pass completions (139), second in progressive passes (24), second in fouls drawn (eight) and third in progressive carries (40). Oh yeah, and he’s a pressing machine: He’s first among RWs in ball recoveries (20) and second in total defensive interventions (30).

Backup: Mohamed Salah, Liverpool

Viktor Gyökeres, Sporting CP

He was linked to basically every major English club over the summer, and if you search “viktor gyokeres transfer rumors” now, you basically find assurances that he’s absolutely landing at Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal soon. That commute sounds horrendous, to be honest. Regardless, the late-blooming Swede had a slow start to the competition, scoring in Sporting’s opening win over Lille but managing just four total shots in his first 180 minutes in the competition and getting completely limited in a 1-1 draw with PSV.

In the past two matches, however, he has been sensational. He has scored four goals — one against Sturm Graz (with an assist) and three against Manchester City — and while two of those were penalties, he has been a shot-volume sensation: 11 shots worth 3.5 xG, seven shots on goal. He’s part of a four-way tie atop the Champions League with five goals, and he’s top-25 with eight chances created and seven fouls drawn, too. He’s living up to the hype, and Sporting have been brilliant in the competition, pulling 10 points from four matches and currently holding down second place. (We’re accentuating the positive here, so we’ll ignore the part where manager Ruben Amorim is leaving for Manchester United next week.)

Backup: Robert Lewandowski, Barcelona

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THE MOST INTERESTING GAMES REMAINING IN THE LEAGUE PHASE

Now that we’ve got the rhythm down and the stakes are beginning to increase, let’s look at what could be the most interesting and meaningful matches from each remaining matchday.

Matchday 5: Nov. 26-27

‐ Real Madrid at Liverpool
‐ PSG at Bayern Munich
‐ Arsenal at Sporting CP
‐ Brest at Barcelona
‐ Juventus at Aston Villa

This one might be the most interesting so far. We get two heavyweight matchups — Real Madrid visiting Anfield (and needing points), plus PSG visiting Allianz Arena — but we also get second-place Sporting hosting an Arsenal team struggling away from home and fourth-place Brest visiting sixth-place Barcelona. And because history is delightful, Aston Villa, having already beaten the team they took down for the European Cup crown in 1982, now host the team that defeated them in the 1983 quarterfinals.

Matchday 6: Dec. 10-11

‐ Real Madrid at Atalanta
‐ Monaco at Arsenal
‐ Barcelona at Borussia Dortmund
‐ Celtic at Dinamo Zagreb
‐ Aston Villa at RB Leipzig

If Real Madrid don’t win at Anfield, then they’ll have possibly fallen into the 20s when they visit Bergamo to face an always-confident Atalanta. Meanwhile, you’ve got Arsenal facing another current top-five team, Barca visiting Signal Iduna Park for just the second time ever, RB Leipzig hunting desperately for points and another matchup of delightful surprises (Celtic and Dinamo) in Zagreb.

Matchday 7: Jan. 21-22