The NBA is not traditionally kind to franchises trying to break into its championship club for the very first time. Before the Toronto Raptors won their first NBA title in 2019, a group of just 11 teams had monopolized all of the previous 39 championships dating back to 1980 — of which only six (or 15%) represented a franchise winning its first ring.
But little did we know at the time that those 2019 Raptors would signal a big shift in the NBA’s competitive environment going forward. In the six seasons from 2019 through 2024, six different teams won the Larry O’Brien Trophy — joining 1975 to 1980 as the only six-year stretches in NBA history featuring six different champions. The recent crop wasn’t all first-time winners — only Toronto in 2019 and the 2023 Denver Nuggets fit that qualification — but it was indicative of just how much had changed compared with the league’s usual dynastic history.
That, in turn, gives unprecedented hope to the Phoenix Suns and Brooklyn Nets
Odds to be next: 2.1% (if there’s a first-time winner in next 6 years)
Average roster age for 2024-25: 27.3 (13th-youngest)
: +100000
The closest they’ve come before: Lost NBA Finals (2003, 2002)
Like the Pacers, the Nets are another former ABA champ whose pre-merger success doesn’t count for our purposes. And if you’d asked us just a few years ago, Brooklyn might have been an easy pick as the most likely team to end its drought — like when the Kevin Durant– team held over the eventual champion in the 2021 East semifinals.
Alas, KD’s size-18 sneaker was on the line for what would have been a series-winning shot in Game 7, the Nets lost, their superteam was broken up, and now Brooklyn fans have little in the way of hope. Unless can recapture his previous potential (Hey! Stop laughing!), the odds of the Nets being the NBA’s next new champion are about as likely as Simmons becoming a 3-point specialist.
