Real Madrid-Barcelona Clásico: Preview, teams, predictions, odds

The stage is perfectly set for the first Clásico of the season at the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday (stream LIVE at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+). LaLiga leaders Barcelona head to the Spanish capital with a three-point advantage over second-placed Real Madrid.

This was not scenario that was expected after 10 games. Madrid beat Barça twice on their way to the league title last season and then added one of the world’s best players, Kylian Mbappé, to a front line already starring Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo Goes and Jude Bellingham.

Barça, meanwhile, started the season shrouded in uncertainty and continuing financial issues. Hansi Flick arrived to replace Xavi Hernández as coach, and while Dani Olmo was signed from RB Leipzig, they began the season with a squad that looked short on numbers and experience.

However, they have started the campaign in fine form — as shown on Wednesday when Raphinha scored three goals as his side beat Bayern Munich 4-1 in the Champions League — and Flick could move Barça six points clear of Madrid with a win in his first Clásico.

Mbappé, though, will want to have his say in his debut in the fixture, too, while Vinícius comes into the game on the back of a hat trick in Madrid’s 5-2 comeback win over Borussia Dortmund. — Sam Marsden

Clásico all-time head-to-head

All competitions
Madrid 105, Barcelona 100, Draws 52

LaLiga
Madrid 79, Barcelona 74, Drawn 35

LaLiga games at Bernabéu
Madrid 37, Barcelona 19, Drawn 13

— ESPN Stats & Information

What happened last season?

Barcelona were the better team in both of last season’s league Clásicos, but that wasn’t enough. Both games were vintage Madrid smash-and-grabs. In the first Clásico of the season at Montjuïc, on Oct. 28, Barça dominated for an hour. Ilkay Gündogan’s goal put them ahead early on. Luka Modrić and Eduardo Camavinga came on and changed the game, but Bellingham won it, scoring a long-range equaliser on 68 minutes before a second goal deep in added time made it 2-1.

The Supercopa meeting in January felt like an outlier as Madrid ran out comfortable 4-1 winners. In April’s return league fixture, Barça were on top for long spells, leading 1-0 and then 2-1, but Madrid raised their game and Bellingham inevitably scored a 91st-minute winner, making it 3-2 as the Bernabéu erupted. Had Barcelona won those two Clásicos, they’d have been champions. But they lost both. Talk about fine margins.— Alex Kirkland

How Real Madrid’s and Barcelona’s seasons have gone so far

Real Madrid: Madrid are unbeaten in LaLiga, with seven wins and three draws, but their style of play has failed to impress. They’ve dropped points at Real Mallorca and Las Palmas — games they should win comfortably — and even in victory they were made to sweat by opponents like Villarreal and Celta Vigo. Highlights have been moments of individual quality — in particular, the goals of Mbappé and Vinícius — rather than as a collective. They miss the retired Toni Kroos in midfield, and Mbappé’s arrival up front has unbalanced a solid defensive unit. Despite all that, they’re only three points behind Barcelona. — Alex Kirkland

Barcelona: Flick’s first 10 league games in charge of Barcelona have exceeded all expectations. They have won nine of them, only losing away at Osasuna when the German coach opted to rotate his squad ahead of a Champions League game. They look fitter and hungrier than last season and are much more effective in the final third. They have already netted 33 league goals, 12 more than Madrid, who rank second with 21. Considering the injuries they have had to deal with, including to summer signing Olmo, and the youngsters they have had to use, results could hardly have been better at this stage. But a trip to the Bernabéu poses their biggest test yet. — Marsden

Tale of the tape

Goalkeeper

Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, the world’s best goalkeeper, is expected to miss the game after a recurrence of the adductor injury that kept him out earlier in the season. For most teams, that would be a devastating blow, but at least Madrid have last season’s hero Andriy Lunin — who covered for Courtois for almost all of 2023-24 — ready to step in. Lunin surprised everybody with the level of his displays last year. But still, he’s no Courtois. — Kirkland

Barcelona: Iñaki Peña has filled in since a knee injury ruled Marc-André ter Stegen out for the season. The 25-year-old goalkeeper has kept three clean sheets in his six starts but also conceded four at Osasuna and there is not the same feeling of security with him in goal as there was with Ter Stegen. Former Arsenal and Juventus No. 1 Wojciech Szczęsny came out of retirement to sign for Barça until the end of the season and provide competition for Peña. Szczęsny is expected to eventually take the gloves from Peña, but the Clásico may be deemed too soon for him. — Marsden

Who has the edge?: Madrid

Defence

Real Madrid: Dani Carvajal’s absence means Lucas Vázquez is the only available right-back (sources have told ESPN that Madrid are looking to sign another, but finding the right candidate in January will be difficult). A reliable backup, Vázquez is sometimes prone to switch off when defending the far post. Éder Militão and Antonio Rüdiger pick themselves at centre-back, where David Alaba still isn’t fit, and Jesús Vallejo isn’t good enough. On the left, Ferland Mendy — named the “best defensive left-back in the world” by coach Carlo Ancelotti — should get the nod over Fran García, and he’ll be tasked with stopping teenage superstar Lamine Yamal. — Kirkland

Barcelona: With Ronald Araújo and Andreas Christensen injured long term, Barça have a settled back four of Jules Koundé, Pau Cubarsí, Iñigo Martínez and Alejandro Balde. Individually they are all playing relatively well, but Flick wants them to play a high line, and that does give opponents a chance to get in behind if Barça’s pressing from the front is not perfect. They miss Araújo’s recovery pace in that sense. — Marsden

Edge: Madrid

Midfield

Real Madrid: Ancelotti has recently opted to strengthen his midfield, going for a quartet in the middle of the park rather than a more lightweight trio. Two of Aurélien Tchouaméni, Camavinga and Modrić will accompany Federico Valverde and Bellingham. Valverde is arguably Madrid’s player of the season so far, doing his best to fill the retired Kroos’ boots, while Bellingham hasn’t scored for his club since May… Could that change on Saturday? The weak link is Tchouaméni, who often looks uncomfortable in possession. — Kirkland

Barcelona: Injuries have disrupted Barça’s midfield this season. Gavi, Frenkie de Jong, Olmo, Fermín López and Marc Bernal have all missed large parts of the campaign. Gavi, De Jong, Olmo and López are all available again, but the Blaugrana are likely to stick with Marc Casadó, who has done brilliantly since being promoted from the B team, and Pedri. The question is which of those returning players, if any, are fit enough to accompany them from the start. If the answer is none, the other options are Raphinha in the No. 10 role, or the inexperienced Pablo Torre. — Marsden

Edge: Barça

Attack

Real Madrid: Vinícius and Mbappé need no introduction. The pair are lethal in front of goal — both scoring at Celta on Saturday, with a total of 11 league goals between them — even if they aren’t the most obvious duo, sharing many characteristics. Their weakness is a shared reluctance to track back, more pronounced in Mbappé’s case, and the knock-on effect of that on the team’s overall solidity. But their quality on the ball is undeniable and, with Rodrygo ruled out, they will need to step up. — Kirkland

Barcelona: Flick has the Barça front line purring. Lewandowski, whom he previously worked with at Bayern, has been the big benefactor of the team’s improvement in the final third. The veteran striker is getting the ball in more central areas in the final third and has netted 12 times in 10 league games. Yamal from the right and Raphinha, either from the left or centrally, have also been brilliant. No-one has more goal contributions in LaLiga than the trio: Lewandowski leads the way with 14, followed by Raphinha and Yamal, who have 10 each. The case could be made that they have been the best front three in Europe so far this season. — Marsden

Edge: Barça

Coaches

Real Madrid: Ancelotti has struggled to find exactly the right formula so far this season to get Madrid firing on all cylinders, but you wouldn’t bet against him getting there eventually. The Italian has vast experience, has won it all, and knows all about this fixture, having coached Madrid in 11 Clásicos over two spells. He’s prone to the occasional high-profile Clásico gamble — think Sergio Ramos playing in midfield in 2013, or Modrić as a false No. 9 in 2022 — but they’re rare. — Kirkland

Barcelona: Flick has quickly made his mark on this Barça side. They press well, create chances quickly when they win the ball back and defend with a really high line. He has improved the output of players who struggled at times last season, including Lewandowski and Raphinha, and has trusted in youth when faced with a lengthy injury list. He can almost do no wrong at the moment, but that can quickly change if he doesn’t get things right in the Clásico.– Marsden

Edge: Madrid

Key clashes

Kylian Mbappé vs. Pau Cubarsí: Cubarsí, 17, is a precociously talented defender, but Mbappé is getting better game by game — Ancelotti says he’s looked “a different player” after resting over the international break — and will relish the space he should find in behind Barcelona’s defence. Madrid tend to struggle when faced with a deep block, but such an approach would represent a radical shift for Flick’s Barça, who favour a high line. If they stick to that philosophy, Mbappé will enjoy himself. — Kirkland

Lamine Yamal vs. Ferland Mendy: It will be interesting to see how Barça attack Vázquez at right-back, either through Raphinha staying wide or Balde pushing up, but the most fascinating battle comes on the other side. He may only be 17, but so many Barça games are being determined by Yamal already. Either teams overcommit men to mark him, leaving space for the other attackers, or he produces a moment of magic. Mendy, on his day, is a fine defender, so it promises to be an absorbing contest. — Marsden

Clásico predictions