Editor’s note: This article, originally published on Sept. 25, has been updated to reflect Friday’s reported trade between the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
NBA training camp starts on Tuesday, and as teams prepare for preseason, it’s time to make projections for how all 30 will perform this upcoming season.
My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.
After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.
One key change is the wins projections are no longer so compressed toward .500. As we are looking at mean wins, they still tend toward average because of the possibility that teams could dramatically under or over perform based on injuries and breakout seasons, but four teams are projected to win at least 50 games on average after only the eventual champion Boston Celtics were last season.
Let’s take a look at who joins the Celtics at the top, which Western Conference finalist might fall down the standings and the rest of the projections.
| BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Eastern Conference
1. Boston Celtics
Average wins: 52.4
After winning 64 games en route to the franchise’s first title since 2008, the Celtics might not be as motivated in the 2024-25 regular season. Just four of the 12 teams that have won at a 60-game pace in the past decade repeated the feat the following season. The only team in that span to repeat coming off a championship was the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors.
Jayson Tatum has no regrets about his experience at the Summer Olympics.
Add in the ankle surgery expected to sideline starting center Kristaps Porzingis until December and it’s reasonable to expect fewer wins from Boston despite bringing back last season’s entire rotation.
Average wins: 50.6
The Cavaliers’ decision to prioritize continuity is rewarded in the projections, which have them near their 2022-23 total of 51 wins on average. One key caveat: Roster fit is among the most important factors not captured in these projections, and how well Cleveland’s stars complement one another is a major storyline that will carry into this season.
Average wins: 46.7
As I noted in my piece on the most likely teams to improve and decline, age is naturally a key predictor. Milwaukee had the league’s second-oldest roster last season when weighted by minutes played, younger than only the LA Clippers. Based on that factor, it’s no surprise Milwaukee comes in slightly below last year’s total of 49 wins.
Average wins: 46.7
Coming off a run to the Eastern Conference finals and with Pascal Siakam for a full season, the Pacers are hoping to improve on last season’s 47 wins. Health is a reason to temper expectations. Star guard Tyrese Haliburton was limited by a hamstring injury last season, but Indiana lost the second-fewest games (111) to injury or non-COVID illness, according to my database.
up to fifth with Friday’s reported trade for Philadelphia 76ers
Average wins: 45.2
After adding in free agency, the Sixers’ projection feels low (and further slipped a spot after New York’s reported trade for Towns). It’s worth remembering that for as well as Philadelphia did filling out its roster in free agency, having six players on minimum contracts is not typically a recipe for depth. The 76ers also have the chance to upgrade on this roster midseason using Kenyon Martin Jr. as a matching salary along with several tradable first-round picks.
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Average wins: 44.9
This projection comes in right between the 44 and 46 games the Heat have won the past two seasons. Those campaigns were followed by very different playoff runs: a trip to the NBA Finals in 2023 followed by last year’s five-game loss to Boston in the first round. For Miami, getting to the postseason healthy has been more important than accumulating regular-season wins.
Average wins: 43.5
The Magic won 47 games a year ago with one of the NBA’s youngest rosters and then added veteran Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency, giving them an over/under win total of 48.5 according to ESPN BET. My projections have them instead slipping toward .500 in large part because of the multiyear sample for player stats. Orlando has improved so much so quickly — from 22 wins in 2021-22 with a relatively similar roster to 34 in 2022-23 before last season’s jump — that past performance is still holding the Magic’s projection back. We’ll see if the Magic can beat the plexiglass principle two years in a row.
Average wins: 36.9
When the Nets traded Mikal Bridges to the crosstown rival Knicks, it felt like the first in a series of moves to tear down the roster in pursuit of lottery picks. Brooklyn instead stood pat the rest of the summer, meaning there’s still plenty of NBA talent on the roster — for now. The Nets could look very different by the trade deadline, explaining why they’ve got the lowest wins total at ESPN BET (19.5 games). Until then, Brooklyn might be a bit more competitive than expected — along the lines of the 2022-23 Jazz.
Average wins: 33.9
In a bottom-heavy conference, the Raptors have a chance to reach the play-in with a below-.500 record. This projection is slightly better than Toronto’s 8-14 record in games Scottie Barnes started alongside RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley after the Raptors acquired them in the OG Anunoby trade, which was a 30-win pace over a full season.
Average wins: 31.9
No East team outside of the top eight will have more motivation to reach the play-in than the Hawks, who owe the Spurs their unprotected 2025 first-round pick. That desire will have to be balanced against Atlanta’s hope of developing young talent, most notably first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, who projects to struggle as a 19-year-old rookie.
Average wins: 31.8
Although Chicago has resisted fully tearing down the roster in the pursuit of draft picks, trading Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan (the latter via sign-and-trade) is enough to push their projection into high lottery territory. Because they owe a pick to San Antonio that is top-10 protected, the Bulls will be heavily incentivized to finish with a bottom-six record and avoid having to sweat out keeping it via the draft lottery.
Average wins: 29.4
After an injury-marred 21-61 finish last season, threatening 30 wins would qualify as progress for the Hornets. Despite better health from LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams, this young roster — average projected age at season’s end of 25.1 years, third-lowest in the NBA — isn’t built to compete for a play-in spot.
Average wins: 28.8
Detroit should take a step forward after adding veterans Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. this offseason. The Pistons haven’t won 25 games since they last reached the playoffs in 2018-19, and that’s a reasonable goal under new coach J.B. Bickerstaff.
Average wins: 24.1
After winning 15 games and trading away one of their strongest veterans, 3-and-D wing Deni Avdija, the Wizards have the league’s lowest projection. That still might overstate Washington’s eventual win total given the possibility of trading veterans Malcolm Brogdon and Kyle Kuzma and redistributing those minutes to younger players.
Average wins: 53.7
A year after surpassing their projection by an incredible 18 wins, Oklahoma City now boasts the highest average wins for any team in the league. With a deep, young roster augmented by the offseason additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are the only team to project in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating.
Average wins: 51.1
Despite Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension, the Grizzlies were one of the biggest projection outliers last season, beginning with the West’s best average wins total. (Steven Adams’ season-ending knee injury, announced after I published projections, pushed them to second behind Minnesota.)
Memphis instead dealt with a historic amount of injuries en route to the lottery. This time around, after drafting college standout Zach Edey to fill the hole at center left by the Adams trade, it is near the top of the West again. The core that led Memphis to 50-plus wins the two previous seasons is still intact, and last year helped the Grizzlies develop young depth.
Average wins: 49.7
The Mavericks won at a 55-game pace after the All-Star break and subsequently reached the NBA Finals, so expectations might be higher in Dallas. It’s worth noting that the Mavericks were unusually healthy down the stretch, with Kyrie Irving playing every game from Feb. 5 through Dallas locking up the fifth seed. Something similar to last year’s 50-win finish is reasonable, and the Mavericks’ 49.5-win total at ESPN BET is nearly identical to this mark.
Average wins: 49.4
After averaging 47 wins over the past two seasons, the Kings have their most talented roster yet after moving Harrison Barnes for DeRozan in a sign-and-trade. The question is whether these players will fit as well on the court given DeRozan, like De’Aaron Fox and sixth man Malik Monk, is best with the ball in his hands. I remain skeptical the Kings will finish quite this high in the West.
Average wins: 47.4
Based on plus-minus data, Caldwell-Pope deserved a considerable amount of the credit for a Denver defense that ranked eighth in defensive rating last season after finishing 15th in 2022-23. So although the Nuggets are still projected as the NBA’s third-best offense, their defense rating is worse than average.
Additionally, Denver could be hard-pressed to overachieve again compared to its point differential. The Nuggets won 3.4 more games than expected based on their differential in 2022-23 and 2.7 more last season — clutch domination historically tends to be hard to maintain.
Average wins: 45.4
The veteran Suns are another team that could take a step back due to age. With a weighted age of 29.9 at season’s end, Phoenix was the league’s third-oldest team last season. Injuries tend to come with age, and while Bradley Beal played just 53 games, Kevin Durant (75) played 20 games more than any other season since suffering an Achilles rupture in 2019.
slightly bumped up their projection, the Timberwolves rating barely better than .500 on average a year after finishing second in the West with 56 wins — albeit also two years after going 42-40 in ‘s first season with the team — remains the most surprising result.
Adding both DiVincenzo and Randle helps Minnesota’s questionable depth, but at the cost of top-end talent. Towns projects better than either of the two players the Timberwolves got in return.
Average wins: 41.6
There’s a lot to like about the Pelicans’ roster, which is deep on perimeter players after their offseason trade for Dejounte Murray. The issue is at center, and while I’ve projected plenty of minutes there for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans’ other options — journeyman Daniel Theis, undersized Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, two-way contributor Trey Jemison and rookies Karlo Matkovic and Yves Missi — are lacking. As a result, New Orleans is predicted for a downturn from last season’s 49 wins, albeit with the caveat that they too could easily upgrade midseason.
Average wins: 40.7
This projection reflects the same factors that made the Lakers one of my most likely teams to decline in terms of wins from last season’s 47. The Lakers finished 11th in the West in point differential (plus-0.6), which would typically translate into 42 or 43 wins. Add in the difficulty of veterans Anthony Davis and LeBron James matching last season’s games played and the Lakers could be fighting just to make the play-in.
Average wins: 40.4
Like the Magic, Houston’s projection is held back by multiyear stats for the team’s young prospects, who developed quickly during the 2023-24 season as the Rockets reached .500. Where Houston finishes in the crowded West standings this season shouldn’t have much impact on the franchise’s bright outlook for the future.
Average wins: 36.3
Clippers coach Ty Lue told ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk last month he “can’t wait to prove everybody wrong.” Well, everybody includes these projections, which have the Clippers hard-pressed to stay in the play-in race after losing George.
As noted in my piece on teams most likely to decline, the Clippers’ age and health were concerns even before replacing George with role players Nicolas Batum and Derrick Jones Jr. Players will be forced to create more of their own offense, as the Clippers’ expected rotation had a projected usage rate 14% lower than league average. No other team was more than 6% below average.
Average wins: 33.5
Despite a strong individual projection for Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs’ forecast falls short of their 36.5 over/under total. San Antonio’s final record will depend in large part on how much coach Gregg Popovich prioritizes developing No. 4 pick Stephon Castle, and recent first-rounders Malaki Braham, Jeremy Sochan and Blake Wesley, as opposed to playing veterans who can help more now but are less likely to be part of the Spurs’ promising future.
Average wins: 32.8
After losing 61 games last season, the Blazers added veteran help to their roster in Avdija but return 15 incumbent players overall. Lottery pick Donovan Clingan is the only other newcomer on a full NBA contract. Better health could help Portland be more competitive after no player played more than 72 games for the team last season. The Blazers might not mind accumulating lottery odds in a strong draft, however.
Average wins: 29.2
Having pivoted to young talent after the trade deadline each of the past two seasons, the Jazz have fewer veterans left on the roster to help keep them competitive over the first half of the season. Even with an extension for Lauri Markkanen, Utah has the West’s lowest projection because of a youthful core of guards featuring recent first-round picks Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George and Cody Williams.
