Transfer predictions: How will Real Madrid’s Mbappe, Endrick perform?

For all intents and purposes, Real Madrid replaced Karim Benzema, a 35-year-old center-forward, with Jude Bellingham, a 20-year-old midfielder, last season and won the Champions League. In theory, that shouldn’t make any sense, but this is Madrid’s universe. Whatever they do is probably going to work.

We are living in an era of Premier League dominance. A large percentage of money in soccer either flows into or out of England. According to Deloitte’s annual figures, the Premier League housed six of the 10 clubs that made more than €500 million last year, with Manchester United topping €700m and Manchester City topping €800m. Even this summer, with Premier League teams trying to understand (and/or skate around) new profit and sustainability rules, most of Europe’s biggest transfer moves have come from London, Manchester and Birmingham, England’s three richest cities.

As tilted as the soccer world may be toward England, however, Madrid always has the final say. Real Madrid won its sixth Champions League title in 11 years on June 1. The very next day, they announced they were signing Kylian Mbappé, the best available player in the world. He is probably soccer’s best left-sided attacker, and he’ll now be asked to play with Vinícius Júnior, probably soccer’s second-best left-sided attacker. They gravitate toward almost the exact same places on the pitch.

This could be an awkward fit. And since Real Madrid are the ones attempting it, it will almost certainly work.

As the 2024-25 club season rapidly approaches, let’s talk about what awaits Mbappé and some of the other big names that changed teams this summer. What strengths do they bring to their new teams? What can or should be expected of them?

Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 48 matches, 3,868 minutes, 44 goals from shots worth 36.9 xG, 10 assists from 79 chances created

There was a years-long run-up to the biggest transfer of the summer, with Real Madrid pursuing Mbappé for about half a decade and getting publicly spurned two years ago. It was obviously going to happen, and then it wasn’t … and then it just sort of did. There was no transfer fee to negotiate because Mbappé’s contract at Paris Saint-Germain was expiring; he just announced he was leaving, and Real Madrid announced he was coming, and that was that.

Now we get to see how this forever-anticipated move will actually work.

Last we saw Real Madrid in the Champions League final, they were lining up in a 4-3-1-2 of sorts, with Vinicius and Rodrygo serving as left- and right-sided forwards. They played more narrowly than they had when Benzema was roaming in the middle in more of a 4-3-3. Eduardo Camavinga was the primary pivot man, with Toni Kroos to his left in midfield and Federico Valverde — who had lined up as right winger in the 2022 Champions League final — a bit more advanced to the right.

Even with injuries (and occasionally age) playing a major role in lineup selection at times, Real Madrid spent most of 2023-24 in a shape like this, be it a 4-3-1-2, a 4-4-2 diamond, a more straightforward 4-4-2 or a 4-2-2-2. Aurélien Tchouaméni often started ahead of Camavinga (who sometimes moved to full-back) when healthy, and there was always a spot for 38-year-old string-puller Luka Modric, who played in 46 matches (23 starts, 23 substitute appearances). But the idea was basically the same: There was always a back four, and Bellingham was always marauding as half-midfielder, half-Benzema.

The secret to Real Madrid’s recent success is raw talent and flexibility. Valverde and Camavinga can play just about anywhere, and Bellingham indeed plays two positions at once. When head coach Carlo Ancelotti has to make a general structural change, like moving from a 4-3-3 to something more 4-4-2ish, he’ll do so, and he’ll trust his absurdly versatile and talented charges to figure it out. Eventually, they do.

It would seem Ancelotti has one primary decision to make when it comes to how Real Madrid line up this season: Do you stick with something 4-4-2ish, with Mbappé simply replacing Rodrygo in the lineup, or do you move back toward a 4-3-3, with Mbappé slotting in as a center-forward and Bellingham moving back a bit in midfield? The latter seems the most logical, as Mbappé played as a center-forward for a majority of last season, Bellingham hadn’t really played in such an advanced position until last year, and Rodrygo (17 goals and eight assists in all competitions) has more than earned the right to remain in the lineup.

If that is indeed what Ancelotti chooses, it might most directly impact Bellingham’s stats. Over his final two seasons at Borussia Dortmund, Bellingham averaged 10 goals and 9.5 assists per season in all competitions before erupting for 23 and 13 in his Madrid debut. Mbappé might end up with some of his opportunities.

No matter the formation and specific positions, however, Ancelotti will be asking Mbappé and Vinicius to figure out how to operate together in the same spaces. As individually talented as they are, they indeed gravitate toward the same areas of the pitch in attack.

Here are each player’s touches in sequences leading to one of their shot attempts in 2023-24:

(Source: TruMedia)

While Mbappé in particular has played plenty of minutes in more of a centralized role, when he’s looking to shoot, he’s ending up in the top-left corner of the box. That’s where Vinicius tends to end up as well. If you’re an optimist, you might say this will result in some pretty terrifying two-versus-one or two-versus-two matchups for defenders; if you’re a pessimist, you might say this will result in clutter.

No matter what, it might take these attacking players a little while to build chemistry in the attacking third. Will that result in some early blemishes considering what is likely to happen to Real Madrid in defense? As Ryan O’Hanlon noted in June, despite extreme speed and a young age (25), Mbappé presses less than almost any forward in the world. Will Real Madrid dig itself an early hole with an attack that has to figure itself out and a defense as passive as any in major soccer? And considering how long the season lasts, will an early hole even matter?

Endrick, Real Madrid

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 48 matches, 3,083 minutes, 12 goals from 10.4 xG, two assists from 44 chances created

The impact of Mbappé’s addition will be one of the key storylines of 2024-25. It will also make Endrick’s own role pretty clear. The 18-year-old Brazilian star, initially signed by Real Madrid a year and a half ago, will almost certainly be looked to for energy off the bench. As a center-forward who drifts to the right, he could back up either Mbappé or Rodrygo as Ancelotti looks to ease him in.

It’s important to note that Endrick is in no way a finished product, and it might be good that he won’t be asked to do too much too quickly for Real Madrid. He can score in a lot of different ways: Over his last 12 months in Brazil with Palmeiras, he scored via headers, put-aways, lovely transition play and long-distance screamers; his best moments are already phenomenal. But he also only averaged 2.5 shot attempts per 90 minutes (as a means of unfair comparison, Mbappé averaged double that), and he was most useful when it came to ball progression.

When thrust into a major playmaking role in Brazil’s loss to Uruguay in the Copa America semifinals, Endrick was mostly a no-show, attempting just one long-distance shot in 90 minutes. That’s to be expected, of course — he’s 18, he probably shouldn’t have been in that role to begin with, and not everyone is Lamine Yamal. But it was also a reminder of the jump he’s making in joining the biggest club in the world. His best opportunities will almost certainly come in 10- to 15-minute doses.

Riccardo Calafiori, Arsenal

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 34 matches, 2,545 minutes, five assists from 19 chances created, 312 progressive carries, 170 progressive passes, 457 defensive interventions

A year ago, Calafiori moved from FC Basel in Switzerland to Bologna for a €24.5m transfer fee. In July, he left for Arsenal for nearly double that (€45m). The 22-year-old center-back was one of the key cogs of Bologna’s breakthrough season — they qualified for Champions League play for the first time in nearly 60 years — and set up one of the biggest goals of Euro 2024 as well.

ITALY IN THE 98TH MINUTE 😱

AS IT STANDS ITALY IS MOVING ON 🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/sqK5klDYJQ

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 24, 2024

Now Calafiori heads to north London. It makes sense that his most famous play to date was in attack, as his attacking stats stood out quite a bit in 2023-24. Among Serie A defenders, he ranked fourth in assists (five) and eighth in both progressive carries (287) and pass completions (1,602). He was also aggressive in defense, though, ranking second in ball recoveries (194) and fifth in interceptions (50). He’s poised and assertive. Under manager Thiago Motta, Bologna was basically the Italian version of Arsenal — they were possession-minded but erred on the side of sturdy defense to avoid overextending themselves in attack — and Calafiori was maybe the primary reason they were able to pull off that balancing act.

So why did Calafiori move at a much lower fee a year ago? Injuries. He missed most of his age-16 season with a ligament tear, and in recent seasons he missed more than 20 games to various issues in 2020-21 and 2021-22, then missed nearly that many in 2022-23. Last season was the first time he was able to stick in the lineup and consistently prove what he could do. We’ll see whether good health was the norm or the outlier.

Leny Yoro, Manchester United

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 44 matches, 3,690 minutes, three goals (from 1.7 xG), 397 progressive carries, 224 progressive passes, 458 defensive interventions

Good health has already become an obstacle for the Premier League’s other major center-back signing. Yoro suffered a foot fracture during Manchester United’s preseason friendly with Arsenal in Los Angeles on July 27, and it will likely keep him out of action for about three months. That was a tough blow for a team that suffered so many issues in the back last season.

Yoro might not make his competitive debut for United until close to his 19th birthday in November, but you shouldn’t sign an 18-year-old hoping that he’ll make an immediate splash anyway, even when you pay a €62m transfer fee for him, and even when you desperately need help in defense. (Manchester United ranked 17th in opponents’ shots per possession last season and 18th in the percentage of opponents’ shots coming in the box.)

At 6-foot-3, Yoro looks the part and could quickly make a difference in set-piece opportunities, but he mostly stood out in Ligue 1 with his safe passing. Among defenders, he was fourth in the league in pass attempts (1,874) and fifth in pass completions (1,727). That he logged major minutes at such a young age is encouraging, especially considering Lille was top-four in Ligue 1.

Yoro is not a standout interventionist, but once healthy he should help to produce smoother buildup play for United; considering opponents started 9.7% of possessions in the attacking third last season (16th in the Premier League), that could make a difference.

Joshua Zirkzee, Manchester United

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 37 matches, 2,939 minutes, 12 goals from shots worth 9.9 xG, six assists from 47 chances created

Despite being a center-back, Yoro’s buildup play might mean as much to Manchester United’s attack as it does to their defense. Similarly, despite being a forward, Zirkzee’s extreme energy could mean as much to their defense as it does to their attack. At 6-foot-4, he stands like an old-school center-forward, but the 23-year-old doesn’t play like a good, old No. 9; his value comes from pure energy creation.

Among Serie A forwards, Zirkzee was only 12th in goals (11) and 13th in assists (four), but he was fifth in one-on-one attempts (137), fourth in one-on-ones in the box (23), fifth in pass attempts (900) and fifth in defensive interventions (184). Bologna played length-of-the-pitch defense, something at which Manchester United wasn’t nearly good enough last season. United ranked 10th in the Premier League in passes allowed per defensive action and ninth in ball recoveries; Bologna ranked third and sixth, respectively, in Serie A in those categories, and Zirkzee had a solid role to play in those numbers.

Zirkzee could benefit from the presence of Bruno Fernandes, who’s still one of the best creators in soccer. But if all he does is contribute modest scoring numbers while giving United a fuller defense, that could still be a net gain.

Michael Olise, Bayern Munich

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 19 matches, 1,277 minutes, 10 goals from shots worth 5.5 xG, six assists from 36 chances created

As one would expect, Bayern have not stood still following the end of their 11-year Bundesliga title streak. They replaced manager Thomas Tuchel with an optimistic, younger coach in Vincent Kompany, and they’ve spent nearly €150m in transfer fees to date. More than one-third of that went to Crystal Palace to acquire Olise’s services, and it’s not hard to see why.

Olise was a later bloomer than a lot of the high-upside 22-year-olds we find ourselves talking about these days, but over his last two seasons with Palace, he played 4,277 minutes in all competitions and contributed 12 goals from shots worth 8.8 xG and 17 assists from 116 chances created. He was held back by hamstring issues last season and only recorded 1,277 minutes of action, but (a) that means he’ll fit right in with Bayern’s other injury-prone wingers (Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, et cetera), and (b) he was a bolt of lightning when he finally saw the pitch last season.

(Source: TruMedia)

Among Premier League forwards and midfielders with at least 1,000 minutes, Olise ranked second in combined goals and assists per 90 minutes — at 1.13, he was barely behind Chelsea’s Cole Palmer and barely ahead of Manchester City’s Erling Haaland. On a per-90 basis, he also ranked second in fouls won in the attacking third (1.1), fourth in one-on-one attempts (6.6), fourth in fouls suffered (3.0) and fifth in goals (0.7), assists (0.4) and shots (4.0). He played like he was making up for lost time.

Olise joins a very crowded Bayern attack, one that features both a tantalizing set of younger options (21-year-old Jamal Musiala, 19-year-old Mathys Tel, 22-year-old Bryan Zaragoza, and perhaps 18-year-old Nestory Irankunda) and loads of veterans (34-year-old Thomas Müller, 31-year-old Harry Kane, 29-year-old Gnabry, 28-year-old Leroy Sané, 28-year-old Coman). We’ll see how the minutes shake out, but it’s obvious what Bayern saw in Olise and with his urgent game, he could produce as a starter or sub.

João Palhinha, Bayern Munich

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 39 matches, 3,178 minutes, four goals from shots worth 4.0 xG, one assist from 18 chances created

It was a relatively cruel twist to fire Tuchel and still sign the guy he was begging for last season. Tuchel was desperate for a pure defensive midfielder for last year’s Bayern team and never seemed to have what he wanted at the position. And after falling short of acquiring Palhinha late in last summer’s transfer window, they completed a €51m deal for the 29-year old in July.

Spending that much for an older player — especially one with almost no Champions League experience — was a departure from the “25-and-unders, please” transfer strategy Bayern has otherwise employed this summer. Palhinha doesn’t stand out in many ways, either. But what he does well, he does really well.

(Source: TruMedia)

Among Premier League midfielders, Palhinha ranked first in total defensive interventions — ball recoveries, tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocked shots, blocked crosses, aerials won in the defensive third — with 474 and fourth in duel success rate at 60.9%. His job is to serve as a brick wall in front of the defense, and he’s really good at it. He is not a proven, high-level passer, and his attacking profile is in no way what Bayern tends to offer in midfield. But he protects your defense, and it was clear last year that Tuchel thought Bayern’s defense needed protection that midfielders like Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka weren’t providing.

We’ll see if his presence stultifies the Bayern attack as much as it solidifies the defense, but Bayern have officially gotten the man they clearly thought they needed.

Amadou Onana, Aston Villa

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 37 matches, 2,697 minutes, three goals from shots worth 3.0 xG, one assist from 24 chances created

This hasn’t been the biggest-spending transfer window we’ve ever seen. No one in Europe has yet topped the €62m fee Manchester United laid down for Yoro, and Villa were the only team that have come particularly close, sending €59.4m to Everton for the right to deploy Onana as their own version of Palhinha.

Onana’s attacking numbers were modest at Everton; he did rank second on the team in progressive passes within Sean Dyche’s direct offense, but he was fifth on the team in pass attempts and seventh in touches and shot attempts. Where he stood out was in protection. Among Premier League midfielders, he ranked first in duel success rate (65.9%) and first in aerial success rate (73.6%). He was rarely dispossessed (just 10 times all season), and he could force the issue well at times, suffering 45 fouls (15th). But when a ball drifts into the deep midfield, his job is to win it, and he does a pretty good job of it.

It’s hard to say that a player in that role is worth such a large fee, especially for a club that had to make a few June moves — and sent midfielder Douglas Luiz to Juventus for €51.5m in July — to get on the right side of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability rules. But Onana is only 22, which helps, and you can certainly see why Villa felt the need to protect their defense a bit more.

It was mainly the attack that led Villa to a surprise fourth-place finish and Champions League berth last season. While they ranked fourth in goals per possession and fourth in xG per shot, they also ranked 19th in xG allowed per shot; 73% of opponents’ shots came in the box, most in the league. Their possession game was pretty good, but opponents were sometimes able to carve them up in transition. We’ll see how Onana fits into a far more possession-friendly structure, but if he cuts off an extra counterattack or two per match, he could live up to his transfer fee.

Douglas Luiz, Juventus

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 53 matches, 4,351 minutes, 10 goals from shots worth 9.7 xG, 10 assists from 77 chances created

Thus far, European clubs have made five moves with fees of €50m or higher: Yoro to Manchester United, Onana to Villa, Olise and Palhinha to Bayern and Luiz to Juve. Juventus have been attempting to get their midfield right for years. They brought in Paul Pogba in 2022-23 but watched him suffer first a long-term injury, then a long-term suspension. Now, with former Bologna boss Thiago Motta in charge, they’ve invested heavily to bring in Luiz and 23-year-old Khephren Thuram.

Luiz, 26, lined up as a defensive midfielder for Villa, but his biggest contributions came in attack. (Again: Villa were better at scoring than preventing opponents from doing the same.) Among Premier League midfielders, Luiz was sixth in goals (nine), eighth in both pass completions (1,763) and progressive carries (251) and ninth in total touches. He sews together a pretty good passing game, and now, after five seasons with 2,000-plus Premier League minutes, he moves to a league that offers you a bit more time on the ball. Motta is pretty good at using ball possession as defense, and considering Luiz is better at possession than defense, this move certainly has logic behind it.

Artem Dovbyk and Matìas Soulè, AS Roma

• Dovbyk’s primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 40 matches, 2,770 minutes, 24 goals from shots worth 24.7 xG, 10 assists from 34 chances created

After replacing manager Jose Mourinho with Daniele de Rossi in mid-January, Roma immediately became one of the better teams in Italy, ranking fourth in points per game and fourth in goals scored. And now they’ve overhauled their attack, bringing in 21-year-old Juve winger Soulè (11 goals and three assists on loan with Frosinone last season) and, on Friday, signing Dovbyk, LaLiga’s most prolific goal scorer in 2023-24, to replace Romelu Lukaku.

Dovbyk was a genuine late bloomer: He had never topped 12 goals in all competitions until he scored 14 for Ukraine’s SC Dnipro-1 at age 24 in 2021-22. But then he scored 29 the next season, leading Dnipro to a shocking second-place finish. (It’s shocking anytime someone other than Shakhtar Donetsk or Dynamo Kyiv snags a top-two spot.) And after a €7.8m move to Girona last season, he indeed led the league with 24 more.

Dovbyk’s job is the finishing move. Among LaLiga forwards, he was only 47th in total touches, 57th in progressive passes, 79th in progressive carries and 84th in ball recoveries. But he was first in goals, first in shots on goal, first in total xG (24.3) — he was first in set pieces and open play, too — fifth in total shots and fifth in assists.

One can see the vision of pairing Dovbyk with Soule. Soule’s a decent scorer in his own right, but he’s also one hell of a chaos agent. Among Serie A forwards last season he was first in defensive interventions, first in one-on-one attempts, first in progressive passes and first in chances created. The thought of Soule, captain Lorenzo Pellegrini and league assists leader Paulo Dybala making things happen and Dovbyk finishing the move is an awfully promising one.

Serhou Guirassy, Borussia Dortmund

• Primary 2023-24 stats (all competitions): 30 matches, 2,376 minutes, 30 goals from shots worth 22.5 xG, 3 assists from 60 chances created

Mbappé? Kane? Haaland? Dovbyk? All great. But on a per-minute basis, Guirassy was the best scorer in Europe’s Big Five leagues last season, and thanks to a low release clause, Dortmund just landed him for only an €18m transfer fee.

(Source: TruMedia)

Long a solid but injury-prone attacker, Guirassy hit career highs in terms of both goals (30 in all competitions) and minutes (2,376) last season at VfB Stuttgart. No one was better at carving out high-value real estate: 34.7% of his shot attempts were worth at least 0.2 xG, and while that percentage does include four penalty attempts, it includes 23 other shots too.