Ranked: The 15 best Premier League teams to lose the title

I’m going to let you in on a little industry secret: The Premier League table lies.

Much like the famous quote from former NFL coach Bill Parcells, “You are what your record says you are,” the idea that the Premier League table is the final source of truth about the quality of all 20 teams isn’t quite right. And I don’t even mean that in some confusing, underlying-numbers-y, your-eyes-are-lying-to-you kind of way. (Although, that is also true.)

Instead, I mean that all the Premier League table tells us through 38 games is how many points all 20 teams won in relation to each other.

Uh, yeah? OK, dude, what are you getting at?

Unlike American sports with playoffs or even the Champions League, you actually don’t have to beat the best in order to be the best. Outside of the two games you get against the best teams in the league, your standing in the table is largely determined by how well or poorly everyone else plays against each other.

Right, Arsenal fans? The Gunners took four out of six points against both Manchester City and Liverpool, outscoring the past two teams to win the Premier League title by a combined 5-2 scoreline over four games. And yet, the Gunners head into the final weekend of the season with just a 7% chance of winning the league, per ESPN BET’s odds.

The main reason Arsenal are unlikely to win the league is not that Arsenal aren’t a title-caliber team — it’s that they happen to be a title-caliber team in the same season as Manchester City, the title-caliber team in six of the past seven years.

Regardless of what happens Sunday in the final matchday of the campaign, this season is going to produce at least one of the greatest second-place teams in Premier League history, and it’ll also mark the end of the road for the greatest second-place manager in Premier League history.

So, you know what that means: It’s time to rank the 15 greatest teams that didn’t win the Premier League! From Chelsea to Manchester United and more, plus a couple other teams from this season (ahem), we’ll measure what made these teams so great, even if their runs didn’t end in a title.

T1. Liverpool, 2021-22

Points per game: 2.42
Goal differential per game: +1.79

T1. Liverpool, 2018-19

Points per game: 2.55
Goal differential per game: +1.76

First, let’s hit the complex, artificial-intelligence-powered, machine-learning-derived system that brought us here. I ranked every team that didn’t win the Premier League by two metrics: points per game and goal differential per game. (We’re using per-game numbers because the Premier League season was 42 games long until 1995, when it switched to the current 38-game structure.) Then, I added up each team’s two rankings. The team with the lowest total got first, the team with the second-lowest total got second, and so on.

Well, Jurgen Klopp’s 2021-22 Liverpool team produced the best goal differential among non-title-winners and the second-best point total, while his 2018-19 side did the opposite: best point total among non-winners and second-best goal differential.

However, I still think that undersells how good these teams were. The 2021-22 team had the fourth-best goal differential in the history of the league. The 2018-19 team had the fourth-best points total in the history of the league. If we just use those metrics to predict the likelihood of winning the Premier League — good enough to win in 29 out of 32 seasons — they would each have produced a winner 91% of the time. And if you take those probabilities together, then there was a 0.8% chance that Liverpool wouldn’t win at least one title from one of those seasons.

Thankfully, the 2018-19 iteration won the Champions League, while the 2021-22 side took home both domestic cups and also reached the Champions League final. So, that leaves the next team on our list with the unwanted likely designation of Best Premier League Team to Not Win Any Silverware…

3. Arsenal, 2023-24

Points per game: 2.32
Goal differential per game: +1.65

Now, the title still could happen for this Arsenal side. It’s not as if Manchester City played Tottenham off the field on Tuesday, and the last time Man City were in this same situation, they found themselves losing by two goals with 15 minutes left in the season before scoring three against Aston Villa to take the title out of 2021-22 Liverpool’s hands.

But it’s very unlikely to happen. If Man City beat West Ham on Sunday — a good bet — it’s over. So, we’re going to slot Arsenal in at three for now. And unless they outright lose to Everton on Sunday, their positioning on this list isn’t going to change.

It seems almost inevitable that some people with anonymous Twitter accounts or terrible podcasts will claim that Arsenal choked this season away — same old Arsenal, whatever, whatever. These people are not to be trusted. Do not give them your ears, your eyes, or your attention. No matter where they finish, Mikel Arteta’s current iteration of Arsenal is a truly great Premier League team.

Over the league’s 31 completed seasons, the average title winner did the following:

• 2.29 points per game
• 2.15 goals per game
• 0.83 goals against per game
• +1.32 goal difference per game

This is what Arsenal have done so far this season:

• 2.32 points per game
• 2.41 goals per game
• 0.76 goals against per game
• +1.65 goal difference per game

They’ve won more points than the average champion, they’ve scored way more goals than the average champion and they’ve conceded significantly fewer goals than the average champion.

If they win on Sunday, only 13 teams in the history of the league will have won more points in a season than the Gunners. They seem likely to end the season with the rare distinction of leading the league in goal differential but not winning the league. And that’s not a fluke: they’re likely to finish the year with the best expected-goal differential, too:

As the third-youngest team in the league when weighted by minutes played, Arsenal appear better positioned to stay at this level than Man City or Liverpool, both of whom are around midtable for their weighted ages. Barring an injury crisis or the departure of a key star or some kind of structural change to the way the sport works, Arsenal seem likely to win a major trophy at some point.

But as their placement on this list suggests, it’s also possible that they could improve … and still not win the league.

T4. Manchester United, 2011-12

Points per game: 2.35
Goal differential per game: +1.47

T4. Tottenham, 2016-17

Points per game: 2.26
Goal differential per game: +1.58

Here’s one source of hope for Arsenal fans — and one source of despair.

In 2012, Manchester United had the title ripped away from them by Manchester City with the last kick of the season.

That moment seemed like it marked the beginning of the end. No matter how hard they tried, the old money of the Premier League couldn’t hold off the new money. Earlier in the season, City had beaten United 6-1 at Old Trafford, and although they almost let it slip away over the final few months, AGUEROOOOOOOOO confirmed the new pecking order in the Premier League.

Until it didn’t stick — at least for one more year. Although their goal difference dropped from plus-56 to plus-43, United won 89 points for the second season in a row in 2012-13 and secured Sir Alex Ferguson’s 13th league title in his 21st and final Premier League season.

Except, Arsenal look a lot more like 2016-17 Tottenham than 2012-13 United. That United team was powered by 28-year-old Robin van Persie’s final season as a world-class striker, plus 98 combined starts from Michael Carrick, Patrice Evra, and Rio Ferdinand — all of whom were 31 or older at the start of the season. Spurs, meanwhile, led the league in goal differential with the youngest roster in the league.

With an average weighted age of 25.3, Tottenham were younger than Arsenal’s current collective of 25.8. In the six full seasons since, Spurs never finished higher than third again, and the closest they came to a major trophy was the Champions League final loss to Liverpool in 2019. Being great and being young at the same time isn’t a guarantee of future success.

6. Manchester United, 2009-10

Points per game: 2.24
Goal differential per game: +1.58

Let’s take a moment to appreciate the absurd consistency of United over Sir Alex Ferguson’s final eight seasons with the club. Their point totals, in chronological order: 83, 89, 87, 90, 85, 80, 89, and 89. That was good enough for five titles. In the current era, though, they’re probably only taking home two or three trophies from that same points haul.

Since Ferguson left the club, they haven’t won more than 81 points. And in the 10 full seasons since his departure, they’ve averaged 69 points.

7. Liverpool, 2008-09

Points per game: 2.26
Goal differential per game: +1.32

Avert your eyes, Liverpool fans:

This same season, Liverpool beat Manchester United twice: 4-1 at Old Trafford and 2-1 at Anfield. They only lost two games all season — and they still lost the league to United, by four points.

8. Liverpool, 2013-14

Points per game: 2.21
Goal differential per game: +1.34

We have a bingo!

Finish second despite an all-time great point total? Finish second despite an all-time great goal differential? Finish second despite beating the first-place team twice? And finish second despite beating the first-place team in what appeared to be a de facto championship game with just four games left in the season?

Liverpool have done it all.

Yet while “The Slip” was tragic, it does raise an interesting question. If Liverpool win the league in 2013-14, then that creates more job security for then-manager Brendan Rodgers and the club probably doesn’t jump to cut ties with him in order to hire the suddenly available Jurgen Klopp in the middle of the 2015-16 season. And so, if Steven Gerrard doesn’t fall against Chelsea, does it mean that the Klopp era never happens?

9. Arsenal, 2004-05

Points per game: 2.18
Goal differential per game: +1.34

This is one of the more underappreciated Premier League seasons. A year after literally going undefeated, Arsenal improved their goal differential by four goals: That plus-51 was the best mark in the club’s Premier League history until this season. They didn’t repeat because Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich hired Jose Mourinho, and Chelsea conceded an absurd 15 goals en route to notching a then-league-record 95 points.

Across the Premier League’s 32 campaigns, only a handful of players have contributed as many non-penalty goals and assists as there were games in the season. For Newcastle in 1993-94, Andy Cole scored 32 goals and added 14 assists across 42 games. In 2009-10, Didier Drogba hit exactly 38 in 38 for Chelsea: 28 goals and 10 assists. In 2013-14, Liverpool’s Luis Suárez scored 31 goals and added 12 assists across 38 games. Four years later, Mohamed Salah went for 31 and 10 for Liverpool.

The only player to do it twice, though, was Arsenal’s Thierry Henry. In 2002-03, he became the only Premier League player to score 20 non-penalty goals and register 20 assists. (Yes, he hit both marks exactly.) And then in 2004-05, he went for 25 and 14.

The funny part? Arsenal won the league in the season between those two.

10. Manchester City, 2019-20

Points per game: 2.13
Goal differential per game: +1.76

A truly weird team that we’ll never talk about because they didn’t come close to winning the league, lost to Lyon in the Champions League, and did it all during the season when the world shut down for COVID-19.

Why are they weird? Well, despite Liverpool winning 99 points in 2019-20, City produced a significantly better goal differential: plus-67 to plus-52. This City team had the joint-sixth-best goal differential in the history of the Premier League … but somehow turned that into just the 43rd-most points.

The big takeaway from that: Goal differential is a better indicator of future performance than points. City look likely to win their fourth straight league title since 2019-20, while Liverpool have yet to do it again.

11. Arsenal, 2022-23

Points per game: 2.21
Goal differential per game: +1.18

If Arsenal win on Sunday, they’ll have won 173 points over the past two seasons. As you can probably deduce from this list, that will be the most points a team has ever won while finishing second in consecutive seasons.

12. Chelsea, 2008-09

Points per game: 2.18
Goal differential per game: +1.16

We have our first third-place team on the list and our first team that fired its coach during the season.

After being hired out of the national-team game to replace Avram Grant in the summer of 2008, Luiz Felipe Scolari only made it to February before becoming the fourth manager fired by Abramovich in as many years of owning the club. In came Guus Hiddink on an interim basis, and Chelsea lost only one of their final 19 matches. They were also minutes away from reaching the Champions League final before an Andres Iniesta goal in injury time tied the match 1-1 and put Barcelona ahead on away goals.

That following summer, Carlo Ancelotti was hired as the permanent manager. In his first season, the club scored 103 goals, posted the then-best goal differential in league history, and won the title.

13. Arsenal, 2007-08

Points per game: 2.18
Goal differential per game: +1.13

We have our first third-place team on the list that rates higher than the second-place team from that same season. Although this was Arsenal’s first season without Thierry Henry after his move to Barcelona, they won 15 more points than in either of the prior two seasons and improved their goal differential by six.

Would Arsenal be able to not only survive the departure of the greatest attacker in Premier League history, but thrive? Not quite. The next time they broke the 80-point mark in a season was last season.

14. Chelsea, 2013-14

Points per game: 2.16
Goal differential per game: +1.16

At this point, we’ve gone through 13 teams from past seasons. Of them:

• Six went on to win the league the next season
• One improved their point total but (likely) didn’t win the league the next season
• Six got worse the following season

Is it that some sides find inspiration from coming so close to winning while other sides crumble in the face of the disappointment and there’s no in between? Perhaps, but the more likely explanation is that title-contending windows are quite short because players’ primes are quite short.

So, if you get close enough to winning the league to appear on this list, it means you’re either at the beginning of the window and likely to sustain it for another season or two, or you’re at the end and things are only likely to get worse.

Chelsea serve as a nice example of the idea. They were very good in 2013-14, got even better when they won the league in 2014-15, and then completely imploded in 2015-16, when they fired Mourinho midseason and ultimately finished in 10th place.

15. Liverpool, 2023-24

Points per game: 2.14
Goal differential per game: +1.16

Liverpool could bounce up or down a spot or two, depending on how their match at home against Wolverhampton goes on Sunday. But while this team was at one point favorites to win the Premier League and Europa League, the Klopp era at Liverpool is instead going to end with something we’ve rarely seen before: a meaningless match to end the season.