The first round of last year’s NBA playoffs featured four upsets in terms of seeding, the most in any season since the league adopted its current 16-team format in 1984. Which teams have the best chance of following in their footsteps this year?
Historically, last season was an outlier. There were no first-round upsets in terms of seeding in 2022, and just two total from 2019 to 2022. However, some of the same factors that produced a topsy-turvy opening round a year ago could be in play again.
With compact standings in the East aside from the top-seeded Boston Celtics, all three other first-round matchups will feature teams separated by no more than three games during the regular season. Only the West’s 4-5 matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and LA Clippers meets that standard, but the No. 6 seed Phoenix Suns are actually favored over the No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves by virtue of their star talent and playoff experience.
My model of upset chances is based on three factors that have been predictive historically: regular-season performance (as measured by net rating), roster quality (as based on SCHOENE projections and my prediction for first-round playing time) and pre-playoffs title odds at ESPN BET. Let’s look at this year’s upset probabilities through that prism.
Dallas Mavericks (5) vs. LA Clippers (4): 52%
The Mavericks are the lone lower seed my model favors thanks to their strong roster rating after adding starters Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline. With those newcomers in key roles, Luka Doncic playing at an MVP level and Kyrie Irving healthy, Dallas went 16-2 over its last 18 competitive games to move up from the play-in to the fifth seed.
On the other side, the Clippers’ talent rating is hampered by questions about Kawhi Leonard’s availability for this series. Leonard, who hasn’t played since March 31 because of a knee contusion, is questionable for Sunday’s Game 1. I’ve projected Kawhi for 28 minutes per game in this series, reflecting the possibility that he misses time. And the market is concerned enough that the Mavericks are also slight favorites at ESPN BET.
Philadelphia 76ers (7) vs. New York Knicks (2): 48%
The Sixers are an atypically scary No. 7 seed after playing two months without reigning MVP Joel Embiid following knee surgery. In the 39 games Embiid played, Philadelphia went 31-8, a 65-win pace over a full season. Because the 76ers faced a much easier schedule with Embiid in the lineup, they weren’t quite as dominant as that record looks, but their talent rating still surpasses the Knicks’ without All-Star forward Julius Randle, who is out for the playoffs following shoulder surgery.
ESPN BET has this as the closest first-round series, with Philadelphia ever so slightly favored, though my model gives the edge to the Knicks.
Brian Windhorst explains to Pat McAfee all the issues the Bucks are facing ahead of their first-round matchup against the Pacers.
Indiana Pacers (6) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (3): 40%
Like Dallas, Indiana is a lower-seeded favorite in large part because of health concerns for the higher seed. Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss at least Game 1 because of a calf injury. Because ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Tuesday that the Bucks are hopeful Giannis can return at some point in this series, I’ve projected him for 20 MPG. If we rule him out entirely, this series becomes a toss-up in my model, with a 48% chance of the Pacers prevailing.
This series will be an interesting data point on the importance of head-to-head results. Indiana won four of five meetings, including the semifinals of the in-season tournament in Las Vegas. All five games were played before Doc Rivers replaced Adrian Griffin as Milwaukee’s coach (and before the Pacers’ trade for Pascal Siakam), however. In recent years, the season series has been less predictive of playoff upsets, perhaps in part because of subsequent roster changes.
Phoenix Suns (6) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (3): 33%
This is the biggest divergence between the market and my model. Although the Minnesota and Phoenix rosters are rated closer in terms of talent than their seven-win gap in the standings would typically suggest, my ratings give the Timberwolves the talent edge. The Suns have been better of late, going 16-9 over their final 25 games to avoid the play-in, but it’s worth noting Minnesota had an identical record during that span despite playing most of it without injured All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns.
Towns returned for the final weekend of the regular season, including Phoenix’s win in the regular-season finale that both teams wanted desperately to win. (Minnesota would have been the No. 2 seed with a victory.) That gave the Suns a 3-0 season sweep, surely one factor in why they’re favored.
Orlando Magic (5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4): 30%
Although the Magic finished a game back of the Cavaliers with a similar net rating, the model downgrades their upset chances for a couple of reasons. First, Cleveland’s roster rates better by virtue of past track record. A year ago, the Cavaliers had the NBA’s second-best net rating before collapsing in a first-round loss to the lower-seeded Knicks, while Orlando was in the lottery. Additionally, the Magic have the longest title odds at ESPN BET.
One factor my model can’t incorporate: Donovan Mitchell playing at less than 100 percent while dealing with knee soreness.
New Orleans Pelicans (8) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (1): 18%
This is a case where the results and the talent ratings don’t line up, in large part because of Zion Williamson’s injury. Despite the Pelicans’ depth, their talent rating ranks 14th of the 16 playoff teams without Zion. They were sixth in net rating during the regular season at plus-4.6, the biggest reason my model still gives them a legitimate chance to pull the upset.
Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Denver Nuggets (2): 17%
A relatively strong rating for the Lakers’ roster — seventh best among all playoff teams — can’t overcome the many advantages of the defending champs. The Nuggets have the second-best title odds, stronger talent and a better regular-season net rating, making them clear favorites without even considering the way they’ve dominated the Lakers head-to-head.
Miami Heat (8) vs. Boston Celtics (1): 2%
With Jimmy Butler expected to miss several weeks, per Wojnarowski, the Heat’s talent rating is the worst of any team to reach the playoffs. Without Butler, beating the 64-win Celtics would qualify as a far bigger upset than the one Miami pulled as the No. 8 seed against Milwaukee a year ago. Not only are the Heat weaker without Butler, who isn’t projected to play any minutes in my model, but Boston was also far more dominant during the regular season than the 2022-23 Bucks.
