NBA Rookie Power Rankings: What does the future hold for Victor Wembanyama?

The 2023-24 regular season is coming to a close, which means that in a few short days this season’s rookies won’t be rookies anymore. But before they graduate to veteran status, ESPN’s Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton are providing one last ranking of the Class of 2024, starting at the top with the presumptive Rookie of the Year and how his team can build around him in the future.

Marks: Kevin, I think we are past the point of debating whether Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren should win Rookie of the Year.

No offense to Holmgren, who continues to have a strong season, but since the All-Star break, Wembanyama has played at an All-NBA and All-Defense level. Wembanyama had two games with 30 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks as a rookie. The only players to do that more often over the course of their entire careers were Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal and David Robinson.

So rather than rehash the debate, let’s jump ahead to the offseason.

The Spurs have lost 60 games for the fourth time in franchise history, despite Wembanyama’s incredible season.

What did this season teach you about how the Spurs should build a roster around their star player?

Pelton: I’d say it reinforced more than anything. I was skeptical from the start of pairing Wembanyama with another center (Zach Collins), and while the idea of experimenting with Jeremy Sochan at point guard was interesting, it was always evident Wembanyama needed more playmaking help.

Since San Antonio moved Wembanyama to the 5 and Tre Jones into the starting lineup, the Spurs are a respectable 15-31 with a league-average defense, having started 5-28 with the 25th-ranked defensive rating before that.

Perhaps the best thing that stretch did was prove to Wembanyama himself how important it is to play center despite the physical toll it exacts. Now, because of his defensive potential, San Antonio should be prioritizing shooting and playmaking at all four other positions with defensive versatility as a plus.

That leads to the question of which guys currently on the roster fit well with Wembanyama. Who are the keepers, Bobby?

Marks: I think we learned that one of those players is not Collins. The Spurs signed Collins to a two-year, $34.8 million extension before the season started and learned an expensive lesson that the pairing does not work.

For more context, the Spurs averaged 102.3 points per 100 possessions and had a net rating of minus-12.2 when Collins and Wembanyama were on the court together. For comparison, when Wembanyama was at center alongside Jones, Sochan, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, San Antonio averaged 127.3 points per 100 possessions with a net rating of plus-25.6.

I agree with you that a veteran playmaker and shooting should be the priority this offseason. The Spurs ranked second in assists and Jones averaged career highs in points, assists, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

And while the blame should not fall on Jones’ shoulders, San Antonio was 12-28 this season in clutch games. They averaged 1.2 turnovers per game in clutch time, third-worst among all teams.

Jones is on an inexpensive $9.2 million contract for next season and still has value for San Antonio but in a different role than starter.

The Spurs ranked 28th in 3-point field goal percentage this season and were 0-15 when they attempted 40 or more 3s. The only players who shot better than 37.5% from 3 were Doug McDermott and Cedi Osman. McDermott was traded to Indiana in February and Osman will become a free agent this summer.

Kevin, the Spurs are in this unique position where they have a franchise player in Wembanyama, a likely top-4 pick in June, $25-30 million in cap space and the possibility of an unprecedented five first-round picks in 2025. They rank tied with Utah as having the most tradable first-round picks (nine).

So do you use that draft equity to accelerate the rebuild around Wembanyama but at a cost of significant draft equity (for example Trae Young or Darius Garland if either player becomes available) or do you remain conservative, waiting until the 2025 offseason?

Pelton: I would be open to making a move but not in a hurry to force things and make the same kind of mistake the Dallas Mavericks did in dealing for Kristaps Porzingis during Luka Doncic’s rookie season, a deal the Mavericks will finally finish paying off with this year’s first-round pick.

I don’t like the idea of dealing for Young. I see the appeal of juicing the offense with Young’s pick-and-roll playmaking while hoping Wembanyama can cover up on defense, but I’d prefer to pair Wemby with a more dangerous off-ball threat who can be more competitive on defense. Garland seems to fit that bill. I’d definitely give Cleveland a call in the event Donovan Mitchell signs an extension and the Cavaliers want to put more size next to him in the backcourt.

Do you agree about prioritizing Garland? And if San Antonio’s biggest addition to the roster this summer comes via free agency instead of a trade, who would you target?

Marks: I am not emptying the basket of draft assets for Trae Young. I agree, Garland is a better fit and I would keep an eye on the Cavaliers if they exit in the first round again.

The Spurs are not flushed with cap space like Detroit and Philadelphia. I project them to have $25 million in room, which includes the cap hold for their first-round pick, but accounts for waiving Devonte’ Graham and Charles Bassey and renouncing all their free agents.

If there is no trade to be made, I would target Tyus Jones, Tre Jones’ older brother, if they can get him on a starting salary in the $14 million to $16 million range, then target some lower-cost shooters (Gary Harris for an example).

Kevin, let’s switch gears and look at the rest of the rookie class.

We had Chet Holmgren at the top spot in these rookie rankings for much of the year. In any other season, he would likely win Rookie of the Year.

He was the first player in NBA history with 150 assists, 150 blocks and 100 3-pointers in a season (a club Wembanyama joined soon after).

Outside of Wembanyama and Holmgren, who other rookies were you high on?

Pelton: Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Brandin Podziemski are in a similar group to me as players who have contributed in heavy minutes for postseason teams. Dereck Lively II was in the same tier before missing so much time with injuries. He’s going to finish with at least 700 fewer minutes than both Jaquez and Podziemski.

I’d have both Jaquez and Podziemski on my All-Rookie first team. The trickier case is No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, who was asked to play a much larger role on a Charlotte Hornets team that played nearly the entire season without star point guard LaMelo Ball.

Miller has averaged 17.3 PPG, second among rookies behind Wembanyama, but his advanced numbers were poor because of limited free throw attempts (2.5 per 36 minutes) and how bad the Hornets were defensively with him on the court. (They weren’t much better with him on the bench.) We both had Miller sixth in our most recent rookie rankings. Where do you land at season’s end?

Marks: Wembanyama, Holmgren, Podziemski and Jaquez are in my top four.

As you said, the quagmire comes with the last spot.

There is a case to be made for Miller, who averaged 19.3 points and shot 36.8% from 3 since the start of March. He also picked up at the free throw line, totaling 15 attempts in his past three games, the most he’s had in a three-game stretch this season. However, since the start of March, the Hornets are 4-15, and 12 of those 15 losses were by double digits.

That said, I would still put Miller in the top five, more because Lively has missed 24 games this season and has not played since April 4, while Miller has played 72 games so far, never missing more than two in a row.

Kevin, let’s wrap this up and take a look at spots 6-10 and some players that should get All-Rookie votes.

Pelton: So far we’ve named six players. To me, the other four that fill out the All-Rookie teams are the Thompson twins, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Cason Wallace. Jackson-Davis moving into the starting lineup has coincided with the Warriors’ late surge, while Wallace is playing a key role off the bench for one of the NBA’s best teams.

Despite their limited shooting range, both Thompsons have made significant positive impact with their defense and activity. I’m fascinated by how the Houston Rockets have essentially used Amen Thompson as their center on offense since Alperen Sengun went out of the lineup, putting him in more favorable positions around the basket while making them even more versatile and terrifying defensively.

Bobby, would you have anyone else on your All-Rookie second team? And which other players merited consideration?