This week, we highlight Nikola Jokic and the running Nuggets, a screening Tyrese Haliburton, a nifty Bam Adebayo development, a theory about the demise of Jordan Poole and two delightful rituals you need to see.
Jump to Lowe’s Things:
MVP is Jokic’s to lose | Hali the screener?
Promising Raptors rookie | Staggering Pistons rotations
Beware of Suggs | Bam’s left hand
What happened to Poole?Two Cavs rituals
and the single scariest sight in the NBA
Apologies to Los Angeles Lakers fans for making them relive last year’s conference finals sweep — though this clip is actually from Denver’s Feb. 8 win — but this is officially the most terrifying sight in basketball:
If your center pursues an offensive rebound and loses out to Jokic — and then ends up trailing Jokic in semi-transition — just cover your eyes and assume the worst. It has been happening more lately as the champs shift into something closer to playoff gear.
The Nuggets do not run much. They are 27th in pace and dead last in scoring efficiency in transition, per Cleaning The Glass — abysmal off both steals and live rebounds. Their pace mostly suits them. The Nuggets’ brilliance — the reason they are a better postseason team than regular-season team — lies in the methodical nature of the Jamal Murray-Jokic two-man game.
They pick you apart one cut, screen, hesitation dribble and eyebrow fake at a time — so slow and precise, you almost don’t notice how much trouble you’re in when the shot clock ticks into single digits and Jokic slings the final blow. They are comfortable where most offenses grow skittish — in crowds, in the muck, in the midrange. They are unbothered by schemes, zones, switches, whatever tactics you try.
But they reach another gear when they pounce on transition chances. It unleashes their role players for easy baskets, and helps the Nuggets generate more 3s. The Nuggets have sunk from 22nd in 3-point rate last season to 28th now, and they become very hard to beat when Jokic rumbles them into a few extra open 3s.
Even amid this rickety fast-breaking season, the Nuggets are miles more efficient in transition with Jokic on the floor, per Cleaning The Glass.
Since Feb. 1, the Nuggets rank fifth in the percentage of possessions that come in transition, per Cleaning The Glass. In that same stretch, they are fourth in scoring efficiency off live rebounds, according to Inpredictable.
Jokic has seven triple-doubles in his past 15 games with some truly preposterous stat lines. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scores on automatic and has imbued the young Oklahoma City Thunder with bravado beyond their years. Luka Doncic is ridiculous, and has time to keep pushing the revamped Dallas Mavericks up the packed West standings. Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t gone anywhere. Jayson Tatum would fall below those four on my personal MVP ballot, but he is the best player on the best team — and that merits attention. Several other candidates deserve a deep look.
But the award is, again, Jokic’s to lose. He is the world’s best player — the reason Denver should still be regarded as the favorite in the West despite sitting at No. 3 behind the Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.
pick-and-roll was a mainstay of Indiana’s scoring machine before the Pacers flipped Hield to the Philadelphia 76ers. The Pacers were cagey springing it out of almost nowhere so defenses could not prepare to switch it. Hield would slip picks at full blast, flaring for 3s.
With Hield gone — and Indiana feeling the absence of his shooting — the Pacers would be smart to dial up Haliburton’s usage as a screener a bit, both on and off the ball. Haliburton is an elite shooter on the move with a knack for relocating. That kind of player setting screens causes havoc; defenses stay attached to them in fear of conceding any space, and that frees up cutters and drivers — including Andrew Nembhard above.
Look how fast that play unfolds. Nembhard and Haliburton exchange three passes before Haliburton zooms toward Nembhard. Haliburton fakes a screen, ducks under Nembhard’s man and beelines toward half court. The defenders have no idea what to do.
Haliburton has set 78 on-ball screens and 75 off-ball picks this season, per Second Spectrum — about three combined per game. The Pacers could jack that up to around 10, enough to impact the game without siphoning too much ballhandling from Haliburton.
Haliburton and Pascal Siakam have played only 14 games together — several with Haliburton under a minutes restriction. All three of Siakam, Nembhard and Myles Turner are shooting slightly below average from deep. It will take time for Indiana to suss out spacing and touches.
But the early results are encouraging. The Pacers are plus-four per 100 possessions in 337 minutes with Haliburton and Siakam on the floor. Siakam has brought rangy, multi-positional defense and new elements to the Pacers’ offense: midrange scoring, passing from the post and the ability to work either end of a pick-and-roll with Haliburton.
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3. Gradey Dick, on the move
Dick has cracked double figures in four of his past seven games — including three 18-point games — despite averaging only about 20 minutes as a reserve. The Toronto Raptors have been starving for a movement shooter, and Dick roves in unpredictable patterns. He’s tall and can speed up his release to launch in tight confines.
He has nifty chemistry with Kelly Olynyk:
Toronto runs that set a lot: Dick screening for the Raptors’ lead ball handler — Scottie Barnes here — and then rocketing off a flare screen from Olynyk. The first screen puts defenses in a bind. Switching usually results in a weaker defender taking Barnes. Dick’s defender lingering to help on Barnes risks leaving Dick open for a triple.
Part two — Olynyk’s screen — might create even more bad choices, since it pairs two players of different sizes who can both hit quick-trigger 3s. Switch, and Olynyk plows his way to the basket. Trapping Dick opens a runway for Olynyk, and Dick can already make those passes.
These actions only work in the long haul if the offensive team has counters depending on the defense response.
This time, the Pacers stay closer to Dick and stick to Olynyk instead of trapping. Dick reads all of that, and flies to the rim.
Dick looks like a capable role player. Opponents will hunt him on defense, and some matchups will be too much for him. But Dick moves his feet and has good anticipation.
The Raptors probably didn’t get quite as much as they hoped in the combined Siakam and OG Anunoby deals, but they may have ended up with about 80% or 90% of what they would have received had they moved a year earlier. Giving last season’s team a shot was worth that gap in trade return.
was a nice flier, and very on brand for a franchise that seems to want to reboot and remain at least semi-competitive at the same time.
4. Some staggering rotations in Detroit
Well, at least the Pistons are normal-bad now instead of historically bad — despite being robbed by an egregious referee error against the New York Knicks on Monday. They are 7-20 since losing 28 straight games. Tune out all the noise about losing streaks, awful calls, Monty Williams’ coaching, Detroit’s wayward path since Tom Gores purchased the team — it’s hard, I know — and the most important thing happening right now is Cade Cunningham catching a rhythm.
In his past 11 games, Cunningham has averaged 21.5 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.6 rebounds on solid shooting — 50% overall and 45% on 3s. For the season, he’s up to 46% overall and 36% on 3s — respectable, considering Detroit still surrounds Cunningham with way below-average spacing.
Critics went out on Cunningham way too early. This is basically his second season — he played 12 games last year — and he has had to adapt as a lead playmaker in about the worst context possible. Critics were right that Cunningham needs to shoot better from everywhere — his finishing at the rim is more dire than his so-so 3-pointer — and get to the line more, but he deserved more patience ironing out those things.
Maybe that is happening now. Maybe this is a blip and a backslide is coming. Sustaining top-level play is the final frontier. Cunningham is unlikely to become an annual first- or second-team All-NBA superstar, but I’d still bet on his combination of size and playmaking. This version of Cunningham is headed toward multiple All-Star appearances.
Where that leaves the scattershot Jaden Ivey is unclear, but there’s one place I know I’d love to see him: running second units when Cunningham rests. Detroit’s current five-man bench mob is hopeless. Williams should stagger minutes so Ivey helms those groups.
There is some (strained) logic to maximizing the shared Cunningham-Ivey minutes; Detroit envisioned them as its backcourt of the future, and wants to see how they mesh. But the Pistons can do that and still let Ivey cook with reserve groups.
Ivey is hunting spots to attack off the ball alongside Cunningham, but the fit is wonky. Defenders sag away from Ivey even though he’s up to 37% on 3s. He’s a minus on defense, though improving.
when passing across the court
Look both ways before trying any crosscourt pass when Suggs is around, because … watch out!
Yoink! That is an NBA pick-six from a guy who was once an elite football player. Suggs averages 1.4 steals while almost never gambling his way out of position. And even when he bets and loses, he’s nimble enough changing directions — and dangerous enough as a rearview shot-blocker — to stay engaged:
Suggs is one of the league’s most well-rounded defensive guards, with the speed to chase waterbug point guards and the heft to jostle with big wings. He is a cinder block with arms and very fast feet. The Magic’s defense is built to last; they have held steady at No. 5 in points allowed per possession. They are physical, versatile, ultracompetitive, protective of the glass.
Suggs is also up to 39% on 3s after hitting just 32.7% last season and barely making any as a rookie. He has already made more 3s this season (113) than the 108 he hit combined in his first two. He’s taking more — 7.1 per 36 minutes, up from 5.8 last season. Suggs is even 28-of-73 (38%) on off-the-bounce 3s, already surpassing his career high in makes.
Marcus Smart — a common Suggs comp — has never hit better than 36.4% on 3s in any season and has only exceeded Suggs’s current attempt rate twice.
Defenses will remain skeptical until Suggs proves it over a larger sample; they still ignore him on the perimeter to clog the lane on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. That will change if Suggs keeps punishing them.
The Magic are 29th in 3-point attempts and 25th in 3-point shooting percentage. Their shooting deficit is the main reason they are on pace to finish 20th or worse in offensive efficiency for the 12th straight season — a baffling streak of punchlessness that has become one of my favorite oddities.
One of the biggest crossroads facing any team is Orlando’s appetite to acquire a star guard who can both shoot and run some portion of the offense. Markelle Fultz doesn’t appear to be happening. Anthony Black is barely 20, far away as a shooter. (He is a fantastic defender.) Cole Anthony appears to be in the right place as a sixth man. Gary Harris’ contract expires after this season. Jett Howard has played 49 NBA minutes.
Suggs might end up checking the shooting box, but he has not grown as much as an orchestrator. He runs only 12 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, very low for a starting guard. The Magic have scored only 0.85 points per possession directly out of those plays — 172nd out of 196 guys who have run at least 100 pick-and-rolls, per Second Spectrum.
But Orlando runs a lot of offense through Banchero and Wagner, and they probably would like to keep it that way. Plopping, say, Trae Young into this mix amounts to an overhaul. Is there an in-between solution — a starting-level guard who can shoot, defend, pass and soak up some offense but not so much as to reorient everything? That’s a tough needle to thread.
If the Magic can’t find that player, is the only solution to wait and hope?
. The Heat are 9-3 in their past 12 games despite injuries to … just about everyone. They are eighth in the East with a cake remaining schedule. They are deep enough that they might face tough decisions about which three players should start — among Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Caleb Martin, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Duncan Robinson — around Jimmy Butler and Adebayo. Exactly zero teams would be excited to face Miami in the playoffs.
Adebayo is tireless. His defense never waivers, and his versatility gives Miami access to all kinds of schemes — whatever it takes to gut through one game. Adebayo has stepped up his offense after a mini-slump in late January, and the Heat have needed every point. Miami is 20th in points per possession overall, and a blah 17th even during this 9-3 stretch. Its defense will always be there. The Heat’s ability to scrounge enough points will determine their ceiling.
Adebayo has worked hard on finishing lefty, and that work is starting to pay off.
Adebayo is aggressive hunting deep post position against smaller players, and has developed a nice touch on that lefty hook.
But this … this was a “whoa” moment:
(Check out Kevin Love’s reaction on the bench.)
going baseline, drifts behind the backboard and reaches out that left hand for a soft running floater. Gorgeous.
7. The many theories of what happened to Jordan Poole
There isn’t much point in belaboring how bad Poole has been with the Washington Wizards. Every game seems to bring a new meme. This is something beyond a normal single-season decline. The Wizards and Poole need to find the root causes and figure out how to rehabilitate Poole’s game (and his contract).
Everyone will point to the punch as the pivot point when Poole shifted from a player who helped the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals to whatever this is — and that was a traumatic moment. But every time this happens, my memory flashes back to a Warriors game in Miami about a month after the punch:
That palming violation capped a gruesome three-minute stretch for Poole that began literally the second he entered the game with Tyus Jones inbounding from the baseline. Jones passed to Poole, who caught the ball with his foot on the sideline. No time had elapsed, and Poole had already committed a turnover. In the next two minutes, he missed a jitterbug off-the-bounce 3 — the crowd groaning as Poole bobbed and weaved with the ball — and air-balled an open corner triple. Then came this carrying call.
The day the NBA decided to crack down on carrying early last season, referees whistled Poole for three violations in Golden State’s Nov. 1 loss to the Heat. Golden State coach Steve Kerr defended Poole, arguing that lots of players technically carry the ball.
Poole’s handle had always been funky — his hands drifting to the underside of the ball as he dangles it in midair before bolting into a crossover. Sometimes the violations are obvious — as in the above call. Sometimes they are blurrier; Poole still uses lots of the same moves, and referees don’t appear to be as hawkish enforcing the palming rule this season.
But I’ve always wondered how much becoming the poster player for the carrying crackdown got into Poole’s head.
Poole has three years and $95 million remaining on his contract after this season. It is in the running for “worst” contract in the NBA. Washington acquired a top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick from Golden State for absorbing Poole in exchange for Chris Paul (plus a second-round pick and cash), so Poole’s deal was already treated as a net negative last summer.
rituals
One of the joys of investing everything in one league or one team is getting to know and love every player’s little quirks. As a (lapsed) die-hard New York Mets fan, I can still visualize Mike Piazza’s underhanded half-swings as he geared up for the next pitch and the way John Olerud would palm the face of his batting helmet to remove it between pitches.
In that vein, I love that Isaac Okoro is still trying to make this “X” gesture happen after mano-a-mano stops:
I unironically love this. It’s something a pro wrestler would do before executing his finishing move.
Okoro can gesticulate however he likes, because his defense exceeds the hype. Okoro is among the very best one-on-one defenders in the league. If he were starting and playing more he would have a strong case for one of the All-Defensive teams.
As is, Okoro still guards the best opposing perimeter player. He is shooting a career-best 39% from deep, and letting fly with more confidence. Okoro still passes up some open looks, but he’s taking more of the wide-open ones and he’s explosive enough to roast soft closeouts on less-open potential 3s. There is a healthier balance to his shoot-or-drive choices. Okoro remains a blur in transition.
This Okoro is reliable enough to close games if the score and matchups dictate it. It’s still a bad idea to play him long stretches alongside both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, but Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff has been sitting one of those bigs late in close games. That opens the door to some crunch-time Okoro minutes. (Caris LeVert and Max Strus factor into that equation, too.)
If Cleveland ever draws an elite wing player in a postseason matchup — say, Tatum or Butler — it will need to figure out how to divvy up that defensive assignment. That is a tough question for a team built around two bigs and two small guards.
Okoro might be their best answer, though he’s a tad undersized at 6-foot-5. The Cavs usually give Strus first dibs; he’s smart and rugged, but guarding an apex wing full time is a tough ask. The Cavs can invert matchups so Mobley guards those wings — with Strus sliding to a less-threatening power forward — but that gets tricker if Bickerstaff staggers Mobley and Allen.
The Cavs are really good, and given health issues with the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers — and the Milwaukee Bucks’ up-and-down play — the East is a little more open than expected after Boston. (The Bucks are trending the right way.)
Another niche Cavs eccentricity: the high leg kicks Georges Niang busts out upon entering games for the first time. (Watch him in the left corner during this inbounds play):
Look at that technique! This man could fit in a 1980s aerobics video.
