The All-Star break has come and gone, and every team but the Charlotte Hornets has played 50-plus games this season. We’ve seen plenty of trends develop in the first half of the season that have become quite profitable for bettors.
I want to lay out a handful trends from the first half of the season that caught my eye and let you know whether this is something to keep betting into down the homestretch of the regular season.
Boston Celtics First-Half Spread (39-15-1 ATS) — KEEP BETTING ON
Boston has the best record in the league by four games over the Minnesota Timberwolves. It has the best net differential in the NBA (+10.1). The Celtics have won 26 of their 29 home games. Despite this dominance, they are just 25-27-3 ATS this season. It’s abundantly clear what is happening here. They are smashing teams early in the game and calling off the dogs late, allowing opponents to back-door the cover. I don’t expect this trend to stop. Keep betting Boston to cover the first half of games.
Utah Jazz at Home (18-9 ATS) — STOP BETTING ON
The Jazz have been an easy team to handicap this year. Bet on them at home. Bet against them on the road. Utah, after all, has one of the better home-court advantages in the league thanks to its crowd and the elevation. That has led to that sterling ATS record and an NBA-best +6.1 cover margin at home. However, most of this record was built on a roster the Jazz no longer have. The trade deadline signaled this team waving the white flag and focusing on the future. The Jazz are 0-3 since the deadline, and two of those losses came in Salt Lake City, by an average of 19 points, to the Warriors and Lakers.
Utah Jazz on the Road (12-16-1 ATS) — KEEP BETTING AGAINST
On the other hand, I see no reason to stop betting against this team when the Jazz are on the road. While their cover margin at home has ranked first in the league this season, their cover margin of -5.3 away from home ranks dead last in the NBA. Keep betting against Utah covering games on the road.
Milwaukee Bucks as Underdogs (1-5 ATS) — KEEP BETTING AGAINST
Whether it’s been Adrian Griffin or Doc Rivers, the Bucks have struggled this season, especially in the underdog role. For this team, which still has the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals, to be an underdog in a regular-season game, it likely is playing other elite competition or Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. Milwaukee has been an underdog six times this season, and Giannis missed only one of those games. The Bucks haven’t won a single one. This team has struggled big-time against the league’s best competition this season, and I don’t think that’s going to change. Milwaukee is 3-7 since Doc took over and hasn’t covered any of the four games it has played with him on the sideline as an underdog. Keep betting against the Bucks as underdogs.
Cleveland Cavaliers with the Rest Advantage (10-2 ATS) — KEEP BETTING ON
The Cavs have surged to the second-best record in the Eastern Conference thanks to wins in 18 of their last 20 entering the All-Star break. A big chunk of that stretch was played without the team being at full health. Darius Garland has missed 24 games, and Evan Mobley has missed 23 games. Cleveland still has a dominant defense ranked second in the NBA in defensive rating and an alpha closer in Donovan Mitchell. This team is legit. Keep betting on the Cavs to cover when they’re better rested than their opponent.
Oklahoma City Thunder with the Rest Disadvantage (11-3 ATS) — KEEP BETTING ON
The Thunder have been a good bet no matter the situation this season. They’re 34-20 ATS this year, good for second-best in the league behind only the Orlando Magic. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+225) is the biggest threat in the NBA to Nikola Jokic (-125) winning his third MVP trophy. SGA is flanked by “rookie” Chet Holmgren, who would run away with ROTY in almost any other season, and a certified young star many probably don’t know in Jalen Williams. It legitimately seems as if they’ve somehow come close to replicating the KD/Russ/Harden trio that helped this team to an NBA Finals appearance back in 2012. Because of their youthful exuberance and energy, I’d say it’s a good idea to keep betting on the Thunder when they’re at a rest disadvantage.
