NBA midseason grades: Who is ahead of the curve and who needs extra work

The NBA recently passed its midway point of the regular season, with every team having played at least 41 of their 82 games. As the Feb. 8 trade deadline and All-Star break approach, it’s a good time to take stock of how teams have performed relative to expectations entering the season and which ones need to course-correct.

Broadly speaking, a C grade reflects a performance meeting expectations, as evaluated by win-loss record and underlying metrics, including point differential, that are more predictive of how the rest of the season will go. I also considered factors like player development and how teams are set up for postseason success.

The Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers are the three teams exceeding expectations — earning an A grade.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Pistons’ record 28-game losing streak earned them the only F. Let’s mark in the grades for the other teams in between those extremes.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Grade: A

It’s telling of Minnesota’s sad history that the Timberwolves have already beaten their final win total in four of the past 10 seasons, and will soon top their 31 wins in 2016-17. Going back deeper, Minnesota has had home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs just twice in franchise history, making the battle for the top spot in the West all the more competitive. Credit Chris Finch and his players for making the Rudy Gobert-Karl-Anthony Towns pairing work after limited playing time together last season.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Grade: A

I wrote earlier this week about how much the Thunder are exceeding expectations with one of the West’s top records, and even more so with the NBA’s third-best point differential. The most exciting part is Oklahoma City’s leap has entirely been about the development of young players who likely form the core of a championship contender for years to come.

Philadelphia 76ers
Grade: A

Unlike the Thunder and Wolves, the Sixers are in a similar spot in the standings as last year. That may come as a surprise because of the drama surrounding Philadelphia last summer after James Harden’s trade request. The 76ers skillfully navigated his absence, and eventual trade to the LA Clippers, with point guard Tyrese Maxey stepping into Harden’s role as lead ball handler and first-year coach Nick Nurse integrating the newcomers added in return. Add another MVP-caliber season from Joel Embiid and Philadelphia is poised for a deep playoff run with the flexibility to add to the roster via trade or cap space next summer.

Boston Celtics
Grade: A-

The Celtics, who boast the NBA’s best record and point differential, only fall short of a full A because expectations were already so high entering the season that it’s difficult to exceed them. We knew how strong the Celtics’ starting five would be after adding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, but the strong play of reserves Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard has been an encouraging development.

Houston Rockets
Grade: A-

Houston’s transition to “phase two” of the rebuild that started when Harden was traded a little over three years ago has gone faster than expected. New coach Ime Udoka and veteran perimeter players Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, who were added to the roster this summer, have transformed the Rockets’ defensive culture, while young frontcourt starters Alperen Sengun, who has emerged as an All-Star candidate, and Jabari Smith Jr. have taken key steps forward. One quibble: 2021 No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green hasn’t made the progress Houston had hoped.

LA Clippers
Grade: A-

The Harden trade has worked well for the Clippers as well. After a bumpy beginning with Russell Westbrook in the starting lineup alongside Harden, the Clippers quickly found their stride and have the league’s best record (25-7) and fifth-best point differential (plus-7.3 PPG) since Nov. 15. For the first time since Kawhi Leonard’s 2021 ACL injury, the Clippers look like legitimate championship contenders.

Denver Nuggets
Grade: B+

The defending champs haven’t exactly had a title hangover, but they also haven’t been as motivated to chase regular-season wins as the inexperienced teams in the West standings. With Jamal Murray in the lineup, Denver is playing at a 61-win pace, though it would be nice to see a bit more dominance in terms of point differential. The Nuggets rank seventh in that category, albeit still ahead of last season’s plus-3.3 mark.

Indiana Pacers
Grade: B+

A run to the in-season tournament final was the highlight of the first half of the season that saw the Pacers emerge as a likely playoff team after two years in the lottery. All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton leads one of the NBA’s most fun teams to watch, combining the most efficient offense in NBA history with a fast pace of play. Indiana will have to improve on defense to have a chance at a deep playoff run, but even considering that possibility is a win for the Pacers.

New Orleans Pelicans
Grade: B+

Since getting soundly beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers in the semifinals of the in-season tournament, the Pelicans have played as well as anyone over the past month and a half, going 14-7 with a league-leading plus-11.2 point differential. New Orleans might not have any player make the All-Star Game, but it can boast a rotation so deep that quality reserve Jose Alvarado has been squeezed out in recent weeks by the development of rookie Jordan Hawkins.

Orlando Magic
Grade: B+

One of the NBA’s best stories in the season’s first month and a half, the Magic have gone just 7-14 since peaking at 16-7 on Dec. 11. Despite that downturn, Orlando is still in play-in position with a chance to return to the playoffs, and with the NBA’s third-youngest roster in terms of age weighted by minutes played.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Grade: B

The Cavaliers’ grade is more like an average of two different seasons. At 13-12, Cleveland was underperforming expectations when All-Star guard Darius Garland joined fellow starter Evan Mobley on the sidelines due to injury. Without them, the Cavaliers have discovered a style of play that’s heavy on 3-pointers and has unlocked All-Star center Jarrett Allen, which not only helped them stay afloat during Garland and Mobley’s absence, but boosted them up the Eastern standings. The past month-plus has been an A for Cleveland.

New York Knicks
Grade: B

Like the Dude’s rug in “The Big Lebowski,” adding OG Anunoby seems to have tied things together for the Knicks, who have gone 10-2 since adding him to the lineup. New York is battling for home-court advantage in the first round and boasts the third-best point differential in the East, an overall step forward from fifth last season.

Sacramento Kings
Grade: B

Only by the standards of last season’s unexpected run could Sacramento potentially sliding into the play-in tournament feel underwhelming. Despite the Kings playing at nearly the same pace in terms of wins, the environment around them has changed, with four Western Conference teams on track for at least 54 wins. That’s left Sacramento battling to stay in the top six rather than in position for home-court advantage in the first round.

Utah Jazz
Grade: B

Through the season’s first month and a half, the Jazz were 7-16 with a minus-9.0 differential that ranked 27th in the league. Then everything unexpectedly clicked for Utah, going 15-7 with a plus-5.1 differential since, emerging in the play-in race. The Jazz have to be thrilled with the development of guard Collin Sexton and forward Simone Fontecchio into reliable starters.

Dallas Mavericks
Grade: B-

After a strong start as the West’s last unbeaten team, the Mavericks haven’t been able to keep pace with the conference’s upper echelon, sliding back into a play-in spot with an offense that ranks just ninth per-possession despite the production of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Just making the playoffs would still be a step forward after last season ended in the lottery where they landed Dereck Lively II, who looks like a cornerstone.

Phoenix Suns
Grade: B-

After middling around .500 due to injuries over the season’s first two months, the Suns have been as good as they hoped since getting Bradley Beal back in the lineup. A recent winning streak has vaulted Phoenix into a top-six spot in the West, and while the top four teams will be hard to catch, the Suns have a realistic hope of getting there. At the same time, a promising class of minimum-salary free agents signed this summer has yet to yield results aside from proven veteran Eric Gordon.

Miami Heat
Grade: C

The good news is Miami’s playoff run might not have to go through the play-in tournament. Climbing any higher in the East standings than sixth will be a challenge, however, even after the Heat added guard Terry Rozier via trade earlier this week. Miami’s season will ultimately be graded in the playoffs, where overachieving has typically come in the Jimmy Butler era.

Milwaukee Bucks
Grade: C

If a C grade sounds harsh for a team battling for second in the East, the Bucks certainly rendered their verdict by firing coach Adrian Griffin 43 games into his tenure and replacing him with Doc Rivers. Milwaukee’s underlying metrics were far worse, including a plus-4.1 differential that ranked fifth in the East, and a bottom-10 defensive rating that was still disappointing despite replacing defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday with Damian Lillard. We’ll see whether Rivers can get more out of this group, something he’s typically done in the regular season before a series of playoff flameouts.

Chicago Bulls
Grade: C-

Chicago is all but assured another trip to the play-in tournament due to the inept bottom of the East standings, but the Bulls don’t look capable of making postseason noise. At 21-24, they boast the exact same record at this point as last season, but with a roster that’s another year older. Having explored the trade market for Zach LaVine, Chicago should consider trading DeMar DeRozan in the final year of his contract as well as standout role player Alex Caruso, whose trade value is likely at its peak.

Los Angeles Lakers
Grade: C-

The Lakers are on track to becoming an unlikely poster child for how a middling team can get hot and win the in-season tournament. How the Lakers played in their 7-0 IST run was out of line with their other games through that point of the season, which has been proven more predictive as the Lakers have fallen below .500 and into a battle just to make the play-in.

Memphis Grizzlies
Grade: C-

On some level, a grade of “incomplete” feels more fair given the way injuries have hit Memphis. Through last Thursday, players had missed a combined 197 games due to injury or illness, 30 more than any other team — which doesn’t even count the 25 games Ja Morant was suspended by the league before shoulder surgery cut short his return. However, those absences have also exposed recent Memphis first-round picks Jake LaRavia, David Roddy and Ziaire Williams, who have been unable to contribute when the Grizzlies badly needed them.

Portland Trail Blazers
Grade: C-

In their first season post-Lillard, the Blazers have alternated periods of competitive play with stretches where they look overmatched, including a 62-point loss at Oklahoma City. The biggest long-term factor will be the development of No. 3 pick Scoot Henderson, who has made progress after a difficult start to the season but must dramatically improve his efficiency as a scorer.

Toronto Raptors
Grade: C-

The Raptors hoped (and my stats-based projections agreed) that a full season with Jakob Poeltl could get them back in the playoffs. Instead, Toronto was off to a 12-19 start when the front office traded OG Anunoby, and more recently Pascal Siakam, before they became unrestricted free agents. Down the road, those trades and the development of Scottie Barnes could pay off for the Raptors more than a brief postseason run.

Washington Wizards
Grade: C-

We all knew the Wizards, who had the lowest over/under win total entering the season (24.5), would be bad after trading Beal and Porzingis. Not only is Washington on pace to fall well short of that mark, Jordan Poole’s poor season has scuttled any hope the Wizards might be able to revive his trade value outside of Golden State.

Brooklyn Nets
Grade: D+

The bottom fell out in a hurry for the Nets, who were 13-10 through Dec. 13 and battling for a top-six spot in the East playoffs. Since then, Brooklyn has the league’s third-worst record at 4-16. Mikal Bridges has looked overburdened in the role of go-to scorer, and the Nets have been below average on defense. Brooklyn won’t get the benefit of a likely lottery pick because the Rockets own their unprotected first-round pick from the Harden trade.

San Antonio Spurs
Grade: D+

A 3-2 preseason offered some hope that No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama would help the Spurs compete for the play-in tournament as a rookie. Instead, San Antonio suffered through an 18-game losing streak with Jeremy Sochan out of position at point guard and Tre Jones on the bench. The good news? Lately, the Spurs have looked better with Jones starting and Wembanyama playing at center. The No. 1 pick is well on his way to NBA superstardom.

Atlanta Hawks
Grade: D

Remember last season, when the frustration about the Hawks was their inability to escape .500? Those seem like glory days by comparison to Atlanta falling to 10th in the East with a point differential better than only the conference’s dregs. Injuries at forward have exposed the Hawks’ lacking depth, while the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray combo hasn’t worked. That will likely result in Atlanta trading Murray before the deadline for far less value than it cost to acquire him 18 months ago.

Charlotte Hornets
Grade: D

Remarkably, the Hornets have the NBA’s worst point differential at minus-11.1 PPG. Part of that can be attributed to the absence of star point guard LaMelo Ball due to injury, but expectations were high with the return of Miles Bridges. The Hornets’ recent draft misses have left them thin on the wing, but this awful run has convinced the organization to tear off the Band-Aid with the Rozier trade and begin rebuilding around Ball and No. 2 pick Brandon Miller.

Golden State Warriors
Grade: D