India’s AFC Asian Cup exit a story of long-term planning and short term what-ifs

In the end, it was a bridge too far for India. The decisive moments that Igor Stimac had pointed out as India’s biggest flaw ahead of this game, came to haunt his side once more. Two lost duels in the build up to Omar Khribin’s wonderfully taken goal, and India’s hopes of staying in the AFC Asian Cup evaporated in the 76th minute. Another defeat, another group stage exit, another spell of what-ifs.

On paper, this was a worse campaign than the 2019 edition. India’s 2023 vintage were worse off by one win, three fewer points, four fewer goals scored, and two more goals conceded. That was enough to earn Stephen Constantine the sack in 2019, and questions about Stimac’s future will naturally arise (despite his deal running through to 2026).

Yet, as India held their own against Syria – with Subhasish Bose a rock in defence and India even threatening to score early on — Naorem Mahesh Singh forcing a save and Manvir Singh spurning a chance to send Sunil Chhetri clear in a 2-on-1 counter — it’s pertinent to remember that there has been progress made under Stimac. For 75 minutes, India were with a legitimate shot of progressing to the knockouts of the AFC Asian Cup for the first time in their history (the 1964 edition where India finished runners-up was a round-robin contest between four teams).

That shot at progression came against Australia (World Cup regulars), Uzbekistan and Syria (both of whom frequently go deep in World Cup qualifiers and are teams on the rise). The trio of UAE, Bahrain, and Thailand that India faced in 2019 do not compare – with Bahrain and Thailand conceivably poorer footballing teams than Syria. Zero points in this group isn’t the disaster it purports to be.

This tournament will remain a tournament of what-ifs though – What if Chhetri had scored that header against Australia? What if Mahesh or Manvir had been more decisive in their early chances against Syria? What if India’s defence had been faster to the second balls against Uzbekistan? What if Sandesh Jhingan had been on the pitch to perhaps block Khribin’s winner, instead of Rahul Bheke?

Any one of those what-ifs could have become reality and India’s fate would have been different, knockout progression achieved. Stimac would be lauded as one of India’s best-ever managers and this group of players as one of India’s best ever teams. The cold, hard reality that will face this squad though is that they are on a run of five losses in the AFC Asian Cup – India’s worst-ever run in their history.

Tournaments such as these only underline the task that faces Indian football – the decisive moments are a millisecond on the pitch, but to get there you need years of effort, a whole system working in sync to produce excellence on the pitch. Khribin’s beautiful touch to wrong-foot Bheke and his precise finish past Gurpreet Singh Sandhu doesn’t arise out of ether, it arises because he was educated as a 10-year-old in Damascus, who stayed at the same club for 13 years, going on to become Asian Footballer of the Year in 2017.

Only when India can improve their domestic setup can they produce players decisive in the milliseconds – Chhetri a rare exception to the rule. Even if Stimac relied on another what-if – that Ashique Kuruniyan, Anwar Ali and Jeakson Singh had been fit – the decisive moments would still have evaded India. There are more years of development in store, for India’s pool of talented players to progress further – but only if the Indian Super League goes up a level in terms of player quality.