Predicting 11 NBA breakout players for the 2024-25 season

It’s that time of year again: NBA training camps are in full swing, the league is buzzing with two weeks before the 2024-25 season tips off, and the long-held task of predicting breakout players is upon us.

While it’s impossible to know how these things will play out, what we can do is assess the evidence: Every player on this list is walking into a friendly environment for their own development, and has the capacity to grow into a bigger role, expand their own ability, and most importantly, impact the present and future arc of their respective franchises.

I broke this list out into tiers: players who are on the cusp of All-Star performance (such as the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley), potential star breakouts who happen to share a first name (think the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Jalen Williams), young players entering friendly situations (someone say Chicago Bulls’ Josh Giddey?), and role players who will make greater impacts (such as the Phoenix Suns’ Tyus Jones).

It’s not all-encompassing, but these are the 11 players who I’m most interested to watch over the next several months and could be breakouts in 2024-25.

Almost All-Stars | Bigger roles incoming
Role players who could make greater impacts

Tier 1: Potential All-Star leaps

The pieces are in place for these two players to break through as full-fledged stars.

Evan Mobley,
Cleveland Cavaliers

New Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson spent the summer as an assistant of the French national team, leading France to a silver medal after the team lost to Team USA in the Paris Olympics.

He returned to Cleveland, comparing the San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama and the Cavaliers’ Mobley.

“These guys can do so many things,” Atkinson told reporters at Cleveland’s media day last week. “They’re so talented and similar because they’re so talented defensively, so you’ve got that piece. And how do they fit with this kind of new [NBA] game?”

While Wembanyama’s extraplanar talent makes him a difficult point of direct comparison for most any NBA player, Atkinson’s line of thinking around a skilled 7-footer points toward the offensive growth the Cavs are actively working to pull out of Mobley in his fourth season. Mobley, 23, agreed to a five-year, $224 maximum rookie contract extension in July.

He has always shown it in flashes: He’s a solid decision-maker, underrated passer and is efficient playing in the paint. But he can also be too unselfish at times, and it has taken time for him to pack on the requisite strength on his narrow frame to better attack opponents and handle the physical rigor of the NBA game.

Last season, the Cavaliers won 48 games, earned the No. 4 seed in the East and made it to the conference semifinals for the first time in the post-LeBron James era, despite Mobley, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland logging less than 57 games. Beyond the need for better collective health, there’s room for Cleveland to build behind their star trio. The Cavs’ front office was encouraged enough to double down: other than hiring Atkinson, they returned the team’s entire rotation, despite trade rumors surrounding Garland in the spring.

Cleveland’s emphasis under Atkinson, who is best known for offensive freedom and ball movement principles, will be unlocking the roster’s talent. The Cavs expect better spacing and improved staggering of minutes between Mobley and starting five-man Jarrett Allen. There’s also a concerted push to get Mobley the ball and enable him to create mismatches, make plays, and be a bigger force within Cleveland’s offense.

Like most 7-footers with legitimate ball skills and feel, the unicorn label was slapped on Mobley at an early age, but he entered the NBA as a special defensive prospect first and foremost, making the NBA All-Defensive team in his second season (2022-23). His offensive game, while efficient, remains a work in progress, with nightly flashes of face-up skill and a methodical post game — but promising enough to shift the conversation around Cleveland’s ceiling.

Mobley is naturally unselfish and oriented toward making plays for teammates, which has made his progression more of a slow burn to this point. In theory, Mobley-as-offensive-fulcrum opens things up for everyone, enabling the Cavs to play inside-out and making Garland and Mitchell more dangerous in two-man situations.

Any strides he can make from 3-point range would serve to make the fit less clunky with Allen, but the Cavs won’t force him to take more until he’s comfortable. You might see him grab-and-go in transition more often, and there should be a more concerted effort to play through him early and often, maximizing his ability to play as a conduit for others.

If Mobley can take the next step, the Cavs might be able to take it with him.

Franz Wagner,
Orlando Magic

The Magic won 47 games last season and sit on the cusp of Eastern Conference contention — following offseason roster tweaks, the hope is Orlando can maintain an elite defense while taking a leap on the offensive side. Much of that responsibility falls on young stars Paolo Banchero and Wagner, the former having already made the All-Star team at age 21, and the latter staring down a realistic pathway to stardom, one which begins and ends with his improvement as a long-range shooter.

Wagner, 23, has been an efficient scorer in spite of being unreliable from long distance — he’s a career 47.9% from the field in three seasons and 85% from the foul stripe, but has made just 33% of his 3s, posting a career-worst 28% last season. He puts pressure on the paint as an inventive downhill driver, he can make plays for teammates and also brings value on the defensive end. Not many 6-foot-10 guys can do all of that. Wagner signed a five-year rookie max extension in the offseason, and the Magic are banking on him making that leap.

Conventional thought would look at Wagner’s free throw percentages and mark it as an indicator of eventual 3-point success. It’s not realistic to expect a full 3-point metamorphosis from Wagner, but some positive regression (he shot 35% and 36% his first two seasons) and a better offensive environment around him could spike his offensive production in a meaningful way.

While Orlando will bring back most of the same faces, two key changes should improve their spacing around Wagner and Banchero: The Magic signed reliable Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to sponge up crucial wing minutes, and also moved on from a negative shooter in Markelle Fultz. It’s reasonable to think the situational changes will break in Wagner’s favor, giving him more room to operate and create mismatches as a focal point of the offense.

Wagner is coming off a positive summer with the German national team at the Olympics, where he was asked to carry a large offensive load and that experience should pay dividends.

He’s a logical candidate to take a big step forward in Year 4 and beyond.

,
Houston Rockets

There’s some common thought around the league that the Rockets are primed to take a step forward this season. Houston has collected an enviable amount of talent over the past handful of drafts. The funny thing about these newfound expectations is that there is also a level of uncertainty around which of Houston’s young players will make the leap next.

Alperen Sengun’s production is already there. Amen Thompson is one of the league’s most exciting prospects. Jabari Smith, Cam Whitmore and Tari Eason haven’t played their best basketball yet, and Reed Sheppard is coming up in early NBA Rookie of the Year talk. It’s unclear how coach Ime Udoka will rotate these guys. Some of them will pop, but inevitably, someone will have to take a back seat.

After Green’s scorching close to the 2023-24 season, he’s the Rockets player I’m personally most curious about. At surface level, his first three seasons haven’t shown much statistical progression, underscored by streaky offensive play.

Green averaged 27 points per game on 49% shooting in March, playing the best basketball of his career, some of that occurring with Sengun missing time, but impressive nonetheless. Although Green hasn’t been a banner of efficiency to this point in his three-year pro career, with shot selection and consistency two things that have challenged him, it did feel like things are clicking.

He has always been an electric driver who can make difficult things look easy, but learning to pick his spots and finding consistency has been a slow roll. Perimeter players in Green’s mold — hyper-athletic scorers who have to learn to slow things down at the NBA level (think Zach LaVine) — tend to take time. Houston has a lot of mouths to feed, but if Green can build on last season’s progress, he should be in for his best season yet.

Green, 22, will be entering a contract year if he and the Rockets don’t agree to an extension before Oct. 21. The Rockets have a lot to sort out, but if Green, who has the shot-creation chops and scoring talent, can put together his most complete season yet, he could be the one who carries them most often.

Jalen Johnson,
Atlanta Hawks

It wasn’t a banner year for the Hawks (36-46), however, it became evident that Johnson, who started 52 games before a bad ankle sprain cut his coming-out party short, was ready to handle a larger role.

His across-the-board production, providing versatility and positional size at forward, has already made him a unique contributor. And while it’s fair to say Johnson had largely underachieved relative to his actual talent level, he certainly began to dispel that talk with his 16 points per game last season.

Atlanta will be relying on him to put together a complete season in 2024-25, and he remains eligible for a rookie-scale extension until Oct. 21.

The Hawks remain in a degree of flux as they try to get the pieces right around Trae Young, with No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher added to the mix along with recent lottery pick Dyson Daniels, who was acquired from the New Orleans Pelicans as the key piece of the Dejounte Murray trade. Atlanta has been trying to build a bigger, more versatile roster, capable of providing defensive backbone behind Young and, ideally, become dynamic enough to not have to run everything through Young all the time.

Johnson looks like the player most ready to emerge as the No. 2 guy. He’s capable of raising Atlanta’s ceiling on both sides of the ball. Johnson and Young are natural complements from a skill perspective: Johnson plays effectively in transition, can finish powerfully at the rim, has begun to knock down jumpers with more consistency, and brings defensive versatility at his size, capable of playing both forward spots and allowing for creative usage on both ends.

He has always had terrific passing instincts, particularly at his size, making him a dangerous roller who can attack mismatches and find teammates. Atlanta doesn’t have a ton of shot creation on the roster outside of Young, but someone will have to pick up that slack.

Johnson has shown he can turn in quality production, but the more the Hawks are able to play through him, utilizing the breadth of his offensive game, the better their chances of returning to playoff territory.

Jalen Williams,
Oklahoma City Thunder

Suffice it to say the Thunder upgraded defensively by trading Josh Giddey (more on him in a second) to Chicago for Alex Caruso. The less obvious subtext of that deal, and perhaps the more important long-term implication, is what it meant for the 23-year-old Williams, whose first two NBA seasons have more than warranted a bigger developmental runway.

Giddey’s shooting struggles necessitated that he handle the ball more often than not for optimal results. Williams’ comfort level playing both on and away from it meshes more effectively as a complement to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Williams is an experienced pick-and-roll navigator, dating back to his time at Santa Clara — he rated in the 84th percentile across 507 possessions as a pick-and-roll handler last season, per Synergy data — and figures to be fed more opportunities, particularly when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor.

Some of his limitations were on display in Oklahoma City’s second-round playoff loss — he’s not a quick-twitch athlete, relies more on touch and craft to be effective, and is still honing his ability to create for himself. It’s in OKC’s best interest, both short and long-term, to let Williams gain playmaking experience and cut his teeth in a winning environment.

The Thunder would certainly like for him to be assertive — Williams is a well-rounded scorer who was successful in a range of contexts last season, due largely to his intuition and understanding of how to play off teammates, which made him a dynamic fit on a roster full of other smart players.

Oklahoma City has done an impressive job of drafting well and putting its younger players in positions to succeed. It’s unclear exactly where the ceiling is for Williams — whether he can be a legitimate All-Star candidate, or settles in as more of a top-flight complementary player — but it’s important the Thunder take the time to find out.

, with an excellent supporting cast flanking them.

Tier 3: Bigger roles incoming

These three players are set to take on bigger roles than they’ve had recently, and they’ll get a chance to show their worth, be it with their contracts or their on-court roles.

Josh Giddey,
Chicago Bulls

In an offseason mostly lacking for significant player movement because of changes to the collective bargaining agreement, Giddey is among the more obvious change-of-scenery beneficiaries; he will, in essence, have the keys to the Bulls’ operation.

The Bulls, who owe a top-10 protected pick to San Antonio in 2025, might not enter the season with lofty expectations (and might prefer to keep that draft pick if they can), but they will likely get a much better sense of what Giddey can do with a bigger playmaking workload. There’s plenty of perimeter scoring — Zach LaVine is still there and Coby White took a step forward last season — but Giddey was the prize return in the offseason deal for Alex Caruso and figures to be heavily featured. Lonzo Ball might be on his way back to the court, but suffice it to say, his health can’t be relied upon.

It’s probably in Chicago’s best long-term interest to keep their pick in what’s shaping up to be a strong 2025 draft — which means this could and should be a more experimental season. The Bulls needed a playmaker to help connect their parts, and while it might not necessarily manifest in the win column, Giddey will have an opportunity to become a cornerstone moving forward.

Giddey’s natural position is point guard, a position in which he has a size advantage (6-foot-8 and 210 pounds) and that maximizes his vision to make plays for teammates. If and when the Bulls put the ball in his hand, he’ll do that — and the word out of Chicago is that the Bulls want to play faster, which plays to Giddey’s strengths. The big question has always been how much Giddey’s average perimeter shooting can be mitigated if he is featured in the offense. The Bulls will want to understand exactly what they have as Giddey, who turns 21 on Oct. 10, enters the final year of his rookie contract.

Brandin Podziemski,
Golden State Warriors

Labeling him as a Klay Thompson replacement would be a misrepresentation of his skill set, but Podziemski is set to step into a bigger role in his second NBA season, whether it’s starting next to Stephen Curry or as one of the first names off the Warriors’ bench.

After making the NBA All-Rookie team last season, the Warriors have high hopes for Podziemski’s ability to handle secondary playmaking duties, knock down shots, and raise the level of the offense around him. There’s assuredly more volume and opportunity headed his way. For Golden State to get back to the playoffs, it will need him to up his efficiency across the board and tackle greater defensive responsibilities with Thompson gone.

It’s a lot to ask of a 21-year-old — for as long as Curry can carry the team at a high level, every Golden State season will have heightened stakes — but Podziemski has the makeup to handle it; he was regarded as one of the most competitive players in the 2023 draft class. The Warriors drafted him in the middle of the first round, hoping he would slide in comfortably on a veteran team. Those hopes have thus far been validated, and the way is clear for him to become a key contributor in Year 2.

Podziemski doesn’t have much of a physical advantage at the NBA level, but the 6-foot-5, 205-pound guard has been effective to this point. He plays with terrific pace, picking spots and thinking quickly in the flow of the game, traits that have fit well in a Curry-led offense. The Warriors spent the offseason tweaking their supporting cast but sorely need him to be a playmaker, particularly when Curry rests. Golden State added De’Anthony Melton and Buddy Hield for backcourt depth and will also need more from Jonathan Kuminga, who could wind up as the team’s second-leading scorer and could have warranted a spot in this column of his own.

The Warriors have lineup combinations to figure out, but it’s easy to see Podziemski’s fit with what they like to do earning him a major role. There’s a chance for him to become an every-night starter and a key part of Golden State’s efforts.

Cam Thomas,
Brooklyn Nets

There’s no ambiguity around the Nets’ direction this season: Brooklyn is going to be bad, angling for the long-term rebuild after reacquiring their own draft picks, then sending Mikal Bridges across the East River. And while it might be slightly unfair to call Thomas a breakout candidate, after a season in which he stepped in as a starter and averaged 22.5 points per game, there are two things we know to be true: (1) There will be shots to go around at the Barclays Center, and (2) There aren’t many shots Thomas isn’t willing to take.

The reason why Thomas fell to the 27th pick in the 2021 draft was less about whether he could score at an NBA level, and more about whether he could do it in a winning context — he’s not a good defender, doesn’t rebound much, and isn’t a gifted playmaker, but he can really, really score. His game has never been the most aesthetically pleasing, but he has shooting chops, instincts, and mentality that have helped him produce in spite of a subpar physical profile for an off-guard.

Oftentimes volume scorers on losing teams wind up taking the brunt of criticism. And all of this is to say the Nets presumably being a bad team doesn’t fall on Thomas’ shoulders. Still, there’s an opportunity for him to mature in his approach and reframe those narratives around his game.

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Sacramento Kings

Ellis’ ascent from undrafted find to legit NBA player was cemented last week, when he broke camp designated as Sacramento’s starting two-guard. While that might not be permanent, with Malik Monk set to come off the bench for now and Kevin Huerter still working his way back from injury, he’s the most defensive-minded option on a team that may benefit from staggering its various scorers.

An Alabama product who also played two years in junior college, Ellis has had to scrap for every opportunity in his two-year pro career, due largely to his lithe frame, smaller size as an off-guard, and lack of creative chops off the bounce. But the 6-5, 175-pound guard took full advantage of a late-season opportunity created by Huerter’s injury, offering the Kings some critical teeth on the defensive end and building his own confidence in the process.

Whether he starts all season, Ellis’ ability to fill in the blanks as a defender and spot-up shooter has become valuable to the Kings, particularly on a cheap contract that runs another season and in a lineup that now includes another offensive-minded wing in DeMar DeRozan. That he doesn’t need the ball much is a feature, not a bug.

With Domantas Sabonis at center, Sacramento will often be playing without a true rim protector, leaving it to guys such as Ellis, 24, to help win extra possessions and disrupt passing lanes. If he can continue to shoot respectably from range, the Kings will have a hard time keeping him off the floor.

Tyus Jones,
Phoenix Suns

The Suns’ Bradley Beal experiment sputtered in Year 1, but Jones, who signed a one-year, $3.3 million deal

He might be a much-needed salve for the Suns, with the sting of last season’s first-round playoff exit in the rearview and now a new coach in place, with Mike Budenholzer replacing Frank Vogel after one season.

Jones is a true point guard who directs traffic, takes care of the ball at an elite rate and shoots reliably from long range; Phoenix played without one for much of last season, struggled with turnovers, and didn’t take an optimal number of 3s for a team that features so many quality shooters.

There’s opportunity for the veteran guard to play distributor for Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Beal — it appears he’ll open the season as the starter, with Grayson Allen slated to come off the bench. On paper, Jones is what the Suns need, and it’s hard to argue with his value at the price point because whatever Phoenix can get from him could go a long way.

Terance Mann,
LA Clippers