The start to the 2024-25 NBA regular season is less than two months away with the defending champion Boston Celtics hosting the New York Knicks on opening night on Oct. 22.
But it is never too early to look ahead to the storylines that will dominate the 2025 offseason and what impact big moves could make on the upcoming season.
That includes the future of a superstar like LeBron James, the historic supermax deal awaiting Luka Doncic and which teams are best equipped to draft a potential future superstar in Duke forward Cooper Flagg.
Here are the top 10 questions that could define the summer of 2025.
Jump to a question:
Who could sign this season?What about LeBron and Steph?Top free agents in ’25?
A trend to watch?The Nets will make noise?Wemby AND Flagg?Celtics in peril?
Other teams in trouble?Luka, SGA on verge of big paydays?Rookie max deals?
, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Lauri Markkanen, Jarrett Allen and Jayson Tatum.
De’Aaron Fox is eligible now, while the next wave of players signing extensions could include Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant. That pair have two years left on their contracts and are eligible to extend for one season prior to the start of this season.
Other veterans who could sign extensions before or during this season include Jamal Murray, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., Aaron Gordon and T.J. McConnell.
Next offseason, the list of players eligible to extend includes: Nikola Jokic, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Damian Lillard, Mikal Bridges, Trae Young, Fred VanVleet, Kyrie Irving, Kristaps Porzingis and Draymond Green.
Several players are eligible to get rookie extensions after a record 14 former first-round picks signed such deals before the start of last season. With only Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, Franz Wagner and Evan Mobley from the 2021 draft class having agreed to extensions so far, expect more before the Oct. 21 deadline. Notable players eligible for rookie extensions include Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun.
contract with the Los Angeles Lakers in July and can become a free agent if he declines his $52.6 million player option in 2024-25.
James turns 40 on Dec. 30 and he knows the end of his illustrious pro career is coming to an end.
“Not very long,” James said in March on how long he sees himself playing. “Not very long. I’m on the other side, obviously, of the hill. So I’m not going to play another 21 years, that’s for damn sure. But not very long.”
James continues to defy father time. He was named All-NBA for a 20th straight year last season, played his most games since 2017-18 and shot a career high 41.6% on 3-pointers.
If James continues to play at an All-NBA level, will the Lakers’ success on the court (or perhaps the lack of) fuel what his next move will be?
After losing to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers hired JJ Redick as coach and will return 13 players. Their offseason additions only came from the draft — Dalton Knecht and Bronny James.
The Lakers are over the salary cap next offseason but will have the flexibility next summer to add in free agency or make a trade. Unlike this summer when they were pressed against the second apron, the Lakers are a projected $40 million below it next July.
And with Curry, could a second straight loss in the play-in tournament factor into his long-term future?
“I want to win,” Curry told Marc J. Spears of Andscape in July. “Let’s put it this way, it’s a long-winded way of saying that if it is a situation where you’re a bottom feeder and it’s just because you want to stay there, I’d have a hard time with that. But I don’t think that’s going to be the reality.”
The Golden State Warriors star won’t be a free agent next summer; he agreed Thursday to a one-year, $62.6 million extension
The Warriors won 46 games last season but underwent big changes this summer. Klay Thompson’s exit to the Dallas Mavericks marked the end of an era in the Bay, but the team added a trio of contributors in Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield and De’Anthony Melton.
Next offseason, they will have four tradable first-round picks. But the Warriors’ flexibility to add in free agency or a trade is determined by the future of Kuminga, who along with Moses Moody are eligible to sign rookies extensions before the season starts. If a deal with Kuminga is not reached, Golden State is still over the salary cap because of its free agent hold.
(R), Josh Giddey (R), Kyrie Irving (P), Aaron Gordon (P), Jamal Murray, Jonathan Kuminga (R), Jalen Green (R), Alperen Sengun (R), Fred VanVleet (T), Myles Turner, James Harden (P), Rudy Gobert (P), Brandon Ingram, Alex Caruso, Jalen Suggs (R)
Starter level: Clint Capela, Cam Thomas (R), Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, D’Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton (P), Naz Reid (P), Trey Murphy (R), Kelly Oubre Jr. (P), Tyus Jones and John Collins
P: Player option; T: Team option; R: Restricted
Expect the group of free agents to shrink this season.
Despite a projected 10% increase in the salary cap, ESPN is projecting only the Brooklyn Nets to have more than $30 million in room next July. The Houston Rockets could join the Nets if they decline the $44.8 million VanVleet team option.
The list of teams that project to have fewer than $25 million includes the San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans (but only if they do not re-sign Ingram), LA Clippers and Chicago Bulls.
The ability for a player to re-sign with his current team, opt-into a contract and then extend continues to prove more beneficial. Of the 242 players that signed contracts this offseason, only Paul George and Isaiah Hartenstein changed teams for starting salaries greater than $30 million.
For example, Ingram is eligible to sign a four-year, $208 million extension but becomes an unrestricted free agent if there is no agreement reached prior to June 30.
“There is a financial reality to this,” Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin said of Ingram’s status on Sirius XM in July. “And where I think we can go in terms of keeping this group together, might not be as far as he and his agency would like us to be able to go. So for now, we’re going to play it out. “
) in 2022 who made that type of move.
That’s how two of this summer’s most notable deals were completed. The Mavericks’ deal for Thompson allowed the Warriors to then sign Anderson and Hield in a record-breaking six-team trade.
Similarly, the Sacramento Kings’ move for free agent DeMar DeRozan came via a sign-and-trade involving the Bulls and Spurs.
and Cameron Johnson this season. Finney-Smith has a $15.4 million player option and could be a free agent in 2025. Johnson has two years and $43 million remaining after this season.
“I think we have to be patient, you know, we’re not going to be in a hurry, ” Nets general manager Sean Marks said about the team’s rebuilding process in July.
“But I do think being in this market, with this amount of draft assets, we’ve done it before. And so again, I think, not that it’s going to be expedited by any means, but I don’t think it’s a long process, either.”
The Nets are not the only team currently holding multiple 2025 first-round picks. Combine their four with Oklahoma City (3), Utah (3), San Antonio (2), Orlando (2) and that’s nearly half of the picks in the first round.
is the wild card.
San Antonio does not have the cap space Brooklyn possesses, but the Spurs could have two chances at potential No. 1 pick and franchise player Cooper Flagg.
The Spurs have their own first and also the Hawks’ unprotected first that was obtained in the Dejounte Murray trade in 2022. They also have the Hornets’ first, but that is protected top-14.
Flagg, ranked No. 1 in the 2024 ESPN 100, continued to impress team executives with his play against Team USA prior to the Paris Summer Olympics. ESPN draft expert Jonathan Givony projects Flagg, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper as the top three prospects for next year’s draft.
San Antonio also has the draft assets and tradable contracts to use in a trade. Including their two firsts next June, the Spurs control their own first in every season and have future firsts from Chicago, Atlanta and Sacramento. They also have swap rights with Boston (2028), Minnesota or Dallas (2030) and Sacramento (2031).
Besides the ability to create up to $28 million in room, San Antonio has no player earning more than $30 million in 2025 and five players on first-round scale contracts.
(five years, $314 million) as well as Derrick White (four years, $125.9 million) and Sam Hauser (four years, $45 million) for a total of $485 million.
“We’re going to make sure we give this group a chance to build on what they just accomplished. They deserve that,” Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens told the Boston Globe in August.
The new contracts for the three players do not begin until next offseason and coincide when the NBA yet again is set to introduce more punitive penalties to teams that spend excessively. Along with the existing apron restrictions that limit how teams can add to their rosters outside of retaining their own players, the Celtics and teams over the luxury tax will pay a bigger financial penalty.
Because the Celtics are a projected repeater tax team (a tax team in four straight seasons), they are projected to pay a record high $280 million tax penalty. If the roster stays intact, the team’s bill in players’ salaries and tax penalties will exceed $500 million.
The Celtics were purchased for $360 million in 2002.
“We’ll cross every bridge when we get there, and the different basketball penalties that will be associated with being above the second apron, those are real, and we’ll just have to weigh those against where we are as a basketball team, and we’ll also have to weigh the financial part of that,” Stevens said. “And I’m sure part of that will be a discussion amongst whoever the new investors are.”
As announced in July, the Celtics majority ownership group led by Wyc Grousbeck expect to sell a majority interest in the team either this year or early next year. It is expected that Grousbeck will remain as the team’s governor until the end of 2028.
The Celtics are not the only repeater tax team that could be impacted. The Phoenix Suns committed $410 million to their roster this season and are projected to pay $540 million in salary and tax penalties in 2025-26. The Suns’ $310 million projected tax penalty next year is equivalent to the combined salaries of Brooklyn, Washington and San Antonio.
— three teams projected to be over the second apron in 2025-26 — will face the same restrictions in how they can add to their rosters.
Those teams will not be allowed to send out money, sign a player to the $5.7 million tax midlevel exception, take back more than 100% in salary in a trade or aggregate contracts sent out.
Because each of the three teams are projected to finish over the second apron this season, their 2032 first-round pick starting in late June now becomes frozen and untradable.
Where teams benefit from is the salary cap increasing 10% because the apron levels are tied in with its growth. That means the second-apron level is projected to increase from $178.1 to $195.9 million. Therefore, 26 teams are projected to be at least $20 million or more below the second apron next offseason because of the increase.
One of those teams is the Knicks. Since Brunson took $11 million less in salary for next season, New York is a projected $21.5 million below the second apron.
and Tatum broke the record for the largest contract in NBA history.
Next year, the honor probably will go to Doncic.
Because Doncic earned All-NBA in 2023 and 2024 with Dallas, he is now eligible to sign a five-year, $345 million supermax extension next summer. The $59.5 million salary in the first year would begin in 2026-27.
Though Doncic is set to earn the largest overall contract, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could become the first player to have a salary in one season for more than $80 million.
Like Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander will still be eligible to sign a supermax extension because he was selected All-NBA in 2023 and 2024. But because he has two years left starting next summer, the extension is only for four years and $293 million.
Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander will still be eligible to sign the extensions even if they do not earn All-NBA this season or meet the 65-game criteria.
Other supermax eligible players (Fox, Young, Jaren Jackson Jr., Michael Porter Jr.) but only if they earn All-NBA, MVP or defensive player of the year in 2024-25.
Young received All-NBA honors in 2022, Fox in 2023 and Jackson was selected defensive player of the year in 2023.
If Jamal Murray and Ingram do not sign extensions this season and then are All-NBA, both would be eligible to sign a five-year, $314 million contract next July.
Cunningham, Wagner, Mobley and Barnes all have All-NBA, MVP and defensive player of the year language in their max rookie extensions. For Barnes and Cunningham, their $224 million extension increases to $269 million if they each earn either one of those honors.
and Jalen Williams.
Paolo Banchero, the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year, could become the first Orlando Magic player to sign a rookie max extension since Dwight Howard in 2027.
Banchero, Holmgren and Williams are eligible to sign five-year, $246 million extensions. Those extensions could increase to $296 million if All-NBA, MVP or defensive player of the year honors are negotiated into the contracts.
Other notable rookie extension candidates include Keegan Murray, Jabari Smith Jr., Bennedict Mathurin, Walker Kessler and Nikola Jovic.
