NBA offseason survey: Coaches, execs and scouts predict the MVP, title winner

Where do NBA decision-makers see this season heading?

Last month, we published the first half of our annual NBA offseason survey, breaking down the best, worst and most surprising deals of the summer and the impact of the league’s new roster-building restrictions.

Now, we’re revealing what 18 NBA coaches, scouts and executives are predicting for the 2024-25 season and beyond.

Will Nikola Jokic claim a fourth Most Valuable Player award in five seasons? Will the Boston Celtics become the first team since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors to win back-to-back titles? Which rookie from the 2024 class will turn into a star?

And which players and teams didn’t receive votes? Follow along as our NBA offseason survey previews the upcoming 2024-25 season.

Who is the NBA’s best player right now?

Nikola Jokic: 15 votes
Luka Doncic: 2
Anthony Edwards: 1

Jokic is this survey’s runaway winner for the second year in a row. That’s not a surprise, considering the Denver Nuggets center is coming off his third Most Valuable Player award in four seasons. Neither is Doncic’s place on this list after he led the league in scoring at 33.9 points per game and took the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals.

More surprising was that Edwards joined Doncic as the only other player to receive a vote. The West scout who chose Edwards gave a simple reason: “It’s his time.”

Bucks forward and two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had been the only player to receive a vote in this survey in each of the past four years, ended his run after the Bucks fell in the first round for the second straight postseason. Antetokounmpo missed all of Milwaukee’s 2024 playoff exit against the Indiana Pacers due to a calf strain.

Who will be the NBA’s best player in five years?

Victor Wembanyama: 12
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2
Luka Doncic: 2
Anthony Edwards: 1
Nikola Jokic: 1

Wembanyama, the 7-foot-4 French phenom coming off a unanimous Rookie of the Year selection and leading his country to a silver medal in the Paris Olympics, has met or exceeded the lofty expectations placed on him since entering the league ahead of the 2023-24 season.

Joining Wemby on the list are three elite young stars — Doncic (25), Gilgeous-Alexander (26) and Edwards (23) — and the 29-year-old Jokic, with the East executive who picked him arguing that the Nuggets big man will remain atop the league well into his mid-30s.

Who will be the 2024-25 NBA MVP?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 7
Luka Doncic: 5
Anthony Edwards: 2
Nikola Jokic: 2
Jayson Tatum: 2

Gilgeous-Alexander and Doncic lead the way in a similarly narrow vote to their second- and third-place finishes in last season’s official ballot.

Tatum picked up votes on the strength of Boston’s title and the expectation he will continue to be the best player on the league’s best team, while those picking Jokic are voting for a historic MVP run. A fourth award in five seasons would move him into an extremely exclusive group — only LeBron James and Bill Russell have done it.

Who will be the 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year?

Zach Edey: 8
Reed Sheppard: 5
Alex Sarr: 2
Stephon Castle: 1
Tristan da Silva: 1
Rob Dillingham: 1

Fitting for a class lacking a consensus top talent, six players received votes. In the end, a consensus formed around two players battling in the Southwest division: Memphis center Zach Edey and Houston guard Reed Sheppard. While Edey is slated to start at center right away, the Rockets’ backcourt depth could impact playing time for Sheppard.

The lone non-lottery pick was da Silva, who was taken by the Orlando Magic with the 18th pick. The East executive who picked Silva compared his game to the 18th pick in the 2023 draft, Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr., another older college player who immediately stepped into a role on a playoff team.

Who will be the best player from the 2024-25 rookie class in five years?

Reed Sheppard: 8
Stephon Castle: 3
Donovan Clingan: 2
Nikola Topic: 2
Matas Buzelis: 1
Bub Carrington: 1
Dalton Knecht: 1

Sheppard, who impressed during a short run at the summer league in Las Vegas after winning National Freshman of the Year at Kentucky, ran away with the vote.

“He checked every box,” an East scout said of the No. 3 pick’s summer run, during which he averaged 20.0 points and 5.3 assists over four games.

Castle got multiple votes for his two-way potential alongside Wembanyama in San Antonio. “He’s got big-time tools,” a West scout of Castle’s game.

Serbian guard Nikola Topic, who will miss the 2024-25 season with a torn ACL that caused him to fall to the Thunder at No. 12, generated plenty of buzz during the pre-draft process, with teams praising his playmaking ability.

Which team will win each conference in 2024-25?

EAST
Boston Celtics: 13
Milwaukee Bucks: 2
New York Knicks: 2
Philadelphia 76ers: 1

WEST
Oklahoma City Thunder: 14
Dallas Mavericks: 2
Minnesota Timberwolves: 2

Two clear favorites emerged, with the Celtics and Thunder — last season’s top two playoff seeds — getting more than 70% of the vote with a flurry of contenders following. Most notably among the second tier was the Bucks, who were tabbed as the biggest threat to dethrone the Celtics.

“I think they’ll have stability in Year 2 under Doc [Rivers],” a West scout said. “They’ll have a full year together. And Giannis is still Giannis.”

Who will win the 2024-25 NBA title?

Boston Celtics: 8
Oklahoma City Thunder: 7
Dallas Mavericks: 1
Milwaukee Bucks: 1
Minnesota Timberwolves: 1

Boston and OKC dominate once again in the vote for the league’s next champion, with the panel giving a slight edge to the Celtics capturing banner No. 19 over the Thunder breaking through for their first.