Players and teams to target/avoid in the fantasy playoffs

The NBA season is winding down to its final, precious weeks and with it the fantasy basketball playoffs have arrived. Fantasy managers tend to be loyal, trusting the players they have relied upon for months, but those seeking championships should be willing to do whatever it takes to win, within reason, and become open-minded to changing players with ordinary statistics for upgrades.

Ten franchises will miss the NBA playoffs and the play-in tournament, and most of those organizations struggle to defend and know it, so fantasy managers should look there first for advantages. The Washington Wizards are particularly terrible in permitting points and solid shooting, especially after trading away Daniel Gafford, along with the Atlanta Hawks, Utah Jazz, Detroit Pistons and even the relevant Indiana Pacers.

Those in weekly formats must pay attention to games played, regardless of opponent. For example, this current week, the Dallas Mavericks and Charlotte Hornets each play only two games. A myriad of teams play twice as many. No one should bench Luka Doncic, but we should keep an eye on other statistically prominent players. Volume matters, though there are no two-game weeks after this one.

A number of top players are hurt or resting, and in some cases, they will not return for more than a few games in the final weeks or two, if at all. Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns and Trae Young are legitimately hurt and it is anyone’s guess if they return by the first week of April. Donovan Mitchell is out with a broken nose and he may sit until the final week. Fantasy managers may need the roster spot today.

For our purposes in the fantasy world, we will focus on recommending players available in at least 50% of ESPN standard leagues, mainly looking at a team’s volume and opponents.

Boston Celtics

The Eastern Conference and its top seed are all but wrapped up, so expect the Celtics to rest their star players, perhaps more than other teams like the Milwaukee Bucks (who will not finish first) and Denver Nuggets (who are still vying for top seed in the West). This plan has already begun in Boston as Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard and Luke Kornet have seem an increase in minutes which should continue as the season nears its end. The Celtics face the lowly Hawks twice next week, with two games against the Hornets and one against the Wizards remaining. At the same time, do not part with all of their stars, but expect Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to sit liberally.

Minnesota Timberwolves

One of several teams with a shot at the top seed in the West, the Timberwolves host the Pistons and Bulls next week, and then host the Raptors, Wizards and Hawks in April. That sounds positive for fantasy investors of not only Anthony Edwards, but Naz Reid, who may be available in your league. Kyle Anderson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have each averaged over 24 ESPN fantasy points over the past 30 days while Jaden McDaniels is close. They are all readily available. Towns remains rostered in 76% of leagues, but unless you are playing in a keeper format, it is safe to move on from him.

Indiana Pacers

The league’s highest scoring team has barely outscored its opposition and seems in no hurry to alter its strategy, so expect offensive slugfests. The Pacers are competing for a playoff spot, and they soon face the Nets twice in a three-day span, and the Raptors and Hawks in the final week. T.J. McConnell is outscoring (in fantasy) more than a few highly rostered point guards over the past 30 days, and Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Jalen Smith have been productive in that span.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are also trying to win, and Ayo Dosunmu and Alex Caruso have piled on the fantasy points since the All-Star break. Each is available in more than 70% of ESPN standard leagues. Andre Drummond can aid roto managers in rebounds. Chicago still has two games against Wizards and face the Pacers, Nets and Hawks, but there is also a potential problem looming. The Bulls play three games against the defensive-minded Knicks, though two of them in the final week, perhaps when your fantasy season is over. Play them for now and worry about the final week later.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are not winning much but boast six players that have averaged at least 24 ESPN fantasy points per game over the past 30 days, and four of them (Nick Richards, Vasilije Micic, Tre Mann and Grant Williams) are available in at least 85% of standard leagues. Charlotte has a rather tough schedule left with four games each week after the current one and who knows who suits up for the Celtics and Cavaliers in the final week.

New Orleans Pelicans

While Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones are readily available and producing excellent numbers in comparison to their low roster percentage rates, the Pelicans’ schedule is not an easy one after this week. New Orleans faces nothing but playoff/play-in teams the rest of the season, except for the Spurs and Blazers. Therefore, it may not be a great time to invest in Murphy and Jones. Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum are also averaging far fewer fantasy points than those guys over the past 30 days but rostered in most leagues. They are both candidates to be replaced in fantasy leagues.