Lowe: A dangerous West team on the rise, a key acquisition on the Suns and the Bucks’ shrinking margin for error

This week, we highlight a dangerous team creeping up the Western Conference, a secret key to a long Phoenix Suns playoff run and a shrinking margin for error for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.

Jump to Lowe’s Things:
The dangerous Pels | What has gotten into McConnell?
Orlando’s stars amplify each other | The player that can help Bridges
Where is Tobias Harris? A Bulls hiccup
O’Neale’s impact in Phoenix | Bucks’ shrinking margin for error

(and Trey Murphy III) are happening … right?

The Pelicans’ true level of seriousness has yet to be determined. On paper, their case is ironclad. Roaring through the softest part of their schedule has left the Pelicans with the league’s fourth-best point differential. They are 10th in offensive efficiency and sixth in defense — one of four teams in the top 10 in both.

They are 21-13 on the road and 20-17 against teams above .500. And yet accounting for injuries to opponents’ stars, the Pelicans’ only landmark win of the past two months came on the road against the LA Clippers — a physical, playoff-style game. In fairness, the Pelicans have dealt with their share of injuries. They also blew out the Indiana Pacers at home two weeks ago — a good win.

They had a solid grasp on the No. 5 seed and tons of media attention as they opened a tougher portion of their schedule Wednesday … and got rolled at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers. The skeptics crowed, recalling New Orleans spotlight pratfall in the in-season tournament semifinals: This team is interesting, and weird, and sometimes awesome — but they are not serious people.

We’ll know more soon; the Pelicans face the Clippers on Friday, with games against the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat and Orlando Magic in the next two weeks.

The Pelicans are weird. Even with more time together, the starry trio of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum is minus-nine in 658 minutes. The spacing can get clunky.

The coaching staff never seems entirely sure about which center — Larry Nance Jr. or Jonas Valanciunas — fits better with certain core lineup combinations, or how much (if at all) to shift Williamson to center. There is a gray area between versatility and confusion; the Pelicans live there.

But something real is happening. You don’t win on the road and pile up a top-five scoring margin over 65 games by accident. In some of those wins against bad and injury-ravaged teams, the Pelicans rampaged to huge first-quarter leads — icy statements of supremacy: We are better than you, and we don’t have time for this.

Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III are the skeleton keys that have unlocked the Pelicans’ identity. After a slow start recovering from knee issues, Murphy is up to 37% on an ungodly 10 3s per 36 minutes. Insert him for one of the Pelicans’ three stars, and the team sings. Slotting Murphy one pass away from a Williamson isolation puts the defense is in a bind; Murphy is growing comfortable driving by defenders who rush to close out on him:

His off-the-bounce game is a little stiff, but it works because of his size and the threat of his jump shot.

The Pelicans often have Murphy set on-ball picks for Williamson, rocket off flare screens from Nance and keep the offense chugging from there:

Jones is one of the league’s dozen best defenders, and he’s shooting 43.5% on 3s. Holy god. If he sustains anything close to 40%, Jones becomes maybe the league’s premiere role player. He is in the first year of a four-year, $53.8 million deal

In 494 minutes with both Jones and Murphy on the floor, the Pelicans are plus-144.

Ingram is attacking with new grit and steeliness. McCollum has migrated toward the 3-point arc to open the paint for Williamson and Ingram. The past month has been the best of Williamson’s career on defense. He’s even showing signs of life on the defensive glass, long an embarrassing weak spot. That helps the Pelicans’ offense too, because Williamson can turn defensive rebounds into stampeding layups:

If New Orleans makes the playoffs, its opponents will peck at Williamson’s defense at a level he has never seen. It will be relentless. Teams will yank him into one pick-and-roll after another, testing his will to make multiple rotations, trying to exhaust and even humiliate him.

Is he ready? How will the Pelicans respond to postseason adversity? It would be great theater.

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A guard whose defining trait on offense was a sometimes puzzling refusal to shoot has suddenly cracked double digits in 11 of his past 24 games — and scored 16 or more eight times. It turns out McConnell is, umm, kind of unstoppable one-on-one?

McConnell burrows in zig-zags and then suddenly rises up for ultra-short jumpers. I’m not sure any player takes as many full-throated jumpers from between 6 and 8 feet out. It is such a strange shot. Defenders don’t expect it. If McConnell needs extra space, he’ll hit defenders with subtle shoulder blocks and sharp elbows.

The Pacers have scored 1.32 points directly out of McConnell isolations — eighth among 264 players with at least 20 isos, per Second Spectrum. I mean, what? T.J. freaking McConnell is doing that?

As defenses digest that McConnell might actually shoot, they send more help toward him — unlocking his passing game.

McConnell is, as ever, a handsy pest on defense — the original master of the back-court sneak steal before Jose Alvarado turned it into avant-garde art. Trades and injuries — most recently the season-ending shoulder injury to Bennedict Mathurin — have forced Indiana to pair McConnell and Tyrese Haliburton more; Indiana is a monstrous plus-61 in their 129 shared minutes.

McConnell already has good chemistry finding Pascal Siakam on cuts — a fulcrum of Indiana’s offense when Haliburton rests.

After opening the season on the fringes of the rotation, McConnell is indispensable again. There is something inevitable about him — irresistible to coaches.

and Orlando Magic — the latter a pivotal game in the race to avoid the play-in. The Magic and Thunder wins were two of Indiana’s five stingiest defensive performances, and it’s not a coincidence their defense tightens with McConnell on the floor. The Pacers are giving more minutes to rugged defenders in Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Ben Sheppard — even dabbling in huge lineups with Nesmith as the nominal shooting guard. Jarace Walker has had moments.

3. The Orlando Magic’s two young stars, finding ways to amplify each other

The basketball nerd inside me squealed upon seeing this:

Orlando’s tentpole stars cede the ball to a role player and cooperate in a split-style action.

It is tricky at this early stage for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to make things easier for each other in conventional ways. Neither has much gravity away from the ball, though Banchero popping to 36% on 3s is massively encouraging. They are the same height and play similar styles, which means the defenders guarding them will often be about the same size — making it easier to switch two-man actions. The Magic’s deficit of shooting around Banchero and Wagner doesn’t help.

But even now, with both guys so young and the broader roster a work in progress, there are tactics to mine. The Pacers on this play indeed defend Banchero and Wagner with two like-sized defenders — Siakam and Nesmith. They switch in sync. The play works anyway. Wagner’s screen pins Siakam on the top side — prey for that backdoor cut.

The Magic are here to stay. Losses to the Knicks and Pacers in the past week hurt them in the race for the No. 4 seed (!), but they still have a two-game cushion above No. 6 and one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules — with 10 of their last 16 games at home.

can make Mikal Bridges’s life easier

Bridges has wobbled under the burden of being the No. 1 option. He’s averaging 3.8 assists and might be about maxed out as a playmaker. He’s shooting a career-worst 50% on 2s. Expending more on offense has dented his defense.

Bridges’ time in Brooklyn has revealed him to be the No. 2 or probably even No. 3 option on a great team. That’s fine. That is still a supremely valuable player. Even with some slippage, Bridges’ numbers are still good: 20.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists on 44% shooting — including 36% on 3s.

(And now the obligatory mention of Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be the orchestrator in Brooklyn. It is impossible to overstate how devastating Simmons turning into a zero is for the Nets. The gap between what they gave up for James Harden and what they got back for him is now the Grand Canyon. Simmons underwent surgery Thursday to relieve pain in his back, the Nets said. A return to even 50% of Simmons’ peak form feels wildly unlikely, but maybe the basketball gods will provide.)

The Nets surely recognize this. Building “around” Bridges does not mean trying to construct a contender with Bridges as the best player. It means using extra first-round draft picks from the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, and Philadelphia 76ers to trade for a superstar who wants to play alongside Bridges.

In the meantime, Thomas and Dennis Schroder can siphon some ballhandling from Bridges and feed him the kind of catch-and-shoot looks he feasted on in Phoenix:

Bridges attempted just 43 pull-up 3s combined in 2020-21 and 2021-22. He has tried 106 alone this season, and done well to hit 36 of them — 34% — considering the degree of difficulty. Almost 40% of his baskets have been unassisted; that number was in the teens during his best Phoenix seasons.

Thomas, meanwhile, is averaging 3.6 dimes since Jan. 17 compared to a measly 2.2 before. He has had games with six and eight assists in that stretch, and has become a deft lob passer. He’s more engaged on defense.

This is not a sea change. Thomas still takes too many tough 2s, misses some open reads and falls asleep away from the ball now and then on defense. But he’s barely 22, and finding balance — with opponents placing him atop the scouting report — was going to take time.

Two months ago, Thomas was playing one-on-everyone within the game going on around him. It is hard to play with that kind of scorer, even when he’s rolling. He still defaults to that mode at times. But for longer stretches, Thomas resembles a normal basketball player more than a carnival act. If he and the Nets harness that, Thomas can be a productive player on good teams.

Right now, Brooklyn is a bad team that does not control its first-round pick until 2028. They boast those extra first-round picks, but if Bridges is off limits in trade talks — and if he’s the superstar lure, he has to be — then what players does Brooklyn have to grease the wheels? Its rookies are unproven. Nicolas Claxton is an unrestricted free agent. Cameron Johnson’s value on a fat long-term contract is in the eye of the beholder.

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Flattening a player’s performance down to points is always too simple, but how in the world has Harris’s scoring dropped in the absence of Joel Embiid? Harris has cracked 20 points in just five of the 17 games he has played since Embiid went out with a meniscus injury. Harris has more games in that stretch (six) with 11 or fewer points, hitting a nadir with a silent two-point outing in Philadelphia’s blowout loss to the New York Knicks on Tuesday. The loss shoved Philly into the play-in tournament.

The Sixers were drawing dead in some recent losses regardless of Harris’ output; a pile of other rotation players have missed games.

But some losses were close. Scoring has been Harris’ best NBA skill, and he has not provided nearly enough of it with Philly dying for points. There has been no compensatory uptick in his passing, rebounding or defense.

Harris looks passive — disinterested in even trying to score — on too many possessions.

Harris is the team’s No. 1 option there. Buddy Hield swings Harris the ball and runs to screen for him — an inverted pick-and-roll that could force CJ McCollum to switch onto Harris. Harris touches the ball to Kelly Oubre Jr. and gets out of the way. For all his warts, Oubre is always game to shoot. Harris could use a dose of Oubre’s bravado.

When he’s off the ball, Harris is not moving like someone who wants to get it back. He floats around the perimeter, exchanging places without really making himself available. There have been instances in which Harris has popped open near the paint and frozen in place — or even receded from the rim.

The only times Harris shows aggression are in transition and posting up smaller players. He came to life in the fourth quarter of Philly’s loss Thursday to Milwaukee, but it was too late.

Harris has surely heard the talk of how the Sixers will have oodles of cap space once his deal expires. It would be understandable for that to be infecting his play.

in the race for the No. 9 seed and home-court advantage in what might be the least anticipated — including by fans of both teams — play-in game ever. The NBA should rename this the Default Bowl. (As Homer Simpson, sage of sages, once declared: “De-fault! Woo-hoo! The two sweetest words in the English language!” Homer didn’t say it, but the runner-up might be: “Eastern Conference.”)

Regardless of your take on the franchise’s long-term vision, this set of Bulls players and coaches deserve credit for battling amid injuries to Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Torrey Craig and (yes) Lonzo Ball. Nikola Vucevic’s offense has ticked up from dire to something approaching acceptable.

DeMar DeRozan is a scoring metronome — the driver, again, of Chicago’s preposterous crunch-time offense. Coby White’s breakout sustained. Alex Caruso is a candidate for an All-Defensive Team; Ayo Dosunmu isn’t too far behind. Both are scoring more, making teams pay for hiding big men on them. (The DeRozan-Caruso inverted pick-and-roll — with Vucevic spotting up and Caruso slipping to the rim — is a threat now.)

One nit-pick: when the Bulls rest White and DeRozan at the same time. Those lineups don’t have enough shot creation to tread water. In a loss to the Clippers on Saturday, versions of this lineup type were minus-three in three minutes. Two days later in a humiliating 35-point loss to Dallas, they went minus-18 in 14 minutes — before garbage time. The Bulls mothballed them in their thrilling overtime win over the Pacers on Wednesday, keeping one of White and DeRozan on the floor at all times.

brings to the Phoenix Suns

With their big three finally healthy again, it’s time for the Suns to find some rhythm for what even in the best scenarios will be a daunting postseason run. The Warriors and Lakers sputtering has provided some cushion above the No. 9 seed — the loser’s bracket in the play-in — but Phoenix after Thursday’s dispiriting loss in Boston is fighting from behind in a four-team war for the No. 5 and 6 seeds. They are No. 7, play-in territory, with a brutal and road-heavy remaining schedule. Gulp.

The Suns have slipped from the national radar because of on-again, off-again injuries to Devin Booker and Bradley Beal; we haven’t been able to draw any real conclusions about what this team is. That confusion has obscured that the Suns have as much riding on this single season as any team. They traded everything and tossed the second apron into the barbecue embers — and are at risk of play-in fickleness with Kevin Durant at age 35.

Even given the injuries, a first-round loss (or something worse) would be an unmitigated disaster. The Suns need to win now, and they will have to do it on the road against powerhouse teams.

They have the ceiling on offense to compete against anyone. The Suns are plus-8.7 points per 100 possession with Beal, Booker and Durant on the floor. Their architecture — all-world offense, average defense — can get you deep in the postseason.

Given what little Phoenix had left to trade, nabbing O’Neale was the best it could do. He is snaring minutes that used to go to below-replacement players, and can play alongside any combination of Phoenix’s starry trio in different lineup types — bigger groups with Jusuf Nurkic at center and super-small lineups with Durant sliding to the 5. (Those small-ball lineups have a positive scoring margin, per Cleaning The Glass, but only barely. They cannot hold up for long on defense and the glass, and you can’t win over extended periods if the opposing offense can just play volleyball against you. They almost seem like less an ace in the hole and more coach Frank Vogel not having any faith in any other ideas.)

O’Neale adds a little in-your-jersey fight on defense for an undersized team that doesn’t have enough. Boston’s wing brigade made Phoenix look small on Thursday.

The best thing about O’Neale — the thing that makes him ideal for this team — is that he refuses to stand still. He is always moving, screening, making smart extra passes. He is a connector — a needed injection of randomness for a team that can bog down in your-turn, my-turn basketball. (They still score like gangbusters that way.)

O’Neale’s game is most alive when opponents hide their smallest and weakest defenders on him. O’Neale snaps into screening mode, dragging those guys into pick-and-rolls with Phoenix’s stars — forcing the defense to either switch into mismatches or engage rotations that open holes everywhere. O’Neale thrives in those gaps:

Now he needs to start making 3s again.

and at home over the Clippers — the latter without Antetokounmpo.

Damian Lillard erupted for 41 points in that game. He has been better over the past month. The Lillard-Antetokounmpo two-man game is smoothing out as Rivers leans into it more. But Lillard has scored 18 or fewer points in seven of his past 16 games. That happened in just three games all last season. Even given the new context — sharing shots with a superstar peer — Lillard just hasn’t been the consistent force he was in Portland. In some games, he looks out of rhythm in the paint.

Everywhere around Antetokounmpo, there are maybes. The Bucks went 1-3 on their recent West Coast trip, losing at the buzzer to the Lakers without LeBron James and getting obliterated in Golden State and Sacramento. Almost 70 games in, we are still waiting for the Bucks to look like the Bucks for eight or 10 straight games.

Jae Crowder doesn’t do as much anymore. Pat Connaughton is solid — shooting 40% on corner 3s, and he might be the Bucks’ best on-ball screener for Antetokounmpo. But he’s a half-step slower on defense, struggling to contain the ball. The Bucks need him to function at a fifth-starter level, and he hasn’t quite been that. Malik Beasley is already overstretched in that role, at least on defense.