NBA Rookie Power Rankings: Is Chet Holmgren or Victor Wembanyama on top?

No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama has smashed through the supposed “rookie wall,” making for a fascinating Rookie of the Year race as of the All-Star break.

The notion of the rookie wall is that first-year players, unaccustomed to the grueling NBA schedule, start to struggle once they pass their smaller totals of games played from shorter prep, collegiate and other pro leagues. Wembanyama matched the 34 games he played in the French Pro A regular season on Jan. 15, just before our last rookie rankings. Since then, all Wembanyama has done is average 22.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 3.2 blocks per game.

It’s not just Wemby. Although early Rookie of the Year front-runner Chet Holmgren has seen his scoring drop over the course of the season, as a whole, the league’s first-year players are surging. Among the 20 rookies who have played the most minutes this season, January was their best month in minutes per game and game score per 36 minutes — until February, when they’ve surpassed both marks again.

Has Wembanyama done enough to take over the top spot in our rookie rankings? All season, ESPN’s Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton will be checking in on first-year players — including Holmgren, who is eligible for Rookie of the Year after missing his first season in the NBA because of injury — and ranking their top 10.

1.

Marks: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

I had Wembanyama as the top rookie even before his 27 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 10 blocks performance at Toronto on Monday night. In that game, Wembanyama became the first rookie since David Robinson in 1990 to have a triple-double with 10 blocks. What is remarkable is that Wembanyama played only 29 minutes and has not played more than 31 minutes in a game since Dec. 17. He is the first player to average 20 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks at the All-Star break since Shaquille O’Neal in 1999-2000, the season O’Neal won MVP. One thing to keep an eye on is Wembanyama’s improved shooting. In his first 35 games, Wembanyama shot 29.3% on 3-pointers, third worst among players with at least 150 attempts. Since Jan. 20, Wembanyama has shot 38.8% from deep.

Pelton: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder

I’m keeping Chet in the top spot, by a hair. As Bobby notes, minutes are a key factor. Holmgren has played 232 minutes more than Wembanyama because Victor has missed a handful of games and hasn’t played more than 31 minutes since Dec. 17. Holmgren is logging heavy minutes, the most of any rookie, for a team battling to have home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. However, Wembanyama’s surge has him catching Holmgren in advanced metrics with enough time to pass him by season’s end.

2.

Pelton: Wembanyama

There are plenty of stats to show how unprecedented Wembanyama’s rookie season is, but perhaps most remarkable is his 32% usage rate, the highest on record for a qualifying rookie since player turnovers were first tracked in 1977-78, according to Stathead.com. Wemby has surpassed Luka Doncic’s 30.5% as another veteran of professional basketball in Europe, with Michael Jordan in fifth at 30%. We’ve seen MVP Joel Embiid (36%!) carry an even heavier load in a shortened season, but Wembanyama is doing so night in and night out, a process that should accelerate his development as it did for Doncic — an All-NBA first-team pick in his second season.

Marks: Holmgren

If not for the historic play of Wembanyama, I would have Holmgren as the favorite for Rookie of the Year. Since our last rankings, Holmgren ranks second in blocks, third in rebounds and third in 3-point percentage (among rookies with at least four attempts per game). Along with Wembanyama, Holmgren is the only player since Jan. 15 with 25 3-pointers and 40 blocks. Impressively, after missing the entire 2022-23 season with a foot injury, Holmgren has played in every game this season.

3.

Pelton: Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks

The extended time Lively has missed over the past two months — 16 games since Dec. 18, including seven with a nasal fracture before returning on Wednesday ahead of the All-Star break — has revealed his importance to the Mavericks. Dallas is 23-14 when Lively plays, a 51-win pace, and 9-9 without him. That surely played a role in the Mavericks trading for veteran center Daniel Gafford at the deadline, and it will be interesting to see whether Lively’s presence remains as central with another rim protector and above-the-rim finisher on the roster.

Marks: Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors

The Warriors guard continues to fill the stat sheet and make an impact on the game. Over the first six games of February, Podziemski recorded 41 assists and only four turnovers, becoming the first rookie since Nate McMillan in 1987 with at least 40 assists and fewer than five turnovers over a six-game stretch, per ESPN Stats & Information. Podziemski ranks No. 2 in charges drawn per game and first in total charges drawn. In the Warriors’ past 10 games, Podziemski ranks first in minutes played in the fourth quarter, ahead of both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

4.

Marks: Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets

The rookie rankings have been a roller coaster for Miller. He started in November as an honorable mention, cracked the top five in December, moved back to honorable mention and now climbs all the way to fourth. Since Jan. 15, Miller ranks second among rookies in points per game (22.0), shooting 48.7% from the field and 40% on 3-pointers. He is also tied for second among all players in loose ball recoveries since Jan. 19. A knock against Miller has been his inability in getting to the free throw line. In 48 games played, Miller has attempted four or more free throws only 12 times. Six of those games came after Jan. 15, including a season-high 12 free throw attempts on Feb. 4.

Pelton: Podziemski

There’s a lot of similarity between Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. as rookies carving out key roles on veteran teams and frequently finishing games. The playmaking Bobby mentioned has been a key edge for Podziemski in advanced stats. He’s handing out 5.2 assists per 36 minutes to Jaquez’s 3.2, often of the daring variety, while actually averaging fewer turnovers per minute than Jaquez as well.

5.

Marks: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat

Call it the rookie wall or a left groin injury that caused him to miss six games (the Heat went 1-5 without him), but Jaquez has struggled since the last rankings came out in mid-January. In the 10 games since he returned, Jaquez is shooting 38.6% from the field and 16.7% on 3-pointers. However, because the rankings are based on the totality of the season, Jaquez still ranks in the top five. Jaquez ranks third in minutes played and fourth in points per game among all rookies.

Pelton: Jaquez

It seemed unlikely Jaquez would continue shooting better than the league average from the NBA 3-point line after hitting 32% from the shorter college line as a senior at UCLA (33% career). At the same time, Jaquez is surely a better shooter than we’ve seen over the past month, and he continues to earn Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s trust with his contributions as an active cutter and at the defensive end.

6.

Marks: Lively

January was not a month to remember for Lively. He sprained his left ankle in early January and then broke his nose at the end of the month. The two injuries cost him 11 games. When he was healthy, Lively scored a career-high 20 points in a win at home over the Orlando Magic. His 11 rebounds against the Magic marked the 13th time he grabbed double-digit boards in a game. One thing to keep an eye on going forward will be how much he plays, especially in the fourth quarter, now that the Mavericks have added Gafford.

Pelton: Miller

Besides the free throws Bobby mentioned, another key area of progress for Miller has been converting his length into defensive playmaking. His 12 steals in eight February games are already his most in any month, and his nine blocks tie his best total. Add in the shot-making we’ve seen from Miller lately and that’s the recipe for a valuable modern wing.

7.

Pelton: Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder

Wallace’s shooting improvement has proved remarkably durable. A 35% 3-point shooter in his lone season at Kentucky, Wallace seemed to be returning to Earth when he hit just 31% of his 3s in December after starting off 19-of-33 (58%) in October and November. Since the calendar turned to 2024, however, Wallace is back up to 39.5% to solidify his place in the Oklahoma City backcourt rotation.

Marks: Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets

If the criteria for selection to the Rising Stars game was based on games played since the start of the calendar year, Whitmore would have been on the roster (though an ankle injury would have kept him out of the game anyway). In 21 games since the start of January, Whitmore has averaged 13.7 points per game while shooting 47.5% from the field and 41.3% on 3-pointers.

8.

Marks: Wallace

Wallace is the equivalent of a middle innings reliever in baseball, someone who can make an impact on the game without the numbers jumping out in the box score. He has committed only 25 turnovers in 1,120 minutes this season. His 2.88-to-1 assist to turnovers ratio ranks second behind Podziemski among rookies who average at least 20 minutes per game. Wallace continues to be one of the top rookies shooting the ball from deep, shooting 41.2% on 3-pointers this season.

Pelton: Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons

With Isaiah Stewart sidelined, Thompson has returned to Detroit’s starting lineup the past five games, averaging 12.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. If the Pistons adding shooting via trade allows Monty Williams to play Thompson more despite his lack of range (15.5% on 3s this season), that’s a huge positive. Thompson’s energy and athleticism have helped Detroit allow nine fewer points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court.

9.

Pelton: Whitmore

Whitmore finishing No. 3 behind the top two picks in was a bit surprising given his modest production in one season at Villanova. Since Whitmore cracked the rotation, we’ve seen why. His powerful build makes Whitmore tough to stop from getting to the basket and he’s a threat beyond the arc as well.

Marks: Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets and Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons

Instead of splitting up the Thompson twins, I am going to give them this combined spot. Ausar and Amen Thompson both rank in the top six among all rookies in rebounds and have combined to grab seven or more boards in 38 games this season. In a Feb. 12 win over the New York Knicks, Amen had one of his best all-around games, scoring 8 points, grabbing 13 rebounds (6 offensive), handing out 5 assists and making a career-high 5 steals. In a loss to the Indiana Pacers, Amen joined Ben Simmons as only the second player in the past 50 years with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in each of his first two career starts.

10.

Marks: Keyonte George, Utah Jazz