NBA roundtable: Biggest questions, moves and insights surrounding the 2024 trade deadline

Monday marks one month until the 2024 NBA trade deadline (Feb. 8, 3 p.m. ET) and we’ve already seen a couple of big moves. The Philadelphia 76ers sent James Harden to the LA Clippers early in the season, and both teams are thriving. Then late last month, the Toronto Raptors sent OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, potentially shaking up the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

So, should we expect a lot of action as the trade deadline approaches? Or will things be quiet because of a lack of teams that consider themselves completely out of the playoff picture thanks to the play-in tournament? And are there any big names who will be on the move like in recent years that saw multiple players at an All-Star level moved in February?

To answer these questions and more, we turned to our NBA experts to share what they’re hearing about what could go down in the next month.

MORE: Big questions and trade targets for every team

Which star is most likely to be moved before the deadline?

Bobby Marks: The Raptors have played their best basketball of the season since acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. But that does not mean Pascal Siakam is off limits in trade talks. The forward is in the last year of his contract and the front office has a four-week window to evaluate whether he fits with their new roster. Financially, it depends whether Toronto is comfortable paying him and Quickley over $60 million per year starting in 2024-25. Keep in mind that Scottie Barnes is extension-eligible this offseason. Siakam has value around the league but is allowed to sign only a four-year extension with the Raptors. A team trading for him will need to weigh the risk of losing him as a free agent.

Tim Bontemps: Zach LaVine has to find a new home. Things have not gone well for the Chicago Bulls for the vast majority of LaVine’s tenure in Chicago — and virtually every moment that Lonzo Ball hasn’t been on the court with him. It’s a marriage that’s run its course and both sides would be better off with a fresh start. LaVine’s massive contract (three years and $138 million left after this season), however, makes finding a new home difficult — which is why it hasn’t happened yet.

Andrew Lopez: Once the Raptors moved on from Anunoby, all eyes turned to see if it would ultimately move on from Siakam as well. As Bobby pointed out, since Siakam is in the final year of a contract paying him almost $38 million, it won’t be cheap to match Siakam’s deal. But this would be more about trying to figure out the best fits around Barnes. Barnes is taking the leap many thought he would last season and is averaging career bests in scoring (20.9), rebounding (8.9), assists (5.8), steals (1.5) and blocks per game (1.4). Toronto moving on from Siakam would completely turn the page to the Barnes era.

Chris Herring: The Bulls’ star level play from Coby White and former No. 4 overall pick Patrick Williams without LaVine speaks volumes. LaVine’s presence along with DeMar DeRozan makes Chicago’s offense too iso-heavy. If the Bulls can get back enough meaningful assets, they should absolutely find a new home for the guard who isn’t an ideal fit with this roster at this point. But what, exactly, will a team be willing to give up when LaVine is as pricey as he is?

Brian Windhorst: If you ask executives around the league, Siakam and LaVine are the two names that immediately come up. There will probably be a February surprise that pops onto the market — there always is. There isn’t a lot of “star” availability at the moment, but there is a long way between now and the deadline.

Which team currently in the top three in the standings (Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia; Minnesota, OKC, Denver) most needs to make a trade to solidify itself as a contender?

Windhorst: The Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets have largely exhausted their trade assets. The Boston Celtics could still make a move with some of their draft capital left, but with their current and upcoming payroll it’s probably not something they’re focused on. This is just a process of elimination. I think the Oklahoma City Thunder will answer the phone, but I don’t sense that they will be super active despite a leap into contention. The only contender I can confidently forecast will be aggressive is Philly — it can make multiple deals.

Marks: The top teams, outside of Oklahoma City and Philadelphia, either have no draft picks to move or are top-heavy in salary. For me, it’s Oklahoma City — but not in a blockbuster, all-in type trade. The Thunder rank near the bottom in defensive rebounding percentage (66.9) and could use another big on the roster especially if they are going to face the Timberwolves, Nuggets or the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs. The Thunder have 35 draft picks available (14 first-rounders and 21 second-rounders) and the question comes down to who is expendable? Forward Davis Bertans has a $17 million salary, but he might be better used in a trade in the offseason.

Bontemps: The Philadelphia 76ers are the easy answer here. From the moment James Harden asked out of Philadelphia this team was going to come together in two phases: With whatever it got back for Harden, and with assets to improve the team by the deadline. It will be shocking if Philadelphia looks the same after the trade deadline, and I don’t expect to be shocked.

Lopez: I’m with Tim on this one, the Sixers seem like the no-brainer. When you have your MVP Joel Embiid coming off a month in which he became just the first player in NBA history — including Wilt Chamberlain — to average 40.0 points while shooting 60% from the field (minimum five games), you have to try to make the most of it. The Sixers have a hold on the No. 3 spot for now but trying to make a move, even a smaller one with an eye toward cap space next year, to take the next step seems logical.

Herring: I think it’s the Thunder. They have been incredible this season, exceeding even the loftiest preseason expectations. Even with that being the case, the playoffs are generally a different animal. While a few players — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Davis Bertans — have been to the playoffs before, it generally takes a good young club some time before they break through in the postseason. I agree with Bobby — it doesn’t have to be a blockbuster trade — but depth players with playoff experience could be essential for them.

Which team currently outside the top six in the West (Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, LAL, GS) most needs to make a trade to solidify its playoff hopes?

Bontemps: Lakers by default. The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns have nothing to trade, the Houston Rockets have taken a massive step forward and the Golden State Warriors have the Klay Thompson and Draymond Green situations to deal with. The Lakers, meanwhile, have massive expectations. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have been healthy for all but five games combined but the Lakers are outside of the play-in spots. Moves need to be made — just like they needed to be last season. The widely praised Lakers offseason has not worked out the way they hoped.

Marks: I praised Rob Pelinka and his front office in the offseason for how they added to their roster while also retaining Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura and D’Angelo Russell. Now, a month from the trade deadline, the Lakers are in a free fall (4-10 since the in-season tournament). Blame it on a lack of continuity as a result of injuries, but the Lakers are in danger of not even reaching the play-in tournament. There will be calls for the Lakers to trade for LaVine, which would be ill-advised considering it would cost three to four players (possibly Reaves). Los Angeles could find itself in the same position it was in with Russell Westbrook — an unbalanced roster with three players earning more than $150 million combined per season. The Lakers can trade only one first-round pick (2029 or 2030) and outside of Reaves, have only Russell, Hachimura and Gabe Vincent earning more than $10 million.

Lopez: There has to be a shakeup with the Lakers. Things have not panned out since the in-season tournament the way anyone in Los Angeles would have liked, and the current nosedive is only making things worse. Is there a deal to be worked out with Chicago? Perhaps. But Pelinka needs to look at all avenues to try to turn things around.

Windhorst: The Lakers don’t want to have to make a big move, they prefer to retain their depth and the one last first-rounder they’re allowed to trade. They sure don’t want to trade Reaves and his good contract or trade three players for one like they did with Westbrook. They believe in the formula they have, which is a cadre of long defenders supporting future Hall of Famers. Yes, they can’t shoot and it’s a problem. Yes, their defense has fallen off and it’s a problem. But if they end up doing something significant, it will probably be kicking and screaming. Keep that in mind when evaluating your visits to the trade machine.

Herring: The Lakers are a fair answer, certainly, but we can’t ignore the Warriors. As they prepare for Green’s return, they are about to be without Gary Payton II for at least a few weeks and Chris Paul for four to six weeks. And despite that, third-year guard Moses Moody has been out of the rotation, having been benched for three games before playing five minutes against the Detroit Pistons. Would there be a deal that makes sense for him or Jonathan Kuminga? The team could be in bad shape if it falls victim to any more meaningful injuries in the near future — it has no cushion in the standings to withstand that.

Which player on the league’s bottom-five teams (Charlotte, Washington, Detroit, Portland, San Antonio) could most help a contender in a trade?

Lopez: The San Antonio Spurs aren’t going anywhere this season but are doing everything they can to figure out what the future is around Victor Wembanyama. Forwards Cedi Osman and Doug McDermott don’t seem to figure into the long-term plans for the Spurs’ young core and could be valuable in trades next month. Osman, 28, is averaging 7.5 points in 18.4 minutes this season and shooting 36.0% from 3. The 32-year-old McDermott, who has some playoff experience with Chicago, Oklahoma City and Indiana over the years, is shooting a career-best 44.2% from distance and could help out any team right away.

Bontemps: Bojan Bogdanovic, because he should be available and can help teams. Now in his mid-30s with great experience, he’s still in the neighborhood of 20 points per game and shooting in the high 30s from 3 with over seven attempts per night. For contending teams looking for shooting and scoring at the forward spots, Bogdanovic can immediately play a role down the stretch and in the playoffs.

Windhorst: Bogdanovic will have a big market if he’s made available and every contending team could use him. He’s a plug-and-play type of player and his contract isn’t too big, too long or too short.

Herring: At five years and $160 million, Portland Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant has a big contract but isn’t making an unreasonably high amount. He’d make sense for any number of contending teams, particularly ones who would be interested in landing a free-agent-to-be like Siakam, and don’t want to commit to a max contract that would cost more than what Grant makes. Grant has shown over the years that he can serve as a primary ball handler or fall back into a more supporting role. He’s shooting a career-best 41.6% this season from 3 on almost six attempts a game.

Marks: The Washington Wizards are clearly in a rebuild and veteran point guard Tyus Jones could help teams like Miami and Phoenix. Even Brooklyn, which is hanging for the last play-in spot, has a need for a starting point guard. Jones has started the most games in his career this season (35), averaging career highs in points (12.5) and assists (5.5) and has never averaged more than one turnover per game in his career. Jones is in the last year of his contract but has value because his Bird rights (the ability to re-sign and exceed the cap) transfer in any trade.

Over/under 12 trades at the deadline this season? (There were 15 trades deadline week last season, 12 on that Thursday.)

Herring: I’ll definitely take the over. With only a few teams in the absolute doldrums and so many others bunched together, there should be a ton of activity. I don’t think every team is going to wait until the deadline to make a move, but I still feel strongly that there will be more action than there was at the last deadline.

Lopez: With only five teams looking like they are completely out of the running for even the play-in tournament, the amount of teams looking to get better in February has increased over the past few seasons. After 15 trade deadline deals last year and 16 the year prior, moves among contenders trying to find that final piece or between teams trying to make that final push will be there.

Marks: Over. The 2023 CBA is set to introduce harsher roster restrictions starting in the offseason. As a result, high-spending teams like Boston, Golden State, the Clippers, Milwaukee and Phoenix have a four-week window to address any roster needs. Starting on the first day of the offseason, teams above the first and second aprons are required to match dollar-for-dollar on any trade (of course teams can take back less money). A second apron team like Phoenix is also not allowed to aggregate contracts in a trade or send cash in any trade. The Suns $6.5 million and $5 million trade exception will also expire after the deadline passes.

Bontemps: I’ll take the over. This has been an extremely competitive season, and as a result there’s pressure on a lot of teams to improve and change up their rosters. And the fact that OG Anunoby has already moved means it’s more likely Toronto, for example, is going to be active this month — something that hasn’t been the case in previous seasons.

Windhorst: The number of trades isn’t an indication of the action. There can be a bunch of small cap and roster spot maneuvers that get the number up but don’t move the needle. So the real question is: Will any impact players get traded? Last year we saw Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant making moves and the year before it was James Harden. At the moment, it doesn’t feel like that level of player will be on the move this year. But it’s foolish to think you can predict a month into the future in the NBA.