NBA Rookie Power Rankings: Who lines up behind Chet and Wemby?

When we last checked in on this season’s rookie class, Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren and San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama had separated themselves at the top. From that perspective, not much has changed as we make our way toward Christmas.

However, further down the rankings there has been plenty of movement, as some unexpected names are having a big impact early in this 2023-24 NBA season. All season, ESPN’s Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton will be checking in on first-year players — including Holmgren, who is eligible for Rookie of the Year after missing his first season in the NBA due to injury — and ranking their top 10.

Let’s break down what we’ve seen from rookies so far this season.

1.

Pelton: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder

Predictably, Holmgren hasn’t stayed as hot from the perimeter as he was during the season’s first month. After making 46% of his 3-point attempts through our first rankings, Holmgren has hit just 30% since. That hasn’t stopped him from continuing to make an impact in the paint at both ends, particularly on defense. His 10 shots defended per game inside five feet according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats rank third in the league. As a result, I recently made the case that Holmgren should be the first rookie All-Star since Blake Griffin in 2010-11 based on his performance to date.

Marks: Holmgren

I agree with you on the All-Star consideration and would go one step further, saying Holmgren should be in the MVP conversation if all his games were against Golden State. In four games against the Warriors, Holmgren averaged 23.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and shot 62% from the field. All kidding aside, Holmgren continues to put up record-setting numbers defensively. He is one of three players, along with Anthony Davis and Brook Lopez, to record at least six blocks in multiple games this season and joins Lopez as the only player with 50 blocks and 30 3-pointers.

2.

Pelton: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Wembanyama has started the last four games at center with Zach Collins sliding to the bench and the results have been impressive: 19.8 PPG, 16.5 RPG and 4.3 BPG. Over that span, Wembanyama is defending 11.7 shots per game inside five feet, taking full advantage of his size and length. It remains to be seen how much better floor spacing will help Wembanyama’s efficiency as a scorer. Predictably, he’s making just 28% of his 3s and 50% of his 2s while finishing 30% of the Spurs’ plays when he’s on the court. That’s the biggest factor separating Holmgren and Wembanyama right now.

Marks: Wembanyama

When the first rookie ranking came out in mid-November, there were two areas of concern for me: turnovers and his habit of staying on the 3-point line. Wembanyama has seen an improvement in both. He is still leading all rookies in turnovers (3.4) but has seen that number decrease from 3.9 in the first 11 games to 2.9 since Nov. 15. He had only two turnovers in the Spurs’ win against the Lakers on Dec. 15. In the first month of the season, 54% of his shot attempts came within 16 feet. In the past 12 games, that has increased to 61%, and in his four games at center, 67% of his shots came within 16 feet.

3.

Pelton: Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks

Certainly, Lively has been put in a favorable situation on the receiving end of lobs from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Some 81% of Lively’s scores have been assisted, putting him in the NBA’s top 10 among players with at least 75 field goals per Stathead.com. Still, Lively has been far more efficient (74% from the field) than the similar players Dallas has tried in that spot, including JaVale McGee last year. And his defensive impact has been in the same ballpark as Holmgren and Wembanyama. It’s rare to see three players so strong defending the rim in the same rookie class.

Marks: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat

Jaquez was named Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in November and fit the criteria Miami was looking for in the June draft. Instead of targeting a player with more upside, the Heat — with limited financial resources to add in free agency — drafted a four-year college player who could contribute right away. Jaquez has played the entire fourth quarter in 11 games this season, tied for most by any player. “He’s earned the trust of the staff; but more importantly he’s earned the trust of his teammates,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said back in November. “They feel comfortable with him out there, he knows how to fit in. And defensively, he can do a lot of different things, which fits into our system.” In the past 15 games, Jaquez has averaged 16.2 points on 53-47-85 shooting splits. He has scored at least 10 points in 13 straight games, the longest streak by a Heat rookie since Kendrick Nunn in 2019-20.

4.

Marks: Lively

Last season Dallas ranked 29th in field goal attempts and second-chance points. This season the addition of Lively has seen the Mavericks move up to fifth in attempts and 12th in second-chance points. Through the first two months, Lively has eight games of at least four offensive rebounds, ranking 16th among all players and first in the rookie class in offensive rebounds per game, ahead of Wembanyama and Ausar Thompson. He recently became only the third player in NBA history (joining Rudy Gobert and Dikembe Mutombo) to record 20 points, 15 rebounds, 5 blocks and 100% shooting in a game.

Pelton: Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder

Unlike Holmgren, Wallace has yet to experience regression from the mean beyond the arc. He’s still hitting 52% of his 3s while providing the strong, versatile defense the Thunder expected when they traded up two spots to draft Wallace at No. 10 overall. Add in 63.5% accuracy inside the arc and Wallace’s 71.1% true shooting percentage is best of any NBA regular shorter than 6-foot-8. (Wallace is 6-foot-4.)

5.

Pelton: Jaquez

Jaquez’s shooting has been the biggest surprise of his impact as a rookie. He was a 33% career 3-point shooter from the shorter NCAA line, including 32% last season. Time will tell whether Jaquez can keep up his 40% 3-point accuracy on a modest volume of three attempts per game. One area for potential improvement for Jaquez is he can occasionally get sped up and try to do too much, leading to turnovers.

Marks: Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets

Hornets coach Steve Clifford paid the ultimate compliment to Miller in early December. “He’s a really good two-way player,” Clifford said. “We execute when he’s on the floor and he’s guarding primary scorers on the other team.” In the first nine games, Miller ranked fourth among rookies in points per game (12.8) but struggled shooting only 27.8% on 3s. In the 10 games since, Miller is shooting 44.9% from deep, averaging 16.2 points. He has four 20-point games this season, tied with Holmgren among all rookies and ranks in the top-15 in field goal percentage on jumpers among players with at least 100 attempts.

6.

Marks: Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons

Through the first six weeks of the season, you could have made the argument that Thompson should get Rookie of the Year consideration along with Holmgren and Wembanyama. Thompson’s 13 steals and 19 blocks in the first 10 games were the most since Marcus Camby in 1996-97. He ranked second in offensive rebounds and was the first player with 40 offensive rebounds through 10 career games since Elton Brand in 1999-2000, per ESPN Stats & Information. Then Thompson inexplicably was moved to the bench, playing a season-low 13 minutes on Nov. 30. That is right: A Pistons team that has not won a game since Oct. 28, who had their effort questioned by coach Monty Williams, moved Thompson to the bench. The same player who ranks third in loose ball recoveries this season, trailing only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Desmond Bane. Thompson also ranks in the top 10 in offensive rebounds. After playing a combined 64 games in the four games coming off the bench, Thompson scored a career-high 20 points in 33 minutes versus Indiana on Dec. 11. He was eventually moved back into the starting lineup two nights later.

Pelton: Thompson

On the one hand, I understand why a shooting-challenged Pistons team feels the need to get better floor spacing from small forward than Thompson (7-of-49 on 3s this season) can provide. Still, this team needs the energy Thompson brings at the defensive end of the court, where he’s one of just 13 players averaging at least one steal and one block per game according to Stathead.com.

7.

Marks: Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors

Warriors coach Steve Kerr has been true to his word since Podziemski scored a career-high 23 points on Nov. 14. “He is going to play. He is going to play every night. He has earned that. He is fearless and connects the game. He plays the way we want to play. The ball moves when he is out there. He is attacking at the right times and is cutting at the right times. Defensively, he is really good. He is a damn good player, so he is going to play.” Since the Timberwolves game, Podziemski has averaged 25.9 minutes, 9.8 points, shooting 41.9% on 3-pointers and ranks fourth in fourth-quarter minutes among all rookies. In a loss at Phoenix, Podziemski joined Stephen Curry as the only Warriors rookies in the past 25 seasons to score at least 20 points, grab 10 rebounds and dish out 5 assists. He recently replaced Andrew Wiggins in the starting lineup.

Pelton: Miller

Long term, I think Miller is going to be fine — particularly given that he’s carrying a heavier usage load (20%) than any of the players ahead of him on the list save Wembanyama. In terms of his value right now, Miller’s 40% 3-point shooting overstates his efficiency a bit. Miller hasn’t been as relatively accurate inside the arc (48%) and particularly needs to get to the free throw line more often to take advantage of his 82% accuracy there. Miller’s 2.1 free throw attempts per 36 minutes are in the territory usually reserved for shooting specialists rather than all-around scorers like Miller has the potential to be. As a result, Miller’s 55.3% true shooting percentage is still worse than the league average of 57.7% despite his 3-point accuracy.

8.

Pelton: Podziemski

Rookies are often judged primarily by how much they hurt their teams, which tends to allow low-usage players to float around the court without doing much to actually help. What I like about Podziemski is he’s always making things happen, which is reflected in his strong advanced stats. His rebounding from the perimeter particularly stands out, allowing Kerr to start him at small forward as part of a much smaller unit. Add in Podziemski’s secondary playmaking and his 41% 3-point shooting and, despite making plenty of mistakes, he’s helping Golden State.

Marks: Wallace

Coming out of Kentucky, the scouting report on Wallace was that his ability to defend would get him on the court during his rookie season. While he had a two-block game versus Utah and a four-steal game against Atlanta, his ability to knock down shots and get to the basket has given the Thunder a valuable reserve off the bench. (The Thunder are a plus-13.3 when he is on the court.) Wallace is on pace to become the first rookie to lead the NBA in 3-point shooting since Anthony Morrow in 2008-09.

9.

Marks: Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards

Coulibaly scored a career-high 20 points and had four steals at Brooklyn on Nov. 12 and was on the honorable mention list when the first rankings ran in mid-November. Since then, the Wizards forward has seen his role (and production) increase and is one of the top rookies not named Holmgren or Wembanyama. In the month of December, Coulibaly ranks second on the Wizards in minutes (28.9), averaging 11.4 points on 56.4% from the field. He is shooting an eye-popping 86.7% on shots within eight feet. Despite a low 13.7% usage rate, Coulibaly is one of two rookies averaging 50% from the field and 40% on 3-pointers among players with at least 75 shots. One thing to keep an eye on is Coulibaly’s impact on the defensive end. Washington ranks last in defensive efficiency, but Coulibaly ranks in the 86th percentile of all wings in steals and defensive rebounding, per Cleaning the Glass.

Pelton: Coulibaly

Coulibaly has already blown by the first checkmark as one of the youngest rookies in the class: 3-and-D competence. As Bobby noted, Coulibaly has been an accurate 3-point shooter and is making a defensive impact without much support from his teammates. Now, we’re already on to phase two of his development as Coulibaly slowly begins to make more plays with the ball in his hands. He started December by scoring double-figures in five consecutive games, nearly as many as in October and November combined (six times).

10.

Marks: Jordan Hawkins, New Orleans Pelicans