A little more than a month into the NBA season, it’s time to check in on some of the biggest additions and how they’re fitting with their new teams with championship aspirations.
Damian Lillard’s trade to the Milwaukee Bucks sparked changes to the East’s top two teams in the title odds, as the Bucks integrated Lillard alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Boston Celtics were able to add the All-Star Milwaukee gave up in return, Jrue Holiday.
The most important newcomer out West, James Harden, wasn’t traded to the LA Clippers until a week into the regular season. Saturday’s win over the Dallas Mavericks completed Harden’s first 10 games with the Clippers, the mark coach Ty Lue said he’d use to evaluate how things are working.
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors’ efforts to maximize Harden’s former teammate Chris Paul have been hampered by Draymond Green’s absences from the lineup and a slow start for Golden State’s starting five. And the Phoenix Suns have barely seen Bradley Beal, acquired for Paul, as back injuries have limited him to just three games — none with Devin Booker healthy.
Let’s dig into the numbers for a closer look on how stars are helping in new places and how that might change going forward.
Boston Celtics: Jrue Holiday
The assumption was Boston would have the easiest time incorporating Holiday into the lineup of any All-Star to change teams because of his malleable game and the Celtics’ collective experience around Holiday and fellow newcomer Kristaps Porzingis. That’s proven the case as the Celtics boast both the NBA’s best record and point differential.
As ESPN’s Tim Bontemps recently detailed, Boston skillfully sidestepped the one possible stumbling block: which established starter would come off the bench. That’s been Al Horford, and the remade Celtics’ starting five has outscored opponents by 27 points per 100 possessions in 191 minutes, best of any lineup that’s played at least 65 minutes according to NBA Advanced Stats. Opponents will surely shoot better than the 40% they’ve managed against the group thus far, but Boston has plenty of cushion.
Coming off his second All-Star appearance, Holiday has embraced a far smaller role in the Celtics’ offense. His 18% usage rate would be the lowest of his career, as would his 6.9 assists per 100 possessions with Derrick White serving as the Celtics’ primary point guard. Holiday’s efficiency is down too, though it’s far too early to worry about him making 34% of his 3s after hitting 39.5% during three seasons in Milwaukee.
At the other end, Holiday has seamlessly replaced 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart. Boston remains a top-five defense on a per-possession basis, and no unit looks more prepared for playoff defense.
Golden State Warriors: Chris Paul
In the Warriors’ case, the issue of having six veteran starters was solved with Paul going to the bench — mostly. Starting with Green’s return to the lineup in the season’s third game, Paul played a reserve role for the first time in his NBA career before starting five games — first because of Steph Curry’s short-term injury and then in place of the suspended Green.
Despite Green returning Tuesday, Paul came off the bench again Friday against San Antonio. In that role, he’s done exactly what Golden State was hoping, bolstering lineups that don’t include Curry. The Warriors have outscored opponents by 4.2 points per 100 possessions without the two-time MVP, which would be the first time they’re in the black without Curry since having Kevin Durant in 2017-18. (Golden State was outscored without Curry in Durant’s final season in the Bay.)
He’s had that positive effect despite struggling to score. Paul’s 32% 3-point shooting is down from 37.5% a year ago, while his 46% accuracy inside the arc would be his lowest since 2016-17. A career-low 15% usage rate has mitigated the damage from Paul’s misses, and the rest of his metrics remain as strong as ever.
Adding Paul has had the anticipated benefit on Golden State’s turnover rate. The Warriors have improved to 21st in that category, which doesn’t sound good until you realize they were last a year ago and 29th en route to the 2021-22 title. Green’s suspension and poor starts for Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have left Golden State below .500, but things would likely be worse without Paul.
LA Clippers: James Harden
It’s easy to point to Russell Westbrook’s move to the bench Nov. 17 as the dividing mark between the Clippers’ 0-5 start with Harden in the lineup and going 4-1 since. The Clippers had already made strides in a narrow loss at Denver the last game Westbrook started and have benefited from a favorable schedule since — both road games came against the lowly San Antonio Spurs — but the change made sense on a process level too.
Through their first five games together, 85 of Harden’s 161 minutes (53%) came with Westbrook on the court. Over the past five games, that’s dropped to 42 of Harden’s 164 minutes (26%), benefiting both players. Terance Mann’s skill set is more complementary of the Clippers’ high-usage starters, while Westbrook has the ability to anchor second units with his shot creation.
Harden is still working into game shape and finding where he fits with the Clippers. Troublingly, he’s rarely getting to the basket at all. He’s averaging just one attempt per game inside the restricted area, per Second Spectrum tracking, down from 2.4 per game last season. He’s taking a career-low 6.3 shots per 100 possessions inside the 3-point line, easily a career low and down from 9.8 a year ago.
Add in drawing fewer fouls (Harden’s 7.1 free throw attempts per 100 possessions are tied with his rookie season for lowest in his career) and he’s become heavily dependent on making 3s to score. When those haven’t fallen, we’ve seen stat lines like back-to-back eight-point outings on 2-of-8 shooting over the past two games.
Moving Westbrook to the bench has unleashed Harden’s playmaking ability. He’s averaged 8.6 assists over the past five games after having no more than six in any of his first five games. Still, the Clippers didn’t deal precious draft picks to just get a playmaker at the point. It’s also concerning that their 4-1 stretch is built more on poor opponent shooting (30% on 3s, producing the NBA’s best defensive rating over that span) than on the expected strong offense. The Clippers are 21st in offensive rating over the past five games.
Because Harden got a late start, the Clippers deserve more time before we draw conclusions. At some point soon, however, we need to see him dominate as a scorer and the Clippers’ offense to click.
Milwaukee Bucks: Damian Lillard
Last week, ESPN’s Jamal Collier looked at how Dame is fitting with Antetokounmpo. As he noted, the biggest concern is Lillard and Antetokounmpo rarely running pick-and-rolls, seemingly the easiest way to leverage their combined skill sets. On a per-possession basis, both Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis are screening more frequently for Lillard according to Second Spectrum tracking.
On the plus side, the Bucks’ offense fairing worse with Lillard and Antetokounmpo on the court together looks fluky. Second Spectrum’s quantified shot probability metric (qSP), which estimates the expected effective field-goal percentage based on the distance and type of shot, location of nearby defenders and shooting ability, shows Milwaukee getting higher-quality shots with both stars than either on their own. The weaker results can be explained by shot making, which is likely to even out over time.
Part of that shot making is Lillard’s own. He’s hitting just 33% of his 3-point attempts, down from 37% both last season and in his career. Lillard remains one of the NBA’s top foul shooters (92%) and his 3-point attempts are higher quality than last season according to Second Spectrum. He is nearly certain to shoot better going forward.
Lillard has been hot during “Dame Time,” a key factor in the Bucks outperforming their middling plus-2.9 point differential with an 12-5 record. Milwaukee is 7-1 with Lillard in games that have been within five points at any point in the last five minutes, the NBA’s definition of clutch time, and Lillard’s 7.0 PPG in those situations lead the league. He’s shooting an effective 62% from the field between 8-of-12 accuracy on 2s and 5-of-13 on 3s and has missed just one of 26 clutch free throws.
Phoenix Suns: Bradley Beal
The back injuries that have limited Beal’s availability were part of the risk the Suns took in acquiring him last summer. Beal has now played just 93 of a possible 181 games since the start of the 2021-22 season. Considering that Booker has also missed half of Phoenix’s schedule to date, the Suns have to feel reasonably good about still being above the cut line for the play-in tournament with the West’s fourth-best point differential.
New depth players Eric Gordon (14.9 PPG) and Grayson Allen (11.9 on 48% 3-point shooting) have stepped in to supplant Beal’s scoring punch, while Booker — when healthy — has handled the point guard role Beal was expected to play. Booker’s 8.9 APG are easily a career high and haven’t come at the expense of his potent scoring.
We won’t find out whether Phoenix needs a more experienced playmaker or additional perimeter defenders until the playoffs. So far, the Suns’ revamped lineup has worked well enough to keep them afloat despite injuries.
