NBA preview 2023-24: Stats-based win projections for all 30 teams

After a pair of trades involving the Portland Trail Blazers sent Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks and Jrue Holiday to the Boston Celtics, what can we expect during the 2023-24 NBA season? My stats-based win projections are back to help answer that question, at least during the regular season.

One of the biggest challenges for statistical projections is how disconnected the NBA’s 82-game schedule has been from the playoffs. Add injuries to star players becoming more common, and team performance from year to year hasn’t been this inconsistent in decades. Keep that in mind when you see where your favorite team is projected.

Nonetheless, statistical projections can be revealing. Mine are based on a combination of my SCHOENE player projections for box score stats as well as three-year, luck-adjusted RAPM from NBAshotcharts.com. I estimate games played based on those missed over the past three years and then make subjective predictions for playing time.

The result is an expected wins total based on average health luck. Because some teams will have better or worse fortune, but we don’t know which ones, the average totals will inevitably be closer to .500 than the actual final standings.

Last year, my stats-based projections beat the market by correctly predicting 60% of team over/under win totals.

Let’s take a look at what they forecast for this season.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics
Average wins: 54.3

Both before and after the addition of Holiday, the Celtics have the NBA’s best projection by a wide margin for a second consecutive season. It did not translate into the league’s best record last year, though Boston was No. 1 in terms of point differential — which is typically more predictive of future results.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
Average wins: 48.6

The surprising leaguewide No. 2 in point differential in 2022-23, the Cavaliers finished just fourth in the East standings before a disappointing opening-round upset against the New York Knicks. With the addition of Max Strus to a core of four key starters age 27 or younger, Cleveland could take another step forward this regular season.

3. Milwaukee Bucks
Average wins: 48.5

In part because Lillard is forecast to play just 67 games during the regular season, the Bucks’ regular-season projection isn’t a reflection of how trading two rotation players for him could help their title odds. As I noted last month, Milwaukee dramatically exceeded its point differential by winning a league-high 58 games a year ago and could drop in the standings while performing at the same level this season.

4. Philadelphia 76ers
Average wins: 46.9

This projection includes a full season (70 games) of James Harden. Even if Harden’s availability and play are unaffected by his unfulfilled trade request, Philadelphia might move backward in the East pecking order because of the growth of the young Cavaliers.

5. New York Knicks
Average wins: 44.6 wins

Despite retaining everyone but Obi Toppin from last year’s playoff rotation and adding Donte DiVincenzo to the mix, the Knicks could see their win total decrease because of health. Only the Sacramento Kings lost fewer games to injury or non-COVID-19 illness than New York’s total of 102 last season, per my tracking.

6. Atlanta Hawks
Average wins: 43.8

Year 2 with the Dejounte Murray-Trae Young backcourt could yield better results for the Hawks, who finished .500 after being projected for 46.2 wins. Atlanta shouldn’t miss John Collins, whose projection is relatively similar to replacements Saddiq Bey and Jalen Johnson.

7. Miami Heat
Average wins: 42.7

Only in the context of the Heat’s stunning march through the Eastern Conference playoffs should a projection in this range be surprising. Miami finished seventh in the East with 44 wins a year ago and actually had a negative point differential. Adding playoff results to my player projections for the first time helps the Heat, but only to a point after the loss of Strus and Gabe Vincent — two key postseason contributors.

8. Toronto Raptors
Average wins: 42.7

Even with the loss of point guard Fred VanVleet in free agency, the Raptors were one of my four teams most likely to improve based on their underlying stats last season. Toronto’s plus-1.5 differential ranked sixth in the East, and that was with opponents scorching the nets from 3-point range, which tends not to carry over. The Raptors also have five players projected with at least 0.8 points per 100 possessions better than average at their position, tied with the Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies for most in the NBA.

9. Brooklyn Nets
Average wins: 40.0

A slide in the standings is likely in order for the Nets, who went 11-13 after the All-Star break but still claimed the sixth and final guaranteed spot in the playoffs by virtue of wins locked in with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the roster. A full training camp with the newcomers and the return of Ben Simmons could help Brooklyn improve as compared to what we saw post-trades.

10. Indiana Pacers
Average wins: 38.6

The Pacers also cracked my list of teams most likely to improve because of underlying stats. After two years out of the play-in, they have a chance to return to postseason competition with the additions of Toppin and Bruce Brown Jr. and the continued development of young guards Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin.

11. Charlotte Hornets
Average wins: 38.0

After losing 55 games a year ago, the Hornets seem to be a forgotten team in the play-in picture. Their over/under total at Caesars Sportsbook is just 31.5 wins. Charlotte went 43-39 with a similar core in 2021-22. Miles Bridges is back, although he will miss the season’s first 10 games to complete his league suspension after a no-contest plea to a felony domestic violence charge, and LaMelo Ball is healthy again. The Hornets project as closer to the top six than the bottom tier of the conference they occupied last season.

12. Chicago Bulls
Average wins: 35.7

The Bulls are counting on carrying over their 12-6 finish to last season, followed by a play-in upset of the Raptors. They also had a strong plus-1.3 point differential. Yet Chicago could regress in terms of health. Their five most common starters all played at least 74 games, while this roster is one of the 10 oldest weighted by projected minutes, both of which indicate trouble ahead with the Bulls retaining their core.

13. Orlando Magic
Average wins: 35.2

This projection suggests Orlando is still a year from jumping into serious play-in contention after finishing 34-48 a year ago. The Magic were much stronger in the season’s second half, going 19-22 over the final 41 games, but the multiyear nature of these projections drags them down compared to that level of play.

14. Washington Wizards
Average wins: 32.9

The cupboard isn’t totally bare in Washington, where a transition year sees the Wizards overstocked at point guard with Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole and Delon Wright, but thin on frontcourt depth. Given Washington’s incentive to add a high lottery pick to the mix, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Wizards substantially underperform this projection.

15. Detroit Pistons
Average wins: 28.9

The Pistons were bad enough last season that they can both be one of the most obvious picks to improve and have the lowest projection for any team. The better gauge of Detroit’s progress is the 3.2 wins they’ve added to last year’s projected total — which ended up wildly optimistic following Cade Cunningham’s injury.

Western Conference

1. Memphis Grizzlies
Average wins: 48.4

All the attention on Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension to start the season seems to have overshadowed the track record of the Grizzlies, who are the only team in the West to win 50-plus games each of the past two seasons. Memphis no longer has Jones to back up Morant, but it tended to win without its star primarily on the strength of its defense and adding Marcus Smart should help it maintain that. The Grizzlies are deep, younger than most of their West rivals, and still likely to rack up regular-season wins.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Average wins: 47.7

I figured Minnesota might have a surprisingly strong projection last season after it added Rudy Gobert to a team that had made the playoffs. Turns out I was a year early. After the Timberwolves went 42-40 with Karl-Anthony Towns playing just 29 games, my projections favor them to jump up the West standings with the development of young guard Anthony Edwards as a key factor.

3. Denver Nuggets
Average wins: 46.4

It shouldn’t be terribly surprising if the Nuggets’ win total falls short of last year’s West-leading 53. As I noted in picking them as one of the most likely teams to decline, they outperformed their point differential and saw opponents shoot poorly from 3-point range. Add the loss of Brown, whose minutes will likely go to recent draft picks, and Denver doesn’t look quite as deep on paper. The last factor here is that defending champs tend not to put as much emphasis on the regular season, though home-court advantage has more value in the Mile High City than anywhere else.

4. Golden State Warriors
Average wins: 43.7

Last year’s preseason projection of 41.9 wins for the defending champion Warriors drew scrutiny but looked on target much of the season. Golden State ended up winning 44 games while narrowly avoiding the play-in. Adding Chris Paul has helped the Warriors’ boost their projection as compared to last year, putting them at the head of a pack of four teams separated by 0.6 wins in terms of projected average.

5. Phoenix Suns
Average wins: 43.5

Give the Suns credit for building out their depth with savvy signings for the veteran’s minimum and last week’s trade turning Deandre Ayton into three potential rotation players. Still, this is a top-heavy Phoenix roster that almost certainly figures to be better in the playoffs than the regular season given the injury track record of stars Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Durant.

6. New Orleans Pelicans
Average wins: 43.2

Zion Williamson remains the single most challenging NBA player to project. He’s projected here for 47 games and 1,550 minutes, which is more than he managed last season (29 games, 956 minutes) but less than his relatively healthy 2020-21 campaign (61 out of 72 games, 2026 minutes). A healthy Williamson could push New Orleans into the mix for the top spot in the West, as we saw through last December. Without him, the Pelicans are back in the play-in mix.

7. Sacramento Kings
Average wins: 43.1

There’s reason for optimism about the Kings maintaining last year’s success. This is a young rotation relative to the other West contenders, and Keegan Murray in particular is poised for improvement in Year 2. Still, Sacramento’s near-perfect bill of health in 2022-23 will be challenging to repeat, which is why it was one of my teams most likely to decline.

8. Los Angeles Lakers
Average wins: 41.5

Expectations for the Lakers are high after their 17-7 finish to the regular season led to a run to the conference finals. I’d still be surprised if the Lakers fell short of last year’s 43-win total barring more substantial injuries, but it’s worth remembering they benefited from opponents hitting just 34% of their 3-point attempts, the league’s second-lowest mark. That’s typically a marker that suggests a downturn the following season.

9. Dallas Mavericks
Average wins: 41.4

Although the Mavericks finished six games below .500, their point differential was even on the season, making this a reasonable starting point for expectations in 2023-24. Of course, going .500 would be an improvement on Dallas’ 5-11 record in games both Luka Doncic and Irving started after last season’s trade for Irving.

10. LA Clippers
Average wins: 40.3

Given the Clippers finished with the West’s ninth-best point differential (plus-0.5 PPG), they were somewhat fortunate to avoid the play-in at 44 wins last season. Add in the age of their roster (third oldest based on projected minutes played) and the Clippers project closer to the lottery than serious contention.

11. Oklahoma City Thunder
Average wins: 39.1

With the addition of 2022 No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren to a young core that reached the play-in at 40-42 a year ago, the Thunder are a trendy pick to make the top six this season. Their projection for fewer wins is certainly surprising, but it’s worth remembering teams that improve by as much as Oklahoma City did (16 wins) often experience regression to the mean — something Bill James termed the “plexiglass principle” in baseball. On average, teams since 2000 that have improved their winning percentage by between 15 and 17 wins out of 82 have won 0.4 fewer games the following season.

12. Utah Jazz
Average wins: 38.7

After exceeding expectations by being in the play-in hunt before trading away several rotation players at the deadline, the Jazz project to beat last year’s final total of 37 wins if they choose to stay competitive throughout 2023-24.

13. Houston Rockets
Average wins: 32.8