NBA predictions 2023-24: Biggest turnarounds, most dysfunctional teams and all the burning questions

The NBA season is in sight — 64 days away! — and if the 2023 offseason is any indication, we’re in for another incredible, drama-filled campaign.

We’re still waiting for resolutions on the summer’s biggest stories: After a single season in Philadelphia, and opting into a final-year $35.6 million option, James Harden requested a trade. Then, a little more than a month later, after 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey announced the team was ending its trade talks for the superstar guard, Harden publicly called Morey a “liar” — twice — during a media event in China.

And after 11 seasons in Portland, superstar Damian Lillard, who averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game last season along with 7.3 assists, asked to be traded — and specifically to the Miami Heat.

Meanwhile, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving begin their first full seasons with the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks, respectively, and LeBron James enters the final year of his contract with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Enter ESPN’s Summer Forecast panel, a group of experts we asked to address the NBA’s biggest questions heading into the 2023-2024 season.

Here’s the math: In voting for the team they project to have the biggest turnaround, and the one that will be rife with dysfunction, a first-place vote received five points, a second-place vote three points and a third-place vote one.

Here are the results:

Note: Our 2023-24 NBA Summer Forecast continues Tuesday with predictions for all the major awards for the coming season.

Team Turnaround: Which teams are poised to make a major move?

Our Team Turnaround vote focuses on the teams best positioned to make a huge jump in the standings. First place? The young Oklahoma City Thunder, with super-rookie Chet Holmgren set to make his NBA debut, joining 22-year-old sophomore guard Jalen Williams and, of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, an All-NBA first-teamer at the ripe old age of 25.

Then we have the Dallas Mavericks, set to debut a full season of their superstar duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, who signed a three-year, $126 million deal to stay in Dallas.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 49 points (32% of first-place votes)

2. Dallas Mavericks: 29 points

3. Orlando Magic: 21 points

4. San Antonio Spurs: 20 points

5. New Orleans Pelicans: 19 points

6. Detroit Pistons: 16 points

T-7. Houston Rockets: 12 points

T-7. Minnesota Timberwolves: 12 points

8. New York Knicks: 9 points

9. Milwaukee Bucks: 8 points

T-10. Utah Jazz: 7 points

T-10. Charlotte Hornets: 7 points

Team Turmoil: This … could get a little awkward

The Team Turmoil vote centers on one factor: drama. Which team, regardless of wins and losses, will be at the center of it this season?

The winner? After a fourth-place finish last season, the 76ers take the crown, the team drowning amid the end of the Morey-Harden partnership, which, for a decade, was as harmonious as any in basketball. Perhaps a bigger question: After the Ben Simmons saga last season, how much more can 2023 MVP Joel Embiid take?

The Trail Blazers, reasonably, sit at second as they deal with their relatively amicable split with Lillard. With Portland willing to wait “months” to find the right deal for their superstar point guard, though, the current standstill might last longer than either party would like.

1. Philadelphia 76ers: 98 points (68% of first-place votes)

2. Portland Trail Blazers: 21 points

3. Dallas Mavericks: 17 points

4. Memphis Grizzlies: 14 points

5. Minnesota Timberwolves: 12 points

6. LA Clippers: 10 points

7. Boston Celtics: 8 points

T-8. Atlanta Hawks: 7 points

T-8. Los Angeles Lakers: 7 points

T-8. New York Knicks: 7 points

T-9. Charlotte Hornets: 5 points

T-9. Phoenix Suns: 5 points

T-10. Golden State Warriors: 4 points

T-10. New Orleans Pelicans: 4 points

What team will Damian Lillard be on to start the 2023-24 season?

After carving out a Hall of Fame career in Portland, Lillard requested a trade just one day into free agency, stating his preference to be sent to Miami to team up with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

One problem: The Blazers, as of now, reportedly aren’t interested in what the Heat have to offer, which is why our panel thinks Lillard will begin the season back in Portland.

1. Portland Trail Blazers (52% of total votes)

2. Miami Heat (44%)

3. Philadelphia 76ers (4%)

What team will James Harden be on to start the 2023-24 season?

This escalated quickly. In the NBA’s latest game of chicken, we’ll see who blinks first. Either way, if both parties hold firm — Harden saying he will never play for a team Morey is part of; Morey stating the team plans to bring the disgruntled guard back for training camp — Harden and the 76ers are in for quite the reunion this preseason.

While the Sixers had periodic conversations with the Clippers — Harden’s preferred destination — no deal materialized. The team’s asking price is steep, sources said, and no teams have been willing, or able, to meet it.

1. Philadelphia 76ers (76% of total votes)

2. LA Clippers (20%)

3. Houston Rockets (4%)

The next superstar to request a trade will be …