Man City’s slump, another big injury for Real Madrid, more

Before we head into the final two-week international break of 2024, the European soccer weekend gave us plenty to talk about! For the first time in his coaching career, Pep Guardiola has lost four straight games in all competitions: what does that say about Manchester City? We also got an emphatic Real Madrid bounce-back win, albeit one that feels like a loss given the serious injury suffered by defender Éder Militão.

Plus, there’s plenty to write when it comes to Bayern Munich (who looked better than their 1-0 win over St. Pauli suggests), Liverpool (who won again), Borussia Dortmund (who hurt themselves in defeat to Mainz), Man United (who said goodbye to interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy with a victory) and Roma (who fired their third manager of 2024).

It’s Monday, and here is Gab Marcotti reacting to the biggest moments in the world of soccer.

It took him nearly 16 seasons and 940 games, but Pep Guardiola has finally lost four straight games. What does it mean?

As I see it, the four defeats in and of themselves don’t mean that much. Losing to Tottenham was in the League Cup and yes, both teams played a bunch of regular starters, but Erling Haaland traveled and was an unused sub. Bournemouth was a bad defeat and a bad performance. Yes, they lost 4-1 at Sporting, but they could easily have scored three in the first half alone. As for Saturday against Brighton? Again, there was potentially a hat trick for Haaland in the first half, and a collapse at both ends late on: defensive errors at the back and 0.29 second-half xG.

In other words, City weren’t great in any of these four games, but at least two of them could very well have gone the other way because individual superstars can paper over collective cracks. Then, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. That’s why performance matters more than results in assessing a team and their prospects, and the reality is that for much of the year, City have been several notches below the standard they set in years past.

After 11 league games and four Champions League outings last season, they had conceded 11 goals. This year, they’re up to 17. You can’t help but point fingers at the defence, especially since his decision to play with four de facto center-backs is calculated to give his front men more freedom to operate.

Everybody has heard the Rodri stats and yes, his absence looms very large. But let’s not overstate it either. It’s not as if Rodri goes out and he’s replaced by traffic cones. Mateo Kovacic, Rico Lewis and Ilkay Gündogan are quality footballers. There’s a scheme in which they can do a better job of filling Rodri’s shoes, and Guardiola hasn’t found it yet.

Further up the pitch, injuries have played a part too. Phil Foden, the league’s Player of the Year last season, has started less than half City’s 15 league and Champions League games. Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish, the £100m man, just five; Jérémy Doku, just six. Oskar Bobb, who may not be a superstar, but at least might have eaten up some minutes, has been out all year. And so it feels like the burden falls on the usual shoulders: Bernardo Silva, who is now 30, and Haaland, who has played 96.8% of City’s league and European minutes this season.

The upshot is a City side that, especially recently, has looked more jaded, less sharp and less intense. And one that has endured second-half collapses.

Haaland himself is another issue. He’s scoring a goal a game this season and nobody is going to argue with that. But we’re also accustomed to him overachieving his xG, because that’s what superstars do, only this year, he’s just under that.

More broadly, it feels like the end of a cycle. Sporting director Txiki Begiristain is leaving in June. Until he signs a new deal — and so far, he hasn’t wanted to commit — so too will Guardiola. There’s the 115 charges hanging over the club: we don’t know how they’ll go, but the worst case scenario (from a City perspective) is terrifying. The summer transfer window brought Savinho (from another City Football Group club) and the return of Gundogan (for one year, on a free, at 34): hardly the stuff of long-term planning, which, given the circumstances, is understandable.

All this can engender a sense of drift, and it’s exactly what Guardiola needs to stave off because the story of City’s 2024-25 season has yet to be written. City are second in the Premier League. They’re two points out of the top eight in the Champions League and, once they’re in the knockouts, nobody will want to face them. After the break, it’s Tottenham at home and, especially, Liverpool away on Dec. 1. That’s when you can reboot your season.

Éder Militão’s injury overshadows Real Madrid’s bounce-back win

Real Madrid took out all their frustration following defeats in the Clasico to Barcelona and the Champions League to Milan with a comprehensive 4-0 win over Osasuna.

Vinicius Jr. brought his seasonal goal total to 12 and reminded you why he’s always worth having around, despite what the pressing/analytics nerds say. Jude Bellingham also scored and Madridristas will hope it jump-starts his season. It’s easy to be critical of the strutting, and he hasn’t been near last season’s level. It’s also worth reminding ourselves that he only turned 21 in the summer and unlike last year, when he played in the hole with the team revolving around him, this year he’s being shuffled around the pitch in Carlo Ancelotti’s search of balance.

All of this, however, is overshadowed by Éder Militão’s ACL injury, coming just seven months after his return from the previous one. There’s an individual dimension to this — first and foremost, you feel for the guy — and there’s a real-world impact on the team too. With Rodrigo and Lucas Vázquez suffering lesser injuries (plus Dani Carvajal and David Alaba already sidelined), Ancelotti ended the game with a back four of Fede Valverde, Antonio Rüdiger, Raúl Asencio and Fran García. Raul who? Yeah, this guy.

It’s evident Real Madrid need to go back into the transfer market in January. Going into the season with Rudiger and Eder Militao as the only fit senior central defenders was already a stretch. (Alaba is expected to return later this month, but who knows what condition he’ll be in.) That part is non-negotiable, because the only other options here are the aforementioned Asencio and Jesús Vallejo, who has started five games in four years and feels like a guy counting down the days to free agency. They’ll also need cover at right-back and a passer in midfield, which is why I still like my Joshua Kimmich idea, but obviously that’s subordinate to live bodies on the pitch.

Oh, and for those keeping score at home, yes, Thibaut Courtois and Aurélien Tchouaméni are also injured (though hopefully they’ll be back after the break or shortly thereafter).

Antonio Conte rages, but Napoli get a very good point away to Inter to stay top of Serie A

Actually, the Napoli manager wasn’t raging about the game, but about the penalty awarded to Inter, which Hakan Çalhanoğlu smacked against the post — his first missed spot kick in Serie A after converting 19 straight. Çalhanoğlu’s mistake meant it had no impact on the game, but it did raise a philosophical VAR-related point: there was contact between Franck Zambo-Anguissa and Denzel Dumfries as the former tried to shield the ball, but to Conte (and me) it seemed incidental and certainly not enough to be a foul.

The referee, who was nearby, gave it and VAR did not order an on-field review. Why? Because the match official saw it clearly, because it wasn’t a clear and obvious mistake and because in Serie A and elsewhere, one of the guidelines given to VAR officials is that if the referee has a clear view, you should only intervene based on whether contact exists, not on the nature or severity of the contact. The guideline exists to avoid endless re-refereeing and because, as we’ve all heard before, things look worse in slow motion replays.

I think most of us would agree the penalty shouldn’t have been given. Whether VAR should have intervened or not is a different matter and it comes down to whether you want to minimize it or see technology used as often as possible.

I can see both sides. In a perfect world, there would be trust and chemistry between the VAR and the referee and the VAR would say: “Hey, that contact looked kinda light to me … are you confident in your decision?” And the referee would trust the VAR enough to say yes or no. But hey, the world is an imperfect place.

As for the game itself, Napoli set up very well. Take the penalty out of the mix and Inter’s expected goals were 0.76 — they were only beaten by a Çalhanoğlu worldie. Napoli didn’t produce much on the attacking end (just two shots on target), but they didn’t need to. Simone Inzaghi served up something different — when is the last time you saw him make his first sub with only eight minutes to go? — but with Lautaro Martínez having an off day, it was always going to be a struggle.

Why Chelsea will be happier with Sunday’s 1-1 draw than Arsenal

Mikel Arteta was decidedly more grumpy after Arsenal’s 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, possibly because of the late chance that should have fallen to Kai Havertz (but that Leandro Trossard somehow took). Recency bias is only human, after all, and Arsenal could have used the three points, which is why after the game he talked about his team needing to “bare their teeth” and stepping up when “it gets dark and difficult.”

This is a bit over the top — not to mention it’s unclear how much of an effect it’s going to have heading into an international break. Declan Rice played with a broken toe, Bukayo Saka didn’t look particularly fit either and Havertz ran around with a bandaged head. This doesn’t feel like a team that’s “soft.”

In fact, for Arsenal this was more of a “can’t lose” than a “must win.” Defeat would have meant three losses on the spin in all competitions and dropping down to seventh place alongside Fulham (no disrespect). The draw — and Martin Odegaard’s return from injury — means you’re third and with a different narrative heading into the break.

As for Chelsea, they’re also third, albeit with the places behind the top two so tight right now, they could also find themselves 10th after the next round. (So, too, could Arsenal.) More telling, perhaps, is that they have four points more than at the same stage last season and they look more cohesive. On a day when Nico Jackson and Cole Palmer were both subdued, they held their own against Arsenal, who are much further along in their development.

Quick hits

10. Jamal Musiala shines as Bayern hardly break a sweat in St. Pauli win: Yeah, manager Vincent Kompany described it as “tricky”, their xG was just 0.80 and they won by a single goal, a gorgeous effort from Musiala. But then, Bayern conceded just three shots (none on target) for an xG of 0.08, with both Harry Kane and Musiala missing gilded chances. It wasn’t domination; it was control. That shouldn’t be a concern. If you’re going to find fault, do it with Leon Goretzka, who had little impact in his first start of the season, or Leroy Sané (also in his first start), who offered even less other than two improbable long range hit-and-hopes. Not sure how often we’ll see those two again in the starting lineup.

9. Liverpool aren’t perfect, but they’re tough and ruthless with room to grow: Saturday’s 2-0 win over Aston Villa was far from routine, but a bit like the resounding Bayer Leverkusen victory in midweek (with the visitors’ line of three defensive midfielders), it proved Arne Slot could overcome a savvy manager tailoring his set-up to stop the Reds … and failing. Villa actually had only a couple shots less than Liverpool and according to OPTA, they created more “big chances.” Villa boss Unai Emery would not have been displeased at how things were panning out on the pitch and yet, Liverpool hung in there, turning two Villa attacking corners into devastating counterattacks, converted by Darwin Núñez and Mohamed Salah, and that was that. Somehow, they never really looked flustered. It feels like they can get even better, too. Alexis Mac Allister is not yet on last season’s level and the chemistry in the attacking third can improve too. On the flip side, Ryan Gravenberch has played every minute of every league and Champions League game this season. He’s done it very well and in an entirely new role. Can he sustain this level? If he goes down, can Slot find a solution? Judging by how resourceful their new manager has been, you wouldn’t bet against it.

8. Koopmeiners pulls his weight as Juve win derby: Tim Weah and Kenan Yildiz will get the headlines (especially the latter with his ode to Ale Del Piero’s 50th birthday celebration), but it’s hard to overstate the impact Teun Koopmeiners had on this game. The Dutchman was their big summer signing (from Atalanta) and while there’s more to come, he gives Juve calm, quality and physicality. The inconsistency that has marked them all season long? There’s less of it when he’s on the pitch. Juventus took the lead, battered Torino in the first half (limiting them to 0.02 xG) and then managed the lead after the break, while adding the second goal: just like grown-up teams are supposed to do.

7. Ruud van Nistelrooy says goodbye with a win, and Alejandro Garnacho is grumpy: Two different emotions were on show at Old Trafford this weekend. First, interim manager Van Nistelrooy leaves with humility and with his resume somewhat burnished. His stint felt Hippocratic in nature: “Above all, do no harm,” and he didn’t: he tightened things up and let the fact that United have better players than most of their opponents make the difference. Let Ruben Amorim do the heavy lift of philosophy and tactics and being the Messiah. Garnacho came on as a substitute and scored a tremendous goal, but did not celebrate. According to Bruno Fernandes, he was annoyed at the criticism he received from some of the Old Trafford crowd. It’s weird to see, but to me it’s not a big deal. He’s not paid to celebrate; he’s paid to perform and if acting like this helps him channel his emotions, go ahead. It’s not disrespectful to the fans though in the long run, the “chip-on-your-shoulder” schtick gets a little old.

6. Xabi Alonso isn’t a one-season wonder, but how he bounces back will say a lot about him: This weekend’s draw against Bochum and newly installed coach Dieter Hecking makes it one win in eight league and Champions League games for Xabi Alonso and Bayer Leverkusen. Coming on the heels of the 4-0 spanking at Anfield, this performance was arguably worse. Bochum had one point and nine eight defeats going into this game. Their equalizer came later, but it was not undeserved, as evidenced by the xG (0.51 to 0.61) and the fact that they outshot the defending champions. A furious Lukas Hradecky said it “felt like a defeat,” while Xabi Alonso said he felt “a sense of deja vu.” Last year, everything went their way. This season is a sterner test, because coaches will have periods like this, when little works. He can embrace this situation because you often learn more in adversity than in periods where you get all the breaks. The many clubs who are tracking him will learn more about him, too.

5. Fonseca’s game of whack-a-mole continues as Milan held as Cagliari: It was set up nicely. Ride the momentum of the Real Madrid win into victory away to Cagliari, who were coming off three straight defeats. Give the 16-year-old phenom Francesco Camarda his first start in place of the unavailable Álvaro Morata and, now that he was off the naughty step, unleash Rafael Leão. The latter two came to fruition (Leao scored twice and was, at times, unplayable: his return to the fold is a major coup… if it lasts). The first did not, as Milan paid a hefty price for poor defending and individual mistakes (like Youssouf Fofana’s back pass). And now, just as he gets to grip with the attack (3.20 xG on the road is a lot), he has another riddle to solve: tightening up a back line that suddenly looks leaky.

4. Roberto De Zerbi is very close to jumping the shark: His brand of football is fun to watch and effective and in his early Brighton days, he came across as passionate, but humble. With Pep Guardiola’s endorsement he looked like a rising star in the coaching ranks. He’s still a hugely gifted coach, but he may want to work on his PR. The sulky way things ended at Brighton — not a club where coaches often fall out — did him no favours, but he’s taken it up a notch at Marseille. L’Equipe reported that upon arriving at the club, he showed his players a photo of a contract offer he received from Manchester United, one he turned down to work with them instead. And after losing at home to Auxerre, 3-1, he said: “If I’m the problem, I’m ready to leave. I’ll leave the money and hand back my contract.” Here’s the thing. A-list clubs, like the ones he presumably wants to manage one day, generally don’t like it when you make confidential contract offers public; they like it even less when you throw hissy fits and threaten to quit in post-game press conferences. Marseille are third in Ligue 1 and with no European football, he has plenty of time to work and chase Paris Saint-Germain. Get on with that and everything will be fine. But if you act unhinged, you won’t be helping yourself.

3. Trust your eyes, or trust the machines? Unpacking Barcelona’s loss at Real Sociedad: Without Lamine Yamal, Barcelona looked flat away to Real Sociedad, which is more than understandable. Most of the starters have played a ton of football thus far, and la Real deserve a ton of credit, both defensively and in transition, as evidenced by the number (2.02 xG to 0.64, 14 to 11 in the shot count and Barca with zero shots on target). But the game was also notable for Robert Lewandowski’s goal that was struck off by VAR for offside. In real time — and on the video replay — Lewandowski’s foot appears to be ahead of Nayef Aguerd, but in the semi-automatic offside recreation, you just sort of see a black mass of feet. Given the positioning of the players’ limbs, it looks as if Lewandowski would need to have massive feet to be beyond Aguerd. Either that or he was playing in clown shoes. Maybe it’s the camera angles, who knows? The odd thing is many of us have come to have blind faith in semi-automatic offside, but machines have margins for error too. Incidents like this sow doubt.