Early NBA contender tiers after an Eastern Conference superstar shakeup

It’s been just two weeks since the Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA title, yet the Eastern Conference, with several landscaping-shifting moves early this offseason, looks tighter than ever.

The Knicks, flush with years of draft capital, finally spent big, landing Mikal Bridges to pair with newly signed OG Anunoby to help defend Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics. The Sixers then, at long last, got their man in free agency, giving them hope that the trio of Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid will be enough to break through. The Cavs made their move Tuesday, re-signing All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell to a max contract extension. The Magic sneakily signed away critical role player Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the Nuggets, hoping he brings much-needed shooting to an already stout perimeter defense.

With those moves in mind, and considering all the ones to come, we examined the entire conference. How close, exactly, are the Knicks and Sixers to the Celtics now? What’s happening in Milwaukee?

Here’s an early look at six contender tiers, featuring all 15 teams – from the defending champions to the ones undergoing a full reset.

TIER ONE: The defending champs

Boston Celtics

Boston president Brad Stevens has been proactive in locking up his team’s biggest names — Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday among them — long term to avoid them hitting the open market. Add two more names to that mix with Monday’s news: Jayson Tatum and Derrick White are set to sign five-year, $314 million and four-year, $126 million extensions, respectively.

The deals guarantee the defending-champion Celtics a massive tax bill going forward, but they also leave the organization extremely well positioned to push for a second title next season and for years to come. With an elite balance of offense and defense, the Celtics are in a class of their own in the Eastern Conference — until further notice.

TIER TWO: Looming threats to the rise to the top

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks?! Believe it. We’re now two full years removed from the last time Milwaukee made it out of the first round of the playoffs, but there’s obvious context that’s missing from that sentence: You also have to go back to 2022 postseason to find the last time two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo was healthy when it mattered most. (And even during that run, Khris Middleton wasn’t available during the semifinal series against the Celtics, which the Bucks lost in Game 7.)

For those reasons, Milwaukee still lands in the conference’s second tier, given the potential noise it can make if it just gets to the dance fully healthy — even as Middleton and guard Damian Lillard will be 34 and center Brook Lopez will be 37 by the time the music starts.

General manager Jon Horst wisely acquired Miami guard Delon Wright too, addressing the Bucks’ greatest need by getting a solid point-of-attack defender who can help cover for Lillard’s shortcomings. A full offseason for coach Doc Rivers will also be very helpful, from a tactical standpoint, after he joined the team midseason in 2023-24.

New York Knicks

New York undoubtedly belongs in this second tier too.

The clear question facing Tom Thibodeau’s group is: Are the Knicks the East’s top challenger to Boston, or are they something less than that? The blockbuster move for Mikal Bridges, costly as it was, made sense, particularly if the team was convinced no superstar was bound to shake free in the next year or so.

It will be exceedingly difficult for opposing teams to score on Bridges and OG Anunoby, who agreed to a massive five-year, $210 million contract days ago. (Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and Miles McBride certainly aren’t a picnic on that end, either.)

Still, it can’t be glossed over that center Isaiah Hartenstein, a breakout star on both ends for New York last season, just agreed to an enormous three-year, $87 million deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder — the biggest agreement an outside free agent has ever signed with the organization. Not only did the Knicks lose one of the league’s best offensive rebounders, big-man passers and rim protectors — Hartenstein held opposing shooters more than 11 percentage points beneath their averages around the basket this past season, one of the best marks in the league — they also saw their depth at the center position take a massive hit, considering Mitchell Robinson’s injury history and the physical, demanding brand of basketball that Thibodeau’s teams almost always play.

Anunoby and Julius Randle figure to spend some time as small-ball centers, but team president Leon Rose will surely be on the hunt to find a backup to Robinson in the coming days.

Philadelphia 76ers

Health is an annual question with Joel Embiid, and now, even after landing the top free-agent prize in this year’s class, injury luck will be an enormous factor in how successful the Paul George Era is in Philly. George played in 90% of the Clippers’ games this past season, but in the four years prior, he suited up just 61% of the time.

Still, the elite two-way wing, who turned 34 years old in May, fits the team beautifully. He’s coming off the best perimeter-shooting campaign of his career, and was one of the league’s 15 most efficient one-on-one scorers — an individual bucket-getting ability the Sixers desperately look forward to after the five-year tenure of Tobias Harris.

Locking up first-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey long term was a no-brainer, and re-signing Kelly Oubre was smart, as was going out and getting wing Eric Gordon and backup big Andre Drummond, who’s led the NBA in offensive-rebounding percentage the past two years.

TIER THREE: Teams pushing to be seen as members of the East’s elite

Cleveland Cavaliers

Now that the team’s brass has convinced star guard Donovan Mitchell to sign a three-year max extension, the question becomes how the club handles the remainder of its core. Will Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen remain together, or will executive Koby Altman seek to make a deal to shake things up? (Kenny Atkinson recently coming in to replace JB Bickerstaff as coach has been the highest-profile shift so far.)

The Cavs, after two straight postseason appearances, are a great candidate for a leap into the second tier. The team enjoyed its best run of basketball this past season when it was without both Garland and Mobley, and leaned more heavily on its three-point shooting. So finding more floor spacers, who would boost the middling offense’s three-point attempt rate, will be key.

Miami Heat

It’s conventional wisdom at this point that Miami almost always punches above its weight. The team’s strong identity and otherworldly player-development helped it reach the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023, truly against all odds.

But how can the organization meaningfully improve the roster, and maximize its chance that way instead of clawing its way as a perennial underdog? That’s been the question for years, really, and it’s still relevant now, as Pat Riley and Co. navigate the team’s current cap situation.

The Heat gave center Bam Adebayo a max extension, which was an obvious step. Jimmy Butler’s extension question is not nearly as easy, and will likely wait until next year, even though he’s eligible for one now. But the team is in a tricky spot: trying to improve the roster — which has been largely the same the past couple years — while having to be cognizant of the tax aprons. (Because of CBA rules, and cap limitations, the Heat might find themselves having to swing trades in an effort to get outside talent.)

Caleb Martin is likely to land elsewhere because of the cap restrictions, and the team could lose wing Haywood Highsmith, too. Losing both players would be a big blow for a team that already lost Max Strus and Gabe Vincent for nothing last offseason.

Orlando Magic

Orlando might have the NBA’s single most impressive agreement of the offseason thus far, having nabbed two-time NBA champion Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the Nuggets on a three-year deal for $66 million.

He fits in perfectly with the elite defensive club, and adds an important element that lacked previously: shooting. On average, Caldwell-Pope has shot better than 40% from three over his past five seasons, a boon for a Magic squad that ranked dead last in threes made and ranked 24th in three-point percentage.

Beyond that, the organization has made deals to bring back a pair of its own free agents in veteran wing Gary Harris and center Goga Bitadze. As Orlando gets deeper into free agency, the team could use a sharpshooting floor general, given that Magic star Paolo Banchero suggested following the season that he’d like to play off the ball more.

Indiana Pacers

This might feel a peg low, depending on how you viewed Indiana’s surprising run to the Eastern Conference finals back in May.

But the Pacers, whose biggest splashes this offseason will be bringing back their own free agents, Pascal Siakam (four years, $189.5 million) and Obi Toppin (four years, $60 million), will have a chance to show they belong in one of the higher tiers this coming season. They have a pair of stars in place, in Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, a scoreboard-breaking offense and a handful of hard-nosed defenders that help Indiana limit opponents’ three-point makes more effectively than any other club.

TIER FOUR: Stuck in the middle

Chicago Bulls

Where else would Chicago be? Knowing precisely where to place Chicago is difficult, because it’s unclear how extensive the organization’s teardown will be. If history is any indication, it won’t be.

Still, major questions remain: What’s the status of free agent DeMar DeRozan? Will the team be able to attach enough assets to a trade to rid itself of Zach LaVine’s contract? Even without the answers to those questions, Alex Caruso, the team’s best defender, is gone, having been traded straight up for Oklahoma City guard Josh Giddey. So is Drummond, the rebounder extraordinaire, who’s planning to sign with the Sixers.

Beyond the 21-year-old Giddey, the Bulls are investing in a youth movement, between agreeing to a five-year, $90 million deal with homegrown forward Patrick Williams and a three-year, $27 million one with Pacers center Jalen Smith. If the team’s lead ball handlers are back, it might be enough to keep the Bulls in contention for the play-in round — again.

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta, a play-in team for each of the past three seasons, has been in much the same boat as the Bulls in recent years: directionless.

There’s little to no incentive for the franchise to bottom out completely, as the Hawks owe their 2025 and 2027 first-round selections to the Spurs in exchange for the Dejounte Murray deal back in 2022. (San Antonio also has swap rights for Atlanta’s pick in 2026.)

Perhaps because of that inability, the club finally decided last week to move Murray to New Orleans for Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell and a pair of future first-round picks. And there is upside on the roster. Jalen Johnson, 22, likely would have placed in Most Improved Player award voting if he hadn’t narrowly missed the games-played threshold. Backup big Onyeka Okongwu is still just 23. Zaccharie Risacher, the No. 1 overall pick in last week’s NBA Draft, will make his Hawks debut in summer league in the coming days.

Still, as it’s been since 2018, Atlanta is trying to figure how to build around franchise player Trae Young, whose elite offensive skills are complicated by his defensive shortcomings. The Hawks reached the 2021 conference finals, but have gotten nowhere near that stage since.

TIER FIVE:Teams with a plan! Or at least a prospect …

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have said they want to bring back free agent forward Miles Bridges, who averaged 21 points, seven boards and three assists this past season after missing the entire 2022-23 campaign following his no contest plea to a felony domestic violence charge. Regardless of whether they keep Bridges or not, the Hornets, who ranked dead last in the league in free-throw rate, desperately need another slasher type that will help them score from the line more frequently.

LaMelo Ball — and his five-year, $203 million deal — and 21-year-old Brandon Miller as clear franchise building blocks for new executive Jeff Peterson and head coach Charles Lee to build around. Mark Williams has shown promise as the team’s future big man and rim protector, but he’ll needs to show the ability to stay healthy to be considered a mainstay.

Still, even if the organization hits on everything it needs this year, real contention may be years away.

Toronto Raptors

By locking in Immanuel Quickley with a five-year, $175 million deal, Toronto now has three tentpole players: Quickley, 24-year-old RJ Barrett and soon-to-be 23-year-old Scottie Barnes, who was an All-Star for the first time this past season.

The team, which for years relied on its defensive length to win games, will need to add more perimeter shooting to the roster around those three in the form of draft assets acquired in exchange for Siakam and Anunoby. Toronto’s three-point attempt rate ranked among the league’s bottom five, as did its success rate from outside, at just 34.7%.

TIER SIX: Committed to a full reset

Brooklyn Nets

In dealing Bridges to the Knicks — and then reacquiring the rights to the remaining first-round picks and swaps they’d sent to the Rockets for James Harden back in 2021 — Brooklyn has completely restocked its draft-pick cabinet.

Perhaps most importantly, though, the Nets gave themselves the ability to bottom out for the next couple seasons, now that they’ll have the ability to benefit from those picks again. And with players like Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith still on the roster, the Nets might not even be done with their teardown yet. After a wild last few years in the star-hunting phase, Brooklyn now figures to take a breath and find its next one through the draft.

Detroit Pistons

Detroit is inking former No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham to a five-year, $226 million max extension. But nearly everything else is still in flux in Detroit.

Executive Trajan Langdon is new to his gig, as is coach JB Bickerstaff. After a historically brutal 2023-24 that saw the team drop 28 straight games at one point, the team is trying, perhaps in a futile effort, to blend veteran talent with its several youngsters. But it’s a tough year to do that, with few truly game-changing free agents on the market. The yearslong rebuild in the Motor City will continue — for years.

Washington Wizards