2024 NBA draft: Debating 30 Round 1 picks, need and value

Our usual NBA mock drafts lean heavily on intel to make projections for the players and the 30 teams. This isn’t that. Instead, ESPN draft analysts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo explored the first round from two differing perspectives: selecting for team need versus drafting for best available.

Of course, the philosophical question of drafting for need versus value isn’t clear-cut. In reality, they work together; situational factors from team to team can lead to drastically different valuations of each prospect. So when both lines of thinking lead to the same answer, it’s usually a good sign.

This mock draft isn’t what we project each NBA team will do, but it’s a useful way to think about the 2024 NBA draft, its eligible players and how front offices might be thinking through it as the two-day event draws closer (June 26-27, on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+).

Givony drafted players for each team prioritizing need, while Woo selected players matched with teams angling for value. Here’s what happened:

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First round

1. Atlanta Hawks

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Donovan Clingan | UConn | C | Age: 20.2

The 36-win Hawks, who have one of the NBA’s worst defenses, could surely benefit from adding the draft’s best rim-protector in Clingan, who might remind coach Quin Snyder of his Utah Jazz days with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint. Clingan, ranked No. 3 in ESPN’s Top 100, could be an excellent pick-and-roll partner with Trae Young, as he sets bruising screens, has terrific hands, can facilitate out-of-dribble handoffs and zoom actions and is a good passer and finisher.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Zaccharie Risacher | Bourg (France) | SF | 19.1

Risacher possesses an excellent baseline at a young age to become a valuable starting-caliber wing who excels on both ends. He also has a strong developmental floor. The No. 1 pick isn’t as clear-cut this year — and Atlanta might need rim protection more than it explicitly needs another wing — but Risacher is the top-ranked prospect for both Givony and me, and he comes off the board here.

2. Washington Wizards

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Alex Sarr | Perth (Australia) | PF/C | Age: 19.1

The Wizards are thin in the frontcourt after trading away Daniel Gafford at the February trade deadline. And with the third-worst opposing 2-point percentage, Washington finished last season as one of the league’s worst defenses. So Sarr would fill an immediate need with his size, length, defensive versatility and rim protection, leading the Australian NBL in block percentage by a wide margin. He has real upside to tap into in other areas as well, flashing ability as a pick-and-roll finisher, perimeter shooter, ball handler and passer.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Sarr

Most teams we’ve spoken with around the league have a hard time seeing Sarr, who is ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Top 100, fall past Washington, and for good reason — his potential high-end outcomes as a top rim-protector who also offers offensive versatility make him a tantalizing swing pick at No. 2. Washington has a long runway to help him develop and would be pleased to see him fall here.

3. Houston Rockets (via Nets)

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Risacher

The Rockets have stockpiled young talent at all positions, but like every NBA team, could stand to add another wing who can make shots off movement, defend point guards through power forwards, get out in transition, and have the feel for the game and unselfishness to operate alongside other good players. Risacher, with a developing frame, has significant upside to tap into with the passing ability he has flashed in other settings; for example, the French Espoirs league, where he posted 4.4 assists per game last season.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Clingan

Many teams view Clingan as one of the draft’s best picks because he has the tools, talent and competitive makeup to be a high-end defensive center. Some scouts say he has a valid argument to be drafted at No. 1, and any scenario in which he falls to No. 3 and onward would make for an excellent value play here for the Rockets.

4. San Antonio Spurs

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Reed Sheppard | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 19.9

The Spurs (22-60) were starved for outside shooting and playmaking acumen last season, making point guard a major need heading into the draft and free agency. Sheppard, ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Top 100, is one of the best shooters in this draft class. He’s unselfish and possesses an outstanding feel for the game. He has the right temperament and mentality to embrace the role of playing off the strengths of a future superstar in Victor Wembanyama.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Sheppard

Sheppard’s elite analytical profile makes him a top-five option for many teams in addition to being a clear need for the Spurs. While he doesn’t have the typical physical toolbox that portends great upside, at some point one has to take the numbers and film seriously — if you project him as the draft’s best-shooting point guard, there’s room for him to build off that skill. Sheppard’s promising trajectory gives him a chance to be the first guard off the board, and he goes to a team that would be excited to see him drop.

5. Detroit Pistons

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Matas Buzelis | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 19.6

The Pistons have some big decisions ahead regarding roster construction and the fit of the existing players they’ve assembled on their roster already. Regardless of the direction they take, adding a tall, versatile, explosive wing such as Buzelis, who can do a little bit of everything on both ends of the floor, makes sense. Buzelis, who is ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Top 100, shows flashes of passing creativity, shot-making prowess and defensive playmaking instincts at 6-foot-10.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Buzelis

To some extent, there’s no such thing as value in a vacuum — in order for a player to return it, there has to be basic synergy in terms of fit and opportunity. Buzelis delivers strong situational value to the Pistons because of his versatility at No. 5, offering a good baseline skill set to build on at both forward positions after making tangible strides with his all-around game last season. You can never have enough tall forwards who can play on the perimeter and space the floor, which Buzelis should be able to do in time.

6. Charlotte Hornets

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Stephon Castle | UConn | PG/SG | Age: 19.5

Finding the right player to plug in between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller is likely a priority for the Hornets, who could use Castle’s defensive versatility, unselfishness and willingness to play a role. Along with his upside at 6-foot-7 and 19 years old, Castle showed he can play winning basketball this season alongside other good players and receives consistently strong reports about his approach. All of Castle’s strengths and intangibles would likely be important for Charlotte’s new regime.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Castle

In addition to being a strong personnel fit for Charlotte, the No. 6 pick is right around where Castle should come off the board. He’s the top perimeter defender in this class, with excellent size and qualities to add value on defense right away as he irons out his skills. You could make an argument for him in the top 5 if you believe he’ll make big strides on the offensive end.

7. Portland Trail Blazers

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Ja’Kobe Walter | Baylor | SG/SF | Age: 19.7

The Trail Blazers are flush with shot-creating, offensive-minded backcourt options in Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, and might look to balance the roster with a 3-and-D type wing who brings shot-making prowess and versatility like Walter. His 6-foot-10 wingspan should allow him to guard all over the floor, and his ability to shoot running off screens, ducking behind handoffs, and drifting into corner 3s is attractive as a 19-year-old who has elite off-court intangibles.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Cody Williams | Colorado | SG/SF | Age: 19.5

Although he didn’t have the freshman season many had hoped for, I’m still optimistic about Williams’ long-term upside as a plus-defender and potential auxiliary playmaker, and wouldn’t let him fall too far down the draft board working off that theory. Drafting Williams would be an interesting home run swing for Portland with its array of young perimeter talent already in place.

8. San Antonio Spurs

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Dalton Knecht | Tennessee | SF | Age: 23.1

Having hopefully addressed their point guard position long term with their pick at No. 4, it makes sense for the Spurs to add another elite shooter in Knecht, who hit 40% of his 3s while showing dynamic shot-making prowess. Knecht, a consensus first team All-American who is ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Top 100, should be one of the most NBA-ready rookies in this class, which is attractive for a Spurs team that surely wants to turn the page to playoff contention sooner rather than later.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Devin Carter | Providence | PG/SG | Age: 22.2

Count me among those who are quite high on Carter, who in my view is far from a reach inside the top 10 and figures to be immediately impactful. I also think there’s a bit more upside with him than your typical 22-year-old college star; he’s an elite athlete who has made strides as a scorer and should bring more than great defense (which, of course, is quite nice unto itself). I’d be thrilled to draft Carter in this range of the draft, and at the moment, that seems to be where he’s headed.

9. Memphis Grizzlies

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Carter

Pairing Ja Morant with another guard such as Carter, who can defend the other team’s best perimeter player, space the floor consistently and do a lot of little things getting on the glass, generating turnovers and bringing nonstop toughness, makes a lot of sense. That was the reason Memphis traded for Marcus Smart, who was limited to 20 games last season because of injuries. Carter, coming off a Big East player of the year season that also earned him All-America honors, can play in a variety of lineup configurations and roles, even alongside Smart, and can help a team ready to return to the playoffs.

Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Knecht

Not a pick Memphis should overthink if it stays put here at No. 9. Knecht is the draft’s most polished perimeter scorer, and our top player who is left on the board after a breakout season at Tennessee. He’s a legit lottery-level player because of what he brings to the table on offense, as a threat away from the ball who can attack closeouts and score at all three levels. The question of how high to take him hangs on how much more teams think he can improve, but this feels like the right place for him.

10. Utah Jazz

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Utah Jazz (via Thunder)

Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Bobi Klintman | Cairns (Australia) | SF/PF | Age: 21.2