2024 NBA draft lottery: Odds for every team and potential picks

What’s at stake for every team in the 2024 NBA draft lottery (3 p.m. ET, ABC) on Sunday?

Even though the draft class lacks star power at the top, each team in the lottery would still love to secure the No. 1 pick.

NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo break down the likely picks, odds and best fits for prospects, including Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard.

Jump to a team:

ATL | CHA | CHI | DET | GSW | HOU
MEM | POR | SAC | SAS | TOR | UTA | WAS

| Average pick: 3.7

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three pick odds: 40.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Reed Sheppard

3. Alex Sarr

4. Matas Buzelis

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 1: Zaccharie Risacher | SF

The Pistons have several internal questions they’ll need to answer before deciding which player they might select with their draft pick, something that will depend heavily on where they land on lottery night. The most pressing is who will be making the pick, as Detroit is searching for a new president of basketball operations to oversee the front office. That hire will have the final say here as well as deciding several other critical matters, such as attempting to decipher the long-term backcourt fit of leading scorers Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey and determining the viability of starting big men Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren together.

Surrounding their young core with shooting on the wing, after finishing last in the NBA in a variety of shooting categories, will surely be a priority. The Pistons might want to take a longer view and select the player with the best chances of emerging as a star regardless of roster fit, but that’s not easy in this draft class. Cannibalizing the existing talent already in place might feel like a dicey proposition after finishing 14-68 this season.

Risacher’s size, perimeter shooting, two-way versatility and role-playing potential could make him an attractive fit, sliding between the shooting guard and stretch-4 positions. His weaknesses as a ball handler and regarding a willingness to blend in might not be an issue on a roster with Cunningham and Ivey already shouldering significant usage.

Sheppard, the best shooter in the class, could be another interesting option with his potential to operate alongside either Cunningham or Ivey in staggered lineups. — Jonathan Givony

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| Average pick: 3.9

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three pick odds: 40.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Alex Sarr

2. Zaccharie Risacher

3. Donovan Clingan

4. Rob Dillingham

Most likely pick if they stay at 2: Alex Sarr | PF

Although there’s not a clear-cut top prospect in this draft, the Wizards have the bandwidth to build their roster patiently as they continue their rebuild. They are in it for the long haul under team president Michael Winger and currently have the advantage of time. If their pick holds toward the very top, it’s certainly possible Washington might follow up last year’s selection of Bilal Coulibaly with another long-term investment in a French prospect, with Sarr and Risacher both viable options.

Sarr’s rim protection potential and room to grow into a mobile two-way frontcourt presence should be attractive to Washington, which cycled through stopgap bigs last season (Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes) in the interest of acquiring draft capital. While there’s an obvious need for shot creation on the roster, attempting to add size and defensive backbone with Sarr might be the more prudent play if they sit at No. 1. He’s not without risk, but his upside is as high as anyone’s in the draft, and the Wizards will likely have more swings at the top of the lottery in the coming years.

While Risacher’s skill set might be duplicative with Deni Avdija and Coulibaly on the roster, it’s a little early for Washington to overthink fit versus collecting talent. Risacher could feasibly fit in, assuming his continued progress as a floor spacer and scorer at multiple positions. If the roster-building vision falls in line with the project general manager Will Dawkins previously worked on while with the Thunder, adding another versatile perimeter player makes sense.

A similar argument to Sarr’s can be made for Clingan as a fit, as Clingan brings a good deal of defensive upside to the table, giving the Wizards more of a true center to build around. His physical presence and room for all-around growth would make Clingan a nice building block for Washington’s defense.

Dillingham would be an interesting wild-card fit if the Wizards are willing to take a big chance on his ability to create off the bounce and try to develop him into a lead playmaker. Considering the runway they have to assemble this team, I could see the Wizards concerning themselves less with the risk, taking a high-upside approach to this selection and hoping Dillingham can take on a starring role. — Jeremy Woo

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| Average pick: 4.1

No. 1 pick odds: 13.3% | Top-three pick odds: 38.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Alex Sarr

2. Donovan Clingan

3. Zaccharie Risacher

4. Rob Dillingham

Most likely pick if they stay at 3: Donovan Clingan | C

With executive vice president of basketball operations Jeff Peterson in the front office and a head coach coming soon, the Hornets have the flexibility to take multiple directions, considering the roster’s makeup and the longer timetable that comes with an organizational refresh and new ownership.

The frontcourt is a natural place to look to strengthen the roster and build around last year’s No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, whose future looks extremely bright after finishing third in the Rookie of the Year race. Sarr and Clingan can each make a compelling argument for being the first big man to come off the board, with defensive impact at the forefront of the discussion. Every NBA team could use a versatile, intelligent, smooth-shooting wing such as Risacher, who also can defend multiple positions. If the Hornets want to take a swing on star power and scoring punch, Dillingham’s ballhandling wizardry and dynamic shot-making prowess could be an interesting fit, even in the same backcourt as LaMelo Ball.

In this scenario, with Sarr already off the board, drafting Clingan makes sense. — Givony

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| Average pick: 4.4

No. 1 pick odds: 12.5% | Top-three pick odds: 36.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Donovan Clingan

4. Reed Sheppard

Most likely pick if they stay at 4: Reed Sheppard | G

The Trail Blazers remain in an interesting transitional spot: They have loaded up on young guards, with Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, but also aren’t far enough along in their rebuild to be overconcerned with fit. It makes sense to infer the Blazers will look for help on the wing or in the frontcourt — preferably players who don’t need heavy touches to make an impact — but they also have a strong need for perimeter shooting that could take precedence over positional balance.

The Blazers could use a bigger wing scorer to help balance the floor and add size to their lineups, with Risacher looking like a natural fit. His shortcomings as a creator might be mitigated by the guards already in place, and his upside as a perimeter spacer and defender could make him quite valuable.

If Risacher is off the board, the decision might be a little cloudier, but the Blazers aren’t far enough in rebuilding to be overly committed to any vets on the roster. They could look to add another big in Sarr or Clingan as a long-term investment behind Deandre Ayton.

If Portland wants shooting, Sheppard stands out among the available perimeter options. While not a perfect fit due to his lack of size, Sheppard’s ability to play on and off the ball and make the game easier for teammates should allow him to play in multiple-guard lineups, if needed. The scarcity of great shooting atop this draft bolsters his case. — Woo

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| Average pick: 5.0

No. 1 pick odds: 10.5% | Top-three pick odds: 31.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Rob Dillingham

2. Nikola Topic

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Zaccharie Risacher

Most likely pick if they stay at 5: Rob Dillingham | PG

The Spurs struck gold in last year’s draft lottery, and this year is icing on the cake while building around Victor Wembanyama’s star power. The Spurs’ messy Jeremy Sochan experiment only amplified the need for a point guard who can complement Wembanyama’s extraordinary skill level, making the draft’s top backcourt prospects the natural place to look regardless of where this pick lands.

Dillingham’s combination of perimeter shooting, ballhandling and pick-and-roll playmaking gives him significant offensive potential to grow into long term. His size and defensive limitations could be mitigated alongside a future Defensive Player of the Year-caliber rim-protector such as Wembanyama cleaning up mistakes behind him.

Topic is the best passer in this class and has enviable size that allows for significant flexibility in roster construction. He can reliably get the ball where it needs to be but has some questions about his perimeter shooting.

Sheppard’s outstanding perimeter shooting, feel for the game and unselfish style of play also make for an intriguing fit for the Spurs both short term and long term. His average physical tools might not be an issue alongside Wembanyama, who could take pressure off Sheppard on both ends of the floor.

Risacher is another safe option in many ways, even if he doesn’t answer any of the immediate questions the Spurs have in the backcourt. — Givony

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(Raptors if 1-6, otherwise conveys to San Antonio) | Average pick: 5.5

No. 1 pick odds: 9.0% | Top-three pick odds: 27.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Alex Sarr

2. Zaccharie Risacher

3. Donovan Clingan

4. Matas Buzelis

Most likely pick if they stay at 6: Matas Buzelis | SF

The Raptors will be sweating out draft night, as they’ll convey this pick to San Antonio if they get leapfrogged by any team slated behind them in the odds (giving them a 45.8% chance of keeping it).

Toronto continues to rebuild around wing Scottie Barnes and should be angling to re-sign restricted free agent point guard Immanuel Quickley. They traded for RJ Barrett on a long-term deal and selected wing shooter Gradey Dick in last year’s draft. It would make sense for the Raptors to eye frontcourt help with this pick, preferably a prospect who can help space the floor for Barnes while allowing them to field sufficient size on the defensive end.

Sarr fits that criteria pretty well, with stretch potential and defensive switchability that isn’t always easy to come by. Risacher would present a long-term wing upgrade, presuming his shooting develops to space the floor at a high level. Clingan’s size and toughness could appeal to the Raptors as a defensive anchor.

Buzelis is also a consideration, as he’d give Toronto additional size, skill and versatility at forward. There’s not necessarily a perfect fit, and the Raptors might want more of a physical presence, but he could slot in nicely next to Barnes long term. — Woo

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| Average pick: 6.2

No. 1 pick odds: 7.5% | Top-three pick odds: 23.4%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Donovan Clingan

2. Zaccharie Risacher

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Alex Sarr

Most likely pick if they stay at 7: Nikola Topic | PG

An injury-plagued season gives the Grizzlies a chance to add more talent to a roster already featuring three significant building blocks in Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. The center position, where the Grizzlies shuffled players in and out of the lineup all season, is a natural place to look, starting with Clingan. He looks ready to play a role right away for a team hoping to bounce back into playoff contention but still has upside to grow into at just 20 years old. His size, length and instincts give him obvious appeal defensively to go with his passing, screening and finishing ability.

Sarr is another option, but his fit alongside Jackson will need to be explored more, as neither appears to have ideal bulk, toughness or rebounding prowess at the center position.

Adding a plus-sized wing with passing, shooting and defensive versatility will be attractive, making Risacher someone who could very well fit into Memphis’ lineups in the short or long term.

While Sheppard’s lack of size might not appear to be a great fit in the same backcourt as Morant, the combination of perimeter shooting and feel for the game could be attractive enough for the Grizzlies to pull the trigger on Sheppard.

If the Grizzlies don’t move up and Topic is still on the board, pairing him with Morant could be interesting because of the Serbian player’s excellent size and playmaking acumen. — Givony

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(Jazz if 1-10, otherwise conveys to Oklahoma City) | Average pick: 7.0

No. 1 pick odds: 6.0% | Top-three pick odds: 19%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Nikola Topic

4. Reed Sheppard

Most likely pick if they stay at 8: Dalton Knecht | SF

The Jazz are in a somewhat flexible position, entering the offseason with the league’s second-youngest roster and having exhibited plenty of patience in putting the team together. Utah has a definite need on the wing, but it also has plenty of draft picks in the coming years and can target the best available talent should it leap into the top four.

Risacher fits cleanly as someone who can contribute on both ends and gives Utah a bigger wing defender, and he also would land in an optimal situation where he wouldn’t be tasked with high usage out of the gate.

Sarr also would fit from a pure talent perspective and could allow the Jazz to field super-sized lineups with Lauri Markkanen (who is up for an extension this offseason) and Walker Kessler.

Utah is one of the cleaner landing spots for Topic because of the team’s need for perimeter size and its lack of a pass-first guard, with Keyonte George, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton all scorers. Topic’s ability to distribute would add a different dynamic here. Similarly, the Jazz should consider Sheppard a strong option because of his shooting ability and unselfish style.

If Utah stays here, Knecht stands out as a strong option because of the lack of true wings on the roster, the constant need for shooting and his ability to presumably step in as a contributor right away. — Woo

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(via Brooklyn Nets) | Average pick: 8.0

No. 1 pick odds: 4.5% | Top-three pick odds: 14.5%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Dalton Knecht

Most likely pick if they stay at 9: Ron Holland | SF

Despite missing the playoffs, the Rockets had a positive season with much to look forward to thanks to the young core of talent they’ve assembled, headlined by Alperen Sengun. The next step is to add more players to complement Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason, as the team showed it can successfully turn the page and play competitive basketball thanks to the addition of coach Ime Udoka.

Shooting was a weakness for the Rockets this campaign, so it makes sense to consider Risacher, Sheppard and Knecht if Houston moves into the top four. There also are questions regarding whether Sengun can anchor a top-flight NBA defense by himself from the center position, so pairing him with a unicorn-type big man who can guard all over the floor such as Sarr might be attractive, especially if the team feels his perimeter shooting will be a strength.

If the Rockets stay at No. 9, they likely will have a group of streaky shooters (Holland, Stephon Castle, Cody Williams, Ja’Kobe Walter, Tidjane Salaun) to select from and will need to see which one can be developed into a serviceable option. Holland’s motor and scoring instincts stand out at this spot. — Givony

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| Average pick: 9.2

No. 1 pick odds: 3.0% | Top-three pick odds: 9.9%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Alex Sarr

2. Donovan Clingan

3. Zaccharie Risacher

4. Stephon Castle

Most likely pick if they stay at 10: Stephon Castle | PG

After missing the playoffs and enduring a difficult season, this is an important summer for the Hawks, who are primed for major changes to the roster. The Trae Young-Dejounte Murray combination hasn’t worked out as envisioned, and this is the last of its own draft picks that Atlanta controls for the next three years. There should be an element of NBA readiness to consider here but also weight placed on upside, considering there might not be a chance for the Hawks to pick in the lottery for a while.

Sarr would be the biggest swing to take at the top, as the Hawks were poor defensively this season, and they are continually tasked with building an adequate defense around Young, whose lack of size creates an impediment on that end. With Clint Capela set to turn 30 in May, selecting a center of the future might be the way to go at the top, with Clingan representing a similar opportunity to shore up the front line.

Looking for two-way perimeter players also makes sense, with Risacher an option and Castle looking like an intriguing fit, particularly if he falls here to No. 10. Castle’s ability to guard all over the floor and initiate as a secondary ball handler would make for a pretty strong fit alongside Young, potentially freeing Castle up as a shooter while also offering more size and switchability on the perimeter.

While there are some questions about where Castle’s upside lies, he could be an ideal complementary player who addresses multiple needs on the Hawks’ roster, particularly if they decide to move on from Murray. Castle could be on the board even if Atlanta doesn’t move up and is a viable target if they do. — Woo

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| Average pick: 10.3

No. 1 pick odds: 2.0% | Top-three pick odds: 6.6%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Robert Dillingham

4. Reed Sheppard

Most likely pick if they stay at 11: Isaiah Collier | PG

The Bulls have been treading water for several years and now are staring at an aging roster with few prospects for improvement internally. An unlikely jump into the lottery would give them a chance at landing some star power that has been sorely lacking, but with no sure things at the top of this class, a complete rebuild might be the most logical move going forward.

Lacking much in perimeter shooting, Risacher would give the Bulls some needed size on the wing along with the upside to develop into a more complete player with his feel for the game, defensive versatility and youth. Sarr could offer some real explosiveness in the frontcourt along with rim protection and potential floor spacing from the power forward position, which would pair nicely with Nikola Vucevic.

With a distinct need also at point guard, either of Kentucky’s guards could be strong options for the Bulls with their shooting ability.

If the Bulls don’t move up, as expected, rolling the dice on a dynamic, high-upside playmaker such as Collier could make sense. The freshman is possibly the best shot-creator in the class, getting where he wants on the floor and scoring at a prolific rate. — Givony

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12. Houston Rockets (Rockets if 1-4, otherwise conveys to Oklahoma City) | Average pick: 11.4

No. 1 pick odds: 1.3% | Top-three pick odds: 4.3%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Dalton Knecht

Most likely pick (for OKC) if they stay at 12: Cody Williams | SG

This pick will only happen for Houston if it jumps into the top four, meaning it’s more likely the Thunder will make the selection. If this pick jumps, Houston’s priorities are the same: finding shooting and complementary players who fit in with its established core.

Presuming the Thunder make the pick here, it’s another opportunity to stack the deck, which is already replete with tall, versatile perimeter players. This could be a soft landing spot for Williams, whose brother, Jalen, has emerged as a rising star for the Thunder after being selected No. 12 two years ago. Oklahoma City will certainly be familiar with the younger Williams and could view this as an opportunity for lightning to strike twice. — Woo

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| Average pick: 12.6

No. 1 pick odds: 1.0% | Top-three pick odds: 3.0%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Zaccharie Risacher

2. Alex Sarr

3. Reed Sheppard

4. Dalton Knecht

Most likely pick if they stay at 13: Ja’Kobe Walter | SG

The Kings narrowly missed the playoffs after losing to New Orleans in the second play-in game. They now will see their third-leading scorer and Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Malik Monk enter unrestricted free agency, which might require them to look for his replacement in the draft.

Risacher’s shooting, feel for the game and defensive versatility make him a fit on any team’s roster. The idea of pairing Domantas Sabonis with a floor-spacing, shot-blocking big man such as Sarr also is very attractive considering Sabonis’ limitations on the defensive end. And if all else fails, targeting two of the best shooters in the draft in Sheppard or Knecht makes sense considering the players already in place.

Should the Kings stand pat, as expected, adding a wing shooter such as Walter who can run off screens and bring high-level intensity defensively also makes sense. — Givony

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(Warriors if 1-4, otherwise conveys to Portland) | Average pick: 13.6

No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-three pick odds: 1.7%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Alex Sarr

2. Donovan Clingan

3. Zaccharie Risacher

4. Reed Sheppard

Most likely pick if they stay at 14 (pick conveys to Portland): Zach Edey | C

This pick will belong to the Trail Blazers unless it hits on long odds of jumping to the top four.

If Golden State is gifted with a top pick in this draft, it almost has to take the biggest swing possible, with Sarr and Clingan both capable of addressing the need for a true interior presence. The Warriors haven’t been playing with a defensive anchor in the truest sense at the 5, and with the roster at an inflection point, grabbing a player who helps immediately and for the long term would be a coup. The Warriors have no intentions of bottoming out, and picking someone who might be able to grow into a role right away or in the long run such as Risacher or even Sheppard would be an unexpected bonus.