Lowe: The injury-riddled East, Miami’s larger problems on offense and why LeBron deserves to make All-NBA

This week’s eight things I liked and disliked include the NBA’s uncertainty index heading into the playoffs, Miami’s crunch-time woes, and why LeBron James — age 39 — deserves to make All-NBA this season.

Jump to Lowe’s Things:
The NBA’s uncertainty index | Miami’s crunch-time offense
Jokic and Gordon reverse roles | LeBron could do this forever
Bulls might lose another Vucevic wager | What’s this ‘L-A-C!’ chant?
First-ballot all-fun team nominee | TV timeout drama

and the NBA’s uncertainty index

With eight days until the playoffs, the East is embroiled in two interconnected storylines: When will Antetokounmpo return from a calf injury, and what seed will Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers snag?

If you asked 100 coaches and executives to name the East team with the best chance of pushing the Boston Celtics, I suspect Philly and Milwaukee would have combined — before Antetokounmpo’s injury — to snare around 75% of the vote. Jrue Holiday once played for both teams; he is now a Celtic by way of the seismic Damian Lillard trade that has yet to pay the expected dividends for the Bucks.

Milwaukee and Philly could face each other in the No. 2-versus-No. 7 series — perhaps a best-case scenario for Boston. The rest of the East is in injury-riddled flux. The New York Knicks at full health might have the highest ceiling of anyone other than the Celtics. Alas, Julius Randle is out for the season. But OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson are back, and if the seeds shake out right — New York is a nice spot at No. 3 — the Knicks could grind their way to the conference finals. Heck, given how New York looked Thursday in thrashing Boston, the Knicks might even make that a long series

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 12-17 since mid-February, red flags flying everywhere, the specter of last season’s first-round humiliation hovering over players and coaches. They caught fire in January with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley out, leaving Donovan Mitchell to orchestrate with shooters orbiting Jarrett Allen. But it’s not quite right to say their season tanked when Mobley and Garland returned. The Cavs won six straight with all four players before injuries torpedoed their rhythm.

They have not been able to get it back. The Mobley-Allen duo is still clunky on some nights. The Garland-Mitchell partnership seems uneasy. Mitchell has dealt with a knee issue. He had not shot 50% in a game since late February before scoring 29 points against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. It is hard to see Cleveland rediscovering its flow without something close to peak Mitchell — who has a decision coming on a max extension.

The Orlando Magic are 22nd in offensive efficiency, falling down the standings. The Indiana Pacers are quietly 12-6 in their past 18 games, cobbling an identity on defense. The Pacers have enough offensive firepower to scare anyone, but upending Boston is a bridge too far. The Miami Heat are mired in play-in hell — again.

All this uncertainty is one reason it was so harrowing seeing Antetokounmpo crumple Tuesday in Milwaukee’s blowout of Boston. This has been a wildly uneven season for the Bucks, but at full health, they might still stand as Boston’s biggest threat. They have blitzed teams by 16 points per 100 possessions with their four best players on the floor. They haven’t had that quartet available much; Lillard, Khris Middleton, and Antetokounmpo all missed games during Milwaukee’s recent losing streak.

The Bucks moved Patrick Beverley into the starting five for Malik Beasley in that Boston win, and it was telling that Milwaukee’s brain trust framed the move as at least partially about offense when it would appear aimed at defense.

The Bucks knew they were hurting their defense when they traded Holiday for Lillard. They concluded their prior team had run its course and needed some boost to the half-court offense to win another ring. They were right. They should have no regrets, other than Holiday ending up in Boston. It’s not clear how or if Milwaukee might have exerted more control over Holiday’s destination, but its thinking on Lillard was sound.

But coach Doc Rivers was onto something in trying to clarify the offense by replacing a shooter in Beasley with a quick ball-mover in Beverley. The Bucks’ offense — their strong half — had lost some governing structure.

On some nights, there were too few Lillard-Antetokounmpo pick-and-rolls. In other games, the Bucks almost over-indexed the other way — turning Antetokounmpo into Clint Capela instead of feeding him in good matchups.

A healthy Middleton is the keystone in finding the right balance. If Beverley can make enough open 3s, his defense might be Milwaukee’s best chance at guarding the perimeter.

; Jimmy Butler — 18-of-52 in the last five minutes of close games — waits until there are four seconds on the shot clock to do anything. He then runs a half-speed pick-and-roll across the center court logo.

Lest you think that was a one-off, here was Miami’s final possession of regulation:

The idea is to take the last shot — overtime as worst-case scenario. In a roundabout way, I guess it worked? The Hawks didn’t get a chance to win in regulation, and the Heat eventually grinded the game out. But you might want to put yourself in position to get a reasonable look in the final seconds.

This stalled-out uncertainty has infected lots of Miami’s late-game possessions. The usual motion and verve isn’t there. No one cuts. No one sets a random flare screen. In one game, it’s Butler’s show. The next night, everyone watches Terry Rozier. Toward the merciful end of that Atlanta game, Butler handed the offense to Tyler Herro — who was brilliant. All those guys can get buckets one-on-one, but it’s tough sledding.

The same stickiness permeates Miami’s overall offense. The Heat of recent vintage have never overflowed with outside shooting. They make magic in tight spaces with cuts, handoffs, and other bits of improvised hoops genius.

In some stretches, they have that. Then it eludes their grasp again.

This is probably about a lack of continuity. The Heat lost two starters from last season’s Finals team — Max Strus and Gabe Vincent — and added Rozier two months ago. Every key player has been in and out of the lineup since. The lack of chemistry shows. Butler and Rozier should have a refined two-man game — a mismatch-hunting machine. They don’t — yet. The Heat miss Duncan Robinson’s speedy randomness; Robinson can jolt a possession to life just by running around.

, somehow duck Antetokounmpo until it’s too late for Milwaukee to recover, and lead all postseason teams in crunch-time offensive efficiency.

But if they don’t get in gear soon, that scenario will remain what it is now: something of a pipe dream.

3. When Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon reverse roles

One of the joys of roster continuity — something that can be lost when stars switch teams so often — is watching teammates discover new ways to win possessions.

Gordon is more than Jokic’s cutter and dunker du jour, though he is that. Gordon is averaging 3.5 assists, near his career highs with the Magic when he looked at his best in a sort of Draymond Green-style playmaking role.

It has been fun seeing him and Jokic reverse roles, with Gordon feeding Jokic easy buckets:

Gordon is a brutalizing one-on-one player. The Nuggets have scored 1.233 points per possession on trips featuring a Gordon isolation — 33rd among 213 players who have run at least 40 isos, per Second Spectrum data. Gordon has the 18th-highest assist rate in that sample.

His post-up numbers are even better, and he has dished dimes on 14% of his post touches — easily a career high, and 31st among 110 players with at least 20 post touches.

His chemistry with Jokic flows in both directions:

What a wonderful player Gordon has become, living out his perfect basketball destiny as a jack-of-all-trades in Denver — the third-most important player on a championship team.

‘ gambit with Rudy Gobert — but they might be saving some cards for the playoffs. Those counters might include more of Gordon in the pick-and-roll with Jokic — as both screener and ball handler — and Murray, instead of having Gordon loiter along the baseline or in the corners.

4. LeBron James could do this forever

James deserves to make an All-NBA team. Two-plus months ago when the Lakers were 24-25, it was fair to ask why a mediocrity should get two of 15 All-NBA slots: James and Anthony Davis. Framing All-NBA that way seems facile — and can be weaponized disingenuously — but it can also be a useful method for testing your assumptions.

It’s absolutely possible for two of the league’s 15 best players to come from a .500 team. Maybe otherwise deserving superstars missed too many games. Maybe this .500 team is top-heavy and those guys had to do all the heavy lifting. Are the Lakers such a team? Their bench has floundered with injuries to Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Christian Wood — plus Cam Reddish falling to the fringes. (Can we rescue Max Christie?) But the other three starters have mostly carried their weight.

The photonegative of this question applies to Jaylen Brown. Should he make third-team All-NBA because the 60-plus win Celtics — one of the most dominant regular-season teams ever — “must have” a second All-NBA representative after Jayson Tatum?

The Celtics might not be deep in the traditional sense, but they are ultra-deep in top-end players, with Brown, Derrick White, Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford. Maybe Boston is really good because it has one first-team-level guy (Tatum) and four of the 40 or so best players in the league behind him — but not another top-15 player? I suspect Brown will make it, but it shouldn’t be a lock.

The Lakers are no longer a mediocrity. They are 21-10 in their past 31 games, with the league’s No. 4 offense in that stretch. They can get to 47 wins, which would have earned the No. 4 seed last season. This year, it means the play-in, and one final drama is where the Lakers will finish — and whether they can somehow avoid Denver in the first round.

James is averaging 25.5 points, 8.2 assists and 7.2 rebounds on 54% shooting — 41% on 3s and 59% on 2s. The Lakers are plus-3.7 points per 100 possessions with James on the floor and minus-5.4 when he sits. They are plus-4.6 points per 100 possessions when James plays without Davis.

James is far from the all-court destroyer he was once on defense, but he’s not a liability either. He’s huge, fast when he needs to be, always in the right spot. Some ball handlers quake when they see James lurking.

He remains a basketball genius who maps and remaps the floor every half-second. In some moments, he reminds of late-career Jason Kidd in that he can control possessions without crossing the 3-point arc. One way James does so is by making the pass the teammate who just had the ball should have made:

You can see Rui Hachimura toggle through his options after catching that Austin Reaves pocket pass. He glances first at Davis but spots Immanuel Quickley rotating there. Well, D’Angelo Russell must be open. Hachimura sees it but doesn’t make that pass — perhaps because he spies Bruce Brown sliding away from James to interfere.

might lose their (second) wager on Nikola Vucevic

I didn’t mind Chicago re-signing Vucevic — now 33 — to a three-year, $60 million extension

But it was reminiscent of Cleveland’s somewhat surprising decision in July 2018 — with James already gone to the Lakers — to re-sign a 29-year-old Kevin Love to a four-year, $120 million extension

The Bulls might be similarly stuck with Vucevic. The margins between Vucevic being productive and something less than that were always thin. Even in his prime, Vucevic did not provide much paint protection and never got to the foul line. His strengths — jump-shooting, passing — had to roar to compensate.

They aren’t roaring anymore. Vucevic is down to 29% from deep after hitting 31% and 35% in his first two full seasons with the Bulls. Some teams let him chuck on the pick-and-pop instead of sending an extra defender at him — and exposing some passing options.

His defense has declined. Good ball handlers go over and through him:

Vucevic knows where to be, but he doesn’t offer any schematic versatility on defense. You have to play one way — drop-back coverage — and your ceiling playing that way is low.

Vucevic is still a very good midrange shooter — 50% overall — but without free throws, 3s and defense, that doesn’t amount to enough in 2024. The Bulls are minus-3.7 points per 100 possessions with Vucevic on the floor and plus-2.1 when he rests. (Andre Drummond got five rebounds in the time it took you to read that sentence.) They are minus-2.5 when Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan share the floor, the third straight season Chicago has struggled to tread water with two or even all three — DeRozan, Vucevic, and Zach LaVine — of its highest-paid players playing together.

There are good stories here: Coby White’s leap, Ayo Dosunmu’s growth, Alex Caruso’s defense and uptick in usage. The Bulls are 28-25 in their past 53 games with LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and Patrick Williams injured.

for sure, maybe the Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets — and almost everyone in the West armed to win, there could be a tanking void. Just saying.

6. “L-A-C! L-A-C!”

The Clippers and their boisterous public address announcer have tried so hard to make this happen, and, like “fetch,” it’s just not going to happen. It is the least creative chant possible — a literal recitation of the team’s initials. Does any other team in any other pro sport do this? Do New York Yankees fans chant “N-Y-Y!”?

Some fans join out of reluctant obligation, but you can tell they don’t enjoy it. Like almost every part of their history, the Clips should bury this at Crypto.com Arena and find some new chants at the Intuit Dome.

P.S.: Everyone ready for Mavs-Clips III? Is Ivica Zubac having nightmares about switching onto Luka Doncic and being left on an island? Is Kawhi Leonard charging up to full Terminator mode in some secret underground robotics lab? Does James Harden know the playoffs are coming? Will the Clippers remember that getting back on defense matters against a Dallas team that has embraced pace?

on your all-fun team

Do I care that the Hawks are worse with Fernando on the floor — that he’s undersized, fouls everything in sight and has a shooting range that barely extends beyond the length of his arm? I do not. This dude is a blast — a pure chaos machine who wants to dunk people through the floor and rip the rim off the basket.

What a week for dunks. The Nuggets earned pole position for the West’s No. 1 seed amid a Peyton Watson and Christian Braun poster party — including Braun providing one of the dunks of the year with his one-handed lefty snap jam on Gobert’s face. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Torrey Craig and Drummond clinched Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor in the Blooper of the Decade category with their synchronized botched backboard-pass-dunk attempt. Just incredible work. Can someone make an addendum to “The Last Dance” that is just 45 minutes on this — including Michael Jordan watching it on his iPad while taking shots of his own branded tequila?

Back to Fernando: He’s actually a pretty skilled pick-and-roll hub, faking handoffs with one player and then pitching the ball to a second ball handler whirling around the perimeter. The Atlanta offense is hard to track with him in the middle of it:

Fernando demurs on a Bogdan Bogdanovic handoff, letting Bogdanovic fly by and whipping the ball out to Kobe Bufkin for a rapid-fire pick-and-roll. Fernando slips screens with Amar’e Stoudemire-level impatience and fury. He sucks in tons of attention — opening up 3s for the team’s spot-up shooters. At times, you’d wish Fernando might mix up tactics and hammer someone with a screen.

Prefer a soft Eurostep-y finish? Sure!

Fernando has filled in nicely for Onyeka Okongwu, who is likely out for the season with a toe injury. Fernando’s plus/minus numbers — which aren’t too bad — would be better if he played more with Trae Young. Those two have shared the floor for only 124 minutes. Young is back as the Hawks prepare for the junior varsity play-in showdown with the Bulls; the winner then advances to play the loser of the 7-vs.-8 game for the No. 8 seed and a date with Boston.

The Celtics shouldn’t care which team they face, and the Hawks — if they beat Chicago — would probably have a better chance of knocking off the heavyweight Sixers or Heat in the winner-take-all game for No. 8 (if either ends up in that game.) But I wonder whether Boston fans might root for Chicago to take Atlanta out. For all their flaws, the Hawks at full throttle are no fun to play. When Young gets hot, their pick-and-roll attack is dangerous. (Let us not speak of their defense.)

The first Boston wobbles in the playoffs last season came in the final four games of the Celtics’ first-round series against the Hawks — which the two teams split. What should have been a walkover became a six-game slugfest Atlanta nearly pushed to Game 7.

Atlanta swept Boston in a two-game miniseries last month. The Celtics were missing key players in both games, but they had their full starting five in the second one. Young missed both games. (The Hawks announced Thursday that Jalen Johnson is out for at least the next three weeks, a massive blow.)

) all out.

8. Unfulfilled TV timeout drama