An unprecedented era of trade returns for NBA stars began in July 2019.
The LA Clippers agreed to trade five first-round picks and two pick swaps to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Paul George.
That late-night stunner reset the market on what teams — squeezed by a superstar trade demand or trying to get ahead of one — might be able to not just demand but get.
As a result, the following years have seen an unprecedented run of All-Stars traded for huge pick and swap hauls.
Three days before the 2024 NBA trade deadline, when it’s likely several future draft picks will be exchanged by 3 p.m. ET Thursday, it remains hard to judge how these megatrades worked because so many of the bills still haven’t come due. And no franchise has experienced the sharpest end of the downside of the risk.
Rudy Gobert and Kevin Durant were both traded for four first-round picks and one swap. Donovan Mitchell went for three firsts and three swaps. James Harden was traded three times for a total of six first-round picks. Russell Westbrook was traded four times, the first three times netting four first-rounders and the last time with
Those records might one day fall. For now, the George-to-Clippers deal holds the distinction for most first-round picks included in a trade (the Clippers also won the Kawhi Leonard free agent derby essentially as part of the package). But depending on the player, a megatrade with six or seven first-rounders could happen in the foreseeable future.
With small-market teams such as Utah, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and San Antonio sitting on massive first-round pick stockpiles (they have 36 tradable first-rounders among them at the moment) and big-market destinations such as New York and Brooklyn (15 tradeable firsts between them) holding considerable assets, there might be no slowing pick inflation if/when bidding starts. Most of those picks have no or very light protection.
In the 2010s, a few risky pick trades blew up in teams’ faces. The Cleveland Cavaliers won the 2011 draft lottery and the right to draft Kyrie Irving with an unprotected pick they had gotten from the Clippers just a few months before in a deal that was largely a salary dump.
In 2013, the Nets sent three unprotected picks plus a swap to the Boston Celtics in the Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trade. Two of the first-rounders ended up going in the top eight, including a No. 3 pick that became Jaylen Brown. In 2017, the Celtics executed the swap to win the No. 1 pick and ended up with Jayson Tatum.
Those two outcomes slowed down aggressive pick deals for a few years. But all that did was create a bubble that later exploded, starting with the George trade. There has been plenty of analysis of that deal because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the primary player in the trade, has become a first-team All-NBA player for the Thunder and George and Leonard have been beset by injuries. However, any evaluation of the trade is still not possible.
That’s because the Clippers, 4½ years after trading for George, still haven’t paid the majority of the draft capital yet. The Thunder control the Clippers’ draft for the next three years, owning unprotected picks in 2024 and 2026 plus a swap in 2025. They also have the Miami Heat’s 2025 lottery-protected pick from that deal.
The Houston Rockets traded Chris Paul to get Westbrook in 2019. Since then, Paul has been traded three more times; Houston swung for the fences, failed and gutted its roster, and is now well into a rebuild. So what’s the true cost of the Westbrook trade? It can’t be calculated because the Rockets still owe the Thunder top-four-protected first-rounders in 2024 and 2026 (plus three future second-rounders).
When the Nets were rocked by successive trade requests from Harden, Durant and Irving between 2022 and 2023, their path forward was cluttered. Harden was traded to Philadelphia two years ago this week, but Brooklyn still has a big mortgage, owing its picks (or swaps on them) from 2024 to 2027 to the Rockets for acquiring him.
This process repeated. The Rockets, having been cornered giving up so many far-off draft assets for Westbrook, made getting far-off draft assets for Harden a priority. The Nets, having lost control of their drafts for years into the future, made getting far-off draft assets a big part of the forced Irving and Durant trades.
Irving will be 35 when his current contract ends with the Dallas Mavericks in 2026. Durant will be 37 when his deal with the Suns ends the same year. Brooklyn has draft picks from both teams until 2029, and both might be retired before the debt is settled.
These situations abound. Mitchell is under contract for one more season in Cleveland (he has a player option for 2025-26), but the Jazz have the Cavs’ first-rounders unprotected or the right to swap first-round picks from 2025 to 2029. The Jazz have used only one of the four firsts they received for Gobert and one pick swap. Like Mitchell, Gobert has one season left on his contract plus a player option.
None of the teams involved in any of these megatrades has made the Finals, at least not yet, although all of the teams acquiring the stars have seen definite improvement.
History can swing in many directions. Winning a championship or even having a realistic shot at one can easily be deemed worth a few draft picks, even if there is some eventual pain attached. Just because a team has a high volume of draft picks doesn’t mean any of those picks will produce a player anywhere close to the talent of the one it traded.
But as Thursday’s trade deadline approaches and teams mull their risk appetite, there’s a decent chance one or more of these deals could become a total disaster. One that isn’t even evident yet.
And — with the sheer number of picks available in the league, and the unrelenting desire for superstars — there might be even more in the offing.
