NBA betting: How Doc Rivers alters the betting landscape for the Bucks and others

As Doc Rivers said in his introductory news conference as the new head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks, it is difficult to jump into a head coaching job like this midstream. The pressure is on to win a championship this season. And Rivers has been criticized for his playoffs track record over the past decade-plus, where he has coached talented rosters but been unable to capture another title since 2008.

Because the Bucks’ goals are championship-or-bust, they have the rest of the regular season to implement and fine-tune any changes that Rivers might want to make before things get real in the playoffs. The upshot to that, from a futures perspective, is that the Bucks clearly aren’t prioritizing regular-season success.

After all, they fired first-year coach Adrian Griffin midseason when he had the second-best record in the NBA, less than a year after firing previous coach Mike Budenholzer at the conclusion of a season when they had the best record in the NBA.

They are all about using the regular season to prepare for the playoffs, so wins and losses aren’t their success measure. This potentially opens the door for the two teams behind them in the Central Division standings.

Per ESPN BET, the Bucks are -275 (a $275 bet would win $100) to win the Central. The Cavaliers are +275 (a $100 bet would win $275), and the Pacers are +1300.

The Cavs are only one game behind the Bucks in the loss column (2.5 games overall), have won 10 of their last 11 games, recently got star big man Evan Mobley (knee) back after a six-week absence, and anticipate getting All Star point guard Darius Garland (jaw) back as soon as this week.

The Pacers sit six games behind the Bucks in the loss column (5.5 games overall) and have struggled in recent weeks with All Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton dealing with a hamstring injury. But during that time, they traded reserves and draft picks for another All Star in do-it-all forward Pascal Siakam. They already proved themselves a threat this season, making the finals of the In-Season Tournament and beating the Bucks head-to-head in four of their five matchups. With Haliburton and Siakam in the lineup together, the Pacers have a legitimate chance to make their own run in the second half of the season and challenge for the Central Division crown.

At the moment, I see more value in the Cavaliers to win the Central than the Bucks. And I could endorse some speculative support of the Pacers as long-shots as well. But, what about the Bucks’ playoff aspirations? What changes might new coach Rivers implement, and how might it impact their playoff futures odds? Let’s explore.

Bucks defense: defending the pick-and-roll

Under Griffin, the Bucks got a lot of wins by simply outscoring the other team with no regard to defense. The Bucks are averaging 124.0 PPG, which would be the sixth-highest scoring season in NBA history. The trouble was on the other end of the court, where the Bucks have a team Defensive Rating (DRTG) of 117.0 points allowed per 100 possessions, 19th in the league.

The Bucks seem to believe, for good reason, that to contend for a championship they will need to improve their defense. They had the fourth-best DRTG last season, and the 10th-best when they won the championship in 2020-21. They still start 2019-20 Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo and 2022-23 DPoY runner up Brook Lopez in the frontcourt. Even with Jrue Holiday no longer on the roster, there is no excuse for the team defense to be so poor.

The Bucks have particularly struggled in defending the opponents’ pick and roll, the most common offensive set in the NBA. According to Second Spectrum, all three top-of-the-rotation bigs of Bobby Portis (1.08 points allowed per chance, up from 0.97 last season), Lopez (0.99 points allowed per chance, up from 0.94 last season) and Giannis (0.98 points allowed per chance, up from 0.92 last season) are below league average as the defenders of on-ball screeners, solidly worse than last season.

Enter Doc Rivers.

In his previous coaching stints, Rivers’ 76ers ranked in the top-10 in DRTG in two of three seasons, the Clippers in three of seven and the Celtics in each of his last six seasons at the helm. When Rivers’ Celtics won the 2007-08 NBA Championship, they had the top defense in the league and one of the most dominant in NBA history. While there may be questions about Rivers’ playoffs track record, there is no doubt that his teams had traditionally been strong on defense.

Defense is as much about effort and scheme as it is talent, perhaps more-so. Schematically, there have been questions about, for example, how the Bucks’ bigs should defend on-ball picks (e.g. drop coverage vs show vs switch, etc.).

There are still ongoing questions about how the Bucks make up for swapping one of the best defensive guards in the league in Holiday to a below average defender in Damian Lillard. And the players’ energy allocation between offense and defense is another key factor for defensive output. These questions are now up to Rivers to solve, but if he does so successfully and returns the Bucks to their traditional perch as a strong defensive team it could pay major dividends come the playoffs.

Bucks Offense: more pick-and-roll

Another of Rivers’ strengths is managing dominant personalities and getting them to not just perform together, but to perform with synergy. Last season, he helped former MVP James Harden find a role that maximized his mutual benefit with Joel Embiid, who would win last season’s award.

At previous stops, Rivers helped maximize Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and before that Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. This season, he will need to work his magic to get Antetokounmpo and Lillard maximized next to one another.

The team offense is strong, but when watching the Bucks this season, the sense is that Giannis and Lillard more take turns attacking off the dribble as opposed to really making one another better on a consistent basis. And they could. If maximized, Giannis and Lillard have the potential to be one of the most synergistic, potent 1-2 punches on offense in league history.

For Rivers, the most effective way to facilitate this may be to have them run more two-man game on offense. And what better way than to get them to run the pick-and-roll more consistently? With a wrinkle, either of them could be the pick-setter and either the ball-handler in this scenario.

Lillard has long been one of the most effective high-volume pick users in the league. According to Second Spectrum, last season Lillard used 49.2 picks per 100 possessions, eighth in the league among the 112 players to utilize at least 500 picks on the season. He produced 1.12 points per chance, number one in the league (min 500 picks used). Lillard is still very strong this season, producing 1.09 points per chance, fifth in the league (min 250 picks used).

But a couple of points: 1) Lillard is only using 42.0 picks per 100 possessions this season, more than 17% down from last season. And 2) when Giannis is the one setting the pick for Lillard (happened 416 times so far), Lillard is producing 1.14 points per chance, a mark that would again be the best in the NBA (min 250 picks used). Because, how could it not be? Lillard is on the short list of most dangerous scorers in the league with the ball in his hands, but if the defense gets imbalanced at all trying to get out on him you’re talking Giannis with a runway to the rim. Yikes.

Now, reverse it. Giannis is third on the Bucks in picks used as the ball-handler this season. Per Second Spectrum, three teammates have set at least 65 on-ball screens for Giannis this season: two centers (Lopez 160, and Portis 66) and one perimeter shooter (Pat Connaughton, 66).

Unsurprisingly, the best outcome from those three is when Connaughton sets the screen for Giannis; the result is 1.11 points per chance. That mark would also rank top-5 in the NBA. And it works because, how could it be defended? Both the big and the little defender would have to go with a driving Giannis, and he would still be able to beat them to the rim and finish a good percentage of the time. And if they do stop him and he kicks it out, it’s a wide-open look for an excellent 3-point shooter in Connaughton. Now, imagine it’s Lillard, and not Connaughton, getting those wide-open looks on a regular basis.

A strong argument can be made that Lillard and Giannis running the pick-and-roll/pop should be something that happens almost every possession. If Rivers implements that change, it could be trouble for the rest of the league.

Timing and futures

While I may find more value in the Cavaliers and Pacers than the Bucks to win the Central Division, I do see the Bucks as potential value for the playoffs.