India play Syria in their final group game at the AFC Asian Cup on Tuesday at the Al Bayt Stadium, where any result other than a win will result in their elimination from the competition.

India haven’t scored at all in this tournament so far, while Syria have conceded only one goal in the tournament, so the magnitude of the task facing Igor Stimac’s side cannot be understated.

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As things stand

Even if India do beat Syria, they are not guaranteed to qualify for the next round, as they cannot finish in the top two of Group B, with Australia and Uzbekistan having six and four points from their first two games respectively.

Only four of the best third-placed teams from the six groups will qualify for the next round, so India need to win and potentially win by enough to resurrect their poor goal difference of -5 after the first two games.

Ranking of third-placed teams as it stands:

How can India qualify?

Obviously, all of the below scenarios only come into play if India beat Syria (by any scoreline). A draw or loss will mean they’ll finish fourth, just like in 2019, albeit with fewer points. Here’s a look at what needs to happen in each of the other groups for India to qualify as one of those four best third-placed teams:

Group A

With Tajikistan beating Lebanon and Qatar defeating China in the final round of fixtures, Group A finished with China in third place on two points – and then India would overtake them with a win.

Group C

Palestine and Hong Kong face off in their last game with the former potentially even eyeing second place, based on the result in the other game between UAE and Iran. Palestine took a point off UAE, while Hong Kong haven’t really threatened, so they will fancy their chances in that game. Should Palestine win, it is guaranteed that Group C’s third-placed team will be ranked above India.

Group D

Indonesia are rank outsiders against a hurting Japanese side who have just come off a loss to Iraq, and there could potentially be some damage done to their goal difference, if the Japanese find their groove. If India win by one goal and Indonesia lose by four, that would take India above Indonesia, but Vietnam could have something to say, as they could beat Iraq in their last group game and finish third as well. The best set of results for India from here would be a big win for Japan and Iraq avoiding defeat against Vietnam.

Group E

Bahrain currently sit in third place, above Malaysia, who need a miracle to qualify, almost like India. Bahrain play Jordan, who have played some rousing football at this tournament so far. A point for Bahrain will take them through. India would like a Jordanian win and Korea avoiding defeat against Malaysia.

Group F

Oman and Kyrgyzstan, currently third and fourth, face off in the last group game. An Omani win would mean Group F’s third-placed team (whether it’s them or Thailand) can’t be caught by India. A Kyrgyz win following an Indian win would mean it would boil down to goal difference between those two sides. So ideally for India, Oman and Kyrgyzstan would play out a draw, so that neither team can get to three points, which Stimac’s men would if they beat Syria.