The start of the 2023-24 NBA season has had a little something for everyone.
From Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren battling for the early lead in the Rookie of the Year race to Nikola Jokic reminding everyone why the title runs through Denver until further notice, big men have dominated the early storylines.
Meanwhile, Tyrese Maxey taking over in Philadelphia has proven the 76ers will be just fine in the post-James Harden era, while LeBron James is redefining what players can be capable of in Year 21.
It has been a historic and memorable beginning during the first month of the season so what better time than now to check in on the NBA award front-runners.
Our NBA insiders share the leaders for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year.
Who is your way-too-early pick for MVP?
Ramona Shelburne:
Ohm Youngmisuk: Had Jokic not sounded or played like a guy who didn’t want anything to do with the MVP race or discussion in the last month of the 2022-23 regular season, we very well could be talking about Jokic going for four MVPs in a row. Even without an injured Jamal Murray, Jokic has shown no signs of slowing down. Entering Tuesday, Jokic averaged a career-high 27.4 points to go with 13.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists. There’s no defense he hasn’t seen or beaten. The only thing that can slow down Jokic is the refs, who ejected him against the Detroit Pistons on Monday night.
Kevin Pelton: There has been no championship hangover for Jokic, who is averaging a career high in scoring with little drop-off in his rebounding and playmaking. Again, Denver is dominant with Jokic on the court (plus-11.3 net rating according to NBA Advanced Stats) and leaks points with him on the bench (minus-5.7 per 100 possessions). If Jokic keeps playing like this, there’s no need to overthink the MVP race.
Andrew Lopez: Two-time MVP Jokic has been without Murray for most of the young season, but that hasn’t slowed him down as the Nuggets look to win another NBA championship. Jokic already has five triple-doubles this season (including a 26-point, 18-assist, 16-rebound effort against the New Orleans Pelicans), and the rest of the league has combined for seven.
Tim Bontemps: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I also considered Edwards here. Yes, Jokic is fantastic and easily could be the MVP again this season. But given that both Oklahoma City and Minnesota are vastly better with Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards on the court (12 points better for Gilgeous-Alexander, and 17 points for Edwards), and they reside in the same neighborhood of the standings as the defending champs, this is a combination of recognizing what these two young stars are doing and pointing out the formula for which someone besides Jokic could win the award.
Who is your way-too-early pick for Rookie of the Year?
Youngmisuk: It has been a little bit more of a roller coaster than expected early on, but Victor Wembanyama should get more comfortable with each game he plays. Considering he already has career highs of 38 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists and eight blocks in different games, it will be scary when Wembanyama does start to find his comfort level. Can the San Antonio Spurs remain competitive enough to keep him on the floor in games to win Rookie of the Year?
Lopez: After a furious start to the season by Wembanyama, he and the Spurs have cooled down while Chet Holmgren and the Oklahoma City Thunder have pushed their way close to the top of the Western Conference standings. But Wembanyama has done more with less to get the ever-so-slight nod here. Holmgren’s shot to send the Nov. 18 game against the Golden State Warriors to overtime was incredible, but Wembanyama’s fourth-quarter performance against the Phoenix Suns on Nov. 2 (38 points, shooting 10-of-12 in a late 12-0 run) stands out as the best rookie performance this season.
Bontemps: Holmgren. Both Holmgren and Wembanyama are putting up great individual numbers, but that Holmgren is playing center full time, and doing so successfully, is one of the biggest developments this season because of what it means long term for the Thunder. That the numbers are this close while Holmgren is driving winning in the way he is — even if their circumstances are quite different — makes him the clear choice a month in.
Pelton: Holmgren topped the rookie rankings ESPN’s Bobby Marks and I did last week, and that was before he put up 36 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in last Saturday’s overtime win over the Warriors, including the tying 3 to force overtime.
Shelburne: Holmgren. It’s hard to imagine he’ll keep up these shooting numbers: forget 50-40-90, Holmgren is hitting 56% percent of his field goals, 46% percent of his 3s and 91% percent of his free throws! But even if he stays close to those numbers, his competitiveness, defensive prowess and overall talent should catapult him to this award — and the Thunder back into the playoffs.
Who is your way-too-early pick for Defensive Player of the Year?
Youngmisuk: Mitchell Robinson is the defensive anchor of the New York Knicks, league leaders as of Tuesday in opponents points per game this season (105.8). He is fifth in rebounding at 11.6 per game, and his blocks likely will go up as the season progresses. He is disruptive with his length and ability to deflect passes, and he should be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year if the Knicks keep up their league-leading stinginess.
Pelton: After a down first season in Minnesota, Rudy Gobert’s presence has remade the Timberwolves’ defense in the image of his former Utah Jazz units. Among players who have defended at least four shots per game inside 5 feet, only the Charlotte Hornets’ Nick Richards has held opponents to a lower percentage than Gobert’s 49%, according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. And Gobert’s rebounding is a key factor in Minnesota ranking in the top 10 on the defensive glass for the first time in a decade.
Bontemps: Minnesota is the best defensive team in the league through the first month of the season, which is a clear sign that Gobert has returned to the same level of dominance at that end of the court he resided at throughout his tenure with the Jazz. Physically, Gobert looks like a different player than he did last season, and the results have followed.
Shelburne: Is this the year Anthony Davis, a player universally recognized as one of the best defenders in the league, finally gets that official recognition? It will depend on his health and availability. Davis hasn’t played the requisite 65 games since the 2017-18 season for the Pelicans. But Davis, with his league-leading 3.3 blocks per game, appears to covet the award after having discussed it in numerous interviews thus far.
Lopez: The Pelicans have been chanting “Not on Herb” for three seasons now as Herbert Jones has continued to excel in drawing the opposing team’s toughest defensive assignment every night. Jones has missed three games, but when he returned last week, the Pelicans were able to rattle off wins against the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. After the Nuggets game, Pelicans coach Willie Green noted the wins came after Jones’ return. Jones is averaging 2.0 steals and 1.6 blocks per game. The last person to do that over a full season was Shawn Marion in 2005-06.
Who is your way-too-early pick for Most Improved Player?
Youngmisuk: With James Harden in Los Angeles, Tyrese Maxey has grabbed the lead guard role in Philadelphia and made the most of it. Averaging 26.8 points entering Tuesday, Maxey’s scoring might get even better as the season progresses. Perhaps Brooklyn’s Cam Thomas can return from injury to challenge for Most Improved Player, but Maxey already has a 50-point game and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get another.
Shelburne: Maxey. You can do any number of breakdowns on whether and why the Sixers have played better with Maxey in the lead guard role instead of the disgruntled Harden. But this is not simply a case of the always-sunny Maxey rescuing Philly from its latest toxic situation. It’s because he has worked on his game and grown by leaps and bounds. He changes pace better, has improved footwork and, yes, learned Harden’s classic step-back 3-pointer. He has also more than doubled his assists (3.5 to 7.1) and net rating (5.4 to 11.5) from last season.
Pelton: Scottie Barnes. We’ll see how durable Barnes’ improvement to 39% beyond the arc proves after hitting 29% of his 3s in his first two seasons, but that development has helped him make the leap at age 22. Barnes’ stats are up in virtually every category, and he’s playing at an All-Defensive level in addition to becoming Toronto’s leading scorer and second-leading assister.
Lopez: Barnes is slowly staking his claim as “The Guy” in Toronto. For some, Barnes is making the jump many thought he would in his sophomore campaign after winning Rookie of the Year in 2021-22. The only other players in NBA history to average 20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and at least 1 block and 1 steal per game — as Barnes is doing now — are Larry Bird (1984-85), Kevin Garnett (2002-03) and LeBron James (2021-22).
Bontemps: Maxey. Both Barnes and Houston’s Alperen Sengun are worthy choices, but Maxey has emerged into full-blown stardom in Philadelphia during a time when the 76ers desperately needed an answer for who to pair long term with reigning MVP Joel Embiid. His improvement has completely changed the paradigm about what’s ahead for the 76ers.
Tyrese Maxey joins “NBA Today” to discuss his 50-point performance vs. the Pacers and his relationship with Joel Embiid.
Who is your way-too-early pick for Sixth Man of the Year?
Lopez: Bobby Portis finished third in the voting for sixth man last season and is picking up where he left off. The raw numbers have taken a little dip (14.1 to 13.1 points per game and rebounding from 9.6 to 6.5 per game), but his impact remains the same. The Bucks have a plus-10.4 net rating when Portis is on the court and a minus-2.9 net rating when he sits.
Youngmisuk: Tim Hardaway Jr. has started the season scoring in double-digits in 13 of his first 14 games, averaging 18.2 points and 40.5% shooting from behind the 3-point arc. Hardaway has been streaky before, but if he can keep this up, he could be the first Mavericks player to take home Sixth Man of the Year since Jason Terry in 2009.
Bontemps: Immanuel Quickley. My pick to win the award last year, Quickley is averaging 15.4 points per game, and New York is seven points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the court compared to when he’s on the bench. If he keeps playing that way and the Knicks wind up in the top four in the East, the path is there for him to walk away with this award this time around.
Pelton: Alex Caruso. Realistically, I know Caruso has no chance to win while averaging 9.8 PPG on a below-.500 team, but it’s only because of Caruso’s elite defense that the Chicago Bulls aren’t even further down the East standings. With him on the court, Chicago allows 8.9 fewer points per 100 possessions, which isn’t the product of shooting luck. We so often talk about how role players need shot creators around them. Given how bad Bulls lineups have been without Caruso the past two seasons, it’s worth remembering those shot-creators need players such as Caruso around them to succeed as well.
Shelburne: Austin Reaves. We’re acknowledging this is way too early, right? But the Los Angeles Lakers are 5-1 since Reaves moved from a starting role to the bench, and he seems to have regained the form that made him a bright spot on an otherwise disappointing Team USA squad this summer. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists in those six games — the kind of all-around production the Lakers had in mind when they signed him to a long-term deal this offseason.
