Is Arsenal’s Saliba the best centre-back in the world?

In the voting for the 2019 Ballon d’Or, Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk lost out to Barcelona forward Lionel Messi by just seven votes. While defenders rarely win the award (Fabio Cannavaro, in 2006, remains the only player to have done so in the past 25 years) the voting told us what we already knew: that Van Dijk was best centre-back in world football at the time.

Van Dijk suffered an ACL injury against Everton the following year and, ever since, no player has put forward a watertight case to be considered the top performer in that position. But now a few new names have entered the debate from across Europe’s top leagues, one of which is Arsenal’s William Saliba.

Despite being just 22 years old, in a position group famed for reaching its peak in the late 20s and requiring experience to perfect, Saliba’s performance levels since his breakthrough at Arsenal in the 2022-23 season suggest he deserves recognition.

But he was not included in the final 30-man list for year’s Ballon d’Or voting — beaten by Manchester City’s Rúben Dias (30th) and Josko Gvardiol (25th), then Bayern Munich’s Kim Min-Jae (22nd) — which was won by Messi again.

So is he the best centre-back in the world? And if not, who is?

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A rapid rise

Saliba may be young, but he’s experienced for his age. After making the breakthrough as a teenager at Ligue 1 side Saint-Étienne in 2018, he moved to Arsenal for around €30 million a year later, returned to the French club on loan, and more loan spells at Nice and Marseille followed before he was handed a chance to shine at the Emirates last season.

To date he has played 168 times domestically and clocked up 118 full 90-minute matches at the top level — as well as 10 games for France since making his debut in March 2022 — which is essentially three Premier League seasons. Consider how abnormal that is. Centre-backs usually spend their early years earning their place at a lower level, yet Saliba was playing first-team football in Ligue 1 at 17.

With all that under his belt, it’s no wonder he stepped up so easily in the preseason campaign of summer 2022, wowing anyone who was keeping track of Arsenal’s friendlies. “Ridiculous” was a word used frequently to describe him, and those who didn’t know about him would soon find out. In Arsenal’s Premier League opener, a 2-0 win away to Crystal Palace, Saliba executed an immense slide tackle on Wilfried Zaha in the penalty box that saw jaws drop across north London.

By Christmas, the rest of the world had taken note: Arsenal were top of the league, and while signing left-back Oleksandr Zinchenko and striker Gabriel Jesus from Manchester City was clearly a key factor in that, so was the introduction of Saliba.

His incredible one-vs.-one and recovery defending became a weekly treat for fans, and it enabled Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta to utilise a high defensive line and aggressive pressing strategy that swamped opponents. The Frenchman’s incredible calm and composure in dealing with passes played into the channels stood out. No matter the opponent, big or small, he would win the ball, calmly turn around and start dribbling the other way.

The composure that underlined his play was also astounding: he dealt with anything thrown his way with visible ease, rarely looking stretched or strained. Just four bookings in 27 league starts in 2022-23 was another signal that very little could put him off balance.

But a back injury in March saw him miss the final 11 Premier League games as the title slipped from Arsenal’s grasp and into the hands of the relentless Manchester City. Without him, everything suffered; Arsenal couldn’t build from the back as well, couldn’t play as high a defensive line and looked vulnerable all of a sudden. His replacement, Rob Holding, struggled and it was clear that Saliba’s absence cost the Gunners dearly.

Fit and healthy again this season, he has played every minute of Arsenal’s Premier League campaign and is yet to be dribbled past — a stat that only Liverpool’s Van Dijk can match. With his first three Champions League games under his belt, Saliba has looked solid, standing out against Sevilla in particular for his composure in tackling and then carrying the ball forward.

The youngster will only improve with experience, but it’s fair to ask what many of the Arsenal fans are asking. Is there anyone better right now?

Nobody is perfect

It’s important to acknowledge that Saliba is not perfect. No players are, let alone 22-year-olds. And while you don’t have to be perfect to be the best in your position, there are some missing elements to his game … and they feel like pretty big ones.

Chief among them is a long, raking pass that switches the point of emphasis in a game, or releases teammates in behind the opposition. Van Dijk had it in his pomp, as did Juventus’ Leonardo Bonucci, Bayern Munich’s Jérôme Boateng and Man City’s Aymeric Laporte, and it’s still present in Sevilla star Sergio Ramos’ game even at age 37. Ramos and Saliba shared a pitch last week in the Champions League, and every perfect switch pass the former played hammered home the fact that this is not a weapon Saliba has.

That’s not to say he’s a poor passer — not by any means. His progressive passing (68th percentile across Europe) is good and his short passing is excellent, but there’s something missing. He’s only in the 11th percentile for long passes attempted (5.69 per 90), and while that may be tactically prescribed by Arteta to a degree, you can see his passes don’t have that driven nature to them that sets the greatest players apart in this field.

Another area he doesn’t sparkle in is aerial duels, where he has won an average of 58.4% in his career. Like with his long passing, the criticism must be tempered because Arsenal’s possession-based style means he’s simply not involved in too many of them (just 24 across 10 league games this season), but historically he never has been a hugely dominant figure in the air.

Due to his age, Saliba is often played alongside a bigger, more physically robust partner who has mopped up a larger share of the action — a role Gabriel plays for Arsenal. When Saliba does engage, it’s to an average level. For context, a 50% aerial win rate is considered concerningly low for a centre-back; the very best can eclipse the 80% mark (Van Dijk has 73.9%).

Finally, and this one is truly outside of his control, Saliba has zero experience at the sharp end of football’s biggest tournaments, or in high-stakes moments. He had never played in the Champions League until this season, injury robbed him of involvement in the Premier League title run-in last term, and he has played very few meaningful minutes for France. Whether you believe he would thrive on these stages or not, the reality is he hasn’t had the opportunity to, so there is nothing to point to as to whether or not he did.

The competition

Everyone’s shortlist for best centre-back will differ to a degree, but here are six names to compare him to.

Manchester City duo John Stones and Dias are reigning European champions and treble winners. The former spends most of his time in midfield nowadays, but partners with Dias on paper in one of the world’s most impressive defensive units. Joining that duo this season is Gvardiol, who had a tremendous World Cup with Croatia and is quickly finding his stride under Pep Guardiola. He has a pretty complete skill set which vaults him into this conversation — although he shares Saliba’s relative lack of experience to a degree.

Saturday’s El Clásico pitted Barcelona’s Ronald Araújo against Real Madrid’s David Alaba, who are both immense presences at the back. Araújo’s physical traits are off the charts, and he’s arguably an even better one-vs.-one defender than Saliba, but his passing and ball carrying are nowhere near as smooth. Meanwhile Alaba is about as smooth as they come (and has two Champions League winners’ medals to present in this debate), but he’s even weaker aerially than Saliba, averaging a paltry 47.3% aerial win rate since 2017, largely due to the fact he’s a 5-foot-11 converted left-back/central midfielder.

Alaba was moved to centre-back while at Bayern Munich and was one of — if not the — most important players during the 2020 Champions League-winning run under Hansi Flick. It has taken them a little while to recover from his exit in 2021, but they might well have found his replacement in Kim Min-Jae, signed this summer from Napoli.