The 2023 Asian Games in Hangzhou will (probably) not include the Indian football teams, after the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) opted against sending a team. The reason – failure to meet Sports Ministry’s criteria of being ranked among the Top 8 in Asia.

The All India Football Federation will appeal the decision, with Indian men’s football team head coach Igor Stimac also reaching out to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sports Minister Anurag Thakur to intervene in the matter.

The Indian men’s team is currently ranked 18th in Asia and 100th in the FIFA World Rankings after a successful couple of months that saw India lift the InterContinental Cup and the SAFF Championships at home.

With only 10 days to go until the draw for the 2023 Asian Games is made on July 27, the respective sporting authorities will have to make a quick decision if India are to make an appearance.

Here’s ESPN’s explainer on everything you need to know:

What exactly is the issue?

The Sports Ministry had already conveyed to member federations that “for team events, only those sports which have achieved a ranking up to eighth among participating countries of Asia in the last one year should be considered for participation in Asian Games.”

This is a continuation of their policy from the 2018 Asian Games, when the AIFF were denied the chance to send a team while being ranked 14th in Asia at that time.

Top 20 countries usually field teams in the Asian Games – which is an U-23 competition since 2002 – with India the lone holdout in 2018 and probably once more in 2023.

However, there is a way out as Sports Ministry also has a clause allowing for exceptions to it’s top-8 rule – “Where, in the opinion of the experts of specific sports disciplines, and that of Sports Authority of India, participation of individuals and teams in relaxation of the above criteria (top 8) is recommended with justifiable reasons, the same will be considered in the Ministry for appropriate decision.”

What is the argument in favour of sending the team?

Coach Stimac’s plea touched upon the fact that India’s team from the 2017 FIFA U-17 World Cup received great investment in their development, and “gave a great performance at the U-23 World Cup qualifiers and is one very talented team.”

Recent results from India’s trophy-winning performances – which feature members of the 2017 World Cup side – have raised the profile of the football in the country, and a good performance in the Asian Games can further add to the positivity surrounding Indian football at the moment.

What are the complications then?

For starters, AIFF President Kalyan Chaubey is also the acting CEO and joint-secretary of the IOA – which is a strange conflict of interest, in this case. Whether he will recuse himself from the decision-making process is not yet known.

There’s also the sporting aspect to consider. Given the Asian Games will take place in a non-FIFA international window during the club football season, Indian Super League clubs are under no obligation to release their players – which may lead to a compromised squad available to Stimac.

This is further complicated by the delayed AFC Asian Cup in January 2024, when clubs will be mandated to let their players go (without even mentioning Stimac’s demand for a four-week camp), thus furthering their reluctance to provide players in the September/October window.

Considering India’s recent record at the Asian Games (26/29 in 2014, 14/24 in 2010, 14/28 in 2006, 10/24 in 2002 | 8/8 in 1998, 9/11 in 2014 for the women’s team), there is the potential for embarrassment as well.

What about the women’s team?

There’s certainly no one involved in the women’s football setup in India who would turn their nose up at opportunities to get some game time. Especially since the Gold Cup that was supposed to take place in July/August of this year has barely been mentioned.

India do play their second round of 2024 Olympic Qualifiers (against Japan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam) on October 26, so the Asian Games appearance would serve as valuable preparation and game time.

Which is all the more crucial since AIFF’s technical committee has opted against retaining Thomas Dennerby (reportedly ignoring players’ wishes) and have recommended two-time IWL-winning coach, Anthony Andrews of Gokulam Kerala, as a new appointment.

Is there a monetary issue?

Probably not. If anything, the AIFF do have the financial wherewithal to pay their own way – including sending a team and staff for both men’s and women’s football.

If IOA do let the AIFF send teams, what will their makeup be?

The 2023 Asian Games will allow U-24 teams (players born on or after January 1, 1999) on account of the global pandemic postponing the event. Players like Dheeraj Singh, Anwar Ali, Akash Mishra, Asish Rai, Apuia, Jeakson Singh, Mahesh Singh have all featured for the national side recently and are eligible.

With three overage spots available, this could potentially allow Stimac to field a side very close to his regular first choice XI,

The women’s team are far more fortunate, with no age-restrictions in place, which would allow stars like Indumathi Kathiseran and captain Ashalata Devi to feature, although players in foreign clubs like Manisha Kalyan and Soumya Guguloth might not be released.

What is India’s history at the Asian Games in football?

India are the third-most successful team in Asian Games men’s football, winning gold twice (1951, 1960) and bronze once (1970). The women’s team have featured only twice in eight editions and have not stood on the podium.

India’s most recent appearance in 2014 (when their FIFA ranking was in the 150s) saw them finish 26th out of 29 teams in the men’s contest, while the women’s team finished 9th out of 11 teams.

How prestigious is the Asian Games when it comes to football?

The competition was a senior event until 1998, but its U-23 avatar since 2002 has been treated as a developmental competition. However, five-time gold medallists in men’s football, South Korea, are one of the few Asian giants to take it relatively seriously (Japan have only won it once), as winning the competition provides military exemptions to their players, as was the case in 2018 when Son Heung Min led his nation to a famous win.

However, most other nations do tend to send weaker sides, especially since clubs are reluctant to let players go mid-season. If India do field a strong side however, there is a chance for sporting glory for both the men’s and women’s teams – which is perhaps the crux of the AIFF and Stimac’s argument.

Time is running out however – and once the draw is made on July 27, India’s fate will be known one way or another.